Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Sweden

 

First Thoughts:

The one to beat next month. 'Tattoo' is the song that turned Sweden into the hot favourite since it was presented in Heat 4 of the Melodifestivalen and since then they never looked back.

It deserves to be the favourite having in theory the easiest path for the win scoring something like 300 jury points and more or less 200 televoting points.

A minor concern will be the change of the Melodifestivalen staging with BBC vetoing the 1800kg toaster on the Eurovision stage and the Swedish delegation must improvise to change it with something lighter that has a similar effect.

I do respect Sweden's favouritism and ability to stage its entries, however I do the song more vulnerable than many people would like to admit.

It is a well-polished choreography from a very charismatic performer that on the other hand does not interact with the camera at all.

I do get the impression that Sweden is trying to create an artistic act for the shake of the art failing to deliver an authentic result which is the latest trend in Eurovision and the one that has kept Sweden away from a televoting result that would have been equivalent to the pre-Final odds for the whole 2016-2022 era.

There is a chance Sweden ends up 4th-6th in Televoting and in that case, they either need to secure 300 jury points or make sure that the countries over them, finish way lower in juries.

Sweden basically needs to find points in the areas outside the Nordic and Baltic countries where all its high scores are coming from. 

Still not 100% convinced that Sweden is the winner.

It reminds me of...

Poor man's Sweden '12

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8.5/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 41.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

25% - 30%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

Outside of Top-3

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

100% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Some people might call me biased but I am not convinced that Sweden will win. If they do so it will be more difficult than what people think.