Half of the countries participating (9) have a negative qualifying record in the 50/50 era ('16-'21).
Three of them will be performing on the first half: Finland, San Marino and Georgia.
San Marino and Finland have a momentum recently so the unlucky one here is Georgia that has four unsuccessful attempts to qualify to the Final.
The second half will be a battlefield including six countries with a negative qualifying record: Poland, Romania, North Macedonia, Ireland, Montenegro and Estonia.
This will be interesting...
Let's check now the current streaks and averages
Current Qualification Streak
1. Sweden 10 Qs
2. Cyprus 6 Qs
3. Israel 5 Qs
4. Serbia 3 Qs
5. Azerbaijan 2 Qs
6. San Marino 2 Qs
7. Malta 2 Qs
8. Belgium 1 Q
9. Finland 1 Q
10. Australia 1 NQ
11. North Macedonia 1 NQ
12. Czechia 1 NQ
13. Estonia 1 NQ
14. Ireland 2 NQs
15. Romania 3 NQs
16. Poland 3 NQs
17. Georgia 4 NQS
18. Montenegro 4 NQs
Qualification Record in 50/50 era (2016-2021)
1. Cyprus 5/5
2. Sweden - Israel 4/4
4. Albania - Serbia - Azerbaijan 4/5
7. Malta - Czechia - Belgium 3/5
10. Finland - San Marino - Poland - Estonia 2/5
14. Romania 1/4
15. Georgia - North Macedonia - Ireland 1/5
18. Montenegro 0/4
This is a SF that will have plenty of betting opportunities. The SF looks so weak in paper that will be equally exciting with SF1. Remember last year when we thought that the first SF was the strong one and we ended with seven songs from SF2 finishing on the left hand side of the scoreboard.
Average Total Ranking in 50/50 era (2016-2021)
1. Sweden 3.8
2. Israel 4
3. Australia 5.2
4. Cyprus 6
5. Azerbaijan 7.6
6. Malta 8.2
7. Belgium 8.2
8. Czechia 8.4
9. Serbia 9
10. Romania 10.5
11. Estonia 10.8
12. Poland 10.8
13. Finland 11.8
14. North Macedonia 12.2
15. San Marino 13
16. Georgia 13.6
17. Ireland 13.6
18. Montenegro 15.3
Average Jury Ranking in 50/50 era (2016-2021)
1. Sweden 3
2. Israel 3.8
3. Malta 3.8
4. Australia 4.6
5. Czechia 6
6. Cyprus 6.8
7. Azerbaijan 7.6
8. Belgium 8.6
9. Serbia 9
10. Romania 10.8
11. North Macedonia 12
12. Finland 12.2
13. Estonia 12.2
14. Georgia 12.8
15. Poland 13.2
16. Montenegro 13.3
17. San Marino 13.4
18. Ireland 13.8
Average Televoting Ranking in 50/50 era (2016-2021)
1. Cyprus 5.8
2. Sweden 6.5
3. Israel 7.3
4. Azerbaijan 7.6
5. Australia 8
6. Estonia 8
7. Poland 8.2
8. Serbia 9
9. Belgium 9.6
10. Finland 10
11. Romania 10.5
12. Czechia 11
13. Malta 11.4
14. San Marino 11.8
15. North Macedonia 11.8
16. Ireland 12.8
17. Georgia 13.6
18. Montenegro 14.5
Checking the splits, it is obvious that this is a juries-oriented SF. Malta and North Macedonia that were Jury winners in their SFs last year and '19, rank 13th and 15th in Televoting.
Australia that has won its SF twice ('16-'19) ranks just fifth as well.
History is not very indicative of what will happen this year, but stats last year got right 8/10 in SF1 and 6/10 in SF2.
The most interesting part of the national finals season is here with new songs revealed every other day from now on.
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