The guilty pleasure for 2023 is definitely Poland's 'Solo'.
Poland has the national final with the most upset victories and this year was not any different.
'Solo' is considered one of the lowest quality entries of all time and one of the main reasons that Semi - Final 2 will get a place in history for its poor results in the Final, however we should keep in mind a few things.
The song is a big hit in Poland since late 2022 and had enough support to send it to Eurovision. That means that the Polish diaspora could lift this one just enough to make it to the Final.
There Bottom-3/5 seems unavoidable, but qualifying is the realistic goal.
A month ago, I had this one written off as a non-qualifier but the facts that I mentioned above plus the very weak ensemble of this Semi-Final forced me to change my mind and now have it on my qualifiers list.
It reminds me of...
Moldova '21, Belarus '19,
Televoting Potential: 7.5/10
Jury Potential: 1/10
Staging Potential: 6.5/10
Momentum: 4/10
My Opinion: 4/10
Total: 23/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.001% - 0.01%
Best case scenario:
Qualify to the Final and avoid Bottom-3
Worst case scenario:
Fail to qualify
To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.
50%-60% chance to qualify
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Poland making it to the Final thanks to the diaspora and then avoiding Bottom-3 thanks to the 25-35 diaspora points from certain countries.
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