Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - France

 

maman - Louane

The now or never time has finally come for France, aiming once more for their first win since 1977!

It has been a decade now that France is trying to win, using different recipes and approaches, some times successfully some times not.

This is the year that everything seems to heading to their direction and they have the golden chance to secure their 6th win.

Louane is a very competent artist with some great vocals and a strong staging presence, singing a timeless power ballad about her mother, a topic that touches a chord.

The aim is to win the Juries or be Top-2 with them and use the staging to create the sentiments/call for action for the public.

If France manages to secure a score near the 200 points threshold, I reckon the win is theirs. The 50/50 era voting patterns suggest than when an entry is voted by 33+ countries in the Jury voting then they will receive points from a similar number of countries in the Public vote as well, a pattern that secured Switzerland the win last year. 

Momentum wise, France is the only country that has been in the Top-3 with both constituencies in different years that has not won the Contest yet ( Juries: 3rd/'16, 2nd/'21, 2nd/'24 - PV: 3rd/'21). Last year finished 4th as well with the Public, a good sign for a country that is contending. 

I will add more points to my contenders article that I will publish next, but the resume' is that France in my opinion is/should be the market leader and the song to beat. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

It will all come down to the staging and the hype that will be created after the Semi - Finals. France will either win or finish 3rd. It will depend on who between France and Netherlands will have the biggest appeal with the Public, assuming that these two countries will be leading the Jury voting with a large gap between them and the rest of the field. 

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 9.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 10/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 44.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

15%-20%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

5th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 250-350 - PV: 150-250 - Tot: 400-600

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Does France have the Public vote appeal to secure the win?

You can hear my thoughts about France in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Israel

 

New Day Will Rise - Yuval Raphael

The elephant in the room is back and I do not believe we will have another Rai Semi-Final result leak to give us a heads up, but everyone knows now.

I do reckon that Israel got the memo from EBU and is sending an entry that is good enough to secure a Top-4/5 result but will struggle to find a path for the win.

'NDWR' is a classic ballad with a strong vocalist that has a strong story/narrative. 

Any normal year this would have been an overall Top-10 entry with a Top-5/6 result with the Juries and a mid-table result with the Public.

However, we know that Juries will be very cautious with Israel, trying to balance their Public vote appeal. I do expect a better score than last year but I don't think the Jurors will go all the way so 60-80 points is what I expect. To have a path they will need a minimum of 175 points and that is almost impossible.

And now the million dollar question; how high will the Public vote score be? Last year they scored 300+ points in a very heated year, with a stronger entry and a clear incentive for the diaspora and supporters to vote and make a political statement.

Will the same thing happen again? There is a chance it could but I think 200-250 is what we should be expecting for them in best case scenario.

Last year they forced EBU to take measures and minimise as much as possible their impact in PV with the running order in the Final.

New policies and rules are in place as well to make sure this will not turn into another political battlefield.

Israel and Ukraine are the two no-goes for EBU and for that reason, Israel is a lock Top-4/7 but has no path for victory.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Israel finishing Top-3 in the Semi-Final, then get a first half draw and finish 5th. Juries will be making sure they don't get a victory path.

Televoting Potential: 9.5/10

Jury Potential: 3/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 35/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1% - 3%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

8th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 120-160

F: J: 40-80 - PV: 150-250 - Tot: 190-330

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Will Juries give Israel a path for the win?

You can hear my thoughts about Israel in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Czechia

 

Kiss Kiss Goodbye - ADONXS

There is the notion that Czechia will do well this year and will be a candidate for a Top-10 result.

There have been lots of discussions about the dance break, that has been added to the last minute of the song and whether that adds something to the song.

'KKG' is another example of half-baked entry, having a good initial idea/plan and then mod-way through realise that it gets so repetitive that they had to add the dance break to mask it somehow.

For that reason I do believe that the dance break works but this is not the songs problem.

I had the chance to watch the entry live in London Eurovision Party and was not impressed with the vocals or the choreo, which seems to be the final product.

Czechia is a borderline entry that will fight head to head with Denmark and Luxembourg for the last ticket. 

It is a matter of who performs better that night and stills the show. My concern is that Czechia is one for the fans and not the casual viewers.

If they qualify, I do not think they have enough to break in the Top-10 with any of the two constituencies and for that reason, Top-10 is out of question. A 14th-18th placing feels more natural.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Czechia finishing 10th-11th in the Semi - Final, currently in my non-qualifiers list.

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 31.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-0.2%

Best case scenario:

Top-15

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 35-65

F: J: 20-50 - PV: 30-50 - Tot: 50-100

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Czechia: A borderline qualifier or a bust?

You can hear my thoughts about Czechia in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Croatia

 

Poison Cake - Marko Bosnjak

Croatia '25 is one of the biggest downgrades in the modern Eurovision history going from finishing 2nd to the Final straight to Bottom-3 if not last in the Semi-Final.

'Poison Cake' won Dora '25 in a very unconventional way, winning Juries!!! and finishing 4th in the Public vote, which is never good news for an entry in a Eurovision Semi-Final.

The fact that they opted for a Bambie Thug rip off when they had Baby Lasagna's blueprint still puzzles me!

Marko was shaky at times in Dora as well and I struggle to find something positive to say about this entry.

They might get some points from Slovenia but I doubt there will be someone else to take a bite from their 'Poison Song'...

I hope this year's result to awaken their broadcaster and makensome changes in their jurors selection process...

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Croatia closing their Public vote magnet trilogy, missing qualification and opening a new circle in their Eurovision journey. Will be impressed if they can escape Bottom-3.

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 2/10

My Opinion: 3/10

Total: 17/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

None

Best case scenario:

23rd

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 10-30

F: J: 10-25 - PV: 25-30 - Tot: 35-55

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Croatia the weakest entry in the Eurovision '25 line-up?

You can hear my thoughts about Croatia in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Norway

 

Lighter - Kyle Alessandro

Norway deserves my respect for what they have done this year in MGP.

They had a mediocre line-up but managed to upgrade the only half-decent song they had in the studio version into a most certain qualifier to the Final.

'Lighter' is a generic dance track that we have listened hundreds of times that somehow became serviceable thanks to Kyle Alessandro's charisma on stage. This is the type of entries that thrive in a Public vote only Semi-Final before they get completely lost in the Final. 

I think that Norway is an almost certain qualifier, but they have not checked their ticket yet. If the latter happens though, I struggle to find a way Norway could avoid Bottom-5, with an entry that will be near the bottom with Juries and coming from a Public vote saturated region that has better packages to offer.

I would not be surprised if Norway could finish last for a second year in a row and that will be one of my fun bets when the market opens.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Norway making it to the Final and then fight head to head with Spain to avoid the last place.

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 24/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.002%

Best case scenario:

Avoiding Bottom-3 in Final

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 30-60

F: J: 5-15 - PV: 10-35 - Tot: 15-50

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Norway a lock for the Final?

You can hear my thoughts about Norway in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Latvia

 

Bur Man Laimi - Tautumeitas

If there is one country in the Eurovision '25 line-up that self-sabotaged themselves so badly that is Latvia.

They had at least three other songs that could have secured qualification and a decent result.

Instead they have decided to take the path of virtue that will not carry them too far...

'Bur Man Laimi' is a novelty/experimental entry based on the harmonies of the six girls but fails to grab the attention of the audience.

This is a song that is not competitive at all and is my favourite to finish last in the Semi - Final. Latvia's recent results point to that direction as well.

It is interesting to have this type of genres/entries in Eurovision but result-wise is counter productive as they have no impact on a 100% PV Semi - Final. 

This is a lost opportunity for Latvia to build on last year's result and create a qualifying streak instead of returning back to their introversion state.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Latvia, unfortunately, finishing last in the Semi - Final.

Televoting Potential: 3/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 26/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.003%

Best case scenario:

Qualification for the Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 10-35

F: J: 15-50 - PV: 5-20 - Tot: 20-70

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is there a qualification path for Latvia?

You can hear my thoughts about Latvia in the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Cyprus

 

Shh - Theo Evan

Producers have intrigued us giving Cyprus the pimp slot in Semi - Final 1, implying that there are some big plans around their staging.

Maybe this is the secret the song is talking about...

'Shh' is the product of a writer's camp with many 'usual suspects' involved in the production. This is reassuring regarding their qualifying chances with a team that has been there and done it before. The problem is that the public might get the feeling that this is Eurovision by numbers and they might be right.

Cyprus continues their school of entries that go under the radar during the pre-rehearsals only to come alive on stage during the week. Having Serjio Jaén on board is a good sign of their ambition to surprise us.

The main issue so far and the factor that will decide Cyprus' fate this year is Theo's vocal abilities and stage presence. The falsetto voice is not everyone's cup of tea and he might struggle to pull the whole song off. In that case the qualification will become a head to head battle versus Belgium and the best man will qualify.

For the moment I do consider Cyprus a certain qualifier and the pimp slot (13 Qs the current PV streak) makes sure that they will make it.

In the Final, I do expect a mid-table result scoring consistently with both constituencies and if they get a favourable draw and they nail the staging, Cyprus could contend for a spot in the Top-10. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Cyprus qualifying and then secure a score close or just over the three digits to finish in the left hand-side of the scoreboard, 12th-13th.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 37.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.2%

Best case scenario:

8th-10th

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5 in Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 60-90

F: J: 20-50 - PV: 50-100- Tot: 70-150

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Should we consider Cyprus a Top-10 contender?

You can hear my thoughts about Cyprus in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Switzerland

 

Voyage - Zoë Më

Switzerland has finally made it but the recipe for success has not changed. They have focused on carving a path for victory through the Juries, having won the vote twice ('21, '24) and they are not looking back.

'Voyage' is their fifth consecutive entry that will be focusing in getting the most out of that constituency. It is a beautiful ballad that with an ethereal staging could be as high as Top-3/5. For the moment I do believe that the Top-10 there is secured.

The Public vote is a different story though. Switzerland got lucky with their draw and they will be performing at #19 which could boost their televote score a bit. The problem is that this type of entries usually score in the 0-25 points region and Switzerland will be suffering from the 'Host syndrome' as well. 

 Zoë is an excellent vocalist and that could help Switzerland's cause. If they manage to secure that Top-5 spot with the Juries, then they could finish in the overall Top-10 even with 0 Public vote points which feels very harsh though. 

Either way, Switzerland got what they deserved last year and any result in Eurovision '25 will not matter. 

However, they should be in the Top-10 this year as well and they do have a decent chance succeeding

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Switzerland finishing in Top-5 with the Juries and get 15-20 Public vote points that secures them the 10th place

Televoting Potential: 4/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 8.5/10

Total: 35.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.2% - 0.5%

Best case scenario:

6th-8th

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 125-250 - PV: 20-50 - Tot: 145-300

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Switzerland a solid Jury vote Top-5?

You can hear my thoughts about Switzerland in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Germany

 

Baller - Abor & Tynna

An anti-climactic and super complicated national final that ended with the Germans opting for the most German entry of all.

'Baller' is the type of song that Germany should be sending to Eurovision more often, highlighting their clubbing/alternative music culture that could be their trademark and would be acknowledged both by jurors and the public.

This is an entry that could land anywhere and will rely on creating some hype during the Eurovision week to boost their chances. It will need  a different staging from the one they presented in the national final to avoid being blanked/downvoted by the Juries.

The make it or break it factor for Germany will be their public appeal. They do have an entry that deserves to be in the Public vote Top-10. Tynna has lots of charisma and the duo oozes authenticity which is highly appreciated and rewarded lately.

On the other hand, I would not be surprised if they fail to create some buzz and finish 22nd, but if I had to choose any of the two scenarios, I would be more confident for a Top-10 result. 

With a good running order in the Final and a great staging they could be the breath of fresh air and could fill in the gap between the televote magnets and the jury oriented entries. 

Germany might be the pleasant surprise of this year!

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Germany getting a mid-table result with the Juries and a Top-10 result with the Public vote to make it in the overall Top-10, finishing 8th-9th.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 36.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.3%

Best case scenario:

Top-5

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 20-75 - PV: 75-125 - Tot: 95-200

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Will Juries crash the German hopes for a Top-10 result? Could the Public vote be enough to secure it?

You can hear my thoughts about Germany in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Azerbaijan

 

Run With U - Mamagama

Has the time to end the non-qualification streak come? Azerbaijan is finally sending a competitive entry that might have some appeal to the Public vote.

'Run With U' is an up-tempo entry with some traditional elements that if performed/staged adequately could secure a spot in the Final.

The structural problem that the Azeri NQ entries had was that they were missing a call for action/they were very in the middle of the road. We might have a similar situation this year as well, but the good news for Azerbaijan is that they have their chance to showcase their quality on stage on a head to head battle versus Belgium, performing before them, and San Marino that is performing after them. If they can steal some of the spark of the other two entries, the ticket is theirs.

They are still a borderline entry but now leaning towards the qualification. If they make it to the Final, I do not expect anything ground-breaking but they could secure a mid-table score with the Juries to avoid finishing in the Bottom-5. 

The good news for them is that after 2 non-competitive years they have shown some signs of life in Eurovision.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Azerbaijan qualifying to the Final finishing 9th-10th and then grab 30-40 Jury points from friends and a few Public vote points from some neighbours to finish 19th-21st.

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 34.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Qualification for the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-55

F: J: 25-50 - PV: 15-40 - Tot: 40-90

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Azerbaijan hopeless for qualification or have we jumped the gun too fast?

You can hear my thoughts about Azerbaijan in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Netherlands

 

C'est La Vie - Claude

Netherlands is back! And is aiming for the top!

After last year's drama, AVROTROS opted to go back to the recipe that has brought them the win back in '19 and a 2nd place in '14. 

Claude is a charismatic performer, I dare to say the most charismatic of the '25 class and will bring on stage his personal story sending a message of hope and faith.

'C'est La Vie' is a very smart entry, aiming to keep it simple but impactful. They have solved the French language barrier by using simple wording that is understood even by the non-French speakers, something that France did as well with Voila'. 

The aim of the entry is to tick the correct Jury boxes and get a solid start finishing Top-2/3 with them and then try to get some momentum going with the Public vote.

I do believe that the Jury part is a lock for them, hence my enthusiasm and support in Winner's market and I do feel confident that the song will click with the viewers as well.

Netherlands is what I consider a 'low-maintenance' contender, that does not need to win or landslide any of the two constituencies but just needs to be Top-2/4 with them to be in the game till the very end. 

This is the main reason that I do have Netherlands in my Tier 1 entries. I could see them score 250-275 points with the Juries and a slightly smaller score with the Public vote, something like 200-225. 

My data suggest that the entries which get points from the vast majority of countries in the Jury vote, and Netherlands does fit that description, also get voted in Public vote and this is the recipe for a great result. 

Switzerland and France last year finished 5th and 4th in Public vote, scoring 220-221 points but both were voted by all countries in the Televote! 

For all these reasons, I do consider Netherlands a secure Top-4 entry that has the potential to surprise us and win the Contest.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Netherlands finishing in Top-2 in the Jury vote near the 300 points threshold and in Top-5 with the Public vote and reach the magic 500 points number that could land them the victory.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 9.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 43.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

5% - 12.5%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

Top-6

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 80-120

F: J: 225-300 - PV: 150-225 - Tot: 425 - 525

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Netherlands a contender or a Public vote flop?

You can hear my thoughts about Netherlands in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Armenia

 

Survivor - Parg

One of the most anticlimactic national finals of the season where a very average entry won because of the total lack of any competition happened in Armenia.

'Survivor' feels like a Melfest reject from 10-15 years ago forgotten in G:son's old laptop that Armenia decided to buy on a clearance sale...

The song is lacking purpose, a call for action and melody and merit wise should not make the cut for the Final.

But...this is Armenia in the Semi - Final with the most friends/allies included and they start their campaign with 30-35 points in their pocket from just a handful of countries (Georgia, France, Greece, Israel) and need 15-20 more from the rest of the field to secure qualification.

Furthermore, they have the ideal running order slot at #5, the one that holds the best record of qualifications (PV only)  for the first half in producers' era (15/22) and in 15/16 countries Semi - Final line-ups (7/9). 

Coming after a sequence of weak entries as well will help their cause even more and for all these reasons, Armenia is a lock for the Final I reckon.

The Final is a different story and Armenia is ticking every box of an entry that will not stand a chance to do well with any of the two constituencies. Diaspora will be there to secure a result just out of the Bottom-5 and this is the realistic goal for them.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Armenia securing qualification and then getting lost/forgotten/used as a filler in the Final, finishing 18th thanks to their diaspora.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 20.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.002%

Best case scenario:

17th-20th

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 35-55

F: J: 20-35 - PV: 30-60 - Tot: 50-95

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Armenia qualify as a result of their diaspora's and friends' support?

You can hear my thoughts about Armenia in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple podcasts Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Australia

 

Milkshake Man - Go-Jo

Australia has taken a U-turn for their Eurovision '25 campaign trying to work something out for their Public vote shortcomings.

'Milkshake Man' had an impressive drop in odds when launched trading as low as high teens but then reality kicked in and drifted all the way to the '000s. 

The song is trying to balance between being a joke entry or a credible high energy fun song. It could go both ways and we have to wait for the staging to rate this one.

Australia does have a good connection with Juries and that might make their task a bit easier but I am not sure at what length the jurors will go with this one, having many similar entries of that genre. 

Being in the same Semi - Final with Malta and Finland might give Australia the boost they need if they stage their entry better. 

Qualifying to the Final is a certainty, belonging to the weakest part of both Semis. The Final is a different beast and there is a chance that they might get the 'No Rules' treatment if they miss to find the golden balance.

A mid-table result 13th-17th feels safe for the moment.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Cannot judge this one until I see it on stage so I will stick to 13th-17th .

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 37/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-0.2%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 70-100

F: J: 30-75 - PV: 50-125 - Tot: 80-200

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Australia a Top-10 contender or No Rules 2.0?

You can hear my thoughts about Australia in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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