Latvia along with Croatia are the two nations that have every right this year to blame their luck/EBU for being drawn in the wrong Semi-Final.
The change of rules was made to help those nations that have not qualified for a while to succeed, and Latvia instead is heading to a bloodbath.
'Aija' is a beautiful indie entry that offers diversity in terms of genres in Eurovision.
However, this is the wrong year and the wrong Semi-Final for that type of entries. The Semi Final is full of favourites and there are stronger slow tempo entries with a better history in the second half as well (Netherlands, Switzerland).
Latvia will be relying in quality and some points coming from the Nordic neighbours. Maybe a relatively good running order if EBU feels any guilt as well.
Would that be enough? Personally, I hope so but realistically they are an outsider. They will fight for the 10th spot with a group of other entries.
It reminds me of...
Slovenia '19, Latvia '19
Televoting Potential: 6.5/10
Jury Potential: 7.5/10
Staging Potential: 7/10
Momentum: 2.5/10
My Opinion: 7/10
Total: 30.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.001% - 0.1%
Best case scenario:
Qualify to the Final
Worst case scenario:
Bottom-3 in Semi-Final
To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...
40% to qualify
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Latvia is currently NQ for me but still has a chance to make it to the Final. If so, being one of the few jury magnets, could get a decent result in mid table. It will be harder for them to qualify than finish in Top-15 in the Final.
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