One of the most anticlimactic national finals of the season where a very average entry won because of the total lack of any competition happened in Armenia.
'Survivor' feels like a Melfest reject from 10-15 years ago forgotten in G:son's old laptop that Armenia decided to buy on a clearance sale...
The song is lacking purpose, a call for action and melody and merit wise should not make the cut for the Final.
But...this is Armenia in the Semi - Final with the most friends/allies included and they start their campaign with 30-35 points in their pocket from just a handful of countries (Georgia, France, Greece, Israel) and need 15-20 more from the rest of the field to secure qualification.
Furthermore, they have the ideal running order slot at #5, the one that holds the best record of qualifications (PV only) for the first half in producers' era (15/22) and in 15/16 countries Semi - Final line-ups (7/9).
Coming after a sequence of weak entries as well will help their cause even more and for all these reasons, Armenia is a lock for the Final I reckon.
The Final is a different story and Armenia is ticking every box of an entry that will not stand a chance to do well with any of the two constituencies. Diaspora will be there to secure a result just out of the Bottom-5 and this is the realistic goal for them.
Armenia securing qualification and then getting lost/forgotten/used as a filler in the Final, finishing 18th thanks to their diaspora.
Televoting Potential: 6.5/10
Jury Potential: 4/10
Staging Potential: 5/10
Momentum: 5/10
My Opinion: 5/10
Total: 20.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.001% - 0.002%
Best case scenario:
17th-20th
Worst case scenario:
NQ
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 35-55
F: J: 20-35 - PV: 30-60 - Tot: 50-95
Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Armenia qualify as a result of their diaspora's and friends' support?
You can hear my thoughts about Poland in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
No comments:
Post a Comment