When the allocation draw happened back in late January, Semi - Final 1 and especially its first half was considered a bloodbath and Semi - Final 2 was meant to be the 'weak' Semi on paper.
Fast forward three months later and this is one of the strongest Semi - Finals we have had for a while.
Two contenders (Switzerland, Netherlands), three if Italy is also included, and seven or eight Top-10 candidates with France and Italy included.
That sums it up. The other difference between the two Semi - Finals is that here we have a much stronger lineup and with the exception of Malta and maybe Czechia and San Marino, there are at least thirteen, I say fourteen, contenders for the ten spots.
I will use tiers to separate the entries based on their dynamics and I will start with tier 1 that has only one country.
1. Netherlands
Having the pimp slot and being the entry that could possibly win the Public Vote in Final says it all. There is strong competition but Netherlands should have a lead big enough to win in style.
I will be surprised if Netherlands somehow does not make it, and we might not know the results until the end of the Contest but this, will be a very bad omen for their winning chances.
The Dutch delegation and media are setting the bar too high when it comes to the staging and it remains to be seen if they will deliver.
2. Israel
The 'winner' of the Eurojury results, even though they finished 7th. It was a wake up call for those still under the impression that Israel will get buried by the Juries and will not stand a chance.
I will not overanalyze the Eurojury results, but the points Israel received were by just thirteen juries. The biggest unknown of this season is how big will Israel's Public vote be and if it could be enough for a Top-4/5 result.
I reckon that the diaspora will be there to support them and it could land them a very decent result.
There is a chance though that Israel flops completely and could finish mid-table but this is not where I currently have them.
3. Switzerland
The country that leads the odds just third in its Semi - Final? It has never happened before to have a Eurovision winner finishing outside the Top-2 in a Semi - Final so that could mean two things: Either Switzerland will write history or will not win Eurovision.
Performing at #4 is not very helpful for their chances to win the Semi, but that slot has two third places in Public vote only results since 2014.
If Switzerland finishes higher, it will be an impressive achievement to be honest. This is an entry that has lots of staging potential and remains to be seen how high they can go.
4. Greece
Another question mark, one more out of the box entry that I expect to do really well with the Public vote but for the moment I am cautious with its Jury reception.
The running order is not ideal on a first glance but it is basically the actual opener of the Semi - Final. Will not be surprised if they end up in Top-3 in the Semi.
There are some friends there as well to help their cause.
5. Armenia
The difference between Armenia and Greece is that the first one is catchier and more instant and that means that the crowd and the audience will engage instantly.
The running order is optimal getting the first half pimp slot and in the middle of two slow tempo entries.
Sailing to the Final!
6. Norway
Has Norway blossomed too early in the national finals season and most people forgot about them? Is it an overestimated entry?
I still think there is room for Norway to grow a la Denmark '18 and be on track for a Top-10 result.
Sailing to the Final.
7. Georgia
Georgia has really grown on me and has moved up from a borderline non qualifier to an almost certain qualifier on my list.
They do deserve to qualify for the first time since 2016 and EBU has been kind to them with their running order keeping enough distance from the very packed end of the Semi - Final.
The seven countries mentioned above are my certain qualifiers from this Semi - Final and now we are entering the crowded tier 3. There are six countries here, potentially seven that have a case for the qualification.
8. Estonia
Pure fun entry that thrives in a Public vote only environment. The staging felt a bit chaotic in their national final and this is the reason why Estonia is not higher in the pack of the televote magnets.
It is not yet a certain qualifier but is heading to that direction.
9. Belgium
Now we are entering the grey area. Belgium is the ideal candidate to become the shocker non qualifier. A have a very big lay on them before the pre-parties started and I do have them qualifying for the moment because I need to see the TV feed before my final judgement.
The studio version of the song is ok but the lives so far are lacking the energy and the charisma for Belgium to be a Top-10 candidate in the Final.
I am leaning towards a Sennek result back in 2018.
10. Latvia
Everything is against them, a very competitive Semi - Final, stuck in the middle between Armenia and San Marino.
Dons has the voice and the song is decent, however the staging needs to be perfect for them to stand out.
Quality alone should help their cause but the competition will be tough.
11. Albania
One more borderline year for Albania. In theory they do have the friends and allies to secure them enough points for the qualification but appearing in the death slot (#2) in a Semi - Final with a nineteen countries lineup and an English revamp that is not great might shatter their hopes.
If the diaspora is ok with the English revamp then Albania might be fine but I am not ready yet to move them to the qualifiers.
12. Czechia
That might be a surprise for you but Czechia has improved and the revamp is better than the original version.
Aiko appearing after France might be a setback for their chances but if they bring enough energy on stage then impossible is nothing.
It could definitely gain traction if Austria underperforms as it is expected.
13. Denmark
Saba is a great vocalist that goes to Eurovision with a very indifferent song that could be someone's seventh or eighth choice and this is a problem when it comes to the voting.
It is a radio friendly song that will struggle to distinguish itself from the competition.
It is not written off yet but the chances are not with them.
14. Austria
I know that many people will be surprised by seeing Austria that low I could not ignore all the red flags around this entry since the beginning of the season.
Add to that Austria's recent history of creating high hopes and expectations and then disappoint when it matters and we have the perfect mix for a Halo 2.0.
The song works in the studio version but the pre-parties and the other live versions suggest that Austria is heading for a car crush.
The running order does not help either with Greece and Switzerland setting the pace before them and Armenia coming after them, plus all the other big guns at the end of the second half.
Even Czechia could steal some of Austria's thunder. I already have a big lay placed on them and I do believe there is still value there.
15. San Marino
We are entering the twilight zone now but I do think that San Marino is not yet 100% written off. Appearing after Spain and having a secured set of 12 points from them and maybe some more from Italy, they might get lucky be near the qualification threshold if they can secure 25-30 points getting the low 1s-4s from some countries.
16. Malta
This is the only entry that I consider 100% hopeless. Opening the Semi - Final that has 19 entries with the automatic qualifiers included and being Malta that historically struggles with the Public vote is the recipe for disaster.
My guess is that Malta will finish last in Semi - Final for a second year in a row.
And that is a wrap. This will be a very competitive Semi - Final, something that we have missed last year and it will be very interesting to see who will be left behind after the Semi and who will get the boost and hype to lead the odds after next Thursday.
I do expect that this power ranking might look a bit different by next Wednesday when I will have the chance to see the Jury show.
This is also the Semi - Final that presents more betting opportunities either with shock qualifiers or shock non qualifiers.
I have mentioned in my betting resolution for 2024 the second Semi - Final paradox when it comes to my tips in the last few editions and I do hope this will be my redemption year.
Good luck with your predictions and bets! I will continue my previews in the next few days to finish the presentation of the whole lineup and there will be new episodes of our TalkAboutThings podcast.
Stay tuned!
