Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Germany

 

Baller - Abor & Tynna

An anti-climactic and super complicated national final that ended with the Germans opting for the most German entry of all.

'Baller' is the type of song that Germany should be sending to Eurovision more often, highlighting their clubbing/alternative music culture that could be their trademark and would be acknowledged both by jurors and the public.

This is an entry that could land anywhere and will rely on creating some hype during the Eurovision week to boost their chances. It will need  a different staging from the one they presented in the national final to avoid being blanked/downvoted by the Juries.

The make it or break it factor for Germany will be their public appeal. They do have an entry that deserves to be in the Public vote Top-10. Tynna has lots of charisma and the duo oozes authenticity which is highly appreciated and rewarded lately.

On the other hand, I would not be surprised if they fail to create some buzz and finish 22nd, but if I had to choose any of the two scenarios, I would be more confident for a Top-10 result. 

With a good running order in the Final and a great staging they could be the breath of fresh air and could fill in the gap between the televote magnets and the jury oriented entries. 

Germany might be the pleasant surprise of this year!

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Germany getting a mid-table result with the Juries and a Top-10 result with the Public vote to make it in the overall Top-10, finishing 8th-9th.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 36.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.3%

Best case scenario:

Top-5

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 20-75 - PV: 75-125 - Tot: 95-200

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Will Juries crash the German hopes for a Top-10 result? Could the Public vote be enough to secure it?

You can hear my thoughts about Germany in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Azerbaijan

 

Run With U - Mamagama

Has the time to end the non-qualification streak come? Azerbaijan is finally sending a competitive entry that might have some appeal to the Public vote.

'Run With U' is an up-tempo entry with some traditional elements that if performed/staged adequately could secure a spot in the Final.

The structural problem that the Azeri NQ entries had was that they were missing a call for action/they were very in the middle of the road. We might have a similar situation this year as well, but the good news for Azerbaijan is that they have their chance to showcase their quality on stage on a head to head battle versus Belgium, performing before them, and San Marino that is performing after them. If they can steal some of the spark of the other two entries, the ticket is theirs.

They are still a borderline entry but now leaning towards the qualification. If they make it to the Final, I do not expect anything ground-breaking but they could secure a mid-table score with the Juries to avoid finishing in the Bottom-5. 

The good news for them is that after 2 non-competitive years they have shown some signs of life in Eurovision.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Azerbaijan qualifying to the Final finishing 9th-10th and then grab 30-40 Jury points from friends and a few Public vote points from some neighbours to finish 19th-21st.

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 34.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Qualification for the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-55

F: J: 25-50 - PV: 15-40 - Tot: 40-90

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Azerbaijan hopeless for qualification or have we jumped the gun too fast?

You can hear my thoughts about Azerbaijan in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Iceland

 

RO'A - VÆB

Iceland is a country that loves creating streaks of qualifications and non-qualifications: 

'05-'07: NQ / '08-'14: Q / '15-'18: NQ / '19-'22: Q

'23-'24: NQ...

I do have a suspicion that the NQ streak might continue this year as well, with Iceland performing in the first half of the first Semi-Final along with the likes of Estonia, Sweden, Ukraine, Poland, countries that are destined to grab the majority of points.

Væb, aka the Icelandic Jedward, will try to bring their energy on stage with a happy dance along entry that would suit better Eurovision Junior or Ireland or both...

This is a potential opener for the Semi but I do fear that Iceland will get lost with so many stronger entries coming after them. They do have some friends (Sweden, Norway) that could guarantee 10-15 points but I struggle to see where they can find the rest of the 30-35 points needed for the qualification.

There is no target audience that would vote for this one, maybe with the exception of kids, but Sweden takes over that demographic as well.

Overall, this is a better entry than their previous two but still lacks the quality to secure qualification.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Iceland finishing 12th-14th in the Semi - Final. 

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 3/10

Total: 20.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Qualification for the Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 15-45

F: J: 0-10 - PV: 10-20 - Tot: 10-30

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Iceland a certain non-qualifier or still in the mix for qualification?

You can hear my thoughts about Iceland in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts

Spotify