Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Belgium

 

First Thoughts:

One of the most anticipated entries of the year with Mustii being the first artist that was announced back in August to represent Belgium.

Belgium will try to extend its current qualifying streak to four, setting the record for the Semi - Final era.

'Before the Party's Over' is a very interesting composition with a very slow build up, trying to balance the different elements that happen simultaneously.

The build up lasts almost two minutes and then we have a very nice climax that lasts for a few seconds and then the song becomes repetitive.

Although I do like the song and I do find it interesting, there are so many red flags there that cannot go unnoticed.

The most important for me is that it feels very Eurovision by numbers. Two of the composers and lyricists have participated in the Contest multiple times both with mixed results. I am getting the impression that they are trying too hard some times to create a vibe in the song and they fail to do so.

I had to listen to the song many times before I was able to remember a part of it.

There is a fine line between an artistic entry and a pretentious pseudo-artistic one and this one is balancing right in the middle. 

I do think that Belgium released its song on the perfect timing, just when Ryk's fans were looking out for their new savior.

We need to see the full lineup and of course the staging and the song performed live, but this is far from a guaranteed Top-5 with Juries result and I am very pessimistic about its Televoting power. 

It takes very long to lift and might be off putting for many viewers. It might struggle in the Semi - Final as well and that could be enough to hurt its chances for a great result in the Final.

For me this is a mid-table entry that could maybe reach Top-10 with the perfect storm but does not feel like a 100% safe qualifier at the same time.

Belgium has two recent examples that we should have in mind, back to back. In 2018 with Sennek that was fourth favorite to win the Contest pre-rehearsals and did not qualify in the end with a 50/50 voting system as well.

Next year Eliot, whose entry was co-composed by one of Mustii's composers, had one of the dullest and most uninspiring stagings of all time, failing again to qualify. 

All things said, Belgium is looking for a mid-table result.

It reminds me of...

 Belgium '18 - '19 (NQ), Australia '22 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 35/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 1%

Best case scenario:

6th-8th

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 45-75

Final: Js: 50-150 - TV: 20 -75 - Total: 70-225

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Belgium struggling to qualify, finishing 8th-10th in the Semi- Final and then finishing mid-table, 14th-16th.

This is an entry that I am looking forward to see how they will stage it but not very confident for its chances yet.

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Lithuania

 

First Thoughts:

Lithuania's best result in Eurovision was back in 2006 when they finished 6th.

Silvester Belt's 'Luktelk' will try to beat that record.

This is a Eurovision ready entry already from its national final with a very slick and catchy vibe.

The fact that is in Lithuanian actually adds to its value. The song grabs you from the first second and does not let you take a breath until the end.

It is missing the great moment though and it gets a bit repetitive by the end that hurts its chances to be considered a contender, having a ceiling at Top-4/5 but I have a feeling that the Lithuanian delegation would have been more than happy with that.

The Semi - Final will not be a problem for them in a Televote only voting system, with UK, Ireland, Ukraine, Poland in the same semi.

'Luktelk' has a nice package for Juries as well to appreciate and the same could happen with the western ears.

Lithuania finished 11th and 14th in the last two years with entries that were far more average than this one so a Top-10 result is more than probable next May.

And then it remains to be seen if Lithuania has enough fuel to enter the Top-5.

It reminds me of...

 Belgium '15 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 9/10

Jury Potential: 8.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8.5/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 45/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1% - 3%

Best case scenario:

Top-4

Worst case scenario:

12th-14th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 120-150

Final: Js: 75-175 - TV: 100 -225 - Total: 175-400

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Lithuania finishing in Top-3 in the Semi - Final getting a decent allocation draw for the Final and finish 5th-6th.

It is one my favorite entries this year and would be very happy to see them do well. 

Will be surprised if they miss Top-10 somehow.

You can hear some thoughts about Lithuania in the third episode of our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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The one for the Baltics and the Northern Europe

 

By Saturday night we will know more than half of the songs that will be competing in Malmö next May.

Germany tonight, Moldova, Estonia, Denmark and Lithuania have their national finals in the busiest weekend of the season so far, with Sweden and Iceland also having their Semi- Finals at the same time.

Let's start with Germany where nine songs will compete for the win.

The odds suggest an one horse race with Ryk being the heavy favorite to represent Germany currently at 1.35-1.38. I do find these odds very very short and with no value whatsoever, especially because we are talking about Germany with 50% of the votes coming from the German public. 

The public has been unpredictable in the past and the nature of the majority of the entries being slow tempo might affect Ryk's favoritism. 

Betting wise there are three strategies that someone could use in this particular National Final:

1. No bet: If you think that Ryk is the clear favorite and one way or the other will win the final. 

2. Lay Ryk: If you have access to Betfair exchange this is the best way to go. With the current price at 1.38, laying means you get approximately 4 times your money if any other artist wins.

3. Invest 5 units divided as following: Bodine Monet x 2 (4.2), Max Mutzke (8), Marie Reim (40), Isaak (27) x 1, investing a small amount of money that could bring a large profit if an outsider wins.

I will personally use a combination of the latter two but will not invest a big amount of money either way.

The first Final on Saturday is Etapa Nationala in Moldova. I have nothing to say here as this is a country that I have not watched/followed at all this year. Natalia Barbu is the favorite at 1.25 and I do not have any comment or recommendation for this one.

Eesti Laul in Estonia is the one that will grab my attention early in the evening. 5miinust & Puuluup were trading at 2.50 6 weeks ago and were the second favorite to win Eesti Laul and their price is currently at 1.10-1.20.

Any thoughts for opposing the favorite are just wishful thinking in my opinion. The format to decide the winner is a 50/50 split between a jury and the public voting, leading to a super final between the three best acts with a 100% televote which is the reason why I think that 5miinust & Puuluup is a done deal.

For those that are eager to bet on something, some bookies offer a Top-3 result, Daniel Levi at 1.50 feels like a safe option. I have also placed a fun bet on Ewert and the Two Dragons at 20.

Dansk Melodi Grand Prix will be the third Final of the day and things there are a bit more open. It feels like a two horse race between Saba at 1.95, opening the Final, and Aura Dione at 3.50, closing the Final.

This is not a particularly strong final and these are the two entries that slightly stand out. The voting system is 50/50 juries and public vote, with half of the jurors coming from the last five Eurovision Winner countries. Then there will be a super final for the Top-3 with the same format to decide the winner. 

Between the two, my personal preference is Aura Dione at 3.50 and this is my bet on the Winner market.

Stoiximan in Greece and Cyprus offers a few interesting  side markets. Aura Dione and Saba to finish in Top-3 at 1.40 feels like money in the bank.

The other option that has some value in my opinion is Saba and RoseeLu to finish in Top-3 at 3.00.

For those thinking that Denmark will once again peak the boy band, Ublu to Finish in Top-3 at 3.40 is an option.

This is a very average national final and the differences between the second and the fifth song will not be huge. Televote awards only one vote per artist and that could minimize the margins as well. 

This is the reason why I have chosen to risk a bit.

Again my investment is not huge, trying to have a nice profit but not risking any of my profits during the national finals season.

The last final for the weekend is Eurovizija.LT in Lithuania. Another two horse race here with Silvester Belt currently leading the odds at 1.35-1.45 followed by Roop at 2.10-2.35.

'Luktelk' is by far the best Lithuanian entry of the last decade and should be the winner, competing against the weakest of the three songs that Roop have submitted for Eurovision. 

Silvester Belt even at 1.45 still has some value.

Good luck to your favorites this weekend and don't forget to tune in this Tuesday to the third episode of our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

soundcloud and spotify

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Italy

 

First Thoughts:

Another edition of San Remo Festival is over and it has been a tense one.

The battle of the sexes had the first woman winner since 2014 and Angelina Mango will represent Italy with 'La Noia'.

San Remo has a very particular and rather complicated scoring system and Angelina was trailing Geolier the whole week just to win rather comfortably the Top-5 super final.

Italy had  three or four entries that could get a Top-5 result in Eurovision and 'La Noia' is one of them.

An interesting mix of Latin/pop/electro sounds and a charismatic performer are the recipe for success.

Of course Angelina will need a staging concept for Eurovision and a proper choreography to bring out the party elements of the song.

I do have a feeling that Italy will do really well with the Juries and could be in Top-5 with them. My main concern is how this entry will perform with the Televoters and I have more than one reasons to be a bit skeptical.

First of all the televoting performance in San Remo. Of course there was the Geolier phenomenon with people from Napoli and the South voting like crazy for him, but Angelina failed to secure a convincing televote support even in the third night of the show where only half of the entries were performed and she was just 2% ahead of the second in a lineup that was completely empty from favorites and contenders.

 The second reason is that since Italy's return in 2011, the three worst results that Italy has had were all with women artists. (Emma 21st/2014, Francesca Michielin 16th/2016, Nina Zilli 9th/2012). 

There is a notion that San Remo is a place where women struggle to win but the same could be said for Italian women in Eurovision as well.

Add to these factors the televote magnets that will be coming from the Semi - Finals this year and you have a perfect storm against Italy's chances for another Top-5 result.

We need to know the whole field of course and for the moment Italy feels like the second best entry, but I feel that stronger entries will be in contention this year.

Angelina will need to create a momentum during the Contest like she did in San Remo to stand a chance.

For the moment I have Italy somewhere between 4th-8th 7th or 8th is closer to reality and the song's chances. 

I would not be surprised if they miss Top-10 and will be even more surprised if they finish in Top-3.

It reminds me of...

Nothing really comes in mind...

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 8.5/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8.5/10

Total: 40/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1% - 3%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

11th-13th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

Final: Js: 125-200 - TV: 75 -125 - Total: 200-325

What do I see in my crystal ball?

'La Noia' staged and performed beautifully, achieving a Top-5 Jury result and lower Top-10 Televote result securing the 7th place for Italy.

The Battle of Sexes

 

By early Sunday morning the number of Eurovision entries will increase to thirteen with Finland, Latvia and Italy choosing their entries.

I will start my analysis not from the first national final taking place tonight but from the last one.

San Remo it is. I have watched the whole show in all four nights and what a roller coaster it has been. Annalisa and Loredana Berte' were the ladies that opened the Festival bringing a moment from the season and the pre-listening of the songs. However from la Prima Serata it was obvious that we have two true contenders named Geolier and Angelina Mango. 

Geolier won la Seconda Serata in packed with contenders line up and Angelina boosted her chances playing by herself in Terza Serata. Annalisa was solidified as third and Irama and Mahmood are the ones that have survived the big names drop in the scoreboard (Il Volo, Diodato, Berte')

Angelina Mango became the favorite on Thursday night however last night showed that Geolier is unstoppable. Angelina presented a song that her late father was meant to perform back in San Remo 2002 but unfortunately passed away before he was able to perform it. Angelina's performance was the most touching of all yesterday and her vocal abilities were highlighted. I considered that performance to be a career highlight and even that was not enough for her to win the night.

Which brings us to Geolier the winner of last night that somehow is still #2 in odds. He won last night and the rumors about his televote numbers suggest that he wins it by a landslide. The main concern is how could the juries harm his chances for the win.

I do think that the Televote will be more than enough for him to win San Remo and I can't see how the jurors can really affect his chances. 

He represents Napoli and the South and he does get a televote boost from them but let's not forget that jurors as well come from these areas and I don't think that they would try to harm him in any way.

Angelina is still the favorite to win in odds but I do think that they only way for the win to happen is to get the whole female support and this seems a bit out of touch.

Annalisa faces the same problem and in my opinion has the weakest entry from the three to surpass both of them,

Mahmood feels like a certain Top-5 contestant but third is the absolute best he could do and that leaves Irama that steadily hovers around Top-4/5.

He has the only ballad/slow tempo entry from these five and that could give him an advantage and make the big surprise.

I do believe the only path possible for someone else to take the win from Geolier is if we have only one female in Top-5 between Annalisa and Angelina Mango but that does not seem very possible.

My Top-5 for tonight is 

1. Geolier

2. Angelina Mango

3. Annalisa

4. Mahmood

5. Irama

Geolier to win San Remo @2.75 (betfair) is my tip for tonight.

UMK2024 in Finland is the second most important final tonight with seven acts taking the stage in Tampere. 

I have not followed this year closely but Sara Siipola should be the winner tonight. Michael Gabriel and Nublu is the second act in odds and Cyan Kicks the third.

I am not involved in this market at all. I do think Sara Siipola will win but her odds have no value at all.

The third final is Supernova 2024 in Latvia is the weakest final of the night. The last time Latvia has qualified to the Eurovision final was back in 2016.

This year they do have an entry that could finish the course and send them to the Final and that is Dons with 'Hollow'.

His performance in the Supernova semi-final needs some polishing but it is the only entry that could send them in the Final. 

At 1.10 to win of course there is not value and I do struggle to find anything decent that could surprise us and take the ticket.

Tonight there is also the second Heat in Melodifestivalen in Sweden with Liamoo and Maria Sur being the certain qualifiers in my opinion. Both of them have no value at all whatsoever.

My focus will be San Remo tonight and I will be commenting in twitter.

I wish good luck to all for favorites tonight and may we have the strongest possible line up for Eurovision this year.

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Ukraine

 

First Thoughts:

Vidbir loves drama and 2024 was no exception. A broken voting app was the reason it took almost 20 hours longer to confirm that Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil will represent Ukraine to Eurovision with 'Teresa & Maria'.

It has been the favorite since the day we have heard the songs and won televote by a landslide.

This is the first entry of the year that is considered a contender and currently leads the market, dropping as low as 3.15, now hovering around 4.00.

There is not much to comment on the Vidbir performance because I am sure that Ukraine will have a different and better staging for the contest.

Based on what we have seen this Saturday this feels more like a Top-3/6 song than a real contender.

But as I mentioned before, if there is one country that knows what to do on Eurovision stage that is Ukraine and they do need this entry to remind Europe that they are still in a war and need their help.

'Teresa & Maria' does provide the ground for a big moment on stage that could be decisive for a Eurovision win.

Ukraine has the televote power to be in Top-3 or higher, provided they improve their staging and if they can be inside or very close to Juries' Top-5 then anything could happen.

We are still very early in the season and none of the powerhouses has a song yet, but for the moment this is the one to beat, but does not shout winner yet.

I would be surprised if they fail to finish lower than Top-6, especially when they did that last year with an underwhelming entry. 

Winning is a tough ask but I reckon they would be happy with a Top-3 result either way and this is probably where they will be in the end.

It reminds me of...

 Ukraine '16 (Q) - (Win)

Televoting Potential: 9.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 9.5/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 42/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

5% - 10%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

7th-8th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 140-170

Final: Js: 75-175 - TV: 175 -300 - Total: 250-475

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Ukraine will be the elephant in the room for a third year in a row. Last year they have chosen music over politics and they managed to finish sixth with an entry that before the war would have finished 12th-18th.

The diaspora and the allies will be there to secure enough Televote points to be in Top-3 and the big question mark are the Juries. 

The song has nothing that would force them to punish it, but they might be tempted to ignore them just to balance things out and make sure that we won't have a second Ukrainian win in a three year span.

3rd or 4th feels like the place they will land.

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Norway

 

First Thoughts:

It was two weeks ago when Gåte appeared in Heat 2 and it became obvious that 'Ulveham' was the one for Norway.

It faced tough competition from KEiiNO but thanks to the 60/40 voting system that boosts the Televoting, they made it to Malmö. It would have been an own goal for Norway had they sent anyone else this year.

This is an entry with many folk/pagan elements that blend beautifully with the rock/metal sound and Gunnhild's voice. She offers an iconic moment during the choruses that could translate to televote points and there are the epic elements that recreate the Game of Thrones atmosphere.

The staging could use some minor changes, keeping the dark atmosphere there but add some extra light on Gunnhild's face to catch the emotions and establish a better connection with the audience.

I suspect that this will be the final package and remains to be seen the how this will appeal in the Eurovision field.

'Ulveham' is a gamble for Norway in terms of testing the waters as a hybrid genre. They did the correct thing by trying a new recipe and I do believe that a mid-table result could be the worst case scenario and it is a strong contender for a Top-10 result. 

Winning KEiiNO, having an ideal running order though, at Televoting was a good sign but there is some skepticism how well it could perform with Juries. 

My gut says it can do better than their recent entries that were hitting a wall at the 50 points threshold. The Televoting potential is there and remains to be seen how high they can go.

This is definitely not a contender for the win, but Top-10 is possible and we can take it for there. Qualification to the Final won't be a problem.

It reminds me of...

 Ukraine '21 (Q), Finland '21 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 43/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1-4%

Best case scenario:

Top-4/5

Worst case scenario:

15th-20th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 120-140

Final: Js: 75-150 - TV: 75-200 - Total: 150-350

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Norway qualifying easily and then reach Top-10, finishing 7th-9th. Personally I wanna see it higher and I do think that Top-5 can be achieved but we need to know the whole field first.

Super Saturday 2024 - Game On

 

We are finally entering the final and most important stage of the National Final's season. 

Four finals and three semi-finals will all take place this Saturday and eurofans will have a hard time choosing which show to watch.

I will take a closer look to the four finals and the Melfest Heat-1 and leave the Baltic semi-finals for a future post.

So let's start with Vidbir which is the first show tomorrow night. This is a one horse race in my opinion. The song that stood out from the first day is 'Teresa & Maria' that feels like the certain winner and the market agrees with its current price being 1.10.

This is the only entry from everything that we have heard so far that has a Top-5 potential and could finish even higher depending on the field. 

Ukraine has a clear advantage with the Televoting because of its diaspora and the on-going war and 'Teresa & Maria' does not give any reason for the Juries to punish it. This is the ideal entry for them to remind Europe that the war is not over.

'Palala' and 'Tsunamia' are the outsiders that will complete the podium. I am not very confident that we could have an upset win in Vidbir, but if it happens, it will be any of these two.

Moving to Norway and Melodi Grand Prix 2024. After three not that exciting, in terms of suspense, Heats it comes down to Gate vs KEiiNO vs Super Rob/Erika Norwich.

Gate became the favorite just after the end of Heat 2 and they remained there since today. KEiiNO were close but drifted a bit when the running order was revealed and we found out that they are opening the Final. 

Running order was the reason  that 'My AI' is third favorite being the entry that will close the Final at #9. Gate perform at #8.

There are three more entries that could possibly sneak in Top-3 or even be runner-ups. These are Gothminister at #3, Miia at #5 and Margaret Berger at #6.

My estimation is that 'Ulveham' is the one to win MGP 2024, signing the change of direction from NRK that had some very decent results recently based on the Televoting but struggled with the Juries. 

'Ulveham' is the only entry that could find a balance between the two constituencies and aim for a very good result.

'Damdiggida' misses the epic and pagan elements that lifted 'Spirit in the Sky' back in 2019, elements that 'Ulveham' does have. Opening the Final was another hint that NRK does prefer someone else and they have strong competition for the televotes.

'My AI' could get a part of those votes but it does not offer a strong enough package for the jurors as well.

'We Come Alive' has a better and funnier stage presence to sneak in Top-3. At prices over 25 it is worth a fun bet to win MGP (I have them @55 pre-Heats)

Gate to win @1.50 have no value being traded @2.75-3.50 two weeks ago.

MESC 2024 will give us the third song for the night. Not much to say or comment here. Matt Blxck with 'Banana' is the grand favorite to win @1.35 and whoever has not seen the video-clip is in for a treat.

I do have a feeling that Malta might choose a different direction than go bananas. There are a few options that do present some value and these are Ryan Hili with 'Karma' @5.00, Sarah Bonnici with 'Loop' @15.00 and Lisa Gauci with 'Breathe' @ 80. 

'Karma' is the best slow tempo entry in their Final and 'Loop' is the bop entry that is not a parody of a song. 

I am not sure that there is an entry that could save them and guarantee a qualification to the Final next May. But the three mentioned above might give them a fighting chance.

The tenth entry for Eurovision 2024 will come from Benidorm Fest late at night. What a week full of drama it was!

The winner of the Televote from Semi-Final 1 did not qualify because it finished last with Juries. Nebulossa won that Semi-Final just by  producing a great staging and party atmosphere with their song 'Zorra' and the two favorites, Angy Fernandez and Sofia Coll, finished second and third in a very non-competitive Semi-Final.

And then came Semi -Final 2 with the bar raised a bit. St Pedro with 'Dos Extranos' won easily and is getting ready to represent Spain next May.

Maria Pelae and Jorge Gonzalez were second and third and I do have a feeling that this will be the Top-3 in the Final with a small twist between Maria Pelae and Jorge Gonzalez.

It is safe to say that St Pedro will be the jury winner and Maria Pelae will finish second. Jorge Gonzalez struggled there finishing just sixth but I feel that the judges will not be that harsh with him today.

If he manages to somehow sneak in Top-3 he might have a chance if he wins both Televote and Demoscopic Jury. Jorge Gonzalez to win Benidorm @8.00 has still value being the most probable runner up (got him @40 pre-Xmas!)

Maria Pelae can be a solid second to fourth in all constituencies and secure a Top-3. I have backed her to finish Top-3 @2.66 at stoiximan (for those in Greece and Cyprus).

St Pedro current odds have no value. He was trading @1.85-2.50 just a few days ago. I do have the feeling that he will be the winner but the voting will be tense and the difference smaller than the odds suggest.

And now that the Finals are gone, a quick look at Melodifestivalen Heat-1. Having heard the one minute snippet of the six songs, it is safe to say that there is not a single entry that will stand out from this Heat.

All entries feel very generic which is the problem with Melfest the last few years. Smash Into Pieces feels like a certain qualifier performing at #6 but there is no value at their odds(1.03-1.08).

My suspicion is that the low bar could help one of the underdogs to secure the direct place at the Melfest Final and that entry is Lisa Ajax with 'Awful Liar'.

She performs at #5 which is a tell of how producers perceive the song and she could totally surpass Adam Woods that is the second favorite and opens the Heat.

Lisa Ajax to qualify @3.00 is a risk worth taking.

Good luck with your favorites tonight and let's hope that we will have a strong line up for Eurovision, hopefully with no bananas...

In the next few days the first episode of our new podcast 'Talk About Things' will be aired! Stay tunned...