Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Norway

 

First Thoughts:

It was two weeks ago when Gåte appeared in Heat 2 and it became obvious that 'Ulveham' was the one for Norway.

It faced tough competition from KEiiNO but thanks to the 60/40 voting system that boosts the Televoting, they made it to Malmö. It would have been an own goal for Norway had they sent anyone else this year.

This is an entry with many folk/pagan elements that blend beautifully with the rock/metal sound and Gunnhild's voice. She offers an iconic moment during the choruses that could translate to televote points and there are the epic elements that recreate the Game of Thrones atmosphere.

The staging could use some minor changes, keeping the dark atmosphere there but add some extra light on Gunnhild's face to catch the emotions and establish a better connection with the audience.

I suspect that this will be the final package and remains to be seen the how this will appeal in the Eurovision field.

'Ulveham' is a gamble for Norway in terms of testing the waters as a hybrid genre. They did the correct thing by trying a new recipe and I do believe that a mid-table result could be the worst case scenario and it is a strong contender for a Top-10 result. 

Winning KEiiNO, having an ideal running order though, at Televoting was a good sign but there is some skepticism how well it could perform with Juries. 

My gut says it can do better than their recent entries that were hitting a wall at the 50 points threshold. The Televoting potential is there and remains to be seen how high they can go.

This is definitely not a contender for the win, but Top-10 is possible and we can take it for there. Qualification to the Final won't be a problem.

It reminds me of...

 Ukraine '21 (Q), Finland '21 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 43/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1-4%

Best case scenario:

Top-4/5

Worst case scenario:

15th-20th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 120-140

Final: Js: 75-150 - TV: 75-200 - Total: 150-350

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Norway qualifying easily and then reach Top-10, finishing 7th-9th. Personally I wanna see it higher and I do think that Top-5 can be achieved but we need to know the whole field first.