Call it perfect timing, I call it Divine!

 

Eurovision 2026 Grand Final: The Market Is Finally Cracking

Eurovision 2026 has saved all the drama for the very end.

A season that has been defined by Finland sitting at the top of the betting market since late January suddenly feels far more unstable than the odds are implying. Finland still lead the market, but momentum has shifted dramatically since Thursday night and especially after Friday’s jury rehearsal, with Australia and Bulgaria timing their surge perfectly.

And for the first time in months, this Contest genuinely feels open.

I do think we are heading towards an extremely close result tonight. Despite what the outright odds suggest, there are realistically four countries with a genuine winning path and the margin between victory and heartbreak could be razor-thin.

Australia Have Peaked At Exactly The Right Time

Australia have gained the momentum and Delta’s performance is simply operating on another level.

“Eclipse” feels like the complete package now. The vocals are flawless, the staging has scale without becoming chaotic and, most importantly, she looks like a winner on camera. Eurovision juries love credibility and star quality, and Australia suddenly have both in abundance.

I expect Australia to win the jury vote.

The key question is not whether they win it, but by how much.

If they land somewhere in the 250-point range with juries, the televote probably settles around 140-160 and suddenly things become dangerous. But if the juries really go all in and push them closer to 275 points, then we are talking about a potential 180-200 televote score as well.

There is almost always one entry every year that creates an unusual level of agreement between juries and televoters. This year, Australia feel like that entry.

And once that happens, they become the country everyone else has to chase.

Finland’s Winning Path Suddenly Looks Much Narrower

Finland are still leading the market and their pre-show metrics have been solid throughout the season, but their post-Semi dynamics simply do not scream “convincing Eurovision winner”.

There is also a risk that the perceived EBU favouritism ends up creating resistance among casual viewers rather than support.

I am still not fully convinced this is an entry that the wider Saturday-night audience will embrace heavily in the televote. That has been my concern for weeks and nothing during the live shows has really changed that feeling.

The biggest issue for Finland tonight is simple:

How close can they stay to Australia after the jury vote?

Because I always believed Finland’s route to victory relied on either winning the juries outright or staying extremely close to the top. Australia may have blocked that path entirely.

If Finland are sitting somewhere around 200-225 jury points, they could easily find themselves already 30-50 points behind Australia before televoting even begins.

And that is where the uphill battle starts.

Can Finland realistically finish 50+ points ahead of Australia in the televote while:

• Greece
• Israel
• Moldova
• Bulgaria
• Italy

are all competing for similar televote territory?

The Nordic and Baltic support will absolutely be there for Finland. But I am far less convinced about their access to the Eastern televote where diaspora and regional voting patterns could heavily fragment the scoreboard.

Right now, Finland feel more like a 5th-7th place televote entry than a runaway winner.

And that may simply not be enough.

Greece Remain Massively Underrated

Greece have had a fascinating week in the betting markets.

The odds halved on Monday, drifted again after the Semi-Final and have since pushed back out into the middle-to-high teens. But I still think the market is underestimating them because it has failed to properly account for one of the biggest structural changes in this year’s Contest:

The younger jurors.

The EBU’s attempt to bring jury and televote results closer together could significantly benefit entries with stronger emotional accessibility and broader modern appeal.

That matters enormously for Greece.

I still believe Greece will perform substantially better with juries than the market expects and I would not be surprised at all if they either win the televote outright or finish extremely close to the top.

Yes, the Balkan and Eastern bloc entries may dilute each other somewhat in the public vote. But Greece should still score heavily enough across multiple regions to remain fully competitive if the winning threshold lands somewhere around 430-450 points.

Maybe it is overthinking.
Maybe it is bias.

But Greece feel like a locked Top-3 result to me and if an opening appears tonight, they are absolutely capable of taking it.

If Greece hit 180+ jury points, then the game truly begins.

Bulgaria Have Become The Chaos Candidate

Bulgaria are the dark horse that exploded into contention on Wednesday and completely changed the complexion of this Final.

The staging elevated the entry several levels.
Dara has undeniable charisma.
The song works both East and West.
And crucially, it feels accessible to both juries and televoters.

That combination is rare.

Add an extremely favourable running order position and suddenly Bulgaria become the entry nobody wants to ignore anymore.

The market certainly noticed.

Seeing Bulgaria collapse from triple-digit odds earlier in the week into serious contention has been one of the defining betting stories of Eurovision 2026.

And honestly? I am glad I jumped on the bandwagon before the explosion happened.

One additional point worth noting: the voting reveal order strongly suggests that Bulgaria, Greece or potentially both could receive a late scoreboard push from countries like:

• Serbia
• Moldova
• Croatia
• Romania

That could create exactly the kind of dramatic momentum swing that changes perception during the live voting itself.

My Final Eurovision 2026 Predictions

1. Australia

Jury: 250-275
Televote: 180-200
Total: 430-475

Australia have the momentum, the jury appeal and the performance that feels biggest on television. If they win the juries clearly enough, the televote should naturally follow.

The last Eurovision winner to take fewer than 200 televote points was Austria last year in a far weaker field. Australia look much stronger than that profile.

2. Greece

Jury: 180-200
Televote: 225-250
Total: 405-450

If Greece get the jury respect I believe they will receive, then they become a genuine contender because the televote should already be there.

They are far more credible with juries than the market assumes.

3. Bulgaria

Jury: 180-200
Televote: 180-200
Total: 360-400

Could this be the shock winner?

A week ago Bulgaria were trading at absurd prices. Now they suddenly look capable of exploding across both voting groups. If the jury score lands near 200 points, everyone should start paying attention very quickly.

4. Finland

Jury: 190-210
Televote: 160-180
Total: 350-390

For most of the season, Finland always felt like one of two extremes:

• either a 500+ point landslide winner,
• or an entry finishing around 4th with 375 points.

I am leaning much more towards the second scenario now.

They can still absolutely win.
But there are now too many uncertainties to justify the current market position.

The Rest Of My Top-10

5. Israel

Jury: 50-60
Televote: 220-240
Total: 270-295

A huge televote score is coming, but I struggle to see enough jury support to truly contend unless they unexpectedly cross the 125-point jury mark.

6. Romania

Jury: 65-80
Televote: 130-145
Total: 195-225

Could comfortably finish Top-10.
Could also finish 11th.
One of the harder entries to price correctly.

7. Italy

Jury: 70-90
Televote: 120-135
Total: 190-225

Classic Italy. Strong enough to remain relevant everywhere without necessarily dominating anywhere.

8. Ukraine

Jury: 60-75
Televote: 130-145
Total: 190-220

Another reliable Ukrainian Top-10 result feels likely, although the Eastern televote congestion could suppress the ceiling slightly.

9. Moldova

Jury: 30-45
Televote: 150-170
Total: 180-215

One of my favourite positions of the season. I loved the Top-10 value from early April and still think it lands comfortably.

10. France

Jury: 125-140
Televote: 35-50
Total: 160-190

A disappointing rehearsal week overall. Monroe is excellent, but the staging once again feels like France never fully understood how to maximise the entry’s potential.

Top-10 is no longer guaranteed.

11. Denmark

Jury: 100-120
Televote: 35-50
Total: 135-170

Opposing Denmark for a Top-5 result has been one of my core positions since before Eurovision week started and I still believe the market overrated their ceiling throughout the season.

The jury support should still be respectable because of the professionalism and overall package quality, but I struggle to see where the televote explosion comes from in such a competitive Final.

The early Top-10 lays may end up being the cherry on top if the scoreboard becomes crowded around the middle positions.

12. Albania

Jury: 75-90
Televote: 60-75
Total: 135-165

Albania absolutely have a path towards the Top-10 if juries connect with the authenticity and emotional intensity of the performance.

The issue is that they are competing in a very congested area of the scoreboard where several Eastern and Balkan entries could end up cannibalising each other’s support.

Still, this feels like one of Albania’s strongest overall Eurovision packages in years and a Top-15 finish should be comfortably achievable.

13. Malta

Jury: 90-110
Televote: 10-20
Total: 100-130

Malta will always have a special place in my heart for the 2026 season — not because of the entry itself, but because of the market movement around it.

Their suspicious outright market support earlier in the season allowed me to offset a large part of my Finland exposure at very favourable prices. For that alone, I owe them my gratitude.

As for the result itself, this has “jury appreciation but televote rejection” written all over it.

14. Croatia

Jury: 45-60
Televote: 30-45
Total: 75-105

Croatia already overperformed expectations in the Semi-Final and simply reaching the Final feels like a success story in itself.

The song should collect enough regional support and scattered televote points to avoid disaster territory, but the overall ceiling feels limited in a packed Grand Final.

A lower mid-table result looks like the most realistic outcome.

15. Poland

Jury: 45-60
Televote: 30-40
Total: 75-100

Poland never truly generated momentum during Eurovision week and the staging did not elevate the entry enough to create serious upward movement.

There should still be enough diaspora and regional televote support to remain competitive around the middle of the scoreboard, but this lacks the broader crossover appeal needed for a higher finish.

16. Sweden

Jury: 50-65
Televote: 15-25
Total: 65-90

My biggest anti-market position of the season.

Sweden entered Eurovision week heavily overrated in my opinion and I have been aggressive both in the Top-10 and Top-15 lay markets. The overall package feels far too cold and anonymous to generate meaningful televote traction and I am not convinced the juries will rescue it enough either.

If Sweden miss the Top-10 entirely, it would not shock me whatsoever.

17. Czechia

Jury: 60-75
Televote: 0-10
Total: 60-85

Czechia feels like one of those entries that juries may reward for effort, structure and musical credibility while the public simply ignores it completely.

The televote ceiling looks extremely low and there is a genuine risk of single-digit public points tonight.

Without jury support, this could collapse very quickly.

18. Cyprus

Jury: 20-30
Televote: 35-45
Total: 55-75

Cyprus should benefit from enough regional and neighbour support to avoid the very bottom of the scoreboard, but there is very little evidence suggesting broader appeal outside that lane.

The staging helped somewhat, though not enough to transform the overall trajectory of the entry.

19. Serbia

Jury: 20-35
Televote: 20-30
Total: 40-65

Serbia may pick up scattered televote support across the Balkans, but this feels like another entry trapped in the congestion of similar regional voting patterns.

The jury potential also appears fairly limited, making it difficult to identify a realistic route towards a stronger result.

20. Lithuania

Jury: 10-20
Televote: 5-15
Total: 15-35

Lithuania never managed to create any real traction throughout Eurovision week and now look vulnerable to being swallowed by the scoreboard entirely.

Even the usual regional support may not be enough in such a competitive field.

21. Norway

Jury: 5-15
Televote: 10-20
Total: 15-35

Norway have felt disconnected from the Contest almost from the beginning of rehearsals.

There may still be enough televote goodwill to avoid absolute last place territory, but this looks like an entry that both voting groups simply failed to engage with emotionally.

22. Germany

Jury: 5-15
Televote: 0-10
Total: 5-25

Germany’s biggest issue is not necessarily that the entry is bad — it is that nothing about it feels memorable enough to survive in a Final this crowded.

When casual viewers are overwhelmed with stronger visual and emotional packages, entries like this tend to disappear very quickly.

23. United Kingdom

Jury: 0-10
Televote: 0-10
Total: 0-20

Another painful year for the UK appears to be on the horizon.

The performance lacks identity, the staging feels disconnected from the song and there is no obvious voting constituency ready to rescue it.

Avoiding the bottom three may already count as success.

24. Austria

Jury: 0-10
Televote: 0-5
Total: 0-15

Austria benefited enormously from the specific dynamics of last year’s Contest, but 2026 feels completely different.

This entry has struggled to generate any momentum whatsoever and now looks like one of the clearest candidates for a complete scoreboard collapse.

25. Belgium

Jury: 0-10
Televote: 0-5
Total: 0-15

Belgium have quietly become one of my favourite longshot positions for last place.

The performance never connected during rehearsals, the staging feels lifeless and there is virtually no evidence of either jury or televote support emerging.

Betting Time

Disagreeing with the market for a second consecutive year allowed me to structure things very differently and avoid becoming overexposed to a Finland victory scenario.

My key hedge positions were:

• Denmark Top-5 lay
• Sweden Top-10 lay

And the Sweden lay alone may already be enough to protect the outright market completely.

Outside the winner market, Moldova Top-10 and Albania Top-15 were probably my favourite early-week value positions.

But the real story has been Bulgaria.

Getting involved before the market correction with:

• Top-10
• Top-5
• Top-4
• Top-3

positions created some enormous upside and Top-10 alone now covers the overall Bulgarian exposure.

As for tonight’s outright positions:

• Australia to Win — 400 units @4.1
• Greece to Win — 50 units @17.5
• Bulgaria to Win — 50 units @16.5
• Bulgaria Top-4 — 300 units @3.4

If any of Australia, Greece or Bulgaria win tonight, this will comfortably become my most profitable Eurovision ever.

And honestly, after a season this chaotic, dramatic and unpredictable, that would feel very fitting.

Good luck with your bets tonight — and get ready for one of the most exciting Eurovision voting sequences we have had in years.

Bring It!

 

 The judgement day has finally arrived and tonight the big guns will have to put every card on the table. With Semi-Final 1 shaping up to be comfortably the weakest Semi of the last decade, the spotlight shifts almost entirely towards one question: who leaves tonight with the momentum — Greece or Finland?

For the first time in months, Finland’s grip at the top of the market looks slightly vulnerable.

Yesterday belonged to Greece.

The Greek delegation finally unveiled the full staging concept and the reaction across the arena, fandom and betting markets was immediate. Akylas and Fokas have delivered a performance that feels less like a Eurovision entry and more like a three-minute cinematic experience, divided into chapters and packed with visual moments.

The market reacted aggressively. Greece opened yesterday around 7.00 to win Eurovision, crashed into the 3.65 range during the evening and eventually stabilised around 4.00-4.20.

That kind of move is never accidental.

The key question now is whether Greece can fully steal the narrative tonight after the Semi-Final result. Momentum matters enormously in Eurovision betting and this feels like the first genuine attack on Finland’s long-standing position at the top.

Finland, to their credit, remain extremely solid. The performance works, the audience is fully engaged and they still possess the cleanest televote package in the competition. However, for the first time in three months, we have finally seen the market blink.

Finland drifted from the 2.10-2.20 region into 2.50-2.60 after rehearsals, a sign that traders are starting to question whether this is still a runaway favourite or simply the market leader in a very open year.

Thursday could complicate matters even further if France and Australia land properly.

The other major winner from yesterday was Moldova. The fandom has finally jumped on a train that sharp bettors boarded weeks ago. Moldova’s Top-10 odds have collapsed from the 3.25-3.50 range into 1.80 and that move feels entirely justified.

This has comfortably been my strongest pre-rehearsal position of the season.

The televote ceiling is massive and in a weak Semi-Final they suddenly have a realistic path towards a Top-3 finish tonight.

There will be plenty of time after the show to dissect the winners, losers and market overreactions, but for now it is time for the traditional Semi-Final 1 projection.

1. Greece

Jury: 110-125
Televote: 130-145
Total: 240-270

Akylas delivers vocally, Fokas once again proves why he remains one of Eurovision’s elite staging minds and Greece suddenly feels like the entry everyone will be talking about after tonight.

This is not simply “artsy” Eurovision. It is accessible, emotional and visually memorable while still offering enough sophistication for juries to reward it heavily.

The final minute in particular feels tailor-made for jury appeal.

The Semi draw is also favourable, with enough allies to support both voting components. Greece to win Semi-Final 1 around 4.10 looks like clear betting value.

2. Finland

Jury: 120-130
Televote: 100-110
Total: 220-240

No real concerns for Finland.

The performance lands exactly as expected and the crowd response remains huge. However, yesterday’s audience poll — where they surprisingly finished behind Moldova among a heavily western crowd — is at least worth monitoring.

Tonight’s scoreboard will tell us far more.

The issue from a betting perspective is purely price-related. Finland winning the Semi around 1.91 offers very little value considering the growing competition around them.

3. Moldova

Jury: 75-85
Televote: 120-130
Total: 195-215

Can Moldova overtake Israel and sneak into the Top-3?

I believe they can.

Israel traditionally overperforms in western televoting markets but their eastern support historically has not been nearly as dominant, opening the door for Moldova to capitalise in this specific Semi.

Moldova now looks extremely well positioned for a Top-10 finish in the Final and potentially even a Top-5 televote result overall.

Liquidity remains poor in the speciality markets, but anything above 2.50-2.75 for Moldova Top-3 tonight still looks playable.

4. Israel

Jury: 55-65
Televote: 105-115
Total: 160-180

The growing attempts to control or suppress Israel’s televote narrative feel mistimed and potentially counterproductive.

If anything, making Israel the central talking point only increases public mobilisation.

The more interesting question tonight concerns the juries. In a Semi-Final environment where qualification is relatively safe, jurors may feel freer to score this entry naturally without broader strategic considerations.

The Semi mix is not especially friendly though, which could leave Israel vulnerable to a lower-than-expected placement.

5. Croatia

Jury: 50-65
Televote: 80-100
Total: 130-165

This was an entry I was looking to oppose ever since Dora, but the delegation has improved steadily throughout the season.

The girls are performing better with every rehearsal and the staging adds the extra impact the package needed.

Qualification looks comfortable and the bigger question now is whether Croatia can build enough late momentum to threaten the Final Top-10.

6. Sweden

Jury: 70-80
Televote: 45-55
Total: 115-135

Sweden are fortunate to be competing in this particular Semi-Final because a stronger draw could have created genuine danger.

This entry feels heavily “Melodifestivalen-coded” — something that works domestically but loses impact on the Eurovision stage.

Felicia’s personal story resonates in Sweden, but internationally the styling choices, mask concept and dark staging create unnecessary barriers for viewers and juries alike.

The market has finally started adjusting. A Top-10 finish in the Final now feels increasingly unrealistic, especially with Finland and Denmark offering much stronger overall packages.

My average lay at 1.64 remains one of my best positions of the year. The market now trades around 2.08.

7. Poland

Jury: 65-75
Televote: 40-50
Total: 105-125

Potentially the biggest grower of the Semi.

My main concern pre-rehearsals was Poland’s historic jury weakness, particularly with a jury-oriented entry. However, the staging has elevated the package considerably and qualification now feels more likely than not.

Still not fully safe — but definitely moving towards qualification territory.

8. Serbia

Jury: 35-45
Televote: 50-60
Total: 85-105

We have officially entered the danger zone.

Serbia traditionally thrives in borderline qualification scenarios and there are enough regional connections here — particularly Croatia and Montenegro — to provide a foundation in the televote.

At the same time, this absolutely could miss out.

There may be slight value opposing Serbia, but this is not a market I am eager to attack.

9. Estonia

Jury: 45-55
Televote: 40-50
Total: 85-105

Another genuine coinflip.

The running order helps and credibility matters enormously in the chaotic second half of this Semi. Estonia at least feels professional and coherent, which could prove decisive.

Lithuania, Finland and Sweden also provide useful voting connections.

I backed Estonia pre-rehearsals above 2.50 and the market now trades around 3.20. The more interesting angle might actually be Top Baltic Entry at 6.00-7.00, which still retains value even if qualification is missed.

10. San Marino

Jury: 45-55
Televote: 40-50
Total: 85-105

Every second year I find myself chasing a San Marino qualification ticket. Previous attempts came in 2022 and 2024.

Could this finally be the year?

Pre-rehearsals I had San Marino dead last in my rankings, but the staging has transformed the entry entirely. Boy George’s involvement feels deliberately designed to generate commentator buzz and casual audience attention.

If San Marino can activate their traditional “jury dark arts” through countries like Greece, Montenegro and Italy, qualification around 4.70 is worth the gamble.

A bet I am always happy to lose.

11. Portugal

Jury: 45-55
Televote: 15-25
Total: 60-80

The return of juries to the Semi-Finals theoretically keeps Portugal alive, but I still struggle to construct a realistic qualification path.

This is an entry almost entirely dependent on jury support and even there, I am not convinced the ceiling is high enough. To qualify comfortably, Portugal probably needs a Top-5 or Top-6 jury result and I simply do not see enough standout moments for that to happen.

The televote outlook is weak, the running order does not help and the overall pace of the Semi could leave this entry completely exposed.

I would not be shocked if Portugal sneaks through, but from a betting perspective I cannot find any value in the current qualification price.

12. Lithuania

Jury: 25-35
Televote: 30-40
Total: 55-75

This is where the maths start becoming very uncomfortable.

Lithuania is traditionally a weak jury nation, lacks meaningful voting allies in this Semi outside Estonia and Poland and does not benefit from any significant diaspora presence tonight.

Then there is the performance itself.

Vocally, the jury rehearsal was reportedly rough and this is not the type of entry that can survive weak vocals in front of jurors. Add the alien-inspired styling and inaccessible presentation and suddenly the qualification price looks completely disconnected from reality.

Trading around 1.50 to qualify makes absolutely no sense to me.

Lithuania not to qualify at 3.00 is, in my opinion, the standout value bet of Semi-Final 1.

13. Montenegro

Jury: 20-30
Televote: 35-45
Total: 55-75

Can neighbours and hardcore fans drag Montenegro across the line?

Possibly — but I remain highly sceptical.

The delegation has staged this entry in an oddly aggressive way, trying so hard to create impact that they may have alienated both jurors and casual viewers in the process.

This feels like a classic fandom bubble entry. Eurovision fans may appreciate the chaos and intensity, but regular viewers often react very differently.

Tonight will be a fascinating test of how influential the fanbase really is in Semi-Final voting.

I have included Montenegro in several non-qualification combo bets alongside Belgium and Georgia.

14. Belgium

Jury: 30-45
Televote: 15-25
Total: 45-70

At this stage there is very little left to analyse.

Belgium simply never recovered from the rehearsal week and the entry now feels completely devoid of momentum. Neither the staging nor the live performance elevated the package and in a televote-heavy environment this becomes extremely dangerous.

The juries may throw a few respectable scores their way, but the televote ceiling looks alarmingly low.

There is still some value including Belgium in non-qualification combinations and that remains the only angle I would consider betting-wise.

15. Georgia

Jury: 10-25
Televote: 15-25
Total: 25-50

Georgia once again feels like a delegation that misunderstood the assignment entirely.

Almost every creative decision surrounding this entry has worked against its qualification chances. The staging lacks identity, the performance feels disconnected and there is no clear televote hook for casual viewers to latch onto.

In a stronger Semi this would have been completely dead on arrival and even in this weaker lineup it still looks comfortably headed for another non-qualification.

At this point, avoiding last place might be the more realistic objective.

Betting Time

If I was entering the market fresh today, these would be the three positions I would want in my book.

Greece to win SF1 — 25 units @ 4.10
San Marino to qualify — 25 units @ 4.70
Lithuania not to qualify — 50 units @ 3.00

As always, I will follow the traditional format of 100 units per Semi and 800 units reserved for the Final.

Good luck with your bets tonight and keep the conversation going on social media.

 

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Greece

 

'Asteromata' - Klavdia

The first Greek national final after a decade had no surprises and Klavdia will represent Greece with 'Asteromata', an ethnic ballad that talks about the uprooting of the Pontian Greeks a century ago from the Ottoman Empire. Klavdia is a Pontian herself and the song is an homage to her ancestors. 

In all fairness 'Asteromata' has been the strongest entry of the rather poor in quality Ethnikos Telikos. When I first listened to the studio version my first thought was that I totally get why the Greek audience and jury will opt for this option but at the same time I could totally see Greece flopping in the Semi - Final.

Klavdia is a strong vocalist but I find the song lacking the energy and passion that should have lifted it further. I get the impression that certain elements of the instrumentation were added without a purpose just for ticking the 'what the Europeans would want to listen to a Greek ethnic ballad' boxes. 

Greece will have some hard work to do regarding the staging. This will be the deciding factor between qualification and elimination. The market realised during the national final that the Greek odds were highly overestimated and there was a correction with Greece currently trading around 50 when it was trading  on high teens a week ago. 

My personal opinion is that Greece will be a borderline qualifier or non-qualifier and if in the Final a low mid-table result (15th-20th) would be fair. 

I will start with the good news. Greece will be performing in the first part of the 2nd Semi - Final, away from most of the public vote magnets that will be in the 1st Semi - Final. In theory this is the weakest of the Semis.

Greece needs a staging that will create a call for action that 'Asteromata' is lacking. It could be a powerful choreography or some visuals.

Now the bad news and my personal red flags. I will start with the numbers that they do not add up for Greece.

There are 3 solid allies in the Semi - Final (Armenia, Georgia, Serbia) that have a 100% of voting for Greece in Semi - Finals, however only Armenia steadily provides high scores. Australia and Germany in theory have Greek diasporas that could boost the Greek score but I wouldn't expect any high scores from them either.

There is a significant list of countries that is consistently not voting for  Greece in the Semi - Finals (Lithuania 0/3, Ireland 0/1, Austria 1/6, Latvia 1/4, Finland 1/5, Israel 1/3) and will be performing in the same Semi. 

Greece's public vote points in the '16-'24 era all come from the Balkans and the Caucasus region with the exception of '21 and '22 that were tailored-made entries for the Western audiences. The only Greek ethnic entry that managed to get some points from the West was 'Zari' last year.

This is the main reason why Greece barely makes the Public Vote Top-10 in the Semis, when they make it ('16:14th, '17:9th, '18:10th, '19:9th, '21:7th, '22:8th, '23:13th, '24:5th).

If the qualifying threshold is in the 40-45 points region, Greece has a chance. If the threshold moves above the 50 points things will get tough.

The running order will be another issue that Greece might need to tackle. Having Montenegro in the same half, with a slow tempo entry and its last qualification dating back in 2015, we have to assume that they will get a favourable #7 or #8 in the running order and that could leave Greece buried in #2 or #3...

Greece's only path for qualification goes through the votes that will come from the Western front and this is the main reason I am currently leaning towards a borderline non-qualification. 

Greece is not getting points from there recently or consistently. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Greece finishing 11th in the Semi - Final, missing the Final for 3-4 points. If somehow they make the cut, I expect a 15th-20h ranking. Finishing third in the International jury of the National final in a poor line-up is another red flag regarding the jury potential...

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 4/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 29/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% or lower

Best case scenario:

Left-hand side result in Final

Worst case scenario:

Non- qualification

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 30-45

F: J: 20-50 - PV: 25-35 - Tot: 45-85

Eurovision 2025 - Ethnikos Telikos 2025 - Preview

 

We are finally entering to the main part of the National Final's season and what a way to start the previews.

ERT is organising its first National Final in ten years and I was expecting a stronger line-up, given the interest regarding Eurovision from the Greek audience.

We are heading for a two horse race with a clear? favourite (Klavdia). Klavdia's 'Asteromata' is the song that currently is leading the odds @1.50, and also the views in ERT's official channel in Youtube. An ethnic ballad with many traditional influences and a dedicated national audience. From the first listen I recognised the reasons why the Greek public and Jury would vote for it. It has in theory most of the elements that the European audience and juries would look for in a Greek entry. 

Ethnic entries have indeed brought Greece's best result in the '00s and early '10s, boosted by the support of the Greek diaspora. However, two ethnic entries were responsible for Greece's first two non-qualifications back in 2016 and 2018. 

I do believe that 'Asteromata' fails to connect with the audience. It needs an amazing staging and charisma from Klavdia to lift it on stage. This is a jury bait entry and having Greece performing in the first half of the second Semi - Final in May, the same half with Montenegro that will be heavily backed from EBU and producers to qualify, might bring an early running order somewhere in the #2 - #4 area which is never great news for a slow tempo entry. Add Armenia, Australia, Latvia that are expected to have strong entries and will perform in the same half and Greece's chances for qualification might be in trouble. 

'Oneiro mou' back in 2018 had a far better running order in the Semi - Final, did manage to finish 10th in Public Vote, however only 11/53 points came from countries that will be in the same SF this year...

The only alternative option for Eurovision will be Evangelia's 'Vale'. Given the hype and Evangelia's efforts to represent Greece for some time, I would expect a stronger entry from her as well. Too many elements mixed together, with some of them working while others don't. Tries to be anthemic but a bit basic with a forced effort to have some ethnic elements in the end as well.

It could offer Greece an easier path to qualify to the Final, but it would get lost in the Final, scoring enough points with friends and allies to secure a low-mid table result. 

I do believe that Greece's achievable goal for Eurovision 2025 is to qualify and then avoid a Bottom-5 result. I do not prefer or endorse any of the two entries, I just state that 'Vale' might have an easier path to the Final but 'Asteromata' could have a better appeal with Juries and finish mid-table.

Moving to the National Final analysis, there will be a 50-25-25 (Public vote - National/International jury) voting system. Klavdia is considered the favourite for tonight because in theory, is leading the Public vote and the National jury. Evangelia, on the other side, could finish first or second with the Public vote but is expected to finish third or fourth with the Juries.

There are a few things that need to be taken in consideration though. First of all Greece has not had a NF for a while and there are no recent patterns or trends that could enlighten us. We can guess/estimate that the Greek jury will opt for Klavdia. 

We have no idea how the International jury will vote. They could go for the two favourites or add BARBZ to the mix. 

Things with the Public vote might be more complicated than people might think. The Final will be broadcasted the same time with three main sports events, reducing the percentage of potential voters and things could be more marginal.

Odds as well, could mean nothing and last year proved it spectacularly. Isaak was trading @27 in Germany, Sarah Bonnici @15 in Malta, Windows95man @10 in Finland, Hera Bjork @ 10 in Iceland, Bambie Thug @3.00 in Ireland, Nebulossa @12 in Spain etc.

All the odds mentioned above were  available the day of or during the National Finals. The odds are based on fan polls and the views but do not mean anything when the time of the voting starts.

In my opinion there are only two options when it comes to betting in National Finals:

a. Go for the underdog.

b. No bet.

Klavdia is the favourite to win, however there is no value in the available odds. I have taken a small bet on Evangelia @5.00 in Betfair Exchange and I do think that there is still value in odds over 3.00-3.50. 

Hopefully there will be more liquidity tomorrow but I wouldn't recommend high stakes.

Good luck to Greece and may the best song wins!!!

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Greece

 

First Thoughts:

It is always tough to write about Greece's entry being Greek myself but will try anyway. 

When ERT announced that Marina Satti will be the artist that will represent Greece I knew they were taking a risk, throwing a dice (=Zari).

Satti is the first 'big name' coming to Eurovision for Greece since Agathonas in 2013 and the reason I mention that is because I think that Zari was mostly made to bring the Greek diaspora back that was the main moving factor behind the Greek success back in the '00s.

Zari blends the Balkan tallava with the South American vibes, Bollywood rhymes and some trap to create a unique blend that could be perceived and it is very experimental but authentic as well. It is a party song that is made for the stage. 

It remains to be seen how the non Balkan ears will react to it and if they will like it enough to secure a Top-10 televote spot, maybe a bit higher.

The main concern is how and if Juries will accept this one. There is a very specific number of Juries that could award Zari ( Cyprus, Serbia, Moldova, Albania, Armenia, Georgia, Croatia, Azerbaijan, Israel) and I would not be surprised if Greece scores 0 points with all the other Juries.

Having that in mind, considering Greece among the contenders is more of  wishful thinking from the Greek media that found something to keep them busy for the next two months. Its odds are very short at the moment.

A Top-10 result is not out of the question if Greece could finish 7th or higher with the Televote and this  is a tough ask this packed year.

Personally, I am excited that Zari represents Greece  and I will be happy no matter what happens in May. 

It reminds me of...

Spain '08

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 39/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

.1%-1%

Best case scenario:

Top-6

Worst case scenario:

16th-20th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 75-100

Final: Js: 25-75 - TV: 75-200 - Total: 100-275

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Zari is made for the live show so we need to see if this one will blossom in May. Could go both ways and I choose to stay right in the middle with a 9th place.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Greece

 

First Thoughts:

Fun fact about Greece's artist: Victor Vernicos is the first Greek artist in Eurovision that was not born when Greece won back in 2005!

Greece has turned the page a few years ago and keeps digging for gold in artists that are not widely known by the public and media but have something to say with their music leaving behind the days of folk/stereotypical pop.

'What They Say' is not your typical Greek entry but I do not know if this is a good or a sad thing.

It could have been an entry that could participate in any of the Nordic national finals or any western European final and this is not a good thing neither.

The main problem in my view is that Victor is trying to oversell a song that does not suit his age.

Could the younger audience or the mothers buy it? If yes, Greece is sailing to the Final. The allies are there as well to guarantee 25-30 points and Greece has a good chance to make it.

The odds imply that they might be in danger and of course we need to see it on stage, but my gut says that we will see Greece on Saturday.

It reminds me of...

Spain '21, Estonia '21, Belgium '19

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 31/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.01%

Best case scenario:

Qualify to the Final and avoid Bottom-5

Worst case scenario:

Fail to qualify

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

60%-70% chance to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Greece will qualify to the Final and there they will be used as a filler sandwiched between two heavy favourites leading to near Bottom-5 result that will be avoided thanks to the 35-50 guaranteed points from friends and allies.

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 1 - 15. Greece...has some dark thoughts

 

Qualifying Record: 13/15

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 5/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 10/14

Current Country Streak: 2 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 2 - 4. Greece

 

4. Greece

Qualifying Record: 12/14

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 5/12

Current Country Streak: 1 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 Q