Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Armenia

 

Survivor - Parg

One of the most anticlimactic national finals of the season where a very average entry won because of the total lack of any competition happened in Armenia.

'Survivor' feels like a Melfest reject from 10-15 years ago forgotten in G:son's old laptop that Armenia decided to buy on a clearance sale...

The song is lacking purpose, a call for action and melody and merit wise should not make the cut for the Final.

But...this is Armenia in the Semi - Final with the most friends/allies included and they start their campaign with 30-35 points in their pocket from just a handful of countries (Georgia, France, Greece, Israel) and need 15-20 more from the rest of the field to secure qualification.

Furthermore, they have the ideal running order slot at #5, the one that holds the best record of qualifications (PV only)  for the first half in producers' era (15/22) and in 15/16 countries Semi - Final line-ups (7/9). 

Coming after a sequence of weak entries as well will help their cause even more and for all these reasons, Armenia is a lock for the Final I reckon.

The Final is a different story and Armenia is ticking every box of an entry that will not stand a chance to do well with any of the two constituencies. Diaspora will be there to secure a result just out of the Bottom-5 and this is the realistic goal for them.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Armenia securing qualification and then getting lost/forgotten/used as a filler in the Final, finishing 18th thanks to their diaspora.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 20.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.002%

Best case scenario:

17th-20th

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 35-55

F: J: 20-35 - PV: 30-60 - Tot: 50-95

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Armenia qualify as a result of their diaspora's and friends' support?

You can hear my thoughts about Armenia in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Armenia

 

First Thoughts:

Ladaniva have been among the biggest 'winners' of the pre-parties season.

An excellent choice from Armenia that will bring lots of energy on stage.

'Jako' is not a sophisticated song, it is made to come alive on stage and get the crowd going.

I don't know if it could reach the 'Trenuletul' levels of public vote but it is a locked Top-10 with that constituency.

Eurojury has also been kind to them so if these results get replicated next week, we might have a solid Top-10 candidate. 

The Semi - Final will not be a problem for them and remains to be seen who will do better between them and Greece that is also fishing in the same pond genre wise and also the same geographic area for the higher points.

I do think that a left-hand side result is almost certain and Armenia will have one of the wildest reactions from the crowd.

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8.5/10

Total: 41/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1-0.5%

Best case scenario:

Top-6/8

Worst case scenario:

14th-16th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 90-120

F: J: 30-90 - PV: 75-175 - Tot: 105-265

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Armenia sailing to the Final and then, depending on the running order, getting a result near the Top-10. 

9th-12th is where I currently have them. 

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Armenia

 

First Thoughts:

Armenia is the ultimate dark horse of the season.

It is the entry that has impressed me the most for this season, which is the reason why I left it for the end.

'Future Lover' grabs your attention from the first second and adds layer after layer to build up the tension.

Is the entry that has enormous potential if the staging is right, the only one this year that could give us a Jamala tree moment.

Coming from Semi - Final 2 and performing from slot #2 might be the reason Armenia is still flying under the radar.

It is an entry that will come alive on stage and its odds in all markets right now have considerable value.

I consider Armenia a solid Top-10 entry, a solid Top-3 in Semi - Final 2 and an outsider for the Top-4/5.

It reminds me of...

Australia '16, Armenia ' 14, 

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 41/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.5%- 2.5%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

9th-12th

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

100% to qualify, Top-2 in Semi - Final

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Armenia is my personal winner, so a biased alert is here. However I do think it has the potential to be Top-4/5 and if the perfect storm could even go higher. I do have it on my potential/possible/probable winner list...

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 1 - 17. Armenia...Snaps very often

 Qualifying Record: 10/13

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 4/10 for #17, 12/14 for the pimp slot

Current Country Streak: 2 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ for #17 and pimp slot