Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Sweden

 

Bara Bada Bastu - KAJ

A Revolution happened indeed in Melfest '25 and KAJ will be the ones representing Sweden in Eurovision.

'Bara Bada Bastu' is the definition of a 'joke' entry tailored-made to have an appeal with all Eurovision demographics, being funny and slick enough to keep everyone happy and no-one  offended.

I do consider it a lock Top-2 with the Public vote, but I have not decided yet if it is the type of entry that could reach or surpass the 300 points threshold or it will have a Norway '19, Serbia '22 result. 

The main argument for my indecisiveness is that there many public vote magnets in its region (Finland, Estonia, even Norway) that would do not guarantee all the 12s and maybe some 10s there.

Additionally, I am not 100% certain that it will have the same appeal in some parts of Southern and Eastern Europe. It will get points there for sure but maybe not all will be top marks.

And finally, the most important reason of all. Sweden has branded themselves as a Jury oriented country and struggles traditionally with the Public. They have not received a single set of 12 Public vote points in the 20's despite having won and finished 4th in that span. 

For all these reasons a 250-290 points score feels closer to reality than a 325+ points score.

The hit or miss point for Sweden will be their jury appeal, where they will need to score a minimum of 175 points to keep themselves in contention without hoping for an abnormal Televote score.

The staging and vocals are there and jurors should be able to acknowledge and award them for that. They are a powerhouse as well and know all the tricks to get the points they need. The song is not divisive or aggressive to force jurors to blank them but there is still some uncertainty whether Juries will underestimate its artistic merit and treat it as joke that cannot award. 

I feel more comfortable estimating their Jury score in the 125-150 points region and I fear that this will not be enough to secure them the win.

They can still overperform with both constituencies but for the moment I prefer to take a more cautious approach.

I am 100% certain though that Sweden will finish in the Top-3 no matter what.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Sweden finishing Top-2 with the Public vote but coming a bit short with the Juries and finishing 3rd overall.

Televoting Potential: 9.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 9.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 43.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

10% - 20%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

4th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 140-175

F: J: 100-175 - PV: 225-300 - Tot: 325-475

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Sweden winning Eurovision the Finnish way?...

You can hear my thoughts about Sweden in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Sweden

 

First Thoughts:

Sweden is here once again to claim its usual Top-5 place. Things are slightly more difficult this year with them opening the Grand Final after the draw that happened a few days ago.

There is a change this year with the televoting lines opening from the start of the first song that could potentially reduce the handicap but Sweden has still a mountain to climb.

The host nation will be represented by two Norwegians, the safest way to secure its first televoting set of twelve points in the 20's! That's right! Sweden has not received a televoting set of twelve since '19, even though they have won last year and finished fourth the year before!

'Unforgettable' won Melfest in style and does provide one of the most impressive stagings we have seen in recent years. 

The main issue is the song itself. It is so lightweight that feels like a parody. There are some parts there that remind me of Faithless and the end is very Daft Punk but does fail to connect with the audience.

Melfest and the Swedish audience are two different fruits compared with the average European audience and the question here is if Sweden will continue to squeeze as many Jury points possible based on its staging excellency.

The Contest is heading for a more original, authentic and vulnerable direction but Sweden insists sending more formulaic and plasticky entries. 

If Juries reward them with the usual Top-5 spot, they will need a lower Top-10 score with the Televote as well to end up in Top-5.

I do think that Sweden might have just enough to secure a Top-10 spot but 6th-8th feels like the ceiling for this one. 

I do expect a Benjamin Ingrosso score with a lower Jury score and a bit higher Televote score. 

It reminds me of...

Sweden '17, '18 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 10/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 36/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-1%

Best case scenario:

Top-5

Worst case scenario:

13th-15th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

Final: Js: 100-200 - TV: 30-100 - Total: 130-300

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Sweden has not been my cup of cake for most part of the last decade, I do recognize thought their ability to create breathtaking stagings that captivate the jurors.

If the staging prevails, finishing 6th-8th feels like the right place for this one. I still think there is a chance to miss Top-10 because of its running order and the handicap that comes with it.

You can hear my thoughts about Sweden in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 06

spotify

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Sweden

 

First Thoughts:

The one to beat next month. 'Tattoo' is the song that turned Sweden into the hot favourite since it was presented in Heat 4 of the Melodifestivalen and since then they never looked back.

It deserves to be the favourite having in theory the easiest path for the win scoring something like 300 jury points and more or less 200 televoting points.

A minor concern will be the change of the Melodifestivalen staging with BBC vetoing the 1800kg toaster on the Eurovision stage and the Swedish delegation must improvise to change it with something lighter that has a similar effect.

I do respect Sweden's favouritism and ability to stage its entries, however I do the song more vulnerable than many people would like to admit.

It is a well-polished choreography from a very charismatic performer that on the other hand does not interact with the camera at all.

I do get the impression that Sweden is trying to create an artistic act for the shake of the art failing to deliver an authentic result which is the latest trend in Eurovision and the one that has kept Sweden away from a televoting result that would have been equivalent to the pre-Final odds for the whole 2016-2022 era.

There is a chance Sweden ends up 4th-6th in Televoting and in that case, they either need to secure 300 jury points or make sure that the countries over them, finish way lower in juries.

Sweden basically needs to find points in the areas outside the Nordic and Baltic countries where all its high scores are coming from. 

Still not 100% convinced that Sweden is the winner.

It reminds me of...

Poor man's Sweden '12

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8.5/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 41.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

25% - 30%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

Outside of Top-3

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

100% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Some people might call me biased but I am not convinced that Sweden will win. If they do so it will be more difficult than what people think. 

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 17. Sweden...wants to Hold (the Trophy) Closer...

 

Qualifying Record: 11/12

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 6/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 4/10 for #17

 10/14 for penultimate slot

Current Country Streak: 8 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 4. Sweden

 

4. Sweden

Qualifying Record: 10/11

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 5/5

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 5/12

Current Country Streak: 7 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 Q