Norway deserves my respect for what they have done this year in MGP.
They had a mediocre line-up but managed to upgrade the only half-decent song they had in the studio version into a most certain qualifier to the Final.
'Lighter' is a generic dance track that we have listened hundreds of times that somehow became serviceable thanks to Kyle Alessandro's charisma on stage. This is the type of entries that thrive in a Public vote only Semi-Final before they get completely lost in the Final.
I think that Norway is an almost certain qualifier, but they have not checked their ticket yet. If the latter happens though, I struggle to find a way Norway could avoid Bottom-5, with an entry that will be near the bottom with Juries and coming from a Public vote saturated region that has better packages to offer.
I would not be surprised if Norway could finish last for a second year in a row and that will be one of my fun bets when the market opens.
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Norway making it to the Final and then fight head to head with Spain to avoid the last place.
Televoting Potential: 7/10
Jury Potential: 2/10
Staging Potential: 6/10
Momentum: 5/10
My Opinion: 4/10
Total: 24/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.001% - 0.002%
Best case scenario:
Avoiding Bottom-3 in Final
Worst case scenario:
NQ
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 30-60
F: J: 5-15 - PV: 10-35 - Tot: 15-50
Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Norway a lock for the Final?
You can hear my thoughts about Norway in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
Indeed the last market can potentially have good opportunities in contrast to the overcowed winning market. Last year norway had 50 for last place before the final. A relevant podcast to cover this market would be very interesting :)
ReplyDeleteThere will be an episode for the other markets along the way. There is always a list of countries that if in Final could struggle to make an impact. Norway is the country with the most last places and with a packed Nordic-Baltic lineup are the ideal candidate to contend there
DeleteHi, who is your current top 10?
ReplyDeleteFrance, Sweden, Netherlands, Estonia, Israel, Albania, Ukraine are my locks and then Austria, Germany, Switzerland, Finland, Italy, Australia, Malta, Cyprus have a decent chance to grab the 3 remaining spots
DeleteAre those in order from most likely to less? So you think Estonia might get in top 5? From a betting perspective not all of those might make good bets. I think for top 10 France is a good bet it seems pretty much guaranteed to me, just like for winner market it is a good bet. But then if Austria is generally overvalued it is also for the top10 market. Say if it comes in 8 or something, then it was not such a lock as people thought. I find these eurovision markets quite interesting to bet on, but there is almost no liquidity. I hope it improves when the event starts. The only thing that has has still some liquidity is the winner market. Problem is if i lay countries that are guaranteed to not win, there is no return in that.
DeleteNo, just the locks and non locks. Estonia does have some legs for Top-5 I reckon
DeleteFrance, Sweden are probably top 5 locks imo. Maybe also Netherlands. But then i'm not that sure. Ukraine is Ukraine but their song is only very mid quality to me. I don't think it's anything wow. Israel should do quite good but i expect the jury to go against it. Finland and Czechia seem overvalued to me. Estonia probably could do good, eurovision fans seem to hate it. The argument i often hear is that Estonia is making a joke of eurovision song contest. But normies like it. Not as good as Sweden so it won't win but could be top 5. Maybe Albania? Also we have Austria but i do also think Austria is overvalued for winner and then also for top 5. It could make the top 5 but it's also priced like it will.
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