Eurovision 2023: The First Impression - Albania

 

First Thoughts:

I have not watched FiK so there are not many things I can say regarding Albina and Familja Kelmendi's win.

Duje is a typical Albanian/Balkan dirge that will have some appeal in the region and the Albanian diaspora. I guess that we will have the traditional revamp so it might be a bit early to judge this version, but it does seem a weaker entry compared to the ones that Albania has recently sent in the Contest.

Rallying 100% in diaspora and neighbours is its biggest problem though...North Macedonia and Montenegro which are responsible for the biggest chunk of points for Albania (1st and 5th respectively for the 2014-2022 period) are no longer here to give their support.

That means that Albania will need at least two of Italy, Greece, and Switzerland in its Semi-Final and/or a high score from the rest of the world televote to have some hopes for the Final. 

Albania will need approximately 55-60 points to secure the qualification and that could prove tricky with a bad running order as well. Slots #2 to #4 and #10 and #11 could kill their chances. 

Resuming, Duje is an entry that will depend on the Albanian diaspora and a good running order. I fail to see how they can reach the threshold having a minimal impact in western audiences.

It reminds me of...

Albania '07, '11, '19

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 28/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.10%

Best case scenario:

Marginal qualification and then finish 18th-22nd

Worst case scenario:

Fails to qualify and a Bottom-3 finish

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question

Not to Qualify 60%-70%

What do I see in my crystal ball?

A bad running order in the Semi - Final and a clear non qualification place and score.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression - Ukraine

First thoughts:

Tvorchi was my fourth or fifth favorite to win Vidbir 2023, but you never know with Ukraine...Maybe we have the first Vidbir winner since 2018 that will represent the country in Eurovision.

Heart of Steel is a typical host entry, where the broadcaster makes everything in their power to avoid winning again. 

If this were any other country's entry for this year, I would expect a result like the host entries from 2017 to 2021, Bottom-5 or near there. But we are talking about Ukraine which is still in war and has achieved an amazing result last year, mostly because of that. They currently have the biggest diaspora in Europe and many friends and allies that would show their support by voting for them in Televoting and Juries.

It is exceedingly early to tell how the situation in Ukraine will be in May and this is a deciding factor for Ukraine's performance regarding the amount of sympathy votes. Which brings us to the subject of this article...

Would you recognize Heart of Steel as the Ukrainian entry if you did not know the country it comes from? It is a contemporary entry, Ukraine has an amazing track record in staging and will have support from diaspora and friends, but this song has no winner vibes at all and no identity. The melody is rather forgettable, and a serious downgrade compared to the recent Ukrainian entries. It will seriously test the theory that Ukraine can win the contest again no matter what they send. 

Is Ukraine signaling that they are preparing for the next day? Are they opening themselves to the world showing that they have more than folklore songs? It looks like it. There were other entries that would do better with the sympathy vote and would play the 'we are in a war card' but public and jury have chosen the difficult path.

It reminds me of...

Belgium '22

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 10/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 39.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.5%-3%

Best case scenario:

Win if war is still on and high on the agenda

Worst case scenario:

Right hand side of the scoreboard if war is over and news have moved on

What do I see in my crystal ball?

5th-12th if the war is still on, 12th-20th if the war is over by May (I truly hope it does)

The one about the Voting changes and the Vidbir preview

 It was only last August when I shared some thoughts about the next Eurovision and one of my talking points was that a voting reform was needed, and I was somehow expecting it to happen. I was not surprised to see the viewers from non-participating countries earning the right to vote, it was a matter of time to happen especially now that more countries have withdrawn but going back to 100% televoting for the Semi-Finals was something that I would have never predicted, and the reason is quite simple.

EBU is not trying to solve the problem with rigged votes because that could have caused more withdrawals, they are just trying to win some time and make happy some of the countries that were struggling with the split votes.

But those of you that were following Eurovision back in the '00s will remember that there was another problem that will be coming back and that is the extra boost for the countries with diaspora (Lithuania, Romania, Poland, Ukraine, Greece, Serbia, Albania). Having two Semi-Finals instead of one like in the 2004-2007 and the allocation draw will smooth the problem a bit at least for a few years. 

The reason EBU goes back to that system is very simple. They are shuffling the deck to avoid having more withdrawals in the future especially in Eastern Europe. Had North Macedonia and Bulgaria known EBU's intentions, I am sure that they would think it twice before dropping out. Bosnia and Turkey could also be tempted to come back next year as well.

What do the voting changes mean for the Semi Finals?

It will be interesting to see if any of the national broadcasters will change the rules/format of their national final/selecting process.

ERT has already announced that they will be opting for a mix of a professional and a demoscopic 70-member jury.

NRK has also changed the format of MGP dropping the guaranteed places in the Final, the duals between artists and the second chance and will re-introduce an international jury in the Final.

We shall wait for more adaptations in the following weeks.

During the 2016-2022 split voting system era, in a total of 12 Semi-Finals, 18 songs were saved by the televoters and 14 were saved by the Juries. Countries with a poor qualifying record get a chance to risk more and achieve a better result. Some of them could get away with it and qualify to the Final, hopefully not dropping the quality level that could already drop because of the smaller number of participants. At the same time, the jury magnets will have their chance to shine if they can attract enough points to qualify to the Final.

Running order suddenly becomes very important, with countries performing in slots #2 to #4 being in serious trouble. Slot #2 has 1/12 qualifications and slots #3 and #4 have 4/12. You need to reach slot #5 to find a winner and some decent podium results. The jurors are not there anymore to support and balance things. 

In the second half, only slots #10 and #11 have a negative qualifying record (5/12 both) so a second half draw means an almost automatic qualification. Needless to say, the later the better.

I would be curious to see if any of the 'usual suspects' will try to sabotage its televoting and rely on a 100% jury result...

Vidbir at the end of the month: Have we heard the winner already?

Having heard the songs, there is one that clearly sticks out and that is Jerry Heil's 'When God Shut the Door'.

 Krut's ' Kolyskova' is the underdog and I struggle to find another entry that could win the whole thing.

The talking point for the second year in a row will be again if Ukraine can/will win again and once again the answer is that is too early to call it.

Judging from the two and a half minutes audio, WGSTD in a normal year could have been a 5th-12th song, but again this is not a normal year and Ukraine is not getting the points based on meritocracy.

The war will be the main factor and assuming that hostilities will still be happening, Ukraine will still have the public's support. No one can predict if it will be in the same scale as last year, but let's not forget that Ukrainian diaspora exists throughout Europe and could single handedly secure the Televoting win. There are some friends and allies that will also support Ukraine and Juries again will be the turning point. 

Politics could secure a minimum of 100 Jury points and Ukraine starts the voting with a minimum of 350-400 points looking for the extra 100-150 points that will secure their win.

The Ukrainian win is currently trading @3.30 and has taken 73% of the total sum invested so far. The odds obviously are wrong for this time of the year and will not change my approach compared to last year.

Winner or not, Ukraine's unique situation creates opportunities elsewhere and the best time to invest on them will once again be during the first half of the Jury voting. Until them, I am bracing myself to see those 1.40-2.00 odds available after March...

Eurovision season is around the corner and posts will be posted more often from now on. 

Let's hope we will have a great year!

Eurovision 2022: The perfect storm or the beginning of a new trend?

 This is a post I have written and re-written multiple times in my mind since last May, but I was always leaving the task for later, waiting for the dust to settle a bit and find the energy to write my thoughts and do my stocktaking.

The elephant in the room...

Let's start with the elephant in the room. I was one of the many Eurovision bloggers that failed to predict the Ukrainian win, even though I never said that it could not happen. 

Back in March, one of my first posts for the season was named The Eurovision year that will live in infamy I gave my reasoning there why I thought that Ukraine would not win the Contest. 

People will argue that Ukraine was the obvious choice, and it is funny how most if not all the professional Eurovision punters missed it. 

I can talk for myself and the answer is rather simple: The betting odds were wrong for the most part of the season. I was not discounting Ukraine to win; I was simply not finding any value at the Ukrainian price and at that moment or to be precise at any moment until the Jury voting started. 

My betting mantra is ' Do not place money on a bet unless there is some value there'. I am very happy to take a bet that I will not win but the odds are in my favour, instead of taking a bet that will pay off but not at the right price. 

And the Ukraine price had only an exceedingly small window of opportunity pre-voting: Pre-Vidbir when Alina Pash was the favourite and was trading in double digits and for a few days when Kalush was announced, and the price drifted to 15-20s. 

If someone bought Ukraine at that point, then hats off from me. The rest of the Ukraine backers made money but, on a discount, given the information that was available at that time.  

The great call that I made at that time was not to lay Ukraine even though the price was really short.

Analysis wise, my call was 100% wrong. Eurovision winner is always about emotions. The song that will make you feel the most powerful sentiments is the one that wins. 

Stefania was already emotionally charged because of the war situation and people would already be connected. UK and Spain that finished second and third, both had great staging, but the context was far off. 

Sweden failed to connect the viewers and Italy, which could compete with Ukraine, got lost for several reasons (RAI sabotaging a second win, the three-minute version not feeling polished, artists focused on their personal projects etc). 

The other bad call on my behalf was the reading of the running order, thinking that was still game on.

Regarding the running order, I am still confused that producers/EBU gave Ukraine #12, keeping in mind that they want to produce a show that will keep the suspense till the very end. 

Ukraine would have won performing at any slot, so why not giving them an earlier one to have a smaller winning margin and keep the tension until the last score revealed?

First, kudos to EBU for playing the game fair and square, not trying to hurt Ukraine's chances. My guess is that after seeing the Semi-Final result, where Ukraine struggled with the Juries (135pts-3rd), EBU thought that the Final's result is still open and having no metrics for UK, Spain, and Italy, decided to give Ukraine the treatment that a Semi-Final winner would get. They just tried to lower the televoting impact by placing all the televoting magnets close to them.

Ukraine's televoting score is jaw dropping and never saw it coming, but that is the fate of someone that relies on numbers and works with averages. There will always be a black swan.

Betting wise, there were multiple ways for someone to make a profit this year, without touching Ukraine, or touching it during the voting. 

It was in fact a year that someone could get paid for three different winners during the voting and make some good money. 

Patience is a virtue, and it does pay off when betting at Eurovision. My theory since early March when the Ukrainian price dropped to 1.90-2.50 was that there will be a small window of opportunity during the Jury voting where Ukraine will be trailing, and the price will drift. 

The same thing happened last year with Italy as well, when the 2.60-2.80 suddenly became 4.00-5.00.

Ukraine was trading at 3.00-3.50 during the first ten-twelve countries and I managed to cover any losses in the winner's market. I have made a small profit as well.

The second option that could guarantee a great return was laying Spain and UK. Spain shortened from 20+ to 2.50-2.80, more or less six to eight times your money and UK from 11.00 to 3.00-3.50, giving you back three times your money. 

I made a bad call there keeping all my Spain and UK positions put aiming for the big money after I have secured that there will be no loss in that market and my overall book for the year. 

Had I had the chance to act again. I would have closed my positions and would be celebrating with my great profits.

The third option was to avoid the winner's market completely and focus on other markets instead of betting Ukraine at 1.35-1.45 when you could have UK for Top-4 at 1.70-1.90, Spain for Top-4 at 2.40-2.60, not to mention investing in these countries earlier in the season.

The Ukraine situation made me more cautious, and I have opted to invest more money in Top-4/5/10 than I would usually do. 

My point is there were tens of available odds that were higher than Ukraine's win and were equally if not more probable at the time.

Overall, it could have been a momentous year for my bets, but I risked a bit more after I made sure that I wouldn't lose any money this year.

The question marks for 2023...

There are many things that happened this year and signal the end of an era for the Contest. Ukraine's win might have been the result that most part of the Europe hoped for but has opened pandora's box for Eurovision.

Are politics back for good?

To be honest politics were always present in the Contest, at least in certain areas (East Europe, Balkans) but last May the whole continent went all in. I really hope that the Contest will not turn to a politics/diplomacy tool for countries or political parties.

Ukraine will be present in 2023. I hope and wish that the war will be over by next May, but what happens if they are still in war? Will people vote for them again?

I truly hope that we will not have to answer that question when the Eurovision season starts.

Will UK's hosting somehow impact its chances to win if it has an exceptionally good song?

Giving the chance to the runner up to host was the obvious choice and BBC is one of the few broadcasters that would not mind hosting again in 2024, but could that hurt their chance to win? 

It could go both ways, but I would have preferred a country which has a poor recent record or has been trying for years without being able to win to host and let the heavy guns win it to host.

Germany, France, Malta, or Cyprus would have been better options in my opinion.

Will EBU do something about the voting scandal in Semi-Final 2? Should there be a disciplinary code agreed and voted by the Broadcasters?

This is the most troubling matter of all. It has happened in the past and is happening every year with certain countries that get away with it, but that was just too much. I am still in shock that Malta was not involved in this. 

The problem is that if EBU decides to take any measures at all, there is the danger of massive withdrawals that would leave the Contest with not enough countries to have two Semi-Finals and the most important one with less funding and less viewers. 

There are ways to 'subtly' punish a country for wrongdoings but making everything public did not go well with those broadcasters. 

Having already missed Turkey, Bosnia, Russia, Belarus, we are getting closer to the day that the Semi-Finals will have 13-14 participants each bringing the quality level down.

However, letting someone get away with it will encourage more countries to do some monkey business.

Swapping a Jury with an algorithm does not work either, giving extra power to certain jurors that ended up voting and representing more than one country. 

A point deduction (10/20% of the Jury points?) or a ranking penalty (missing a place or two) for the current contest would make Broadcasters think twice before getting involved.

There is a better option to avoid the whole problem though and it brings the next question.

Is it time for a new voting system or a voting reform?

EBU likes to reshuffle the voting system every few years (2004, 2008, 2009, 2016). The split voting works better than the previous formats for sure but there is room for improvement.

There is nothing that could be done with Televoting, changing the 50/50 split to 60/40 or something similar would be a headache and would give a boost to the countries that have diasporas again and that leaves the Juries...

Having a 5-member Jury decided by the Broadcasters is the main source of the lobbying problem.

A 10/12/15-member Jury would reduce the impact of each juror's score to the overall result and would give a more balanced result and that would be the first step. 

To avoid using an algorithm, EBU could either appoint a replacement Jury for each country that would be used in case of an irregular voting pattern or could appoint half of the members of each Jury. 

Will the gap and discrepancies between Juries and Televoting will get bigger, or has the trend ended?

The last Jury Winner that won Eurovision is Portugal in 2017 and the last and only Jury Winner that won despite losing the Televoting is Sweden 2015 (if 50/50 system is applied).

The last four Winners finished third (Israel '18, Netherlands '19) and fourth (Italy '21, Ukraine '22). Add Ukraine '16 that finished second and Portugal is the only Jury Winner that won in the last six Contests (1/6), when 6 out of 7 Jury Winners won in the 2009-2015 era...

Having a Winner that finished fifth with the Juries seems more probable now than having a universal Winner...

My 2022 retrospective resolution...

What would I keep:

- My Semi-Final 1 analysis and tips . 9/10 correct qualifiers and 3/4 successful tips, with Albania non qualification @4.50 being the cherry on top of the cake and Austria non qualifying @2.00 and finishing 15th.

- Backing Spain in Top-4/5/10 (3.46-2.47-1.80) markets and head-to-head versus Sweden @ 2.62 and @27 for the win.

- Backing Serbia to qualify/Top-3 in SF/best Balkan/h2h versus France markets (1.40-2.84-4.10-1.75) and Top-5/10 (5.28-2.27)

- Backing UK in Top-4/5 (2.40-2.15).

-My overall Final analysis except for Ukraine and Italy.

What would I have done differently:

- I would have closed my Spain and UK position during the Jury voting when they were trading @3.00-4.00 and secure a great profit instead of going all in after making sure I would not lose any money.

- Be more open to Ukraine's potential and Italy's signs.

- Tipping Cyprus NQ (2.56) and Serbia's Top-3 in SF (2.84) instead of the Belgium's NQ and Poland's win. Ireland's and San Marino's qualification bets had value and I would be happy to take them again. 

Lessons learned for the future:

- This was the first time ever that I have watched most of the national finals to have a better understanding but in the end, I have ended up bringing more biases and noise when I had to compare the songs in a different field.

I will try to go back to my previous routine watching only San Remo and Melodifestivalen and just hear/watch the rest of the Winners.

- The Eurovision bubble is unavoidable, especially if you have a blog and a twitter account but I will try to minimise my exposure during the pre-rehearsal season that lasts for many weeks and usually does not add any kind of knowledge or useful information.

- Be more open to the dynamics that change during the Contest and try to maintain a clear and open mind when it matters the most, the final week.

My 2023 Resolution

I am thinking of introducing a few new elements to my analysis for the 2023 season and will need your feedback on this one as well.

I will be posting more often from now on, even in the off season when there is more time to analyse patterns and historical data and focus more on the incoming information and data during the Eurovision season. 

I will not be analysing any of the national finals except for San Remo and maybe Melodifestivalen, but I will introduce a new format for every song that is announced/revealed and will be called 'The First Impression'. 

I would like to read what you would like to see in this blog for the new season. Feel free to comment here or in Twitter or by sending me a message or email.

Looking forward for the new season to start!

Stefania, hold me closer and get ready for a 'ryde' in space that will give you chills when in Slo-mo...

Here we are! Just a few hours left for the Grand Final and the Top-5 has not moved a bit for a week. 

Ukraine is still leading the board, entering the Final with the lowest price ever matched in the modern era (1.33). Currently is trading at 1.40. 

Nothing swayed the Ukraine backers, not even the first half draw. Producers and EBU gave Ukraine slot #12 and you can interpret it in different ways. 

Ukraine won the Semi-Final 100%, but numbers imply that the voting will not be a walk in the park, so EBU played a fair game and gave them a late slot. That is the most plausible explanation of all. 

UK and Sweden are after the hot favourite trading at similar prices (11.00 vs 11.50). Sweden will be performing at slot #20 and UK at #22, both treated as the best entries of the second half. 

Italy has drifted since last week, especially after the end of the Semi-Finals currently trading at 22.00, the same price with Spain, which reached 40.00 at one point in the week. 

These is the solid Top-5 with the sixth favourite trading at 180 (Serbia, Netherlands)!

I have spent hundreds of hours this season trying to solve the riddle and find who the winner is. 

There are valid points that could be made for all five entries. The truth is that all of them are vulnerable in some aspect, and this is the reason I believe that tonight we will have the most exciting voting since 2016. 

Ukraine has been the favourite only because of the war happening there. Kalush Orchestra hasn't even won the national final. Stefania is a song that in a normal year would finish 8th-12th. 

The narrative is that people and Juries will show their support voting for Ukraine. This is the leading force behind the shortest price ever available for the favourite. 

That same narrative implies that the Televoting will be in record heights (Portugal 2017 - 376pts) and Ukraine will win with the biggest score ever. 

The truth is that until the time that the votes will be revealed we can only speculate. And do not forget, there is the Jury voting before. 

Again, in a normal year Ukraine would finish 12th-15th with the Juries. I am expecting them to finish way higher than that, but the big question is how many points they could get.

I am assuming that their Televote score will be in the 300-350 pts area. In that case, they will need 150-175 pts to secure the win. That translates to 4-4.5 pts on average from every Jury. It is not that high, and we can safely assume that there will be countries that will reward Ukraine some 12s and 10s. If that will be the case, then it is game over.

With a lower score, Ukraine will be heavily relying on the Televoting. And in that case EBU has made everything that is possible to reduce the Ukrainian handicap from the rest of the field. 

All the Televoting magnets of the first half are near Ukraine (France #6, Norway #8, Italy #9, Spain #10, Netherlands #11). Ukraine will be the last in a sequence of strong entries that could all end up in Televoting Top-10. 

After Ukraine there is a sequence of five low energy slow tempo songs, followed by Moldova, the entry that has the biggest Televoting potential in the second half. 

Ukraine still has the upper hand, but 1.40 in a field of 25 entries has no value whatsoever. 

Juries: 175+, Televoting: 350+ are the magic numbers for Ukraine. 

Italy is currently fourth in odds. Rai shows in every way possible that they do not wish to host for a second time in a row. Add to that the first rehearsals when Mahmood and Blanco were not giving 100% and people started writing off Italy. 

That could be the case, however I still think that Italy could be the one to dethrone Ukraine. Brividi is the entry that was charting most during the season. The numbers are always biased because of the Italian population and the popularity of San Remo, but they are still big.

Mahmood is the biggest name in the whole line up tonight, and coming back once more for the win, could propel Italy's televoting. 

Italy has tried hard to crack the Juries in the last few years and has finally managed to score those 200 pts that are needed for Top-5 rankings. The staging is spectacular, and Jurors have no reason to punish Italy. 

My current projection with Juries is 230-270 pts. 

If Televoting reaches the 250-pts barrier, then Italy is in with a chance. This is where Mahmood's charisma and Blanco's popularity could kick in.

And do not forget that the market tends to underestimate Italy. That was the case in 2018 that no one saw their Televote score coming. That was also the case with Mahmood in 2019, when Italy was 4th-5th favourite and during the show their numbers exploded.

Italy does not need to win neither of the two constituencies to secure the win. At 23.00 there is value. 

Juries 260+, Televoting 250+ is what Italy looking for.

Spain offers the best show in the night. It might be a bit off in the mood but for sure the public will go crazy. It has the biggest reaction in the arena and public will love it. 

300 televoting points are achievable and then it all comes to Juries. Will they acknowledge Slo-Mo's quality in choreography and reward it or will they find it oversexualized?

If Spain is near the 200-pts margin with Juries, then anything could happen. Another entry that has value at 23.00.

Juries 200+, Televoting 300+ is the path to win for Spain.

Sweden was given the same slot that gave France the second-place last year. Coming after Moldova will cost them some televoting pts and Australia at #21, UK at #22 and Poland at #23, will cost them some serious Jury pts. 

However, Sweden is a powerhouse with Juries and if they manage to win them with a score in the 275-300 pts area, then they are also in with a chance. 

They will also need 200+ televote points and that is the most difficult part for Sweden. They have not reached that threshold since 2015 when they won. 

The current price, 12.00 also has some value if you believe in Sweden's numbers. 

Juries 275+, Televoting 225+ is what Sweden is aiming for.

UK is the biggest climber of the season. Started as a song that had potential for Top-10 and after the Eurojury results was upgraded to Top-4 and now is trending second after Ukraine. What a journey!

UK has the most difficult path to secure the win and is the big x-factor in televoting. 

Everything points to a Jury win or Top-3 in worst case scenario. UK needs to be as close to that 300-pts margin as possible. 

That means that UK would need approximately 200 pts in Televoting. And that is a big ask. Checking the split results since 2009, UK's best score was in 2011 with 166 pts and 2009 was the second time they have reached the 100-pts threshold (105). That's it!

Since 2012 the biggest televoting score UK has managed is 36 pts!

It is possible for a country with no previous good record to score high, but it is not something I would rely on. 

Juries 325+, Televoting 175+ is the most suitable path for a UK win.

The best way to have a profit this year if you wish to bet on the Winners market, is to either lay Ukraine, or bet on all four other favourites.

The jury voting tonight will be the most exciting ever and that is a fact. If Ukraine struggles, the road is open for the rest. If Ukraine is near or in Top-5 then it might be over before it even started. 

Whoever does the step up and performs better than expected will have the upper hand.

Currently I'm leaning towards an Italian or Spanish win.

Ukraine has the easier path to win however, followed by Italy and then Sweden. 

I think I have covered the Winner's section so let's have a look at the whole line-up and my projections.

Czechia

The #1 slot have hurt their chances for a Top-15 finish. The last one that came from that slot was in 2016 (Belgium). Top -15 @ 1.96 is acceptable (Exchange, Smarkets)

Tv: 13th - Juries: 19th - Total: 16th

Estimated Points: 90/125 (Tv: 55/75 - Juries: 35/50)

Romania

The slot implies that Romania was saved by the Televoters Romanian diaspora. The matchup vs Germany (bet365) @1.33 is not great in value but very probable.

Tv: 18th - Juries: 22nd - Total: 22nd

Estimated Points: 50-85 (Tv: 30/50 - Juries: 20/35)

Portugal

The one that was sacrificed from EBU to minimize Ukraine's televoting power. There have been two cases in the recent past (Israel '15, Czechia '19) where the song finishing second in Semi-Final was given the slot #3. Top-15 @ 1.60 has value. (Exchange, Smarkets). 

Top-10 @ 3.75 or more is also acceptable.

Match-up against Australia @ 1.72 as well (bet365)

Tv: 14th - Juries: 11th - Total: 12th

Estimated Points: 135-175 (Tv: 50/70 - Juries: 85/105)

Finland

Slot suggests that Finland has either struggled with both constituencies in Semi-Final or was saved by one! The only bet that value is finishing last @ 67.00 (William Hill).

Finland has finished last 10 times!

Tv: 21st - Juries: 23rd - Total: 24th

Estimated Points: 35-65 (Tv: 20/30 - Juries: 15/35)

Switzerland

Was saved by the Juries. In a wider field it will struggle but will get enough to avoid last place.

Tv: 25th - Juries: 13th - Total: 20th

Estimated Points: 70-90 (Tv: 5/15 - Juries: 65/85)

France

There was the potential for a Top-10 finish that was gone when the running order was revealed. Might struggle with Juries. If they finish in Top-10 with televoting they might have a chance for a Top-15 finish @ 1.69 (Exchange, Smarkets). 

Slot #6 has a streak of 4 Top-15 finishes and 6/7 since 2014.

Tv: 11th - Juries: 24th - Total: 17th

Estimated Points: 80-115 (Tv: 70/90 - Juries: 10/25)

Norway

Norway has not lived to the hype of the pre-rehearsal season. Top-10 is still achievable, but I find no value @1.78.

Tv: 9th - Juries: 18th - Total: 11th

Estimated Points: 140-185 (Tv: 100/125 - Juries: 40/60)

Armenia

I might be overestimating this one, not because of its quality that is there, but because of its running order coming before a sequence of favourites. If diaspora and neighbours help, Top-15 @ 2.10 might pose some value.

Match-up against Finland @ 1.72 looks yummy! (bet365)

Tv: 15th - Juries: 16th - Total: 15th

Estimated Points: 95-135 (Tv: 45/65 - Juries: 50/70)

Italy

I have made my points earlier. Win @ 23.00 (Exchange, Smarkets) is a value bet. Top-4 finish over 2.00 is acceptable.

Tv: 4th - Juries: 2nd - Total: 1st

Estimated Points: 425-505 (Tv: 195/235 - Juries: 230/270)

Spain

Same with Italy. Spain has more value for Top-3/4 (3.00+, 2.25+)

Spain vs Sweden @ 2.62 (bet365) is part of my personal book as well. 

Sweden in 2015 won from that slot.

Tv: 2nd - Juries: 6th - Total: 3rd

Estimated Points: 380-450 (Tv: 250/290 - Juries: 130/160)

Netherlands

The one that could break in the Top-5 performing well with both constituencies. It is offered @4.00 with most companies. 

Finishing 8th or higher @2.00 (bet365) will be one of my tips for tonight.

The match-up against Norway @ 1.66 is a good option. (bet365)

Tv: 5th - Juries: 4th - Total: 6th

Estimated Points: 340-420 (Tv: 170/210 - Juries: 170/210)

Ukraine

There is nothing else to comment on Ukraine. No odds with any value.

Tv: 1st - Juries: 8th - Total: 2nd

Estimated Points: 410-480 (Tv: 300/340 - Juries: 110/140)

Germany

Will finish last, but on a 25 songs' field, there is no value at just doubling your money. Ukraine will suck all the energy out of it. 

To finish 23rd or worse @ 1.28 is money in the bank (bet365)

Tv: 24th - Juries: 25th - Total: 25th

Estimated Points: 10-35 (Tv: 10/20 - Juries: 0/15)

Lithuania

Target is achieved, now is time to relax and enjoy. Lithuania will get enough to avoid Bottom-3/5 but this is it. 

Tv: 16th - Juries: 20th - Total: 19th

Estimated Points: 75-110 (Tv: 45/65 - Juries: 30/45)

Azerbaijan

Secured a spot in the Final that is the best they could ask for. If for some reason they score high with Juries, Top-15 is within reach and @ 4.20 this is value! 

Tv: 22nd - Juries: 12th - Total: 18th

Estimated Points: 85-115 (Tv: 15/25 - Juries: 70/90)

Belgium

Borderline qualifier that is relying on Juries, is never good news for a good result on the Final. Especially with all other slow-tempo entries in the mix. 

Finishing Last @ 13.00 is a value bet. (bet365)

Tv: 23rd - Juries: 17th - Total: 23rd

Estimated Points: 55-85 (Tv: 10/20 - Juries: 45/65)

Greece

It has Bulgaria 2021 written all over it! Even the slot is the same. Top-3 in the Semi-Final most probably, will get a decent Jury score and with the help of some friends and neighbours is looking for a spot in Top-10. 

No value on the current price though.

Tv: 17th - Juries: 7th - Total: 10th

Estimated Points: 160-210 (Tv: 40/60 - Juries: 120/150)

Iceland

Another entry that has already achieved its goal. Will get enough points to avoid last place.

Tv: 20th - Juries: 21st - Total: 22nd

Estimated Points: 50-85 (Tv: 25/40 - Juries: 25/45)

Moldova

I have underestimated Moldova's televoting power in my Semi-Final predictions. It has Ukraine 2021 potential and remains to be seen how Juries will treat it. The one that hurts Sweden's odds for the win.

Top-10 over 1.70 is free money in my opinion. For those who believe that Moldova can do it again, Top-5 @ 8.00 is acceptable (Exchange, Smarkets).

Tv: 3rd - Juries: 15th - Total: 8th

Estimated Points: 265-325 (Tv: 210/250 - Juries: 55/75)

Sweden

Everything was said above. My suspicion is that this could be the one from the Top-5 that could slip further down. France is the only podium in that slot since 2014...

Tv: 6th - Juries: 3rd - Total: 4th

Estimated Points: 380-450 (Tv: 160/200 - Juries: 220/250)

Australia

Running order will hurt any chance it had for a Top-10 finish unless it finishes in Top-5 with Juries which seems a long shot for me.

Tv: 19th - Juries: 9th - Total: 13th

Estimated Points: 125-160 (Tv: 25/40 - Juries: 100/120)

UK

It is now or never for Sam! Israel won from #22 in 2018 and Italy finished 2nd in 2019! 

I am underestimating the Televoting score, but I must take in consideration UK's history. 

Tv: 8th - Juries: 1st - Total: 5th

Estimated Points: 360-440 (Tv: 110/140 - Juries: 250/300)

Poland

Coming after UK is not great for Poland. If Juries reward him, the Polish diaspora will do the rest. 

I do have a suspicion though that it might finish lower with Juries. 

The match-up against Greece@ 1.72 

Tv: 7th - Juries: 5th - Total: 7th

Estimated Points: 260-330 (Tv: 120/150 - Juries: 140/180)

Serbia

Serbia has made it and is my Swiss knife for the Final! I have it in Top-10, Best Balkan entry and to beat France in prices that would secure a nice profit. I have tipped the Best Balkan nine days ago @5.00 and is currently @ 2.00-2.25!

Friends and televoters will make sure that Serbia finishes in Top-10. 

Tv: 10th - Juries: 10th - Total: 9th

Estimated Points: 180-220 (Tv: 90/110 - Juries: 90/110)

Estonia

The best possible slot for Estonia. It might increase their chances for a Top-10 result. However, with Serbia, Poland and UK before, televoting points which could secure that spot will be less. 

For the 'Hopers' Top-10 over 3.50 is acceptable. 

Tv: 12th - Juries: 14th - Total: 14th

Estimated Points: 120-160 (Tv: 60/80 - Juries: 60/80)

And for the OCDs here is the full list in order.

 1. Italy: 425-505 (Tv: 195/235 - Juries: 230/270)

2. Ukraine: 410-480 (Tv: 300/340 - Juries: 110/140)

3. Spain: 380-450 (Tv: 250/290 - Juries: 130/160)

4. Sweden:  380-450 (Tv: 160/200 - Juries: 220/250)

5. UK: 360-440 (Tv: 110/140 - Juries: 250/300)

6. Netherlands: 340-420 (Tv: 170/210 - Juries: 170/210)

7. Poland: 260-330 (Tv: 120/150 - Juries: 140/180)

8. Moldova: 265-325 (Tv: 210/250 - Juries: 55/75)

9. Serbia: 180-220 (Tv: 90/110 - Juries: 90/110)

10. Greece: 160-210 (Tv: 40/60 - Juries: 120/150)

11. Norway:  140-185 (Tv: 100/125 - Juries: 40/60)

12. Portugal: 135-175 (Tv: 50/70 - Juries: 85/105)

13. Australia: 125-160 (Tv: 25/40 - Juries: 100/120)

14. Estonia: 120-160 (Tv: 60/80 - Juries: 60/80)

15. Armenia: 95-135 (Tv: 45/65 - Juries: 50/70)

16. Czechia: 90/125 (Tv: 55/75 - Juries: 35/50)

17. France: 80-115 (Tv: 70/90 - Juries: 10/25)

18. Azerbaijan: 85-115 (Tv: 15/25 - Juries: 70/90)

19. Lithuania: 75-110 (Tv: 45/65 - Juries: 30/45)

20. Switzerland: 70-90 (Tv: 5/15 - Juries: 65/85)

21. Romania: 50-85 (Tv: 30/50 - Juries: 20/35)

22. Iceland: 50-85 (Tv: 25/40 - Juries: 25/45)

23. Belgium: 55-85 (Tv: 10/20 - Juries: 45/65)

24. Finland: 35-65 (Tv: 20/30 - Juries: 15/35)

25. Germany: 10-35 (Tv: 10/20 - Juries: 0/15)

And now the time that you have all been waiting for!

Where do we bet our money? 

The second Semi-Final has been disastrous for me, unless Poland or Serbia won which I find a long shot. 

I am happy that I have changed my strategy this year and invested 10% of my capital on each Semi-Final plus a few earnings instead of 20% 

I have invested in total 250 units in the Semi-Finals, and I have 35 units in open bets and a return of 276.7 units.

I have used the 50 units in Semi-Final 2 and the 226.7 are transferred to the Final. 

That makes the total amount of units available for the Final 1026.7

50 of those are already invested so my remaining sum is 976.7

Having the Ukrainian factor to consider, I have decided to invest the 326.7 units in the Winner's market to the following bets

Italy to win @ 26.00 x 50 units (Exchange, Smarkets) for all 4

Sweden to win @ 11.00 x 26.7 units

Spain to win @ 23.00 x 125 units

UK to win @ 10.50 x 125 units 

As you can see, Spain and UK are my main bets with Italy and Sweden used as partial cover. Any of those bets will guarantee a nice return.

600 units are left and I will use 550 for my main bets

Netherlands to finish 8th or higher @2.00 x 200 units (bet365)

Spain to finish Top-4 @ 2.56 x 250 units (Exchange, Smarkets)

Spain to beat Sweden @ 2.62 x 100 units (bet365)

And the last part, my 50 units for the fun bets

Finland to finish last @ 67.00 x 30 units (William Hill)

Belgium to finish last @ 14.00 x 20 units (Unibet)

That's it!!! You can find all the tips gathered at my book 

Good luck with your bets tonight and I hope we will have a suspenseful evening.

I promise that this year I will write my aftermath post within the next week.

Enjoy!

 

Down to the River, Biti-Biti-Biti Zdrava!

 

The first Semi-Final is now behind us, and we are not much wiser regarding who will win on Saturday. 

My guess is that Ukraine won the Semi-Final with Greece and Portugal or Netherlands being in Top-3.

 The numbers suggest that Ukraine has won the Televoting (no news here) and Greece the Juries. 

There were no big surprises, but metrics suggest that the Juries have saved two entries (Iceland, Switzerland) and that means that Albania and Austria were the ones that had to pay the price. 

The most important moment of the night was the draw for the running order after the Semi-Final and Ukraine got a first half slot. The market did not seem to bother at all, and Ukraine's price continued to shorten after the first few minutes. 

Currently trading at 1.50s, this is the shortest price that I remember before the night of the Final ever. It is interesting to see where the price will stop dropping. 

Time to focus on Semi-Final 2 and enjoy the last hours of sleep before Sunday morning...

You can find my Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings here. The first Semi-Final finished with an almost perfect 9/10. The second one though will be tougher to predict with more countries having a chance to qualify. 

Finland (Q)

They were in the conversation for the Top-10 in the Final pre-rehearsal but that is not the case anymore. They have enough to qualify but the Q price is very very short (1.32). Jurors will show some respect to Rasmus and a decent Televoting can finish the job.

Tv: 7th - Juries: 10th - Total: 8th

Estimated Points: 105/145 (Tv: 60/80 - Juries: 45/65)

Israel (NQ)

This is too much of a mess failing to connect with the Televoters. I don't expect Jurors to show much love either. Everything points to the extension of the current non-qualifying streak from slot #2 to eight!

Tv: 13th - Juries: 15th - Total: 14th

Estimated Points:50/70 (Tv: 30/40 - Juries: 20/30)

Serbia (Q)

Europe has no idea what will hit them tonight! 'In Corpore Sano' is not a song! It's an artistic performance with so many levels! It has enormous potential, especially with the Televoters and Top-3 (2.88) is within reach.  It is one of my selections for the Semi-Final.

 Winning the Semi-Final (26.00) also hides some value.

A good draw in the Final could also mean a Top-10 result. The one to watch tonight. 

Tv: 1st - Juries: 5th - Total: 3rd

Estimated Points:235/275 (Tv: 150/170 - Juries: 85/105)

Azerbaijan (NQ)

This will be one of the marginal calls. I think that it has enough to finish in Top-10 with the Juries, but I doubt it will have the same impact with televoters. Performing after Serbia will have an impact. Being a coin toss, lay at 1.60 has some value.

Tv: 11th - Juries: 9th - Total: 11th

Estimated Points: 80/120 (Tv: 35/55 - Juries: 45/65)

Georgia (NQ)

Could finish last or shock us all and qualify to the Final. I choose the first option but if you believe in them, Q is at 5.40. It is too experimental for Eurovision and jurors might perceive it as a joke entry.

Tv: 17th - Juries: 17th - Total: 17th

Estimated Points: 25/45 (Tv: 10/20 - Juries: 15/25)

Malta (Q)

Another marginal call that could land both sides. Malta has its way to 'work' with the Juries and make it to the Final. Staying close to the Top-10 in Televoting will be enough. The Q price trades at 2.12 for those who believe in Malta's abilities to influence jurors  chances to qualify...

Tv: 10th - Juries: 7th - Total: 9th

Estimated Points: 105/145 (Tv: 40/60 - Juries: 65/85)

San Marino (Q)

I have tipped San Marino pre-rehearsals and I have not changed my mind. The staging is exactly what I was expecting from Achille Lauro. Juries will be harsh but being a glam rock entry and Achille Lauro being an established artist, it can partially get away. The arena will be with him and televoters will follow. Q at 2.20 still has value.

Tv: 5th - Juries: 11th - Total: 7th

Estimated Points: 120/160 (Tv:85/105 - Juries: 35/55)

Australia (Q)

We know what Australia brings on the table. A strong jury entry that could finish in Top-3 with them but lacks the Televoting appeal that could have turned it in a contender. This one is sailing to the Final.

Tv: 9th - Juries: 3rd - Total: 5th

Estimated Points: 155/195 (Tv: 45/65 - Juries: 110/130)

Cyprus (NQ)

Cyprus is playing with fire this year and is closer than ever to end the six qualifications streak. Andromache struggles vocally and the staging looks very static. The biggest disappointment in this Semi-Final. 

I have backed its non-qualification since last week at 2.75. Currently is at 2.10-2.20 which is still acceptable. 

Tv: 12th - Juries: 12th - Total: 12th

Estimated Points: 65/105 (Tv: 35/55 - Juries: 30/50)

Ireland (Q)

The biggest improvement of all songs. It came in Turin being favourite for the last place and is currently in the mix for the qualification. It really shines between Cyprus and North Macedonia.

 It is still available at 4.00-4.50 in most of the betting companies and it is the definition of a value bet. Having UK, Malta, and Australia voting in the Semi is huge advantage.

Tv: 8th - Juries: 13th - Total: 10th

Estimated Points: 80/120 (Tv: 50/70 - Juries: 30/50)

North Macedonia (NQ)

Nothing to see here. North Macedonia will finish deservedly last. 

Tv: 18th - Juries: 18th - Total: 18th

Estimated Points: 15/35 (Tv: 5/15 - Juries: 10/20)

Estonia (Q)

Middle of the road, doing what is needed to secure the qualification. I do not find value in any of the available markets. 

Tv: 6th - Juries: 6th - Total: 6th

Estimated Points: 145/185 (Tv: 70/90 - Juries: 75/95)

Romania (NQ)

Romania needs to find its mojo again, but this is not the year. Being sandwiched between two superior entries does not help either. I tipped the non-qualification just before the rehearsals started at 1.80. Currently is at 1.44...

Tv: 14th - Juries: 16th - Total: 16th

Estimated Points: 40/60 (Tv: 20/30 - Juries: 20/30)

Poland (Q)

It is now or never for Poland! If they fail once again to convince the Juries that they have a worthy song, I do not know when or if they will ever make it. The diaspora has been absent as well the last few years. It remains to be seen if Poland is the one that could sneak in the Top-5 that looks unbreakable for a week now. 

Winning the Semi-Final is at 4.50-6.00 and it does have a value if you believe that Sweden is vulnerable.

Tv: 2nd - Juries: 1st - Total: 1st

Estimated Points: 280/320 (Tv: 140/160 - Juries: 140/160)

Montenegro (NQ)

Unfortunately for Vladana, the song is not the same level with competition which is stiff. Bottom-3 is guaranteed.

Tv: 16th - Juries: 14th - Total: 15th

Estimated Points: 40/65 (Tv: 15/25 - Juries: 25/40)

Belgium (NQ)

There is no other country that has failed to qualify so many times in the Final, even though it was in the Top-10 in odds before the Semi.

 Last year the Juries saved Hooverphonic. In 2018 and 2019 they failed miserably, especially in 2018 when they were among the favourites before the contest. 

The problem is always the uninspired staging. There is no exception this year and Juries will not be enough to save them. 

Belgium Not to qualify at 2.50 is one of my tips for tonight!

Tv: 15th - Juries: 8th - Total: 13th

Estimated Points: 65/95 (Tv: 15/25 - Juries: 50/70)

Sweden (Q)

The big favourite to win the Semi-Final and among the contenders. I might be underestimating Sweden this year, but I fail to see winning potential. It is more authentic than the recent Swedish entries, however it lacks impact. I have the feeling that recent Swedish struggles with the public vote will continue. I get the feeling that this is a semi-finished product. It was enough to win Melfest, but not enough to contend in Eurovision. 

For that reason, I find Sweden's odds to win the Semi-Final (1.25-1.45) way too short. Lay is the only value bet here. 

Tv: 4th - Juries: 2nd - Total: 2nd

Estimated Points: 245/285 (Tv: 110/130 - Juries: 135/155)

Czechia (Q)

One of the first songs selected for the season, a few shaky vocals in the pre-parties and Czechia was downgraded to an ok song that might struggle but will qualify to the Final. However, they delivered when it mattered, and everyone remembered that this is a great song. 

Top-3 in the Semi-Final at 4.20 is value!

Tv: 3rd - Juries: 4th - Total: 4th

Estimated Points: 225/265 (Tv: 125/145 - Juries: 100/120)

And that's it! I do not think that Semi-Final 2 is higher on quality than the first one. Exactly because of that there are more entries that are in with a chance. 

In Semi-Final 1 there were 12 entries competing for the 10 spots. Tonight, we have 13 contenders and one or two potential shock qualifiers. 

The safe qualifiers are Poland, Sweden, Serbia, Czechia, Estonia, Australia.

After the leading pack there are 7 countries fighting for 4 spots: San Marino, Finland, Malta, Ireland, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Belgium. I have chosen the first 4.

I expect a similar scoreboard as in Semi-Final 2 back in 2018 where the point difference between #9 and #13 was just 16 points. The public vote back then saved 3 countries and Juries 1. 

And what about betting?

This Semi-Final offers plenty opportunities and prices for different betting styles. 

Back in March when I wrote my betting resolution, I made a promise to myself to reduce my bets for the Semi-Finals.

I have already suggested 

San Marino to qualify @ 2.30 x 25 units (23.04) 

Romania not to qualify @ 1.80 x 55 units (27.04) 

That leaves me with 20 available units originally invested in this Semi-Final and 

276.7 units available from my settled bets in Semi-Final 1. I have chosen to use only a tiny part of those units for today and invest the rest of them in the Final.

My additions today will be

Ireland to qualify @ 4.00 x 20 units 

Belgium not to qualify @ 2.62 x 25 units (bet365)

and I cannot resist to add 2 value/fun bets

Serbia to win the Semi-Final @ 26.00 x 5 units (available in different companies)

Poland to win the Semi-Final @ 5.50 x 20 units (it is available higher in certain betting companies)

That brings my total units invested in this Semi-Final to 150. I just need 2/6 successful bets to take my money back. Not bad at all!

You can find all my bets for Semi-Finals and the Final here.

Good luck with all your bets! My next post will be on Saturday morning and of course it will be about the D-day. I

f I find the time and energy, I might post something tomorrow with key numbers regarding the running order and the hints that we might have. 

I will also be on twitter to comment during and after the Semi-Final.

The Tipping Point?...

The big day is here, ladies and gentlemen! 

Months of speculations and different narratives regarding the winner will be tested in the next few days. 

All eyes will be in Ukraine this evening, during and after the show. 

The market is still behind Ukraine that was trading as low as 1.63 yesterday. During the Jury show, we had some early cracks with the price drifting slightly to 1.75 and the reason was Italy's dress rehearsal!

The million-dollar question, or to be more precise the tens of million pounds question, is if Ukraine can win the Contest not based on merit but based on the situation and the waves of support going its way. 

After the show we will also have the running order draw. If Ukraine gets a second half draw, which is the most probable scenario* (already 4 of the Big-5 performing in first half and only UK performing is second), then I am expecting the price to shorten more, reaching levels that we have never seen before the voting in Eurovision. 

* The order of announcing the finalists is the order they draw their running order. If Ukraine is announced late, that might be a small hint of how EBU will treat Ukraine in the Final. 

Enough with the theories! It is time for action! Ten days ago, I have posted my Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings and a thing or two have changed. 

Last year my predictions for both Semi-Final were 8/10. I will be happy with a similar result.

Albania 

One of my case studies for this year. I find Albania's entry too aggressive and messy to connect with the casual viewers. In the last three competitions Albania was saved three times: one by the televoters (2019) and two times by the Juries (2018,2021). Their four qualifications in that span were marginals (2015-8th, 2018-8th, 2019-9th, 2021-10th).

Albania has some friends in the Semi-Final, call me Italy, Greece, Switzerland, and Croatia, but they are missing their best allies which are Montenegro, and North Macedonia. 

Add those facts to the aggressiveness of the song, which reminds me of Armenia '19 and Israel '14 and the value does not lie on Q (1.45) but on non-qualification currently @ 4.50 in Betfair Sportsbook.

Tv: 9th - Juries: 12th - Total: 11th

Estimated Points: 75/115 (Tv: 45/65 - Juries: 30/50)

Latvia

I still believe that 'Eat Your Salad' is a joke entry but I respect its dynamic. I would not mind if it were left out and there is still a chance it might, but Televote will be enough to save it.

Tv: 6th - Juries: 9th - Total: 6th

Estimated Points: 145/185 (Tv: 90/110 - Juries: 55/75)

Lithuania

I am far from certain with this one. It can go both ways and is the definition of borderline. Being in the middle of the road might be enough to secure the 10th and final spot for the Final. 

Q @2.82 has value for those who are sentimental.

Tv: 11th - Juries: 10th - Total: 10th

Estimated Points: 80/120 (Tv: 35/55 - Juries: 45/65)

Switzerland

Another hit and miss entry. It is not written off, but I reckon that during the show its odds will start drifting. There are better jury-bait packages in the Semi-Final and the dark stage is not adding anything to the song. Running order does not help either. It needs a Top-6 with the Juries as a worst-case scenario to qualify because its televoting appeal is minimal.

Tv: 15th - Juries: 8th - Total: 12th

Estimated Points: 75/105 (Tv: 15/25 - Juries: 60/80)

Slovenia

Nothing changed here. The goal is to avoid last place and will probably fail to succeed. 

Tv: 17th - Juries: 17th - Total: 17th

Estimated Points: 20/40 (Tv: 10/20 - Juries: 10/20)

Ukraine

The absolute case study that we will be mentioning for ages. This is the big night for Ukraine and remains to be seen how people in the arena and at home will react. I must admit that I am not impressed with the staging, but this song is not about music anymore. It can still win both the Semi-Final and the Grand Final, but I think that it will find strong resistance from Greece, at least in the Semi.

Tv: 1st - Juries: 3rd - Total: 2nd

Estimated Points: 260/300 (Tv: 150/170 - Juries: 110/130)

Bulgaria

Bulgaria will reach its goal of avoiding the Bottom-3 and especially the last place. Qualification is out of reach; the odds though have some value at least for those who use the two trading companies. 

@17.00 I wouldn't blame someone if they placed a fun bet (I have😊).

Tv: 13th - Juries: 15th - Total: 14th

Estimated Points: 30/60 (Tv: 15/35 - Juries: 15/25)

Netherlands

Netherlands will be sailing to the Final! It has a chance to crack Top-3 tonight, but the staging might affect its chances. Still in the mix for a Top-10 result in the Final and my favourite entry for this year!

Tv: 5th - Juries: 5th - Total: 5th

Estimated Points: 190/230 (Tv: 95/115 - Juries: 95/115)

Moldova

There was never a doubt about Moldova qualifying. They bring loads of energy that is infectious. The Q odds are too short (1.44), but qualification might be marginal. 

Tv: 7th - Juries: 11th - Total: 9th

Estimated Points: 110/150 (Tv: 70/90 - Juries: 40/60)

Portugal

Another one qualifying easily. Portugal does have a decent chance to crack Top-3 tonight and its odds are not bad at all (3.6). This is another one to watch as it has Top-10 potential as well.

Tv: 4th - Juries: 2nd - Total: 4th

Estimated Points: 230/270 (Tv: 110/130 - Juries: 120/140)

Croatia

I had Croatia a borderline non-qualifier, but the messy staging has made sure that Croatia will miss another Final. Not sure where they can find the points to make it.

Tv: 14th - Juries: 16th - Total 15th

Estimated Points: 30/50 (Tv: 15/25 - Juries: 15/25)

Denmark

Denmark failed to elevate its staging and its chances. Some allies in the Semi-Final can help them avoid the last place.

Tv: 16th - Juries: 14th - Total: 16th

Estimated Points: 25/50 (Tv: 10/20 - Juries: 15/30)

Austria

Austria had a roller coaster ride this week. Pia Maria's vocals were an issue during rehearsals and Austria had fallen in the non-qualification zone. Yesterday, somehow improved and with the help of the pre-recorded backing vocals, Austria climbed back to the Top-10. I am still not convinced that the Juries gave Austria an out of jail card. I might underestimate their Televoting power though. Would not be surprised if they qualify.

Tv: 12th - Juries: 13th - Total: 13th

Estimated Points: 50/90 (Tv: 30/50 - Juries: 20/40)

Iceland

The one that steadily elevated during rehearsals. Iceland is in with a chance. The song could do very well both with Juries and Televoters and has some allies that could offer the much-needed points for the qualification (Denmark, Norway, Latvia, Netherlands). The Q odds (2.4-2.6) are the ones with the best value for tonight. I am more than happy having Iceland in my book to qualify @ 3.5!

Tv: 10th - Juries: 7th - Total: 8th

Estimated Points: 110/150 (Tv: 40/60 - Juries: 70/90)

Greece

'Die Together' was in the conversation for a good finish, somehow it got forgotten and now it re-emerges back on the surface. I do not know if Greece has enough to crack Top-5 in the Final, it might do as it is currently gaining momentum, but winning the Semi-Final is possible. I know that there is the elephant in the room but Winning the Semi @ 5.00 does have value and I will back it. Juries will give enough to elevate it I reckon.

Tv: 3rd - Juries: 1st - Total: 1st

Estimated Points: 270/320 (Tv: 130/150 - Juries: 140/170)

Norway

The one that might threaten Ukraine's televoting win. It can gain a momentum as most of the viewers will be seeing it for the first time. Get ready for a market overreaction. Sailing to the final, could also finish in Top-3 but I do not find value at the current price (1.77). 

Tv: 2nd - Juries: 4th - Total: 3rd

Estimated Points: 240/280 (Tv: 140/160 - Juries: 100/120)

Armenia

A beautiful way to close the Semi Final. Some might find the staging funny, but Armenia has done enough to secure a place in the Final. 

Tv: 8th - Juries: 6th - Total: 7th

Estimated Points: 140/180 (Tv: 60/80 - Juries: 80/100)

And that's it! I am 100% certain for six of my qualifiers: Greece, Ukraine, Norway, Portugal, Netherlands, Armenia.

I have Latvia, Iceland, and Moldova in the almost certain qualifiers and Lithuania in the 10th spot is the vulnerable one. 

Albania, Switzerland, or Austria might grab that one.

And it is time for my betting tips!

I have already tipped 

Austria not to qualify @2.00 x 25 units (17.04) 

After doing a full circle, I find that bet at the same price after 3 weeks!

There are 75 units left to this Semi Final and I will split them in the following bets

Greece Semi-Final Winner @ 4.80 (trading companies) x 10 units

Albania not to qualify @ 4.50 (Betfair Sportsbook) x 30 units

Iceland to qualify @ 2.62 (trading companies) x 35 units

I need 2/4 successful bets to have a profitable Semi-Final.

You can find all my bets for Semi-Finals and the Final here.

Good luck with all your bets! I will be posting on Thursday for Semi-Final 2 and will be on twitter to comment during and after the Semi-Final.

 

Eurovision Madness is here! Keep calm and know your numbers!

 

We have finally gotten a glimpse of all 40 songs and the market got heated today. 

It has been quiet for the whole week, missing any major drama a la Cyprus '18, Azerbaijan '19, Australia '19. 

There have been some movements in the qualify/not qualify market, slightly more than usual because of the impact of the black hole sun on stage that has messed certain entries.  

Everything was relatively quiet until Friday. And then Big-5 rehearsals and running order draw happened and like last year, the market has made a move. 

Ukraine is still the big favourite and keeps shortening to Sergey Lazarev levels, currently @ 1.72. It remains to be seen if Kalush will have the same fate.

The big winner of the last few days is of course UK. It surpassed Sweden and Italy and now is second favourite @ 9.00. First the rehearsal and then the second half draw made the odds move to single digits. My concern is that because of the staging, UK will have to perform after a break, which means somewhere between #15-#17. 

Unless EBU decides to act to promote UK and give a later slot, creating an extra break or pause to the show, UK will be performing in a no man's land. All the action in producer's era is concentrated in slots #10-#12 for the first half and #18-#25 in the second half. 

There is no winner after #12 (Netherlands '19) until we reach #21 (Ukraine '16). It is the same with the runners-up. After #13 (Australia '16) the next runner-up is at #20 (France '21). The first slot with a podium in the second half is #18 (Russia '16-3rd).

Italy's underwhelming rehearsal has created more questions. Is RAI trying to avoid a second win in a row? Is it that Mahmood and Blanco are only tired and need some time to find their form again? Was it a clever idea to spend time on their tours instead of rehearsing?  There is still time.

Sweden is the other sad face of the day slipping from third favourite to fourth and back to the double-digit odds. As is the case every year, Sweden brings more or less the staging of the Melfest and that is now compared to other countries' final product. It was just a correction of the market that sends Sweden where it should be trading, near the 15.00-20.00 area. They are now hoping for a second half draw to keep dreaming.

The day was bittersweet for the other upcoming favourite, Spain. The first half draw made their odds drift a bit, but still in a great distance from the group following. A podium result is still on the table; however, the win seems like a long shot. Something to keep in mind in case Ukraine gets a first half draw, it is probable that EBU will give Spain a latter spot and that might neutralize Ukraine's televote a bit...

My feeling is that there is still some time for someone else to rise to the occasion and sneak in the Top-5 or even higher. There are always the late bloomers that add some spice to the contest. 

The dynamics are now moving faster, and the market responds quicker. 

 And some thoughts about the Semi-Finals so far.

Semi-Final 1: There is a group of six certain qualifiers: Ukraine, Greece, Norway, Netherlands, Armenia, Portugal.

There is also a second group that could end up both ways: Albania, Moldova, Latvia, Switzerland, Iceland. 

Finally, there is the third group that has only theoretical chances to qualify: Austria, Lithuania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Denmark, and Slovenia.

The odds that I find most attractive now and I will be watching them closely is Albania's NQ and Iceland's Q.

Semi-Final 2: My certain qualifiers are: Sweden, Poland, Australia, Serbia, Czechia.

North Macedonia and Montenegro are the only no-hopers.

Everyone else could end up both ways: Estonia, Finland, Belgium, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Malta, San Marino, Israel, Georgia, Ireland. 

Plenty of chances to back outsiders to qualify or shock non-qualifiers. Cyprus, Belgium, and Finland are the ones that I am monitoring. 

I will be posting a full break down and tips for the two Semi-Finals on Tuesday and Thursday with some useful stats as well.

Enjoy the last relaxing day before the madness starts!!!

Eurovision 2022 - Final - UK...is ready for take-off

 

50/50 Split Era Performance ('14-'21)

Wins: -

Podium: -

Top-10: -

Bottom-5: 6 (2014-22nd, 2015-27th, 2016-24th, 2018-24th, 2019-26th, 2021-26th)

Eurovision 2022 - Final - Spain...'ta' ready y nunca secondary

 

50/50 Split Era Performance ('14-'21)

Wins: -

Podium: -

Top-10: -

Bottom-5: 6 (2015-24th, 2016-22nd, 2017-26th, 2018-23rd, 2019-22nd, 2021-24th)

Eurovision 2022 - Final - Germany...the song is about its recent televoting results

 

50/50 Split Era Performance ('14-'21)

Wins: -

Podium: -

Top-10: 1 (2018-4th)

Bottom-5: 5 (2015-25th, 2016-26th, 2017-25th, 2019-25th, 2021-25th)

Eurovision 2022 - Final - Italy...back-to-back wins will give me chills

50/50 Split Era Performance ('14-'21)

Wins: 1 (2021)

Podium: 3 (2015-2nd*, 2019-2nd, 2021-1st))

Top-10: 5 (2015-2nd, 2017-6th, 2018-5th, 2019-2nd, 2021-1st)

Bottom-5: 1 (2014-23rd)

Eurovision 2022 - Final - France...is looking for the missing spark

 

50/50 Split Era Performance ('14-'21)

Wins: -

Podium: 1 (2021-2nd)

Top-10: 2 (2016-6th, 2021-2nd)

Bottom-5: 2 (2014-26th, 2015-26th)

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings

 The rehearsals have already started with some major hiccups (call me stage malfunction) and remains to be seen how some entries might be affected by that.

There is no official statement for the moment, and we have a few more days to find out if the rotating sun will work properly or some entries will need to change plans and their presentation. 

Not the best thing to happen when we have a Semi-Final happening in eight days.

We have to move on and it's time to focus on the entries of Semi-Final 2.

Last year I got right 8/10 qualifiers, having Austria (8th) and Czechia (10th) in my list, and missing Portugal (11th) and Albania (14th).

Just a reminder that if you click on the name of each country, you can find the detailed preview. 

1. Sweden

Tv: 1st - Juries: 1st

What I think it will happen: I do not know what will happen in the Final and if Sweden will win the trophy or not, but the win in the Semi-Final looks like a certainty. The other potential winners are more vulnerable and do stand a chance just in theory. The Jury win is locked and remains to be seen if Sweden can win the Televoting as well. Just a reminder that the best score for Sweden with televoters after the 2015 win, is 103 points back in 2017 and they have not reached the 100 points since then.

I would be shocked if: Sweden finishes out of Top-2.

2. Estonia

Tv: 2nd - Juries: 4th

What I think it will happen: Estonia is the less vulnerable entry of the rest of the field and can score decent points with both constituencies. The odds for a Top-3 finish @3.55 have some value. It's the type of entry that can get the 3-7 points from everyone and finish high without people noticing. 

I would be shocked if: Estonia fails to finish in Top-5.

3.  Poland

Tv: 4th - Juries: 5th

What I think it will happen: Poland reminds me of Bulgaria last year. Among the favorites, at least in theory, and when the Contest started it never took off. Poland can always rely on its diaspora, but this is easier to happen in the Final. The other concern is that Poland has not performed well in Eurojury and they have a chronicle problem with Juries. In fact, they have never finished in Top-10 in a Semi-Final despite qualifying to the Final four times!!! If they miss the Top-10 again then there is a problem.

I would be shocked if: Poland fails to finish in Top-10 with Juries.

4. Serbia

Tv: 3rd - Juries: 8th

What I think it will happen: In Corpore Sano can and will qualify no matter what the running order is. Could achieve a similar result to Russia last year both in Semi-Final and Final. If the juries do not kill it, sky is the limit. Televoting will be enough by itself to help Konstrakta qualify.

I would be shocked if: Serbia misses the Final.

5. Finland

Tv: 5th - Juries: 6th

What I think it will happen: The running order, the brand name and Finland's history with rock entries implies that Rasmus will sail to the Final. Points are guaranteed from both constituencies and would not be surprised if they finish higher, but it would be very difficult to finish lower.

I would be shocked if: They win the Semi or disqualify.

6. Australia

Tv: 9th - Juries: 2nd

What I think it will happen: Australia traditionally suffers with Televoting and 'Not The Same' is destined to struggle as well. Jury points will be enough to secure the ticket to the Final. I reckon that the current odds will shorten throughout the week.

I would be shocked if: Australia finishes in Top-3 with televoters.

7. Belgium

Tv: 12th - Juries: 3rd

What I think it will happen: Belgium is another Jury-oriented entry that will struggle to secure televotes. Juries will most probably save it, however 1.34 to qualify seems very short.

I would be shocked if: Belgium finishes in Top-6 with the public vote.

8. Czechia

Tv: 6th - Juries: 11th

What I think it will happen: A good televote score and hopefully a Top-10 or near Top-10 Jury score will be more than enough to send them to the Final. Another song that suffers a bit on live. If it were on the other Semi, they would be in trouble. They are not 100% safe yet but many things have to go wrong to miss the Final. 

I would be shocked if: They finish in Top-5 with Juries.

9. San Marino

Tv: 7th - Juries: 13th

What I think it will happen: I have four countries tied with a Total of twenty in ranking with Juries and Televoting. Anything could happen from 9-13, if I include Malta as well. I have San Marino leading that group and making it to the Final for the reasons I have described in their post. They are de facto Italy 2.0 with Achille Lauro being a big name in Italy and abroad and I'm sure RAI will treat them like theirs. Italy does not vote on that Semi and these 24 points could make the difference; however, the Italian diaspora will help. If he avoids a Bottom-3 with Juries he should be fine.

I would be shocked if: San Marino is not Top-10 with the public vote.

10. Azerbaijan

Tv: 11th - Juries: 9th

What I think it will happen: Azerbaijan could go both ways, but I still have them on my Q list. They have the know how to qualify and the quality to be Top-10 with both constituencies. The early draw is a concern, especially coming after Serbia, but on the other hand coming before Georgia does them a favour.

I would be shocked if: Azerbaijan finishes lower than 12th.

11. Cyprus

Tv: 10th - Juries: 10th

What I think it will happen: Another coin toss result. I do think that the point difference between 9th and 12th will be within 10-15 points. I am slightly biased with Cyprus, as I find the entry a bit Eurovision by numbers and that could hurt them now that the trend is authenticity. Staging will be crucial. If it is a mess, then they will be left behind.

I would be shocked if: They finish Top-5 with any of the two constituencies.

12. Israel

Tv: 8th - Juries: 12th

What I think it will happen: A bit optimistic here, but I remain open to good result for Israel either with Juries or public vote that could bring them close to the Final. Could be a hit and miss though and see them finish in Bottom-3.

I would be shocked if: They finish higher than 10th.

13. Malta

Tv: 15th - Juries: 7th

What I think it will happen: I might be harsh with their public vote ranking, but I find Malta's entry super generic and indifferent. I always respect their Jury 'magic' and they do have a chance to be in the Final. If they get there though, Bottom-3 is a certainty...

I would be shocked if: They finish in Top-10 with public vote or finish out of Top-10 with Juries.

14. Romania

Tv: 13th - Juries: 15th

What I think it will happen: Romania's recent track record with the three straight non qualifications will continue. Even if they do better with public vote, I struggle to see how jurors will vote for this one. Most of the friends are on the other Semi-Final as well.

This is my main bet, already tipped for Semi-Final 2

I would be shocked if: They finish Top-10 with Juries.

15. Georgia

Tv: 14th - Juries: 14th

What I think it will happen: Any country qualifying from now on will be a shocker qualifier. Georgia has a very experimental entry for a competitive environment. It is not a bad song but is not for Eurovision. I would be happy if they qualify, but I fail to find a qualification path for them.

I would be shocked if: They reach Top-10 with any of the two constituencies.

16. Montenegro

Tv: 16th - Juries: 16th

What I think it will happen: Another hit and miss for Montenegro. Better than their previous entries but still weak for the Top-10. They will get a few points from Serbia and North Macedonia and the occasional 1-3 points from elsewhere, but 50-60 points is their ceiling.

I would be shocked if: Yes, this would be the definition of a shocker qualification, even to that very weak Semi.

17. North Macedonia

Tv: 18th - Juries: 17th

What I think it will happen: The best possible result I can see for North Macedonia is avoiding Bottom-3. That could happen. Anything more than that would require to break the law of physics...

I would be shocked if:  They can avoid Bottom-3 with both constituencies.

18. Ireland

Tv: 17th - Juries: 18th

What I think it will happen: Ireland wants to make history and finish last for a third time in a row. They are really close to that! I cannot decide who is more amateurish: The entry or RTE...

I would be shocked if: They somehow avoid finishing last.

And that's it for Semi-Final 2. I am sure that some of the rankings need some ironing and hopefully will get them right by the time of the show next week. 

In the next few days, I will be posting my previews for the direct finalists.