Strobe in, Lighter out

 

The time has come to decide for my 10 finalists from Semi - Final 1. Like every year, reality/casuals/tangible info have kicked in and odds are different compared to last week.

There were a few tweaks compared to the Power Rankings from last week, with Belgium being the most important one. I am happy to own my mistakes/miscalculations and admit that Belgium has a solid Q entry, not sure about the mad price in the Winner's market.

The other change of mind since last week is switching Azerbaijan with Iceland now making the Top-10 cut. Azerbaijan failed to show up for a third year in a row and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish last in Semi - Final.

All in all a decent Semi - Final with 9 countries that I consider safe and then a group of 3 fighting for the last ticket.

So let's start digging!

1. Estonia

Oooops! I have a typo or maybe not. I think that Estonia will shine tonight with the casuals watching/hearing this for the first time. It could finish 2nd or 3rd for sure, but winning the Semi - Final sometimes is easier because of its size and special circumstances that always leave some space for some out of the blue results. Last year Armenia finished 3rd over Switzerland to get the picture. Israel and Netherlands in the same Semi were close to each other as well so having a country @1.23 and the other @9.2 does not make much sense and the value is obviously at the latter so Estonia @9.2 it is!

Projected points: 150-170

2. Sweden 

The big favourite. Great entry, lots of fun there! Will be a solid Top-2 Public vote entry in the Final but I do think the expectations have been a bit higher. It does a have a ceiling in the Public vote and the sky is not the limit. Could very well win tonight but their odds pose no value.

This is the time to check if their charting and views will continue in the post-Melfest trajectory. 

Projected points: 145-165

3. Netherlands

Nothing has changed from my prediction last week but this entry went through hell and fire the past week in social media and various markets, until last night that we saw the whole three minutes and all suspicions disappeared.

Claude is hands down the most charismatic performer in the '25 line-up and Netherlands are getting ready to launch in contender's trajectory. 

Top-3 in Semi - Final is currently @1.83 in the Exchange, I got matched @3s the previous days and obviously there is no value there now. 

One to watch for the after SF metrics.

Projected points: 120-140

4. Albania

My favourite entry of the year! They are in for a great result and expect big things from them, but the reaction was not the expected one. In Top-10 trajectory for the Final for sure but we need to wait for after tonight to see if it also clicks with the casuals like Shum did after its Semi - Final. 

Currently trading @2.2 for the Top-3 and it does have a decent chance to finish there but there is no value in that price. I do have it @2.75 in my book having a decent return hedging between Albania and Netherlands @2.75 and 3+. 

Projected points: 110-135

5. Poland

Give me a big name and some crazy visuals and diaspora will provide for you! Justyna has been shaky vocally yesterday but who cares! Juries hate Poland either way so why not go all in with the visuals to milk the Public vote? If Blanka managed to finish 3rd in the Semi - Final in '23 why not Justyna in the Top-5? 

Ps: for those having access to stoiximan in Greece and Cyprus, Poland to finish in the Sf-5 Top is trading at 3.75. ( I have topped up at that price after my initial position at 4.5)

Projected points: 80-110

6. Ukraine

The elephant in the room. You cannot under estimate their Public vote appeal and you have to consider them a powerhouse. I am not touching Ukraine in any market this year, at least not before Saturday.

That said...

Projected points: 70-90

7. Cyprus

An entry that was created for stage. A bit generic without a meaning? Yes, but the show is there and the pimp slot will do the rest. 

Sailing to the Final but not sure what and if it will  have any impact.

Projected points: 60-80

8. Slovenia

Happy for this one as it was clear from its National Final that this is an entry that will do well and not the fans' cup of tea. A sentimental entry that will touch many chords with Klemen and his wife on stage. 

My position is @2.67 and it's currently trading @1.90. Still value there now that we have seen the songs.

Projected points: 50-70

9. Belgium

The biggest improvement of the Semi -Final. Sailing to the Final as well with some impressive choreo, however it is not the masterpiece that many thing it is. It will get a boost from the Juries in the Final as well but there is too much competition for these PV points.

 Projected points: 50-70

10. Iceland

I had them 11th in my Power Rankings projection but I do think that they win the battle with Norway for the last ticket. Pure fun, lots of energy and an impressive Minecraft inspired staging will be enough for them to qualify. Currently trading @2.42...

Not a certain qualifier mostly because of the running order but we have seen crazier things happening. 

Projected points: 40-60

11. Norway

I had Norway's NQ in my book since its LEP appearance and never looked back. It can still qualify but trading as low as 1.15 and currently @1.22 is the value bet of this Semi. This is my biggest position with Slovenia and winning just one of these two bets will be enough for some decent returns tonight.

Projected points: 30-50

12. San Marino

It has been better than expected and I will not be surprised if they finally make the cut for the Final but this is more of an arena entry and the rooting for a different country in your song still feels funny. 

Still not sure where they will find the 50 points they will need...

Projected points: 25-45

Not much to comment for the remaining three entries that could potentially finish higher than the Bottom-3 but not anywhere near the qualification threshold.

13. Portugal

Projected points: 15-35

14. Croatia

Projected points: 10-30

15. Azerbaijan 

Projected points: 10-25

Betting Time

Like every yearI have 1000 units to invest, split in 100 units per Semi - Final and 800 units for the Final. The settled units from Semis could be used again in Semi 2 and/or Final. 

So my 100 units for Semi Final 1 will go to

Estonia To Win SF-1 @ 9.2 x 20 units

Norway NQ @ 5.22 (lay 1.22) x 50 units

Slovenia Q @ 1.90 x 30 units

Good luck to your bets and favourites tonight! Stay tuned tomorrow for a new episode of Talk About ESC/Things podcast with the SF-1 aftermath!

Eurovision 2025 - Semi Final 1 Power Rankings

 

It's almost six months since the first Eurovision entry was revealed and we have finally made it to Basel!

Let's have a look to the Semi - Final 1 line-up and what we should expect next week. 

Disclaimer: I have seen some of the photos that EBU released for each entry but did not bother to read most of the descriptions on the official blog.

This is the stronger Semi - Final in my opinion, with four entries that could finish in the Public Vote Top-5 and two contenders.

The market suggests that the 10 qualifiers are already decided but I do have a feeling that this is an open Semi - Final where a case can be made for 14 entries, sorry Croatia, to qualify.

I will start my Power Rankings with a countdown to keep the suspense till the very end...

15. Croatia

Currently trading at 5.8 says it all. Will get a few points from Slovenia and maybe Switzerland where there is some diaspora and that's it. 

One of the worst downgrades in the history of the Contest and a trying too hard effort to mimic 'Doomsday Blue' from a country that produced 'Rim Tim Tagi Dim'...

Projected points: 5-15

14. Belgium

There is an old Eurovision saying that goes like that: 'If you flop, flop hard' and Belgium has adopted this saying as its mantra for the last 20 years, having failed to qualify or finish very low in the final in despite trading in single digit odds in 4 cases and Red Sebastian could be the 5th...

An entry that peaked 4 months earlier, when there was no competition in the field, and gradually lost ground. Its qualifying odds are at 1.54 but my gut feeling says that Belgium has so many red flags to make it to the Final. 

Projected points: 15-25

13. San Marino

A country that has another country's name on its title, a DJ on stage and no allies with the exception of Italy and a song that is 10 seconds long, extended to three minutes, is not a recipe for success...Currently trading at 1.77 to qualify makes no sense to me and I do reckon the odds will be reversed by next Monday.

Projected points: 15-25

12. Portugal

The longest qualifying odds for Semi - Final 1 at 6.2, suggest that Portugal is doomed. Most probably yes, but there is scenario that could send them to the Final and goes through the Portuguese diaspora in Switzerland, Belgium and some help from the Spanish neighbours. But in order to qualify, they will need 10s-12s from all three of them and the occasional 1s-3s here and there.

Highly improbable but not impossible.

Projected points: 25-40

11. Iceland

The last one that did not make it to my Top-10 mostly because of their running order, that is a huge disadvantage. However Vaeb have done anything in their power to boost their entry and their energy on the stage and their feel good vibes could be enough to steal a ticket.

Definitely one to watch out! I would be tempted to place a bet on them if their odds are at 3+.

Projected points: 35-50

10. Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan means business this year and they have a song that feels superior to Belgium and San Marino that will be performing before and after them. Stealing the spotlight from the other two is what they need to secure their spot in the Final.

Sometimes beauty lies in simplicity and Azerbaijan has a nice simple song that does the basics.

Trading at 2.46 to qualify is a value bet.

Projected points: 40-60

9. Slovenia

The one for the casuals and the older demographics. A song with substance, a strong performer and a stage gimmick to please the crowd. Is going under the radar for the whole season mostly because it is not the fans' cup of tea. 

Trading at 2.90 I am more than happy to test the waters and see Slovenia qualifying to the Final (already in my book). 

Projected points: 45-65

Pause...The odds for the 8 countries leading the qualifying market suggest that they should be considered almost 100% certain qualifiers, but I have a case against the country that I currently have next.

8. Norway

I do have a suspicion that 'Lighter' is very 'lightweight' for the gravitas of a Eurovision Semi - Final stacked with stronger Public vote magnets and performers with more experience and vocal abilities. 

Running order is a plus, sandwiched between Portugal and Belgium but too close to Sweden and that might be a problem. If Iceland makes it, Norway will be the one out and I am more than happy to lay at 1.14 (have already a healthy position against Norway).

Projected points: 35-75

7. Cyprus

Cyprus has managed to be the talk of the town this week with people trying to find out what was the secret on stage and it turned out that Theo and his dancers create the shape of the Vitruvius man. 

A solid effort from a country that has created a school of entries that shine on stage and achieve more than what was expected from them.

Projected points: 60-90

6. Poland

Justyna will celebrate her 30th anniversary of her first Eurovision entry by checking in her ticket for Saturday. If diaspora decides to show up to support one of their big names, I would not rule out a higher placing for them.

Sailing to the Final.

Projected points: 70-110

5. Ukraine

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes and Ukraine qualifying to the Eurovision Finals and this year there is no exception. Diaspora or friendly votes or both will be enough to boost Ukraine's score and remains to be seen how high they go on Saturday night.

Projected points: 90-120

4. Albania

Albania is heading for a great result and that is not a 'Sekret' (no pun intended). They will have a head to head battle against Netherlands, which is performing after them in the Semi -Final, for a spot in the Top-3 of the Semi.

Albania has a great opportunity to get some traction and hype after the Semi to work their way up in the Top-10 of the Final. 

One to watch...

Projected points: 110-140

3. Netherlands

Ideal running order for an entry that is still flying under the radar and could surprise us all. Not expecting to win the Semi, but the contrast in genres between them and Sweden, Estonia could give them the traction they will need for Saturday. 

Projected points: 120-150

2. Estonia

Is the market still sleeping on Estonia's chances for a Top-5 result in the Final, based on their high Televote score or have they sensed timely that 'Espresso Macchiato' is just a PR stunt?

I do expect a great result for them in Public vote, even though I am not a fan of the entry. The fact that fans do not like it, strengthens my conviction that Estonia will be a Public vote Top-2 on Saturday.

The buzz is not the same as it was last year for Joost though and that is something to keep in mind.

Projected points: 140-175

1. Sweden

There is not much to say here. KAJ are aiming for the win and topping the Semi - Final will only confirm that this is the stronger candidate to win the Public vote on Saturday and maybe the whole thing. Remains to be seen how big will their Televote score be.

Projected points: 160-185

This will be an interesting Semi - Final, with the majority of the entries being fast paced and with only two women performing in the whole line-up (Justyna/Poland, Beatrice/Albania).

Betting wise there are plenty of opportunities here and I do believe that at least two of the underdogs that trade over 2 will qualify in the end.

Let's see how much this ranking will be changed in a week's time.