Let's have a look to the Semi - Final 1 line-up and what we should expect next week.
Disclaimer: I have seen some of the photos that EBU released for each entry but did not bother to read most of the descriptions on the official blog.
This is the stronger Semi - Final in my opinion, with four entries that could finish in the Public Vote Top-5 and two contenders.
The market suggests that the 10 qualifiers are already decided but I do have a feeling that this is an open Semi - Final where a case can be made for 14 entries, sorry Croatia, to qualify.
I will start my Power Rankings with a countdown to keep the suspense till the very end...
15. Croatia
Currently trading at 5.8 says it all. Will get a few points from Slovenia and maybe Switzerland where there is some diaspora and that's it.
One of the worst downgrades in the history of the Contest and a trying too hard effort to mimic 'Doomsday Blue' from a country that produced 'Rim Tim Tagi Dim'...
Projected points: 5-15
14. Belgium
There is an old Eurovision saying that goes like that: 'If you flop, flop hard' and Belgium has adopted this saying as its mantra for the last 20 years, having failed to qualify or finish very low in the final in despite trading in single digit odds in 4 cases and Red Sebastian could be the 5th...
An entry that peaked 4 months earlier, when there was no competition in the field, and gradually lost ground. Its qualifying odds are at 1.54 but my gut feeling says that Belgium has so many red flags to make it to the Final.
Projected points: 15-25
13. San Marino
A country that has another country's name on its title, a DJ on stage and no allies with the exception of Italy and a song that is 10 seconds long, extended to three minutes, is not a recipe for success...Currently trading at 1.77 to qualify makes no sense to me and I do reckon the odds will be reversed by next Monday.
Projected points: 15-25
12. Portugal
The longest qualifying odds for Semi - Final 1 at 6.2, suggest that Portugal is doomed. Most probably yes, but there is scenario that could send them to the Final and goes through the Portuguese diaspora in Switzerland, Belgium and some help from the Spanish neighbours. But in order to qualify, they will need 10s-12s from all three of them and the occasional 1s-3s here and there.
Highly improbable but not impossible.
Projected points: 25-40
11. Iceland
The last one that did not make it to my Top-10 mostly because of their running order, that is a huge disadvantage. However Vaeb have done anything in their power to boost their entry and their energy on the stage and their feel good vibes could be enough to steal a ticket.
Definitely one to watch out! I would be tempted to place a bet on them if their odds are at 3+.
Projected points: 35-50
10. Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan means business this year and they have a song that feels superior to Belgium and San Marino that will be performing before and after them. Stealing the spotlight from the other two is what they need to secure their spot in the Final.
Sometimes beauty lies in simplicity and Azerbaijan has a nice simple song that does the basics.
Trading at 2.46 to qualify is a value bet.
Projected points: 40-60
9. Slovenia
The one for the casuals and the older demographics. A song with substance, a strong performer and a stage gimmick to please the crowd. Is going under the radar for the whole season mostly because it is not the fans' cup of tea.
Trading at 2.90 I am more than happy to test the waters and see Slovenia qualifying to the Final (already in my book).
Projected points: 45-65
Pause...The odds for the 8 countries leading the qualifying market suggest that they should be considered almost 100% certain qualifiers, but I have a case against the country that I currently have next.
8. Norway
I do have a suspicion that 'Lighter' is very 'lightweight' for the gravitas of a Eurovision Semi - Final stacked with stronger Public vote magnets and performers with more experience and vocal abilities.
Running order is a plus, sandwiched between Portugal and Belgium but too close to Sweden and that might be a problem. If Iceland makes it, Norway will be the one out and I am more than happy to lay at 1.14 (have already a healthy position against Norway).
Projected points: 35-75
7. Cyprus
Cyprus has managed to be the talk of the town this week with people trying to find out what was the secret on stage and it turned out that Theo and his dancers create the shape of the Vitruvius man.
A solid effort from a country that has created a school of entries that shine on stage and achieve more than what was expected from them.
Projected points: 60-90
6. Poland
Justyna will celebrate her 30th anniversary of her first Eurovision entry by checking in her ticket for Saturday. If diaspora decides to show up to support one of their big names, I would not rule out a higher placing for them.
Sailing to the Final.
Projected points: 70-110
5. Ukraine
There are three certainties in life: death, taxes and Ukraine qualifying to the Eurovision Finals and this year there is no exception. Diaspora or friendly votes or both will be enough to boost Ukraine's score and remains to be seen how high they go on Saturday night.
Projected points: 90-120
4. Albania
Albania is heading for a great result and that is not a 'Sekret' (no pun intended). They will have a head to head battle against Netherlands, which is performing after them in the Semi -Final, for a spot in the Top-3 of the Semi.
Albania has a great opportunity to get some traction and hype after the Semi to work their way up in the Top-10 of the Final.
One to watch...
Projected points: 110-140
3. Netherlands
Ideal running order for an entry that is still flying under the radar and could surprise us all. Not expecting to win the Semi, but the contrast in genres between them and Sweden, Estonia could give them the traction they will need for Saturday.
Projected points: 120-150
2. Estonia
Is the market still sleeping on Estonia's chances for a Top-5 result in the Final, based on their high Televote score or have they sensed timely that 'Espresso Macchiato' is just a PR stunt?
I do expect a great result for them in Public vote, even though I am not a fan of the entry. The fact that fans do not like it, strengthens my conviction that Estonia will be a Public vote Top-2 on Saturday.
The buzz is not the same as it was last year for Joost though and that is something to keep in mind.
Projected points: 140-175
1. Sweden
There is not much to say here. KAJ are aiming for the win and topping the Semi - Final will only confirm that this is the stronger candidate to win the Public vote on Saturday and maybe the whole thing. Remains to be seen how big will their Televote score be.
Projected points: 160-185
This will be an interesting Semi - Final, with the majority of the entries being fast paced and with only two women performing in the whole line-up (Justyna/Poland, Beatrice/Albania).
Betting wise there are plenty of opportunities here and I do believe that at least two of the underdogs that trade over 2 will qualify in the end.
Let's see how much this ranking will be changed in a week's time.
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