Showing posts with label Eurovision Malta. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eurovision Malta. Show all posts

Tuesday, 18 March 2025

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Malta

 

Serving... - Miriana Conte

If you are looking for signs that the Apocalypse is coming, look no more! Malta is a sending a televote magnet for the first time in almost twenty years!

They have decided to adapt and opt for an entry that could have a chance in a 100% Public vote environment.


'Serving' is the definition of a guilty pleasure entry and Miriana is flirting with trash in a very clever way to sell the song perfectly. EBU's decision to not allow 'Kant' (the famous philosopher😏) on Eurovision stage could work in its favour with commentators mentioning the fact.

I am very intrigued to find out if Malta's "jury appeal" will apply in 'Serving' as well. There will be some public vote going to Malta's side but I do fear that Malta will be the televote magnet that will struggle the most to crack to the Top-10 of that constituency, especially with their track record.

Malta's only realistic ambition is to qualify to the Final for the first time since 2021 and I do think that they will succeed, but still do not consider them a 100% lock, again because of their traditional struggle with the public vote. 


What do I see in my crystal ball?

Malta barely qualifying to the Final (7th-10th) and then used as a filler between two stronger entries and go to sleep finishing 17th-23rd. 

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 3/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 4/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 26.5/50


What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Non qualification

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 40-75

F: J: 15-30 - PV: 25-50 - Tot: 40-80

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Can Malta blend their traditional Jury backing with a decent Public vote score to secure a spot in the Top-10?

You can hear my thoughts about Malta in the 3rd episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Monday, 29 April 2024

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Malta

 

First Thoughts:

There are a few entries every year that you know from the day they win their national final that their destiny (no pun intended) is predetermined.

'Loop' was chosen by a very abnormal 82% Jury - 18% Public vote system to represent Malta in a 100% Public vote Semi - Final...


Getting the opening slot makes little difference and Malta will be long forgotten by the time we reach Italy, Israel and Netherlands.

The only doable goal for this year would be to avoid the last place in the Semi - Final but even that is a tough ask.

Malta historically suffers with the Public vote and in a loaded Semi - Final like this one there is simply no way to find the points needed.

Maybe it is time to try a different approach next year.


Televoting Potential: 3/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 23/50


What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.0001%

Best case scenario:

Avoid last place in Semi - Final

Worst case scenario:

Last place in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 0-15


What do I see in my crystal ball?

Malta finishing last in Semi - Final with seven points...

Monday, 3 April 2023

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Malta

 

First Thoughts:

Eurovision is a contest where everything can happen, but having Malta qualifying to the Final from this Semi-Final would be one of the biggest surprises of all time.

Had they been in Semi-Final 2 they might have had a slim chance but being in the heavy weight one and performing at #2 is game over.


'Dance (our own party)' tries to stand out, borrowing bits and pieces from previous ESC entries but the result is very dubious.

Malta is heavily relying in juries to qualify and with them gone, Malta will fight to avoid the last place. 

The song feels amateurish compared to the competition and not in a positive way. 

I wish there were more to say about Malta, but I fail to picture a positive scenario in my head and my maths calculations where they can qualify...


It reminds me of...

Moldova '10, Lithuania '17


Televoting Potential: 4/10

Jury Potential: 5/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 1/10

My Opinion: 3/10

Total: 18/50


What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.0001% 

Best case scenario:

Avoid Bottom-3 in Semi-Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi-Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

Not to Qualify with a 90%+ certainty


What do I see in my crystal ball?

Malta fighting hard with Ireland to avoid the last place in the Semi-Final but fails to do so...

Saturday, 23 April 2022

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 6. Malta...It Is What It Is

Qualifying Record: 8/15 (9/15 if 50/50 is applied in 14'-15')

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/7 (5/7 see above)

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/14

Current Country Streak: 2 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 3 NQ