Has the time to end the non-qualification streak come? Azerbaijan is finally sending a competitive entry that might have some appeal to the Public vote.
'Run With U' is an up-tempo entry with some traditional elements that if performed/staged adequately could secure a spot in the Final.
The structural problem that the Azeri NQ entries had was that they were missing a call for action/they were very in the middle of the road. We might have a similar situation this year as well, but the good news for Azerbaijan is that they have their chance to showcase their quality on stage on a head to head battle versus Belgium, performing before them, and San Marino that is performing after them. If they can steal some of the spark of the other two entries, the ticket is theirs.
They are still a borderline entry but now leaning towards the qualification. If they make it to the Final, I do not expect anything ground-breaking but they could secure a mid-table score with the Juries to avoid finishing in the Bottom-5.
The good news for them is that after 2 non-competitive years they have shown some signs of life in Eurovision.
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Azerbaijan qualifying to the Final finishing 9th-10th and then grab 30-40 Jury points from friends and a few Public vote points from some neighbours to finish 19th-21st.
Televoting Potential: 7/10
Jury Potential: 7.5/10
Staging Potential: 7.5/10
Momentum: 5/10
My Opinion: 7.5/10
Total: 34.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.01% - 0.02%
Best case scenario:
Qualification for the Final
Worst case scenario:
Bottom-3 in Semi - Final
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 25-55
F: J: 25-50 - PV: 15-40 - Tot: 40-90
Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Azerbaijan hopeless for qualification or have we jumped the gun too fast?
You can hear my thoughts about Azerbaijan in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
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