Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Latvia

 

Bur Man Laimi - Tautumeitas

If there is one country in the Eurovision '25 line-up that self-sabotaged themselves so badly that is Latvia.

They had at least three other songs that could have secured qualification and a decent result.

Instead they have decided to take the path of virtue that will not carry them too far...

'Bur Man Laimi' is a novelty/experimental entry based on the harmonies of the six girls but fails to grab the attention of the audience.

This is a song that is not competitive at all and is my favourite to finish last in the Semi - Final. Latvia's recent results point to that direction as well.

It is interesting to have this type of genres/entries in Eurovision but result-wise is counter productive as they have no impact on a 100% PV Semi - Final. 

This is a lost opportunity for Latvia to build on last year's result and create a qualifying streak instead of returning back to their introversion state.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Latvia, unfortunately, finishing last in the Semi - Final.

Televoting Potential: 3/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 26/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.003%

Best case scenario:

Qualification for the Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 10-35

F: J: 15-50 - PV: 5-20 - Tot: 20-70

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is there a qualification path for Latvia?

You can hear my thoughts about Latvia in the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Latvia

First Thoughts:

Has the time come for Latvia to finally return to the Final for the first time since 2016?

Luck was not on their side when the allocation draw happened a few months ago.

EBU tried to help by placing Latvia early on the second half to keep them as far away possible from the public vote magnets that are stuck in the closing of the Semi - Final.

'Hollow' was Latvia's best chance from Supernova's lineup and its music video and studio version are competent enough. It is an accessible power ballad that does have an audience.

The biggest problem has been the staging and Don's connection with the camera.

In theory the quality of the song should have been enough for the qualification but there is some tough competition with Denmark and Belgium fighting for the points coming from their common target group.

Current odds and polls are against it but for the moment it still has a chance to qualify but remains to be seen if it has enough on stage to take the attention away from Dons because he is not engaging enough with the camera.

I do have him on my qualifying list, but he could be the first one to miss out next week.

If they make it to the Final though, Latvia could achieve a mid-table result achieving a great score with the Juries that could propel them close to the Top-10.

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 35/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1-0.2%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 30-55

F: J: 50-150 - PV: 25-50 - Tot: 75-200

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Latvia is borderline that could go both ways. There is value on its current price to qualify but it needs many things to go its way.

Not written off yet but it will be tough.

 

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Latvia

 

First Thoughts:

Latvia along with Croatia are the two nations that have every right this year to blame their luck/EBU for being drawn in the wrong Semi-Final.

The change of rules was made to help those nations that have not qualified for a while to succeed, and Latvia instead is heading to a bloodbath.

'Aija' is a beautiful indie entry that offers diversity in terms of genres in Eurovision.

However, this is the wrong year and the wrong Semi-Final for that type of entries. The Semi Final is full of favourites and there are stronger slow tempo entries with a better history in the second half as well (Netherlands, Switzerland).

Latvia will be relying in quality and some points coming from the Nordic neighbours. Maybe a relatively good running order if EBU feels any guilt as well.

Would that be enough? Personally, I hope so but realistically they are an outsider. They will fight for the 10th spot with a group of other entries.

It reminds me of...

Slovenia '19, Latvia '19

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 2.5/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 30.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.1%

Best case scenario:

Qualify to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi-Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

40% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Latvia is currently NQ for me but still has a chance to make it to the Final. If so, being one of the few jury magnets, could get a decent result in mid table. It will be harder for them to qualify than finish in Top-15 in the Final.

Eurovision 2022 - Semi Final 1 - 2. Latvia...is now vegan!

 

2. Latvia

Qualifying Record: 5/16

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 2/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 3/14

Current Country Streak: 4 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 6 NQ