'Who The Hell is Edgar' is a case study of how the early '00s televote magnets would perform under the 50/50 system.
Qualifying to the Final will not be a problem, even though I doubt that they will win the Semi - Final.
The elephant in the room is how Austria will perform with the Juries and in that case, I am not overly optimistic.
Staging is an issue as well and everything points to a low Top-10 with Televoting (6th-12th) and a mid-table Jury result (12th-17th).
If the Televoting score is high enough, they might make it to the Top-10. I currently have them 11th-14th.
It reminds me of...
Denmark '21, Italy '17, Poland '14
Televoting Potential: 8.5/10
Jury Potential: 5/10
Staging Potential: 4/10
Momentum: 6/10
My Opinion: 6.5/10
Total: 30/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.003%.... - 0.3%
Best case scenario:
Top-6/8
Worst case scenario:
Right-hand side result in Final
To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.
80%+ chance to qualify
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Not sure that Austria will win the Semi - Final, might pay the price for being very vulnerable with the Juries and end up with a bad draw in either half (3rd-8th, 14th-18th).
The most vulnerable of the entries that are currently in Top-10 in odds to flop.
Marginally out of Top-10 is my current estimation.
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