And here we are again to talk about Montenegro's entry. Drama is the main ingredient of the Eurovision National Finals season and Montenegro had lots of it!
NeonoeN decided to withdraw from the Contest after a video was made public with them performing live version of their entry before the September 1st deadline, instead of waiting for EBU's approval, which 99% would have allowed them to participate.
'Dobrodošli' is a typical female Balkan ballad and Nina has a team behind her that knows how to stage an entry. The major red flag here is how do you sell a song in a 100% Public vote Semi-Final that finished 4th in its National Final that had some good entries but nothing outstanding?
Montenegro has by far the poorest track record in the Public vote since 2016.
In their last five attempts, they have accumulated just 107 points in total, an average of 21.4 points per Contest. Their best result in that span was back in 2017 when Slavko Kalezic finished 11th (PV only).
Things do get worse when someone realises that 74 out of these 107 points come from the other ex-Yugoslav Republics. Two of them are no longer participating and it is almost impossible to have the other three in the same Semi - Final with them.
The only Contest since 2016 that Montenegro received some Public vote points outside of the ex-Yugoslavian nations is 2017 when they were awarded points from nine different countries.
The good news is that Slovenia and Serbia managed to qualify last year, in a Semi- Final that had indeed three ex-Yugoslavian nations though. Montenegro will need a similar line-up, probably Albania as well, and a weak Semi - Final to have an actual chance to make it.
If they do make it to the Final though, the Juries could award some points as well to secure a mid-table result for Montenegro.
If there is one entry with a huge MUST over its head this year, that is Montenegro that must qualify at all costs, otherwise this might be their last participation for some time and this is a shame after the National Final that they have organised this year.
What do I see in my crystal ball?
For the moment, Montenegro is in the Non-qualifiers list and I will need a minimum of three countries out of the Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Albania group to start considering them a contender for the qualification.
Televoting Potential: 4.5/10
Jury Potential: 7/10
Staging Potential: 7/10
Momentum: 2/10
My Opinion: 6/10
Total: 26.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.001% or lower
Best case scenario:
Top-15 in the Final
Worst case scenario:
Bottom-3 in Semi-Final
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 20-45
F: J: 40-80 - PV: 20-40 - Tot: 60-120
Tell me about yourself
Montenegro has the worst qualification record of all participating countries with just two in twelve attempts. It holds the current non qualification streak record with five, with the last presence in the Final dating back to 2015.
Poor results in Semi - Finals as well with most of their entries finishing in Bottom-3.
Semi - Finals Public Votes Received (2016-2024)
'Amigos para siempre'...
Serbia 30 pts 3/3 - Slovenia 20 pts 3/3 - Croatia 6 pts 1/1
'We should go for a coffee never sometime'...
Poland/Cyprus/Czechia/Georgia/San Marino 0 pts 0/4
Estonia/France/Greece/Malta 0 pts 0/3
Netherlands/Latvia/Portugal/UK/Germany/Israel 0 pts 0/2
No comments:
Post a Comment