Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Switzerland

 

Voyage - Zoë Më

Switzerland has finally made it but the recipe for success has not changed. They have focused on carving a path for victory through the Juries, having won the vote twice ('21, '24) and they are not looking back.

'Voyage' is their fifth consecutive entry that will be focusing in getting the most out of that constituency. It is a beautiful ballad that with an ethereal staging could be as high as Top-3/5. For the moment I do believe that the Top-10 there is secured.

The Public vote is a different story though. Switzerland got lucky with their draw and they will be performing at #19 which could boost their televote score a bit. The problem is that this type of entries usually score in the 0-25 points region and Switzerland will be suffering from the 'Host syndrome' as well. 

 Zoë is an excellent vocalist and that could help Switzerland's cause. If they manage to secure that Top-5 spot with the Juries, then they could finish in the overall Top-10 even with 0 Public vote points which feels very harsh though. 

Either way, Switzerland got what they deserved last year and any result in Eurovision '25 will not matter. 

However, they should be in the Top-10 this year as well and they do have a decent chance succeeding

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Switzerland finishing in Top-5 with the Juries and get 15-20 Public vote points that secures them the 10th place

Televoting Potential: 4/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 8.5/10

Total: 35.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.2% - 0.5%

Best case scenario:

6th-8th

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 125-250 - PV: 20-50 - Tot: 145-300

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Switzerland a solid Jury vote Top-5?

You can hear my thoughts about Swityerland in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Germany

 

Baller - Abor & Tynna

An anti-climactic and super complicated national final that ended with the Germans opting for the most German entry of all.

'Baller' is the type of song that Germany should be sending to Eurovision more often, highlighting their clubbing/alternative music culture that could be their trademark and would be acknowledged both by jurors and the public.

This is an entry that could land anywhere and will rely on creating some hype during the Eurovision week to boost their chances. It will need  a different staging from the one they presented in the national final to avoid being blanked/downvoted by the Juries.

The make it or break it factor for Germany will be their public appeal. They do have an entry that deserves to be in the Public vote Top-10. Tynna has lots of charisma and the duo oozes authenticity which is highly appreciated and rewarded lately.

On the other hand, I would not be surprised if they fail to create some buzz and finish 22nd, but if I had to choose any of the two scenarios, I would be more confident for a Top-10 result. 

With a good running order in the Final and a great staging they could be the breath of fresh air and could fill in the gap between the televote magnets and the jury oriented entries. 

Germany might be the pleasant surprise of this year!

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Germany getting a mid-table result with the Juries and a Top-10 result with the Public vote to make it in the overall Top-10, finishing 8th-9th.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 36.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.3%

Best case scenario:

Top-5

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 20-75 - PV: 75-125 - Tot: 95-200

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Will Juries crash the German hopes for a Top-10 result? Could the Public vote be enough to secure it?

You can hear my thoughts about Germany in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Azerbaijan

 

Run With U - Mamagama

Has the time to end the non-qualification streak come? Azerbaijan is finally sending a competitive entry that might have some appeal to the Public vote.

'Run With U' is an up-tempo entry with some traditional elements that if performed/staged adequately could secure a spot in the Final.

The structural problem that the Azeri NQ entries had was that they were missing a call for action/they were very in the middle of the road. We might have a similar situation this year as well, but the good news for Azerbaijan is that they have their chance to showcase their quality on stage on a head to head battle versus Belgium, performing before them, and San Marino that is performing after them. If they can steal some of the spark of the other two entries, the ticket is theirs.

They are still a borderline entry but now leaning towards the qualification. If they make it to the Final, I do not expect anything ground-breaking but they could secure a mid-table score with the Juries to avoid finishing in the Bottom-5. 

The good news for them is that after 2 non-competitive years they have shown some signs of life in Eurovision.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Azerbaijan qualifying to the Final finishing 9th-10th and then grab 30-40 Jury points from friends and a few Public vote points from some neighbours to finish 19th-21st.

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 34.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Qualification for the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-55

F: J: 25-50 - PV: 15-40 - Tot: 40-90

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Azerbaijan hopeless for qualification or have we jumped the gun too fast?

You can hear my thoughts about Azerbaijan in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Netherlands

 

C'est La Vie - Claude

Netherlands is back! And is aiming for the top!

After last year's drama, AVROTROS opted to go back to the recipe that has brought them the win back in '19 and a 2nd place in '14. 

Claude is a charismatic performer, I dare to say the most charismatic of the '25 class and will bring on stage his personal story sending a message of hope and faith.

'C'est La Vie' is a very smart entry, aiming to keep it simple but impactful. They have solved the French language barrier by using simple wording that is understood even by the non-French speakers, something that France did as well with Voila'. 

The aim of the entry is to tick the correct Jury boxes and get a solid start finishing Top-2/3 with them and then try to get some momentum going with the Public vote.

I do believe that the Jury part is a lock for them, hence my enthusiasm and support in Winner's market and I do feel confident that the song will click with the viewers as well.

Netherlands is what I consider a 'low-maintenance' contender, that does not need to win or landslide any of the two constituencies but just needs to be Top-2/4 with them to be in the game till the very end. 

This is the main reason that I do have Netherlands in my Tier 1 entries. I could see them score 250-275 points with the Juries and a slightly smaller score with the Public vote, something like 200-225. 

My data suggest that the entries which get points from the vast majority of countries in the Jury vote, and Netherlands does fit that description, also get voted in Public vote and this is the recipe for a great result. 

Switzerland and France last year finished 5th and 4th in Public vote, scoring 220-221 points but both were voted by all countries in the Televote! 

For all these reasons, I do consider Netherlands a secure Top-4 entry that has the potential to surprise us and win the Contest.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Netherlands finishing in Top-2 in the Jury vote near the 300 points threshold and in Top-5 with the Public vote and reach the magic 500 points number that could land them the victory.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 9.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 43.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

5% - 12.5%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

Top-6

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 80-120

F: J: 225-300 - PV: 150-225 - Tot: 425 - 525

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Netherlands a contender or a Public vote flop?

You can hear my thoughts about Netherlands in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Armenia

 

Survivor - Parg

One of the most anticlimactic national finals of the season where a very average entry won because of the total lack of any competition happened in Armenia.

'Survivor' feels like a Melfest reject from 10-15 years ago forgotten in G:son's old laptop that Armenia decided to buy on a clearance sale...

The song is lacking purpose, a call for action and melody and merit wise should not make the cut for the Final.

But...this is Armenia in the Semi - Final with the most friends/allies included and they start their campaign with 30-35 points in their pocket from just a handful of countries (Georgia, France, Greece, Israel) and need 15-20 more from the rest of the field to secure qualification.

Furthermore, they have the ideal running order slot at #5, the one that holds the best record of qualifications (PV only)  for the first half in producers' era (15/22) and in 15/16 countries Semi - Final line-ups (7/9). 

Coming after a sequence of weak entries as well will help their cause even more and for all these reasons, Armenia is a lock for the Final I reckon.

The Final is a different story and Armenia is ticking every box of an entry that will not stand a chance to do well with any of the two constituencies. Diaspora will be there to secure a result just out of the Bottom-5 and this is the realistic goal for them.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Armenia securing qualification and then getting lost/forgotten/used as a filler in the Final, finishing 18th thanks to their diaspora.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 20.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.002%

Best case scenario:

17th-20th

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 35-55

F: J: 20-35 - PV: 30-60 - Tot: 50-95

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Armenia qualify as a result of their diaspora's and friends' support?

You can hear my thoughts about Poland in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Australia

 

Milkshake Man - Go-Jo

Australia has taken a U-turn for their Eurovision '25 campaign trying to work something out for their Public vote shortcomings.

'Milkshake Man' had an impressive drop in odds when launched trading as low as high teens but then reality kicked in and drifted all the way to the '000s. 

The song is trying to balance between being a joke entry or a credible high energy fun song. It could go both ways and we have to wait for the staging to rate this one.

Australia does have a good connection with Juries and that might make their task a bit easier but I am not sure at what length the jurors will go with this one, having many similar entries of that genre. 

Being in the same Semi - Final with Malta and Finland might give Australia the boost they need if they stage their entry better. 

Qualifying to the Final is a certainty, belonging to the weakest part of both Semis. The Final is a different beast and there is a chance that they might get the 'No Rules' treatment if they miss to find the golden balance.

A mid-table result 13th-17th feels safe for the moment.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Cannot judge this one until I see it on stage so I will stick to 13th-17th .

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 37/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-0.2%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 70-100

F: J: 30-75 - PV: 50-125 - Tot: 80-200

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Australia a Top-10 contender or No Rules 2.0?

You can hear my thoughts about Australia in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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