There were a few tweaks compared to the Power Rankings from last week, with Belgium being the most important one. I am happy to own my mistakes/miscalculations and admit that Belgium has a solid Q entry, not sure about the mad price in the Winner's market.
The other change of mind since last week is switching Azerbaijan with Iceland now making the Top-10 cut. Azerbaijan failed to show up for a third year in a row and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish last in Semi - Final.
All in all a decent Semi - Final with 9 countries that I consider safe and then a group of 3 fighting for the last ticket.
So let's start digging!
1. Estonia
Oooops! I have a typo or maybe not. I think that Estonia will shine tonight with the casuals watching/hearing this for the first time. It could finish 2nd or 3rd for sure, but winning the Semi - Final sometimes is easier because of its size and special circumstances that always leave some space for some out of the blue results. Last year Armenia finished 3rd over Switzerland to get the picture. Israel and Netherlands in the same Semi were close to each other as well so having a country @1.23 and the other @9.2 does not make much sense and the value is obviously at the latter so Estonia @9.2 it is!
Projected points: 150-170
2. Sweden
The big favourite. Great entry, lots of fun there! Will be a solid Top-2 Public vote entry in the Final but I do think the expectations have been a bit higher. It does a have a ceiling in the Public vote and the sky is not the limit. Could very well win tonight but their odds pose no value.
This is the time to check if their charting and views will continue in the post-Melfest trajectory.
Projected points: 145-165
3. Netherlands
Nothing has changed from my prediction last week but this entry went through hell and fire the past week in social media and various markets, until last night that we saw the whole three minutes and all suspicions disappeared.
Claude is hands down the most charismatic performer in the '25 line-up and Netherlands are getting ready to launch in contender's trajectory.
Top-3 in Semi - Final is currently @1.83 in the Exchange, I got matched @3s the previous days and obviously there is no value there now.
One to watch for the after SF metrics.
Projected points: 120-140
4. Albania
My favourite entry of the year! They are in for a great result and expect big things from them, but the reaction was not the expected one. In Top-10 trajectory for the Final for sure but we need to wait for after tonight to see if it also clicks with the casuals like Shum did after its Semi - Final.
Currently trading @2.2 for the Top-3 and it does have a decent chance to finish there but there is no value in that price. I do have it @2.75 in my book having a decent return hedging between Albania and Netherlands @2.75 and 3+.
Projected points: 110-135
5. Poland
Give me a big name and some crazy visuals and diaspora will provide for you! Justyna has been shaky vocally yesterday but who cares! Juries hate Poland either way so why not go all in with the visuals to milk the Public vote? If Blanka managed to finish 3rd in the Semi - Final in '23 why not Justyna in the Top-5?
Ps: for those having access to stoiximan in Greece and Cyprus, Poland to finish in the Sf-5 Top is trading at 3.75. ( I have topped up at that price after my initial position at 4.5)
Projected points: 80-110
6. Ukraine
The elephant in the room. You cannot under estimate their Public vote appeal and you have to consider them a powerhouse. I am not touching Ukraine in any market this year, at least not before Saturday.
That said...
Projected points: 70-90
7. Cyprus
An entry that was created for stage. A bit generic without a meaning? Yes, but the show is there and the pimp slot will do the rest.
Sailing to the Final but not sure what and if it will have any impact.
Projected points: 60-80
8. Slovenia
Happy for this one as it was clear from its National Final that this is an entry that will do well and not the fans' cup of tea. A sentimental entry that will touch many chords with Klemen and his wife on stage.
My position is @2.67 and it's currently trading @1.90. Still value there now that we have seen the songs.
Projected points: 50-70
9. Belgium
The biggest improvement of the Semi -Final. Sailing to the Final as well with some impressive choreo, however it is not the masterpiece that many thing it is. It will get a boost from the Juries in the Final as well but there is too much competition for these PV points.
Projected points: 50-70
10. Iceland
I had them 11th in my Power Rankings projection but I do think that they win the battle with Norway for the last ticket. Pure fun, lots of energy and an impressive Minecraft inspired staging will be enough for them to qualify. Currently trading @2.42...
Not a certain qualifier mostly because of the running order but we have seen crazier things happening.
Projected points: 40-60
11. Norway
I had Norway's NQ in my book since its LEP appearance and never looked back. It can still qualify but trading as low as 1.15 and currently @1.22 is the value bet of this Semi. This is my biggest position with Slovenia and winning just one of these two bets will be enough for some decent returns tonight.
Projected points: 30-50
12. San Marino
It has been better than expected and I will not be surprised if they finally make the cut for the Final but this is more of an arena entry and the rooting for a different country in your song still feels funny.
Still not sure where they will find the 50 points they will need...
Projected points: 25-45
Not much to comment for the remaining three entries that could potentially finish higher than the Bottom-3 but not anywhere near the qualification threshold.
13. Portugal
Projected points: 15-35
14. Croatia
Projected points: 10-30
15. Azerbaijan
Projected points: 10-25
Betting Time
Like every yearI have 1000 units to invest, split in 100 units per Semi - Final and 800 units for the Final. The settled units from Semis could be used again in Semi 2 and/or Final.
So my 100 units for Semi Final 1 will go to
Estonia To Win SF-1 @ 9.2 x 20 units
Norway NQ @ 5.22 (lay 1.22) x 50 units
Slovenia Q @ 1.90 x 30 units
Good luck to your bets and favourites tonight! Stay tuned tomorrow for a new episode of Talk About ESC/Things podcast with the SF-1 aftermath!
Estonia for top 3 seems like a safer bet to me.
ReplyDeleteI'm probably not going to do good on this sf1 qualification market, have a lot of Belgium to not qualify. Now the staging is better then expected, i still think the song sucks. I hope they don't qualify.
But i think i'm pretty good positioned over the whole event.