Everything you need to know about Semi - Final 1, and you were afraid to ask

 

The latest edition of 'Everything you need to know about the Semi Finals, and you were afraid to ask' is here to give you some insight about the numbers and stats regarding the participants.

This post can be used as a reference guide for the participants of Semi - Final 1.

Image: Sarah Louise Bennett/EBU

The stats are focused on historical data of Semi - Final Televoting for the Double Semi - Finals era (2008-2022) and of the Running order under the producers' era (2013-2022).

This is going to be a long post so prepare your coffee/tea/drink and enjoy

1. Norway

Qualifying Record: 11/13 ('08-'22) - 8/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 6.6 ('08-'22) - 6 ('13-'22)

Wins: 2 ('09, '19)

Top-3 Results: 3 (2-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 8th-3rd-1st-8th-4th

Running Order Record: 10/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 9.4

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (0-0-2)

A few words about the play: Norway is one of the Eurovision power houses. Most of the Televoting qualifications (7) were achieved with a Top-5 result. 

They currently hold the second-best qualifying record for the Double Semi - Finals era. Have not failed to qualify in their last 5 attempts.

Opening the Semi-Final could potentially cost a Top-3 finish for Norway but should be near there. There has not been a winner or runner-up yet performing in the opening slot in producers' era...

2. Malta

Qualifying Record: 6/14 ('08-'22) - 4/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11 ('08-'22) - 11.6 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 1 (0-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 18th-18th-10th-2nd-16th

Running Order Record: 2/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 13.3

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 0

A few words about the play: Malta is the country that has elevated the Jury saves to a state of art. Now that the juries are missing, they need to dig deep to save themselves, especially after performing in slot #2.

The last qualifier from slot #2 remains Poland back in Semi - Final 2 in 2016...

3. Serbia

Qualifying Record: 10/12 ('08-'22) - 6/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 7.6 ('08-'22) - 8.3 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 2 (1-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 11th-8th-7th-9th-1st

Running Order Record: 6/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 11.9

Running Order Wins: 1

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (1-0-1)

A few words about the play: Serbia performing a second year in a row in slot #3. Last year they won the Semi - Final (tie with Sweden). Can they do the same?

Probably not. Serbia is the definition of a borderline qualifier that usually makes it to the Final. 

4/6 qualifications have happened in the last 7 Semi-Finals which is good news. Producers' have slightly changed their approach altering strong with not so strong entries to balance things a bit.

4. Latvia

Qualifying Record: 3/14 ('08-'22) - 1/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 13.9 ('08-'22) - 13.2 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 1 (0-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 17th-15th-16th-16th-15th

Running Order Record: 8/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 10.9

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (0-1-3)

A few words about the play: The country that has struggled the most from the ones participating this year. Avoiding the last place would be their best result in the last 7 years!

The problem is that their entry is jury-based, and the running order does not help either.

5. Portugal

Qualifying Record: 7/11 ('08-'22) - 4/6 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 8.1 ('08-'22) - 7.3 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 2 (1-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 1st-x-12th-5th-6th

Running Order Record: 12/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.8

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 6 (2-1-3)

A few words about the play: #5 is the first strong slot for televoting friendly entries with 2 wins and 6 podium results in the producers' era. 

Portugal has a decent record and the combination of the two could secure the qualification.

The paradox is that the last five non qualifications out of the six in total since 2013 have happened in the last 5 Semi - Finals, currently the longest standing non qualification streak...

6. Ireland

Qualifying Record: 6/14 ('08-'22) - 3/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11.4 ('08-'22) - 11.9 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 0 

Recent Form ('17-'22): 12th-6th-17th-15th-11th

Running Order Record: 11/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.6

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 3 (2-1-0)

A few words about the play: Not much to say here. Ireland has been struggling a lot in the last two decades. It's one of the three countries that have not had a Top-3 result with the Televoters in the Double Semi - Finals era and the one with the worst best result of all 31 participants. 

Has finished 6th three times and that is it.

The running order per se has a decent record but like #5, it is used lately as a filler. Had not been Ukraine last year performing in #6 to break the NQ streak, it would be similar to #5, with 4 non qualifications in the last 5 Semi - Finals.

7. Croatia

Qualifying Record: 5/12 ('08-'22) - 4/ 7('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11 ('08-'22) - 10.7 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 0

Recent Form ('17-'22): 5th-17th-12th-9th-12th

Running Order Record: 10/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.2

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (0-3-1)

A few words about the play: The other country in the Semi - Final after Ireland with no Top-3 result in Televoting since '08. 

The nature of the song and the running order suggest that Croatia will make it this year. Most of the qualifications in this slot have happened with a Top-5 result. Not suggesting that Croatia will have one, but the slot will help increase the qualifying chances a bit.

Even though #7 has no win so far, it has a better ranking average than slots #5 and #6 that have 2 wins each.

8. Switzerland

Qualifying Record: 6/14 ('08-'22) - 5/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11.1 ('08-'22) - 10.1 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 2 (0-0-2)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 10th-15th-3rd-3rd-16th

Running Order Record: 11/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 9.5

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 1 (0-1-0)

A few words about the play: Switzerland was able to turn the ship around since 2019. The problem is that apart from 2019, all the other entries were relying on the Juries for a good result and the trend continues this year.

Switzerland might struggle being sandwiched between the chaos of Croatia and the Israeli Unicorn. This is the reason I currently have Switzerland as a borderline qualifier.

Apart from Iceland's second place in 2021 from that slot, all other qualifications finished 6th-10th. Something to keep in mind. 

9. Israel

Qualifying Record: 7/12 ('08-'22) - 4/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 10 ('08-'22) - 9 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 1 (0-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 4th-4th-x-5th-13th

Running Order Record: 16/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 6.3

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 6 (2-3-1)

A few words about the play: Israel got a similar treatment to Norway, being the first up tempo entry of the half that it was drawn. 

What if I told you that Israel's only Top-3 result since '08 is not Netta in 2018 (4th) but 'Golden Boy' back in 2015?

Israel is the only Eurovision Winner that finished outside Top-3 with a constituency in a Semi - Final.

Slot #9 has the best qualifying record and ranking average, but you need to remember that most of these times was used as the pimp slot of the first half. 

10. Moldova

Qualifying Record: 8/14 ('08-'22) - 4/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 8.6 ('08-'22) - 8.7 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 3 (0-3-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 2nd-2nd-13th-4th-2nd

Running Order Record: 8/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 10.2

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (0-1-1)

A few words about the play: Moldova has a very impressive recent record with the Televoters, having finished 2nd three times in the last five years! 

This is a good omen for Pasha unlike the performing slot which is among the worse of the second half and in total. If the current streak of a NQ followed by a Q continues, Moldova should make it.

If there were thoughts about Moldova making it to the Top-3, the running order hints that this will not be an easy task.

11. Sweden

Qualifying Record: 10/12 ('08-'22) - 7/7 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 5 ('08-'22) - 4.4 ('13-'22)

Wins: 4

Top-3 Results: 5 (4-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 4th-6th-6th-10th-1st

Running Order Record: 6/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 11.3

Running Order Wins: 0

Running Order Top-3 Results: 0

A few words about the play: An obvious attempt from the producers to balance the running order giving some room for Sweden to breathe between Israel and Finland. 

The country with the most Semi - Final wins (4) since '08 and we are talking about Televoting only. Two of them have brought the trophy back home. 'Tattoo' is currently the second favourite in the Semi - Final and it will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

Sweden needs to finish 4th or higher to become the best performance from slot #11. No win, no Top-3 and interestingly no last place either has come from here so far.

12. Azerbaijan

Qualifying Record: 9/13 ('08-'22) - 5/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 7.2 ('08-'22) - 9 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 4 (0-3-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 8th-12th-5th-6t-18th

Running Order Record: 13/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 7.7

Running Order Wins: 1

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (1-3-0)

A few words about the play: The sim cards era is now far away from Azerbaijan and EBU has ditched the latest Azeri hobby of doing shenanigans with the Juries as well. 

Azerbaijan was the first and probably the last country for some time that qualified to the Final getting 0 Televoting points and of course finishing last with Televoters last year.

Azerbaijan is struggling with Televoting since 2013 and they need to pull a miracle to make it this year, especially coming after Sweden.

The slot is ideal for a televote driven entry that unfortunately Azerbaijan is not.

13. Czechia

Qualifying Record: 4/9 ('08-'22) - 4/7 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 11.6 ('08-'22) - 9.7 ('13-'22)

Wins: 0

Top-3 Results: 2 (0-1-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 18th-2nd-6th-17th-3rd

Running Order Record: 12/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 7.8

Running Order Wins: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (2-0-0)

A few words about the play: It is truly amazing what Czechia does with its entries. They are either jury-driven or televote-driven but never balanced. My guess is that we have another Televote-driven entry that will sail to the Final. 

Most of the qualifications from #13 finished 4th-6th and this is where Czechia will land as well.

14. Netherlands

Qualifying Record: 6/13 ('08-'22) - 6/8 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 10.6 ('08-'22) - 7.5 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 2 (1-1-0)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 9th-12th-2nd-x-7th

Running Order Record: 13/18 / Second Last: 16/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.6 / Second Last: 6.7

Running Order Wins: 3 / Second Last: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (3-0-1) / Second Last: 3 (2-0-1)

A few words about the play: Netherlands is currently a borderline entry in terms of its qualification. In every Semi - Final since 2014 there was an entry that was saved by the Juries and the bell is ringing either for Switzerland or Netherlands. 

The good thing for Netherlands is the penultimate slot that has a 16/18 qualifications record. Many of these qualifications were ranked 6th-10th and that is also good news meaning that they got the boost they needed to qualify. 

Despite the underwhelming rehearsals, I still believe that Netherlands has a chance based on statistical facts.

15. Finland

Qualifying Record: 9/14 ('08-'22) - 7/9 ('13-'22)

Average Ranking: 9.2 ('08-'22) - 9.2 ('13-'22)

Wins: 1

Top-3 Results: 2 (1-0-1)

Recent Form ('17-'22): 10th-7th-17th-1st-6th

Running Order Record: 12/18 /  Last: 16/18

Running Order Average Ranking: 8.1 / Last: 4.9

Running Order Wins: 3 / Last: 2

Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (3-1-0) / Last: 8 (2-2-4)

A few words about the play: Finland is aiming for its second Semi - Final Televoting win in the last 3 years. There is some heavy competition in the Semi - Final and remains to be seen if they can get their momentum going in the Final as well.

Finland could not have asked for a better draw with Pimp Slot securing a podium finish in half of the qualifications and an impressive 14/18 Top-5 results!

Tomorrow I will be posting Semi - Final 2 and you can also the Pre-Rehearsals Power Rankings for Semi - Final 1 here and for Semi - Final 2 here plus some general statistics about all 31 participants and the running order here.

Know your numbers: The 2023 Semi - Finals edition

 

The most wonderful time of the year is finally here! And what a better way to get ready for the Eurovision week and your bets than having a look at some numbers that might be useful.

The rule change has given me the opportunity to check at the Televoting records and performances of the 31 nations participating in the 2 Semi - Finals for the double Semi - Finals era (2008-2022). The qualifying records mentioned are only about the Televoting as if the current rules were applied throughout that span. 

Regarding the running order, I am only presenting the 2013-2022 era where the producers are responsible for choosing the order of appearance. For the 2013 Semi - Finals I am using the average positions obtained by the countries because the actual split results were not officially revealed.

The double Semi - Finals Televoting stats bonanza (2008-2022)

Before digging into the specifics some interesting numbers for the whole 2008-2022 era.

The counties with the best qualifying records are:

Greece 13/14

Norway 11/13

Sweden 10/12

Serbia 10/12

Romania 10/13

The countries with the worst qualifying records are:

Latvia 3/14

San Marino 3/12

Georgia 4/13

Slovenia 5/14

Austria 4/10

There are 12 out of the 31 countries that have won a Semi - Final:

Sweden 4

Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Greece 2

Portugal, Netherlands, Finland, Romania, Belgium, Cyprus, Austria 1

28 countries have finished in Top-3. The only ones that have not made it yet are Croatia (4th is the best result), San Marino (4th as well) and Ireland (6th).

The Top-3 Leaders are:

Sweden 5

Azerbaijan, Denmark, Romania, Estonia, Belgium, Iceland, Greece 4

Norway, Moldova 3

The Producers' selecting the running order Televoting stats bonanza (2013-2022)

The slots with the most Qualifications are

#9 16/18

Pimp Slot 16/18

Penultimate slot 16/18

and the slots with the least Qualifications 

#2 2/18

#3 6/18

#11 6/18

What about the Winners?

The first half has produced only 4 Winners, while the second half 14!

#15 is the slot with the most wins: 3

#5, 9, 13, 14, 17 have 2 wins each. 

There are still 9 slots with no win: #1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 16, 18

The slots with the most podiums are:

#9 with 6 (2-3-1)

#5 with 6 (2-1-3)

#15 with 4 (3-1-0)

The slots without a podium finish are:

#2 and #11 with 5th being the best result so far

I mentioned the Winners but what about the last places? As you can imagine we have a fully reversed picture, with the first half having 15 last places and the second half just 3!

#3 leads with 6 last places, followed by #4 with 3. Slots #5 and #14 have 2.

Even though #2 has the worst qualifying record, it has just 1 last place and the only second half slots with a last place are #12 and #14.

And what about this year's Semi - Finalists?

I have created a list with the average Televoting Rankings for each Semi - Final. The first average is for the whole double Semi - Finals era ('08-'22) and the second one for the producers' era ('13-'22).

Semi - Final 1 ('08-'22 vs '13-'22)

1. 🇸🇪 5 - 4.4

2.🇳🇴 6.6 - 6

3. 🇦🇿 7.2 - 9

4. 🇷🇸 7.6 - 8.3

5. 🇵🇹 8.1 - 7.3

6.🇲🇩8.6 - 8.7

7. 🇫🇮 9.2 - 9.2

8. 🇮🇱 10 - 9

9. 🇳🇱 10.6 - 7.5

10.🇭🇷 11 - 10.7

11.🇲🇹 11 - 11.6

12.🇨🇭 11.1 - 10.1

13. 🇮🇪 11.4 - 11.9

14. 🇨🇿 11.6 - 9.7

15. 🇱🇻 13.9 - 13.2

Semi - Final 2 ('08-'22 -- '13-'22)

1. 🇬🇷 6.1 - 9.1

2. 🇷🇴 6.3 - 6.9

3. 🇦🇲 7.4 - 8

4. 🇱🇹 8.1 - 7.6

5. 🇩🇰 8.1 - 9.8

6. 🇮🇸 8.2 - 10.1

7. 🇦🇺 8.3

8. 🇵🇱 8.8 - 6.5

9. 🇪🇪 9 - 8.7

10. 🇨🇾 9.5 - 7.5

11. 🇦🇱 9.9 - 11.2

12. 🇦🇹 10.6 - 10.1

13. 🇧🇪 11 - 8.9

14. 🇬🇪 11.2 - 13

15. 🇸🇮 12.4 - 12.2

16. 🇸🇲 12.8 - 11.7

I will post two detailed articles about each Semi - Final and the Running order in the next days just before the start of the Jury rehearsals. Stay tuned...

Eurovision 2023 Betting Book and my betting resolution for this year (14.05)

 Let's talk about bets baby...

And now the time that most of you were waiting for. The betting/tipping side of my blog.

I have already posted my thoughts about what went right and wrong last year here.

This season I have tried a different approach regarding my personal book. The main different is that I have placed a small number of bets so far and have decided to place the vast majority of my bets after I have a picture from rehearsals and the shows. 

The good news is that I will be able to watch the rehearsals and the jury shows so I will have a better picture of how the things shape up.

The other diversification for the year is the short price of Sweden in the winning market that I find repulsive to place a bet on.

Sweden is the grand favourite and the most probable winner by far, but my betting philosophy does not allow me to place a bet on them on such a short price. For that reason, the volume of my bets on the Winner market is much lower than in the past, mostly on countries that could perform well with Juries, and they offer a chance for a profitable trade, or countries that could have some potential with their staging and for the moment are long shots because of the unknown factor.

The positive aspect of my strategy is that I will not carry all the way to the Final a heavy weight of bets which potentially will be lost or have no value.

Every year I try to reduce the amount of the bets that I am tipping, most of the times with no luck, but this is the year that I will keep my promise and will keep things tight.

The Book 

I will not change the format that I have used last year which helped a bit. 

The Book will consist of 1000 units, 100 for each Semi - Final and 800 for the Final. The units from the settled bets from Semi - Final 1 can be used in Semi - Final 2 or the Final, the ones from Semi - Final 2 for the Final.

I will try not to spend more than the 100 already allocated for Semi - Final 2 and use the settled ones from SF1 straight to the Final unless there is a terrific opportunity.

The Book will be updated every time there is a new tip and I will be tweeting about it as well. Every bet will be followed either by a link with the thinking behind its selection or by a short analysis.

Last year there has been a debate whether I should be using the exchange's odds or the bookies' odds. The readers of my blog come from various parts of Europe and around the world so it would not be fair to use only the one or the other and it is also impossible for me to calculate my winnings or loses this way. 

I personally use both entities and tip bets that are available in both entities most of the times. I will be always using the odds that are available at the time I post my tips to settle this one. I know it is not fair for someone who does not have the exchange option on their country, but betting is always about finding the best value.

Semi - Final 1

Israel SF Top-3 @ 2.46 (Betfair) x 50 units

Netherlands Not to Qualify @ 1.91 (Bet365 -2.14 in Betfair) x 40 units

Moldova Not to Qualify @ 8.00 (Bet365 - 8.50 in Betfair) x 10 units

Units Invested: 100

Returned Units: 208.6 units

Semi - Final 2

Greece to Qualify @2.92 (Betfair) x 75 units

Armenia to Win the Semi - Final @ 6.80 (Betfair) x 25 units

Units Invested:100

Returned Units: 0

Final

Israel to Finish in Top-3 @ 3.15 (betfair exchange) x 600 units

Sweden to Win and Israel come Second @ 10.00 (betfair sportsbook) x 100 units

Israel to Win @ 60 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

Switzerland to Finish Top-10 @ 5.50 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

Spain to Finish Top-5 @ 3.50 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

and now the fun bets

Cyprus to Finish last @ 130 (betfair exchange) x 15.6 units

Israel to Win the Tele Vote @ 29 (betfair exchange) x 20 units

Invested Units: 885.6 Units

Returned Units: 1890 Units

Semi - Finals Total Investment: 200 Units

Semi - Finals Total Returns: 208.6 Units, 

ROI: +4.03%

Final Total Investment: 885.6 Units

Final Total Returns: 1890 Units

ROI: +113.4%

Eurovision 2023 Total Investment: 1085.6 Units

Eurovision 2023 Total Returns: 2098.6 Units

ROI: +93.3%

Semi - Finals Tips: 2/5, 40%

Final Tips: 1/7, 14.3%

Eurovision 2023 Total Tips: 3/12, 25%

Eurovision 2023: Semi - Final 2: Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings

 

If someone asked you to compare this year's Semi -Finals' quality with a football team, Semi - Final 1 would have been Manchester City/ Real Madrid, Semi - Final 2 would have been Sheriff Tiraspol/ Maccabi Haifa...

Odds wise, there is a possibility to have just a Top-10 entry from this Semi to the Final and that sums it up.

Even to that poor field however there are some clear favourites to proceed and a few entries that do not stand a chance.

Before starting the rankings, a reminder that you can find the post for Semi - Final 1 here and the post for the winning paths of the odds' leaders here. You can also click on each country's name for the first thoughts.

1. Armenia

What I think it will happen: Still flying under the radar, missing all pre-parties, and having just a few bits of information about the presentation. I am not sold in Austria, and I do think that Armenia has more staging potential. The early draw is a disadvantage as well, but I do think that Armenia is a locked Top-3 in Semi- Final and could bring a similar result to Russia '15, Australia '16, Belgium '17.

If I had to choose a country out of the current Top-5 that could end up there in the Final, Armenia is my pick easily. 

To win Semi @13 and be Top-3 in the Semi @ 1.81 both have some value, especially the second one compared to Austria's odds for the win.

Disclaimer: I do have Armenia already in my book in both markets, plus Winner/Top-4/Top-5/Top-10 in the Final

I would be shocked if: Does not finish in Top-3

2. Australia

What I think it will happen: Having the Pimp slot and an entry that could set the stage on fire. It is the typical Semi - Final 2 pimp slot entry that does finish in Top-3 and then used as an opener for the Final.

Australia does not have a great Televoting appeal in the Contest but has managed to win a Semi - Final twice ('16, '19) and finished second last year, based on its jury appeal though.

I struggle to find a way that 'Promise' finishes lower than Top-4. Another one that goes under the radar and let's not forget that Australia does have some jury appeal that could become handy in the Final.

I would be shocked if: Australia finishes 5th or worse.

3. Cyprus

What I think it will happen: Cyprus is expected to sail through to the Final and it has enough allies in the Semi - Final to do it being part of the Top-3. The entry that starts with a secured threshold of 35-40 points and could get many more. Not sure about its fate in the Final but this Semi is a different beast.

I would be shocked if: Cyprus is not in Top-6.

4. Slovenia

What I think it will happen: Another certain qualifier that depending on the circumstances could land anywhere between 2nd and 6th. Joker Out will also have the chance to win the crowd and secure their spot in the Final. 

Semi Final Top-3 @ 3.20 has value.

I would be shocked if: Slovenia does not qualify.

5. Austria

What I think it will happen: The favourite to win the Semi - Final and I have it 5th? Well...I do like the song in general but there are many red flags there to back it at such a short price, currently @ 1.63.

I am aware that there are no Juries in the Semi - Final but I do struggle to find a decent staging or choreography for this one and not sure how many viewers will relate to or understand the message of the song. 

I think that WTHIE will be the biggest victim of the video-clip effect for 2023 and will under-achieve spectacularly.

I was keeping an open mind for this one with the Eurojury results coming in in case I missed something but if the jurors are not impressed by its video-clip which is its selling point then they are heading for a car crash. 

Top-10 in the Final is not secured in my opinion.

I would be shocked if: Austria wins the Semi - Final.

6. Lithuania

What I think it will happen: I might have underestimated Lithuania at the beginning of the season. 'Stay' is cheesy and generic but there is some kind of serenity that the song brings, the running order and some friends will be enough to secure a place in the Final and there they will meet more friends and diaspora...

A fun bet for the Top-3 in Semi - Final @ 5 and for the Semi - Final Win @ 100 is acceptable.

I would be shocked if: Lithuania fails to qualify.

7. Belgium

What I think it will happen: Another grower during the national finals' season. Belgium is not my cup of tea, and I was harsh when I shared my first thoughts but even back then I have mentioned that the qualification is not out of question. 

Three months after and Belgium is heading to the Final and if you consider Eurojury as a reliable metric, Belgium could be an outsider for the Top-15.

I would be shocked if: Belgium wins the Semi - Final or finishes in Bottom-3.

8. Poland

What I think it will happen: The Top-7 has secured a spot in the Final and Poland is the first entry on my list that could end up the other way around.

Blanka is the guilty pleasure of this year, and it has the Polish diaspora behind it. This will be the key for its success. We need to see the staging to have a better idea, but Poland and Televoting diaspora is the perfect mix.

I would be shocked if: Poland finishes in Top-3.

9. Greece

What I think it will happen: Greece is the fourth entry after Cyprus, Poland and Lithuania that has a head start because of their allies and diaspora. Quality wise is the weakest Greek entry for a while but could still make it to the Final. Failing to qualify would not be a surprise.

I would be shocked if: Greece is placed in Top-5.

10. Georgia

What I think it will happen: Georgia is in trouble and the main reason is the absence of an actual song or its strange structure. It is made to highlight Iru's vocal abilities but there is nothing more than that.

An epic staging could hide some of its weaknesses but if they fail to create one, Georgia will continue the long streak of non-qualifications. 

Lay has the best value of all non-qualification odds in both Semis for 2023.

I would be shocked if: Georgia is near Top-5.

11. Estonia

What I think it will happen: Estonia's qualification will be a coin toss. Personally, I am leaning on the non-qualification side purely because, in every Semi - Final since 2014, there is at least one entry that is saved by Juries and Estonia is the one that fits that criterion. 

Without Juries might be the easy target and despite its quality it might fail to qualify. It will be easier in the Final if it gets there having the Jury boost.

I would be shocked if: Estonia finishes in Bottom-3.

12. Denmark

What I think it will happen: The last country in my list with a chance to qualify but the odds against them. The early slot and Denmark's bad record with similar vanilla songs in recent history suggest that qualifying might be out of reach. They will fight with Greece and Georgia for the last qualifying spot.

Lay @1.78 has value.

I would be shocked if: Denmark finishes higher than 9th.

13. Iceland

What I think it will happen: A generic repetitive song that lacks, at least in national final, any form of choreography that could help it and lift its status.

'Power' ironically is not powerful enough to find an audience that could vote massively for it and send it to the Final.

I would be shocked if: Iceland qualifies finsihing higher than 10th.

14. Albania

What I think it will happen: Albania is missing most of its allies and 'Duje' is not the type of entry that will force the Televoters to pick up the phone. Maybe it is time for Albania to try a different recipe.

I would be shocked if: Albania qualifies.

15. Romania

What I think it will happen: Could Romania do it again and qualify solely getting points from its diaspora? The answer is no.

Anything better than Bottom-3 will be tremendous success.

I would be shocked if: Romania qualifies.

16. San Marino

What I think it will happen: If there was a bet for last place in Semi - Finals, San Marino would have been money in the bank.

I would be shocked if: San Marino will not finish last.

And this is a wrap. I have 7 certain qualifiers: Armenia, Australia, Cyprus, Slovenia, Austria, Lithuania, and Belgium.

Poland, Greece, Georgia, Estonia, and Denmark will battle for the remaining 3 positions. 

Of course, rehearsals are on the way and many things could change but I highly doubt that there could be another country to join the battle and make it to the Final.

I will also post my book for the season in the next couple of days which I will be updating until the end of the Grand Final. 

For the following week, the plan is to post some stats for the Semi - Finals and then of course the coverage of the rehearsals and the jury shows here and in twitter.

Stay tunned...

Eurovision 2023: Semi - Final 1: Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings

 What's another year? Rehearsals will begin in a few days, and it is time for the Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings. 

Last year I had 9/10 correct qualifiers for both Semi-Finals in my pre-rehearsals that turned to 8/10 and 7/10 when the time for the actual prediction came so you better bookmark these posts.

Semi - Final 1 is the shortest one since 2014 with just 15 participants and at the same time one of the fullest in terms of quality.

Three of the Top-4 favourites are performing here and if we believe the current odds, 4 or 5 entries will make it to the Top-10, with the other 4 coming from the direct qualifiers and 1 or 2 from Semi - Final 2.

There is a big chance that Finland will win the Semi-Final because of the 100% Televoting scoring system and then have a reverse in Grand Final with Sweden winning the Contest.

It has happened in the past, so we need to be open-minded. Clicking on each country's name, you will be able to read my first thoughts for each one.

So here we go...

1. Finland

What I think it will happen: Performing in the Pimp Slot will give a massive boost to Finland that is also the big favourite to win Televoting in the Final. The last Pimp Slot entry that won Televoting in a Semi - Final was 'Fuego' back in 2018 when 'Toy' finished just 4th! with the televoters but managed to win the contest. Maybe that is an omen for Sweden.

Finland's win is currently @1.59 which I find very short, but this is the hot favourite.

I would be shocked if: Finland does not finish in Top-2.

2. Sweden

What I think it will happen: Loreen is the one to beat and she will set the tone from the Semi - Final. For those thinking that Sweden just waits for Saturday 13th May to be coronated as Eurovision winner, the Semi - Final win @ 3.60 is the only Swedish odd this year that has an actual value. Cannot see a way Sweden will fail to be in the Top-2. If that happens - we will find out after the Grand Final - then winning the contest will be out of question.

I would be shocked if: Sweden is out of the Top-2.

3. Israel

What I think it will happen: One of the biggest X-factors so far for the year. The one though with the most potential. Noa Kirel has star quality and Israel does know how to stage a song. Winning the Semi - Final @ 70 has some excellent value, and the same goes for finishing in Top-3 @ 2.4.

It has a better running order than Norway (#9 has 4 podium finishes including 2 wins since 2014 while #1 has only 2 third places), no juries are involved, and the Nordics will have to split the high scores among themselves leaving someone short.

I would be shocked if: Israel does not deliver in staging and fails to finish in Top-4.

4. Norway

What I think it will happen: It is very possible for Norway to finish in the same position in the Final as well. Eurojury results so far imply that Norway could be a potential Top-5 with Juries and the same could happen with Televoting as well. Opening the Semi - Final might be tough in terms of getting a Top-3 and a good draw in the Final. Will fight with Israel and Czechia for the third spot though.

I would be shocked if: Norway fails to finish in Top-5.

5. Czechia

What I think it will happen: Czechia has lost the momentum it gained in early February, that now feels like ages ago. However, Vesna have improved a lot during the pre-parties and if the staging offers a part of the epicness of the video clip, then Czechia could be back in the Top-10 discussion. It will get some support from the Ukrainian diaspora/supporters as well, we still do not know in what extent.

I would be shocked if: Czechia does not qualify easily.

6. Croatia

What I think it will happen: Croatia is the biggest winner of the rule change. They have taken the right decision to go all-in or go home. They might struggle a bit and finish in a lower position but missing the Final is not a very probable scenario. There it will be a different story but for sure they will not leave the Contest unnoticed.

I would be shocked if: They fail to qualify placed 12th or worse.

7. Moldova

What I think it will happen: I must admit that I cannot read this entry so far. I am aware of its Televoting potential; however, I do find it extremely repetitive and very lazy. It gives me France '22 vibes and it is sandwiched between Israel and Sweden and could be completely forgotten when people start to vote. Had it as a borderline non qualifier but now in my Top-10 but I do find its qualifying odds @ 1.11 extremely short.

I would be shocked if: Moldova finishes in Top-3 or Bottom-3.

8. Serbia

What I think it will happen: We are officially entering in the grey area. Serbia is the definition of a borderline qualifier, always near the very last qualifying spot. The tradition will continue this year as well. The entry has lots of potential and needs to be better than in the national final but even that might be enough.

I would be shocked if: Serbia could enter Top-2.

9. Portugal

What I think it will happen: Another entry that could go both ways. I have it among the qualifiers just because it does have a Televoting appeal. Will not be surprised though if it fails to qualify. One to watch in rehearsals not per se but to see if it sits down well with the entries next to it.

I would be shocked if: Portugal enters Top-5 or finishes in Bottom-3.

10. Switzerland

What I think it will happen:  A potential Top-5 with the Juries in Grand Final which might not make it there. Every Semi - Final since 2014 has at least one entry that was saved by the jurors and qualified to the Final. Switzerland might pay the price for the rule change, but I do think it has enough quality to make it and send Netherlands to the dark side. If Iceland made it last year, why not Switzerland?

I would be shocked if: Switzerland makes it to the Top-3.

11. Netherlands

What I think it will happen: The song feels like something is missing and the same could be said about the vocal abilities and chemistry of the duo, at least in the pre-parties. AVROTROS seems to be in panic and these are not good signs. They have time to turn it around, but I highly doubt it.

I would be shocked if: They finish 8th or higher.

12. Latvia

What I think it will happen: Latvia is the last entry that does have a decent chance to qualify in the Final. It will be a struggle though because they need to put Serbia, Netherlands, Switzerland and or Portugal behind them. An introvert song that might find an audience to vote for it.

I would be shocked if: Anything better than 10th it will be a surprise.

13. Malta

What I think it will happen: Malta will try to avoid the last place and it has a decent chance to make it. Qualifying to the Final is out of reach in my opinion.

I would be shocked if: Malta makes it to the Final.

14. Ireland 

What I think it will happen: Avoiding the last place is the only goal.

I would be shocked if: Ireland makes it to the Final.

15. Azerbaijan

What I think it will happen: Instant karma for Azerbaijan which was the main reason that the voting rule changed.

I would be shocked if: They finish higher than Bottom-3.

And that concludes my Power Rankings for Semi - Final 1. 

There is a group of 6 certain qualifiers: Finland, Sweden, Israel, Norway, Czechia, Croatia followed by a group of 6 countries that fight for the 4 remaining tickets: Moldova, Serbia, Portugal, Switzerland, Netherlands, Latvia.

I will be posting my Power Rankings for Semi - Final 2 in the next few days and will do the same with my betting book as well. You might find the first bet of the season as well there...

Rehearsals start in a few days, and it will be interesting to see how the new reality will look like.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Armenia

 

First Thoughts:

Armenia is the ultimate dark horse of the season.

It is the entry that has impressed me the most for this season, which is the reason why I left it for the end.

'Future Lover' grabs your attention from the first second and adds layer after layer to build up the tension.

Is the entry that has enormous potential if the staging is right, the only one this year that could give us a Jamala tree moment.

Coming from Semi - Final 2 and performing from slot #2 might be the reason Armenia is still flying under the radar.

It is an entry that will come alive on stage and its odds in all markets right now have considerable value.

I consider Armenia a solid Top-10 entry, a solid Top-3 in Semi - Final 2 and an outsider for the Top-4/5.

It reminds me of...

Australia '16, Armenia ' 14, 

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 41/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.5%- 2.5%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

9th-12th

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question.

100% to qualify, Top-2 in Semi - Final

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Armenia is my personal winner, so a biased alert is here. However I do think it has the potential to be Top-4/5 and if the perfect storm could even go higher. I do have it on my potential/possible/probable winner list...