Once upon a time (4-5 weeks ago) Belgium was leading the odds to win Eurovision!
Red Sebastian had an easy task winning Eurosong 25 but competition will be tougher in May.
Belgium will be performing in Semi - Final 1 and the line-up that is shaping up implies that Belgium will have an arduous job to qualify first and then achieve a good result.
'Strobe Lights' is a good 90's techno inspired track that focuses on Red Sebastian's vocal abilities. The staging in Eurosong 25 was ok. My main objection is that there is not much of a song there and both constitutions can pick that up easily and ignore it.
There is a niche audience for this genre and there are better options in the Semi - Final and the whole line-up of the Contest, that could render 'Strobe Lights' irrelevant.
And this is where lies the other problem. Belgium, with the exception of Netherlands, does not have any strong allies in this Semi and could struggle getting high scores to reach the 45-50 points threshold that could secure qualification. It is the definition of a borderline entry that could go both ways. It is still sitting on my qualifiers list but that could change in a few weeks time.
If Red Sebastian qualifies to the Final, he does stand a chance to get some Jury love, mid-table to crack the Top-10, but would really need to grapple for some public vote points with all the packages that are on offer.
And do not forget that Belgium has a long history of being overhyped/overestimated both by the fans and the bookies
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Belgium struggling to qualify to the Final and then get snubbed by both constituencies finishing 15th-22nd.
Televoting Potential: 6/10
Jury Potential: 7/10
Staging Potential: 7.5/10
Momentum: 3/10
My Opinion: 5/10
Total: 28.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.1% - 0.2%
Best case scenario:
Top-10
Worst case scenario:
Non qualification
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 35-60
F: J: 30-50 - PV: 20-40 - Tot: 50-90
Share your thoughts in the comments area. Do you think Belgium has the potential to stand out in the Final? Is it a certain qualifier?
You can hear my thoughts about Belgium in the 2nd episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
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