Last week we had a first look to the hot favourites of this year and today I will close the list with the rest of the countries that are leading the market and share some early thoughts about a few sleepers.
Since last Monday, Malta has taken the lead because of Gjon's first live performance yesterday in a Spanish show that was underwhelming in general. The interesting thing is that Malta's price has not shorten a bit, is Switzerland's price that drifted. The other big winner of the week is our first country in today's post.
France 7.80
Another ambitious effort from France that has shown some signs of life in the last five years. Voila' is a very theatrical performance with many Edith Piaf elements and an Amelie themed last minute, trying to create an intimate atmosphere talking to the psyche of the viewer. France wants to win the whole thing.
Pros:
- The staging of the national final does create that intimacy and it plays well with the shadows. It looks like a finished product
- Barbara Pravi is delivering an amazing performance selling this song as much as possible.
Cons:
- Another jury magnet and the second among the favourites in French. The last time that a French language song was in Top-3 was back in 1993...and it was Switzerland...It would be a shocker to have two French songs in Top-5.
- The televoting appeal that France is missing. France was a Top-4 favourite at one point back in 16', 18' and 19'. All 3 times failed to finish in Top-5, ranking 9th, 17th and 18th respectively in PV. In 2011 it was the big favourite to win and finished 15th...
If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:
France 2008
Estonia 2018
France 2018
Fair Price: 12.00-15.00
Bet Value Price: I wouldn't personally touch France in prices below 20 given their track record and this year's field.
My humble opinion: I do understand why France is among the favourites but unfortunately it does not work for me. It gives me Estonia 2018 and France 2018 vibes: among the favourites, being the quality song that will stand out. The best term I would use to describe it though is 'pseudo' quality. It is a normal slightly repetitive song that tries to sell itself as something different. Not all viewers will be impressed. Would not be surprised if it landed 8th-12th
Lithuania 21.00
One of the big losers from last year's cancelation. Roop are coming back with a competitive disco-techno electro entry. Discoteque is a powerful song, but it falls short in comparison with On Fire. The group is trying to recreate the atmosphere from last year but that is not enough.
Pros:
- It's a finished product and we do know their vocal abilities.
Cons:
- The comparison with On Fire
- The appeal both on juries and PV. I can see it finishing in Top-10 with both, but I fail to see it reaching Top-5 in any of the two
If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:
Poor man's Belgium 2015
Fair Price: 60.00- 80.00
Bet Value Price: 100+ if after the jury vote is in or in reaching distance of Top-5.
My humble opinion: Lithuania 2020 was in the mix to win, and we will never know what would happen. Lithuania 2021 would be happy with a Top-10 and this is what I believe it will happen. 6th-12th is the most probable outcome.
Iceland 24.00
The biggest loser of last year! Everything was aligned for Iceland to win and then covid happened. Dadi is back with the almost impossible task to create a back-to-back winner song. 10 Years tries to recreate the hype that Talk About Things had but market did not react the way Iceland would hope. Another 80's revival entry, similar choreography to last year and probably the same suits. Can he do it?
Pros:
-Slick choreography and cool suits. For most of the viewers this is the first time that they will see the whole act and will attract some novelty and young votes.
- It has the potential to create some hype during the rehearsals
-Televote friendly
Cons:
- Uplifting but looks like it is missing the energy.
- Jury appeal is not there. Will get some ally points and some random 2-4s but won't be enough to keep it in contention after the jury votes.
If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:
Denmark 2018 - Norway 2019. Will continue the tradition of a Scandi song finishing in Top-5 with the Televoting but it will already be late because of the Juries.
Fair Price: 35.00-40.00
Bet Value Price: Over 60.00 if and only if will be able to get more than 175-200 points with the juries. Then it will still have a slim chance to win.
My humble opinion: Iceland could be the regulator in televoting and affect the results. Could possibly win in the 100% Televoting era but has very very slim chances with the current voting system.
These are the 8 songs that are leading the Winner's market. Like every year, we will have a few more songs that will come out of nowhere. There is always one that sneaks in the Top-5 and at least one that sneaks in the Top-10. I will keep an eye on the following countries, waiting to see their rehearsals
Russia 50.00 - Powerhouse with many allies and a song that could get some western votes enough to secure a Top-5 finishing
Moldova 65.00 - aka Russia 2.0 for the Russian allies to choose if they don't like Russia 1.0. Kirkorov's way of doing business.
Belgium 130.00 - Hooverphonic is a big brand name with its fans and the song has a radio quality. The live could bring this one in life.
Romania 65.00 - If it manages to avoid comparisons with Bulgaria and Billie Eilish. Great stage potential.
In the next few weeks, you will find a full report/preview for all the participants but that will happen after the reveal of the running order for the Semis.
In the meantime, I might post something more technical/ data driven.
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