The elephant in the room is back and I do not believe we will have another Rai Semi-Final result leak to give us a heads up, but everyone knows now.
I do reckon that Israel got the memo from EBU and is sending an entry that is good enough to secure a Top-4/5 result but will struggle to find a path for the win.
'NDWR' is a classic ballad with a strong vocalist that has a strong story/narrative.
Any normal year this would have been an overall Top-10 entry with a Top-5/6 result with the Juries and a mid-table result with the Public.
However, we know that Juries will be very cautious with Israel, trying to balance their Public vote appeal. I do expect a better score than last year but I don't think the Jurors will go all the way so 60-80 points is what I expect. To have a path they will need a minimum of 175 points and that is almost impossible.
And now the million dollar question; how high will the Public vote score be? Last year they scored 300+ points in a very heated year, with a stronger entry and a clear incentive for the diaspora and supporters to vote and make a political statement.
Will the same thing happen again? There is a chance it could but I think 200-250 is what we should be expecting for them in best case scenario.
Last year they forced EBU to take measures and minimise as much as possible their impact in PV with the running order in the Final.
New policies and rules are in place as well to make sure this will not turn into another political battlefield.
Israel and Ukraine are the two no-goes for EBU and for that reason, Israel is a lock Top-4/7 but has no path for victory.
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Israel finishing Top-3 in the Semi-Final, then get a first half draw and finish 5th. Juries will be making sure they don't get a victory path.
Televoting Potential: 9.5/10
Jury Potential: 3/10
Staging Potential: 7.5/10
Momentum: 8/10
My Opinion: 7/10
Total: 35/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
1% - 3%
Best case scenario:
Top-3
Worst case scenario:
8th
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 120-160
F: J: 40-80 - PV: 150-250 - Tot: 190-330
Share your thoughts in the comments area. Will Juries give Israel a path for the win?
You can hear my thoughts about Israel in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
