This is in my opinion a much weaker line-up with many downtempo entries, especially in the first half that could kill the flow and rhythm of the show.
The second part has the big televote magnets and that could make things interesting in terms of who will follow them to the Final.
In theory there are 13 countries fighting for the 10 tickets and only 6 of them should feel secure in my opinion.
You can find my Power Rankings for Semi - Final 1 here.
Grab your popcorn and have fun!
16. Georgia
This is the most doomed that we have had for some time in Eurovision. It goes so low under the radar that I have forgotten to write my early thoughts post about it, but I guess you get the picture.
A few points from fellow Armenians and maybe Greeks and sailing to finish last. Finishing 15th would be a shocker.
Projected points: 5-10
15. Montenegro
They have organised an excellent national final and everything went wrong from the moment the voting started back then. Nina is a great performer but this song is 20 years late in Eurovision and Montenegro will complete a full decade away from the Final. Tough but fair.
Projected points: 15-20
14. Latvia
I love Latvia's 'dare' to send an entry out of the ordinary in Eurovision but they have had at least three other entries that could have guaranteed them the qualification.
Performing at the first part of the first half makes their mission impossible. Laying at 2.38 does have some value and if still there next week I will be tempted to top up my position.
Projected points: 15-25
13. Ireland
Odds imply that Ireland is a borderline entry and a case could be made for them qualifying. Performing at #3 with an very lightweight entry is not my definition of qualifier even in a Public vote only Semi - Final.
There are stronger packages in the Semi - Final and someone has to be left out. If the odds drift further, over 3, I would be tempted to place a small value loss bet, but for the moment I leave that entry alone.
Projected points: 30-45
12. Greece
This might be a surprise for my fellow countrymen but from the day I first listened to 'Asteromata' I felt that this is an entry that will struggle in a televote only environment and I still feel the same way. Trying to tick boxes having in mind what we think that the Europeans might like is not the right approach and I worry that Greece will get lost performing after Austria and before Lithuania that have more quality slow tempo packages and then get completely forgotten by the time the Maltas, Israels, Finlands of this Semi perform.
Greece NQ at 3.63 is so far my biggest position in both Semi - Finals and I do see it as a win-win situation regardless of what will Greece do in the Semi - Final.
Projected points: 35-55
11. Denmark
This choice has puzzled me a lot. Denmark has not qualified for the Final since '19 and they have a decent chance to actually make it but Denmark being Denmark is what worries me. After a relatively successful Eurovision decade in the mid 00s-mid 10s, Denmark has pushed the reset button and never recovered since then.
The song is not bad but not great either and it will rely on other countries underperforming to grab a ticket for the Final. The definition of borderline.
Projected points: 40-55
10. Serbia
It is part of the yearly tradition for Serbia to suffer before qualifying, with most of their qualifications coming by finishing 8th-10th. However they have never finished lower than 11th in a Semi - Final.
A solid ballad that will be performing in the penultimate slot and with some good friends and diaspora in the Semi - Final should always be enough to send them in the Final.
Projected points: 45-60
9. Armenia
If there is one country that has so many friends in the same Semi - Final that is Armenia (Georgia, Greece, France, Israel) that could guarantee the necessary points for qualification. Can they get the few extra points to reach the qualifying threshold? I believe yes!
Currently trading at 2.44 to qualify there is some value there.
Projected points: 45-60
8. Luxembourg
Luxembourg is having a similar trajectory to last year. Decent entry that gets forgotten for some time and then manages to sail to the Final. The vocals might have been a concern temporarily but the staging and the USP can be enough to secure a spot for Saturday night.
Odds wise there is no much value there.
Projected points: 50-75
7. Czechia
I have not been the biggest fan of the Czechian entry not on a personal level but regarding its odds and potential.
I do believe that this is a 'lazy' attempt that does have an appeal to the fans but maybe not the public. This is the ideal candidate for a shocker non-qualifier and I have the NQ at 4.60 in my book.
One to watch out...
Projected points: 45-80
6. Australia
Had Australia been in the second half, they would have a chance to crack the Top-3, but opening the Semi - Final makes their task to reach the podium very difficult.
Sailing to the Final and maybe getting some traction for a Top-10 result.
Projected points: 60-90
5. Lithuania
Still going under the radar but Lithuania is a dark horse for a Top-10 result. The uniqueness of this entry could guarantee enough points to crack the Top-5 in the Semi - Final, currently at 2.45 in stoiximan for those residing in Greece and Cyprus.
Projected points: 70-100
4. Austria
One of the big favourites to win this year relying on its jury appeal. Televote only Semi-Final though is a different game and Austria could struggle to finish in Top-3 performing in the first half before the big televote magnets.
Laying at 1.34 is definitely a value bet regardless of the outcome and is already in my book.
Austria is one to watch out closely.
Projected points: 80-120
3. Finland
Not much to add here. Finland might struggle in the Final when Juries take over but finishing in Top-3 in the Semi with most of the other televote magnets in Semi - Final 1 feels doable. There is no value in odds whatsoever.
Finland will need all the hype they can get by finishing high in the Semi - Final to secure an optimal running order for the Final.
Projected points: 90-120
2. Malta
Has the time come for Malta to finally get a better score with the Public than with the Juries? Probably...Opening the second half after a long list of slow-tempo entries could boost their chances and give them a fighting chance to win the Semi as well.
Projected points: 110-140
1. Israel
Last year in the same Semi, from the same spot in the running order (#14) Israel managed to win the Semi - Final a few points ahead of Netherlands. The difference to this year? Israel's win last year was paying 25-30 times your money when now is at 1.74. No value there.
This is an open Semi for the moment but I do get the impression that things will be more clear by this time next week with some of the entries being left behind.
Projected points: 125-160
Photo: Alma Bengtsson/Corinne Cumming/Sarah Louise Bennet
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