Eurovision 2019 Final: Insert Coin...

D-Day is finally here! It has been a long interesting year. Not so intense like the previous years though. My intuition says that we will have a similar scoreboard to 2015.

A clear Winner, a bunch of 6-7 countries getting the high scores on Juries and/or Televoting and the rest spread all over the place. That said, we have a solid Top-8 and then 9th-20th places could have a margin of 60-80 points in total.


My Top-5 hasn't changed much since I posted it on twitter after the running order was revealed:

1. Netherlands: His superiority was never questioned from the market, leading all the way from the day that Russia's song was presented. By far the best voice and performance of the year. Even when he had the technical issues, the price never drifted that much to imply that he is in trouble. The YouTube views and the ratio of likes and dislikes is an extra proof. iTunes charts are there as well. Too short to place money on him now but Netherlands is ready for their first win after 45 years and they deserve it with all the effort they have put to the contest since 2013.

2. Switzerland: When it was presented was considered among the favorites. Then the parties started and suddenly it was forgotten. The same happened during rehearsals and then we saw it live on Thursday and we realised the amounts of energy that brings to the stage. Topping iTunes and great on YouTube views and likes/dislikes ratio. This is the proper Fuego 2.0 or Fuego 2019. If Top-3 with Juries, it might be able to be the dark horse. Was @14 this morning, currently @9.60 and ready to pass Australia as second favorite.

3. Italy: The cool song of the year with a story that is nicely depicted at the background. Mahmood is not everybody's cup of tea and Italy is always an x-factor but deserves to be up there. Not so many YouTube views but this is always the case with the Big-5. Doing ok with iTunes. If Italy made the Top-5 last year with a song that nobody was expecting to be Top-5, Mahmood can go higher.

4. Azerbaijan: The song that created a wow factor during its first rehearsal. Must have been a solid Top-3 during the Semi and has the potential to do great with Televoting. Its main problem is that is fishing with Switzerland at the same pond for votes and has Russia as the main competitor of the ex-soviet voting bloc.

5. Australia: A song that was the joke of the national finals season, managed to be the talk of the week. Amazing staging that will secure a great televoting score and Australia has a good history with juries as well, so I expect it to land in the Top-5. That is its ceiling though.

There are several countries that have a secure spot on the Top-10

6. Sweden: Juries will secure a particularly good score and will definitely have a more decent televoting than Ingrosso but still don't think that it will be enough to take it higher.

7. Russia: Sergey is a great performer and Russia has its way with so many allies available, but the song is almost non-existent. Gives me the impression that could only win the Eurovision circa 1993-1996. Kontopoulos' songs and Fokas' staging belong in an older era.

After that everything is open for me. I do thing that it will be marginal and any of these countries can make it. All of them have flaws but for bragging rights I will go with following

8. Serbia: Quality song that can attract some jury love, add the Balkan allies and you have a score that can secure the Top-10 finishing. If they managed to get 113 points last year, I can't see how they cannot get 180-200 this year.

9. Belarus: My Top-10 surprise. Every year there is a song that goes to Top-10 from nowhere. The first part of my prophecy (scroll down to #14) was successful, so I will go all the way 😂
YouTube views support my theory as well.

10. Greece: Biased alert. I have a soft spot for this song. Even though I'm from Greece, there are only a handful of songs that I have actually liked. This is my favorite ever Greek entry. I do know that the staging is a bit off and elitist (that's Greek as well) but Greece can be a Top-10 with the juries and can get some points from diaspora to secure that spot.

The other Top-10 contenders IMO are France, Iceland, Norway, Spain, Cyprus.

For the last place market Germany is the hot favorite, UK is in close distance (bet you any money that if it lands in Bottom-5 everyone will blame Brexit - Is there a bet for that? -) but my fun bets are Czechia and Denmark @67 and @51.

 Czechia had a similar result back in 2016, lacks allies and is early in the running order.
Denmark is the 4th Scandinavian country in the final and will struggle to find points from televoting or juries. If the margin is around 20 points this is a solid candidate.

And now it's time for my tips. My book was spread like that: 100 units on each Semi and 300 for the final.

My 1st Semi bets were the following

 Semi 1

Poland NQ: 20 units @ 2.00 

Serbia Top-3 at Semi: 20 units @ 4.40 (result will be known after the final)

Iceland NQ: 10 units @ 6.00

Estonia NQ: 25 units @ 2.25

Georgia Q: 25 units @ 3.15

Total after the Semi: 40 units and an open bet for Serbia's Top-3 in the semi

For Semi 2 I have invested the 100 units plus the 40 units from Semi-1 on the following bets

Semi 2 

Armenia NQ : 20 units @2.50

Austria Q: 20 units @ 3.60

Albania NQ: 80 units @ 1.61

Denmark Q: 20 units @ 1.97

Total after the Semi: 89.4 units

That means that my bank for the Final is 389.4 units and here we go! I know that some of you don't have the chance to use the Exchange market, so my prices come from normal betting sites but do use Exchange for better profits if you have the chance.

Final

Winner W/O Netherlands: Switzerland - 189.4 units @ 3.25

Top-4 Italy: 50 units @ 3.50

Top-4 Switzerland: 100 units @ 1.83

And the 50 units that go to my fun bets

Top-10 Belarus: 20 units @ 12.00

Top Nordic Country: Norway 10 units @ 6.50

To Finish Last: Denmark 10 units @ 51.00

To Finish Last: Czechia 10 units @ 67.00

New Total: 0 units

Open Bets: 409.4 units

Switzerland finishing 2nd will be enough to have a good profit.

Best luck to all your bets!

Eurovision Challenge

Unfortunately that 1 point difference between 10th and 11th in the 2nd Semi was probably the reason why I missed Albania's NQ. So back to square 1. My 10 units bet for the final will be

Switzerland Top-4: 10 units @ 1.83

Ps 1: Will update later the comments section with my book and the full 1-26 prediction for the bragging rights.

Ps 2: Would like to thank my partner for her patience these last two months that I was focused on this blog and spending hundreds of hours looking at data and the songs.

Ps 3: This year is kind of strange. It's the first time that David Gould is not around us and his blog and presence are missing. His legacy and posts will always be here though to guide us. I wish he were here to read my posts and give me his valuable feedback.

Ps 4: Thanks to all the guys from the Eurovision betting community for your help and support! Tim, Gavin, Matt, Rob your posts and insights always have an impact on my ways of thinking.

Ps 5: Thank to all you that have spent time to read my posts and hope you found them useful and entertaining.

Eurovision 2019: 2nd Semi Final - Tips/ Eurovision Challenge

We are almost there! After an underwhelming 1st Semi-final is time for the big guns to show up on stage. There are at least 6 songs that can end up in Top-10 and probably 3 in Top-5. You can find the Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings here.

I do believe that it will be a marginal Semi like the first one but with more secured spots. There is a group of 8 countries that one way or the other will qualify to the final and there is another group of 4 countries that will fight for the 2 remaining spots. Fortunately, we don't have San Marino in this Semi...

1. Netherlands (-)

Televoting: 1
Juries: 2

Duncan is on a mission. Technical difficulties have been surpassed and is getting ready for the big night on Saturday.

2. Sweden (+2)

Televoting: 4
Juries: 1

The other hot favorite is ready to shine. Sailing to the final and ready to push Netherlands to its limits.

3. Switzerland (+3)

Televoting: 2
Juries: 4

Lost the momentum before the rehearsals started and seems like it was ages ago when it was among the favorites. That doesn't mean that it lacks the quality for a good finishing.

4. Russia (-2)

Televoting: 6
Juries: 3

Eurovision crowd was expecting something more spectacular. Sergei is vocally perfect; Russia is qualifying but the song does not have winning vibes.

5. Azerbaijan (-)

Televoting: 3
Juries: 6

The first song that built momentum during rehearsals. Going to the final and almost secured Top-10, it's a matter of draw to see if it can do better than that.

6. Malta (-3)

Televoting: 7
Juries: 5

Will be among the pack with the countries that will fight for a Top-10 spot in the final. Had it higher but the clips that I saw lack the energy that is needed for an up-tempo song.

7. Norway (+1)

Televoting: 5
Juries: 9

Televote will be there (no pan intended) to help it sail to the final. Few weeks ago, was thinking that it could be a shock non qualifier but doubt it now.

8. North Macedonia (-1)

Televoting: 8
Juries: 7

The last of the songs that I strongly believe that they will qualify. It does deserve to qualify after all these years. Keeping it simple is the key.

9. Austria (+3)

Televoting: 12
Juries: 8

It's on my list, I want it to qualify but that 12th spot with televoting is the minimum for its qualification. I have liked everything that I have seen so far and will risk saying it's qualifying.

10. Denmark (-)

Televoting: 11
Juries: 10

I have 3 countries with the same total (21) and decided to give the 10th spot to Denmark because of the allies that are on the semi (Sweden, Norway, Latvia, Lithuania). It's a feel-good song and that is always a plus.

11. Romania (+3)

Televoting: 9
Juries: 12

Another tough call. Nice concept but don't know if it will be accessible for juries and televoting. Maybe will be lost in between. Not written off but has a mountain to climb.

12. Armenia (-3)

Televoting: 10
Juries: 11

The running order is the main problem for Armenia with all these favorites coming after it. Slightly aggressive as well. I may be proved wrong with that, but this is my call.

13. Lithuania (-)

Televoting: 13
Juries: 14

In a different year or in a weaker semi this could stand a chance. Tonight, must run away from the lions and the race is not fair.

14. Albania (-3)

Televoting: 14
Juries: 13

Another missed opportunity for Albania. Nice song that feels somehow lost on stage. Running order doesn't do any favors as well.

15. Moldova (+1)

Televoting: 15
Juries: 16

Tried every trick to improve their song but unfortunately there is not much of a song there. Best luck next year.

16. Latvia (+1)

Televoting: 18
Juries: 15

Too lethargic to qualify and way too repetitive. Has some allies that are not able to save it.

17. Ireland (-)

Televoting: 16
Juries: 18

One of the few songs that could not be saved not even from the pimp slot. And we are not in 2022 to create a pan with the title (remember 'Millenium of love'?)

18. Croatia (-)

Televoting: 17
Juries: 17

I am happy that after tomorrow I won't have to listen to that song again.


And now is the time for my tips. As I have already mentioned to my previous posts, my book is split in 100 units for each Semi and 300 units for the final. The units that are won on each semi can be used to the 2nd Semi and Final. I have a return of 40 units from Poland's NQ and an open bet for Serbia's Top-3 in the semi.

Last week I gave my first tip regarding Semi 2

Semi 2 

Armenia NQ : 20 units @2.50

Semi 1 New Total : 80 units

I have 120 (80 remaining + 40 from Semi 1) more units to bet and will invest them as following

Austria Q: 20 units @ 3.60

Albania NQ: 80 units @ 1.61

Denmark Q: 20 units @ 1.97

Open Bets: 140 units

New Total for Semi 2: 0 units

Just Albania would be enough to bring almost my entire investment back. The maximum return is 290.2 units.

Eurovision Challenge!!!

Having so many friends and people that watch the contest but do not bet regularly, I decided to create a Game/ Challenge to keep them interested. I call it the Eurovision Challenge and is very simple. I have estimated that if  I place an original bet of 10 pounds/euros/dollars on the 1st Semi at a price around the 1.50-1.70 area and keep betting the winnings on the next semi and then final and the semi etc, in 5 years time and if all the bets are successful, that amount can go up to 10.000 pounds/euros/dollars!!! Are you ready for it?

If the bet is lost, will start again with the same amount on the next contest. So here we go

Semi Final 1 - 2019: Poland NQ 10 x 1.90 = 19 

The first bet is won and we move to the 2nd round!!!

Semi Final 2 - 2019: Albania NQ 19 x 1.61 = 30.59

Good luck to everyone with your bets and let's have a great show!

The aftermath of Semi Final 1

Semi Final 1 is history now and we do have our 10 finalists.

Australia, Greece, Iceland, Serbia, Cyprus, Serbia, Belarus, Slovenia, Estonia, San Marino will be heard again this Saturday.

The non qualifying shocker was Hungary and looking at the number of views in youtube, it's clear that the public did not vote for it even though I'm sure that it was Top-10 with the juries.

The shock qualifier is of course San Marino, that must have been Top-5 with the televoting to make it to the final.

Jan Ola Sand tweeted this morning that it was a close race with the 10th place being only 2 points away from 11th  and also mentioned that Juries and Televoting disagreed twice for their Top-10. That is a sign that there is a trend that started last year with songs being less balanced and opting to attract either the voters or the juries.

Personally I got 7/10 but was aware that Belarus and Estonia were marginal and could make it to the final. I had Belgium and Georgia to my Top-10 and I do think that Georgia missed it by far and Belgium might have ended 12th or 13th. Looking at the views I reckon that Estonia was saved by the Juries and Portugal was killed by them.

Regarding the Top-3 and the winner of the Semi, Australia must be the winner and Serbia looks like a secured Top-3. The 3rd country is either Greece or Iceland with Czechia having a slight chance as well. These 5 countries will have a gap on the scoreboard with the rest of the field.

Betting wise I have a return of 40 units from Poland's NQ and an open bet with Serbia being Top-3 in the Semi that can give me back 88 units and secure a profit for the 1st Semi.

And for those that played Eurovision Challenge we have 19 units to invest to the next Semi!. 14 bets to go and reach the 10.000 units!

Tonight I will post again for tomorrow's Semi Final 2 but let's have a look at the current Winner's market.

Netherlands is shortening since Sunday after the rumors that the extra technical rehearsal was good. Currently @ 2.70 .

France and Australia were two overreactions of the market that slowly regressed and went back to 22 and 12. At one point they were trading @ 7.00.

Sweden is still the 2nd favourite stable @ 7.00. Russia is also trading @ 12 and is followed by Azerbaijan, Iceland and Italy. Switzerland and Malta close the current Top-10.

Nothing is over yet and there is that group of countries that can end up everywhere and of course do not forget those countries that go under the radar to land on Top-5 and Top-10. We have always one in each Top.

It is important to mention that we do have a favorite packed second half with Italy, Spain, France from Big-5 plus Iceland, Australia are all there. Only 3 more spots available there.

Will post later tonight with my thoughts about tomorrow and my tips for Semi 2.

For those in twitter you can find my comments and thoughts there as well

https://twitter.com/eurovisionbets

Eurovision 2019: 1st Semi Final - Tips / Eurovision Challenge

Finally it's time!!! The day that we have been waiting for is finally here! The 1st Semi is by far the weakest of the year but that does not mean that is an easy one to predict. Things changed during the rehearsals, and we do have new dynamics but there are a few points that I would like to mention before moving to the breakdown of the qualifiers and non-qualifiers.

The true and most valuable flow of information and data will start running the time we see the songs live on stage. Currently, there is only a handful of people that has seen and can evaluate the dynamics of each song. The market has 7 songs as certain qualifiers (1.03-1.27), 2 almost certain qualifiers (1.45-1.48) and a marginal qualifier (Estonia 1.82). A useful reminder is that the market has failed to find all 10 qualifiers in the last 10 semis. The usual number is 9 and some 8s but last year was the only time with 3 misses on the 1st Semi and the 2nd Semi had 2 as well. This was the result of the discrepancies between Televoting, and Juries and it will be interesting to see if we do have the same trend.

For those of you that need some numbers to help you with your bets this is a list of previous posts that might be handy when placing your bets.

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/04/eurovision-2019-know-your-numbers.html

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/04/eurovisionbetsandpieces-one-eurovision.html

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/04/eurovisionbetsandpieces-one-eurovision_23.html

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/05/eurovision-2019-semi-final-1-pre.html

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/05/eurovision-2019-first-blood.html

And now let's see where we stand for Semi final 1 in a Power Ranking form

1. Greece (-)

Televoting: 1 
Juries: 1

Sailing to the final. The question is if it will attract enough momentum to go after a Top-5 spot on the final.

2. Serbia (+2)

Televoting: 3 
Juries: 2

One of the songs that stepped up and deserves to qualify to the final. There things will be more difficult.

3. Australia (+7)

Televoting: 2 
Juries: 3

One of the songs that grew from rehearsal to rehearsal and is currently 5th favorite to win the whole thing. Let's not overreact. Running order will be decisive for a Top-5 finish.

4. Cyprus (-2)

Televoting: 4 
Juries: 6

It deserves to be lower and would be willing to bet for a shock non-qualification if in Semi 2, but Cyprus has enough allies to help.

5. Hungary (+4)

Televoting: 7 
Juries: 4

The good thing about having a balanced song and some experience in staging your song. Hungary is in!

6. Czechia (-1)

Televoting: 6
Juries: 5

The advantage of having a catchy song that comes after 2-3 bland ones. Might be slightly lower but will definitely qualify.

7. Iceland (-4)

Televoting: 5 
Juries: 7

Even my numbers say that it will sail to the final, but if i had to choose a shocker non qualifier, this is it. This is an interesting case study of what's the limit on a song with ambition to win.

8. Slovenia (-1)

Televoting: 8
Juries: 9

After the first 6-7 songs i do believe that no one is safe. Slovenia makes the cut on my list but it will be marginal. For those who are willing to risk it, NQ is @ 2.75.

9. Belgium (-1)

Televoting: 9 
Juries: 8

Neither Belgium is safe, but I believe that will get enough jury support to save it.

10. Georgia (+7)

Televoting: 11 
Juries: 10

I know that this a bold prediction, but the song has all the drama, sentiments, and narrative that better songs have failed to create. Has some friends as well that can help it a bit.

11. Portugal (-5)

Televoting: 10
Juries: 13

From favorite to win the contest, fighting to qualify! These have been 3 long months for Portugal! It's not written off but I'm afraid to touch it even @ 2.64. Will wait to see it live and then act.

12. Poland (-1)

Televoting: 12
Juries: 12

We are still in the area where there are hopes but coming from #4 and with all the madness coming after, this will be forgotten.

13. Estonia (-1)

Televoting: 14
Juries: 11

The unluckiest of all the songs this year, being sandwiched between Iceland and Portugal and Greece coming after that as well. 1.82 has value for those who believe in it.

14. Belarus (+1)

Televoting: 15 
Juries: 14

We are now entering the dark area where no light exists. Belarus has some very very very slim chances but needs to nail a Top-5/6 televoting to make it. Is that possible? I think it's difficult.

15. San Marino (-1)

Televoting: 13
Juries: 17

You can now live all your hopes outside. Serhat is not even pretending to be singing. Extremely poor song that cannot be saved even from pimp slot.

16. Montenegro (-)

Televoting: 17
Juries: 15

Avoiding the last place is the only target. Might secure some points from Serbia and Slovenia to avoid it.

17. Finland (-4)

Televoting: 16
Juries: 16

Nothing can save Finland from a poor score.

And now the Tips for the Semi. As I have already mentioned to my previous post, my book is split in 100 units for each Semi and 300 units for the final. The units that are won on each semi can be used to the 2nd Semi and Final. So far, my book for the 1st Semi is:

Semi 1

Poland NQ: 20 units @ 2.00 

Semi 1 New total : 80 units

I still have 80 units to spend and i will split them like this

Serbia Top-3 at Semi: 20 units @ 4.40 (result will be known after the final)

Iceland NQ: 10 units @ 6.00

Estonia NQ: 25 units @ 2.25

Georgia Q: 25 units @ 3.15

Semi 1 new Total: 0 units

As you can see, i just need any 2/5 bets to get my my money back and need 3 or more to have a decent profit. The best-case scenario gives me 323 units back.


Eurovision Challenge!!!

Having so many friends and people that watch the contest but do not bet regularly, I decided to create a Game/ Challenge to keep them interested. I call it the Eurovision Challenge and is very simple. I have estimated that if  I place an original bet of 10 pounds/euros/dollars on the 1st Semi at a price around the 1.50-1.70 area and keep betting the winnings on the next semi and then final and the semi etc, in 5 years time and if all the bets are successful, that amount can go up to 10.000 pounds/euros/dollars!!! Are you ready for it?

If the bet is lost, will start again with the same amount on the next contest. So here we go

Semi Final 1 - 2019: Poland NQ 10 x 1.90 if i win the bet, 19 pounds/euros/dollars will be invested on the 2nd Semi and so on. If not I will bet 10 units in Semi 2 and continue from there.

Good luck to everybody with your bets! I will be posting every day until next Sunday. Let me know about your thoughts and qualifiers!

Eurovision 2019: The First Blood

We are already four days deep in rehearsals and we have seen the 35 countries that will appear in the two Semi Finals and compared to the blood bath of last year and the madness after every rehearsal and show, things go on a slower pace.

Netherlands still leads the pack @3.35. It was slightly affected by Azerbaijan's rehearsal, but market shows respect to its quality.

That was not the case with Russia that had a rough day and did no convince with its staging trading up to 7.40 before settling in mid 6's. Russia have built the expectations for an amazing show and the markets did not like what they saw. There is still time, but my opinion is that Russia's song is not good enough to win and the staging failed to lift it or hide its weaknesses.

Sweden did not have a positive or negative impact on its odds and is still 4th trading @12.00 but there are a few things to add here.

If I had to create a Top-5 of the 'winners' of the 1st rehearsal that would be the following:

1. Azerbaijan. 70 became 10.00 - 12.00 just in a few minutes. The moment of the rehearsals so far and it happened to the last rehearsal of all. I have only seen a few seconds of the official video that EBU released and i cannot say that I am convinced. It's a guaranteed Top-10 and the pimp slot will boost it and will create an extra momentum after the semi but...

- It is definitely weaker than Fuego and most importantly
- We currently have 6 men leading the odds! This is highly improbable to happen in the night of the final. He is not the worst of the 6 but some of the votes will split between them.

2. Italy: Divide and conquer! Russia's and Netherland's rehearsal did the work for Mahmood. We have a few more days to see their staging and see if it can be the x-factor. I still find value in Italy's odds. It's a Top-5 in worst case scenario.

3. Malta. Interesting staging and Malta will be there, near the top. Does not have winning quality but I do think that it has secured the Top-10 and is looking up.

4. Australia. The step up from Semi 1. I am dubious about Australia, and I am waiting to see the next rehearsal. Definite qualifier and then running order will be the key.

5. Czechia. The first of the songs that had good reports. Has potential for a decent finish on the left side of the table.

And now the Top-5 of the 'losers'

1. Russia. Enough said. I believe that the Italian rehearsal will bring it further down.

2. Iceland. Punters started realising that Hattari will struggle with the juries. If staged differently to attract more televoters will lose more jury votes. The less leftfield the more televoters will vote something else or won't vote at all.

3. Switzerland. Another country that failed to take advantage of its song. Win is a long shot now and must fight for a Top-5 result. Still the best Swiss entry for the last 25 years.

4. Portugal. This is the fate of a remarkably interesting song that went to Israel with attitude and presented itself as being superior to the others. So many distractions on stage that is heading for a car crash.

5. Armenia. A song that could be fighting for a Top-10 spot and now will fight for its survival in Semi 2. Running order is a huge burden and will be difficult to get away with it.


Now let's focus a little bit on the betting side of the contest and my personal book so far. My opinion is that this year we have only two true contenders. You guessed right! I do believe that these contenders are Netherlands and Italy, and this is where i have invested most of my funds.

I have 750 units @ 3.78 at Netherlands and 175 units @ 11.77 in Italy. I have also covered Azerbaijan with 70 units @27.60 and can say goodbye to the 89 units i had in Greece @ 27.75. I have another 80 units scarce in different countries for trading reasons.

My personal goal is to have a return of approximately 4000-5000 units on that market and waiting for the next rehearsals and the live shows to move accordingly.

In the Top-10 Market I have invested 100 units to Greece @ 2.47 that could bring back the lost units from the winner market.

Malta is another safe bet that have with 60 units @ 2.68

Azerbaijan has on it 10 units @ 2.86 unfortunately haven't invested more on it.

My dark horses that won't make it but still have some chances are Slovenia with 50 units @ 3.67 and Belgium 40 units @ 4.06

Semi Final Q/NQ

1st Semi

Slovenia Q 20 units @ 1.50

Poland NQ 45 units @ 2.25

Estonia NQ 20 units @ 2.62

Fun bet on Chechia to win the semi with 5 units @ 33.69 and 15 units to finish Top-3 @ 4.55

2nd Semi

Denmark Q 55 units @ 1.57

Austria Q 17 units @ 4.65


I will create a bank with my suggestions for those of you that are interested in betting in Eurovision. I will split my bank in 500 units. 100 for each Semi and 300 for the final. The winnings from each Semi will be reinvested to the 2nd Semi and Final accordingly.

And now the moment that most of you were waiting for! My first tip for Eurovision 2019

I will invest my first 20 units for each Semi and my tips are...

Semi 1

Poland NQ: 20 units @ 2.00 

Semi 1 New total : 80 units

Semi 2 

Armenia NQ : 20 units @2.50

Semi 1 New Total : 80 units

Let me know your thoughts and your bets so far. A reminder that my twitter account is eurovisionbets.

Eurovision 2019: Semi Final 2 Pre - Rehearsal Power Rankings

Better late than never! Rehearsal season has started and with a small delay here are my power rankings for Semi final 2.

Ps: I haven't changed a bit on my comments, the only thing that has changed are the available odds that have more value for the countries that have already made their first rehearsal.



1. Netherlands

Televoting: 1 - Juries: 1 

Odds: Q 1.03 (exchange market), Q:1.01 -NQ: 15.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 2.24 (exchange) - 2.20 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
It is the big favorite to win the whole thing.
It is the big favorite to win the whole thing...
One more time, it is the favorite to win the whole thing!

Will not qualify because...
Martians invade planet earth and Eurovision is postponed...

Personal opinion: The one to beat and this is the only reason I'm waiting for the rehearsal! Netherlands must screw their staging big time to lose the win! And keep it a little bit low. Stay humble and take it step by step.

2. Russia

Televoting: 2 - Juries: 4 

Odds: Q 1.03 (exchange market), Q:1.02 -NQ: 12.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 4.50 (exchange) - 4.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
It's Russia and non-qualifications happen once every 25 years.
Televoting and allies will do their job.

Will not qualify because...
Russia non qualification was the perfect storm of failed politics and pr. This is not the case this year.

Personal opinion: It's the song that everybody or almost everybody respects a bit too much. Can go anywhere between 2-8. Quality wise i wouldn't place it in Top-10 but we are talking about Russia so 5-8 is where it should finish, always talking about the final.

3. Malta

Televoting: 6 - Juries: 3 

Odds: Q 1.23 (exchange market), Q:1.22 -NQ: 4.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 23.00 (exchange) - 21.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Malta is always doing an excellent job with the juries and this year can attract televoters too.
It has lots of potential on stage.

Will not qualify because...
Malta might overdo it on staging and create a mess.
We haven't heard yet the live version.

Personal opinion: One of my dark horses. I have already placed a bet on its potential Top-10 finish on the final.

4. Sweden

Televoting: 7 - Juries: 2 

Odds: Q 1.02 (exchange market), Q:1.01 -NQ: 15.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 9.60 (exchange) - 7.50 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Swedish productions are always slick and can guarantee qualifications.
There are at least 8 worst songs.

Will not qualify because...
Juries decide to mess with Sweden and don't give Sweden a single vote.

Personal opinion: Sweden is always destined to be Top-10 in the final and usually Top-5 as well.

5. Azerbaijan

Televoting: 3 - Juries: 7 

Odds: Q 1.16 (exchange market), Q:1.11 -NQ: 6.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 27.00 (exchange) - 34.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
It has the pimp slot of the 2nd semi and the last few years that was enough for the uplifting closing song to finish Top-3 in the Semi. (Belgium 2016, Israel 2017)
Does stand out.

Will not qualify because...
Chingiz will lose his voice and will not be able to sing a word. Even then will have some chances to qualify.

Personal opinion: Sailing to the final.

6. Switzerland

Televoting: 5 - Juries: 5 

Odds: Q 1.06 (exchange market), Q:1.03 -NQ: 11.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 7.60 (exchange) - 5.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
It will probably be the radio hit of the year.
It's time for Switzerland to qualify and have a Top-10 result after 2005!

Will not qualify because...
Dancers and Hani collapse on stage after hours of rehearsals

Personal opinion: It will be a televoting magnet but still doubt about its jury appeal. Solid Top-10 though.

7. North Macedonia

Televoting: 9 - Juries: 6 

Odds: Q 1.41 (exchange market), Q:1.40 -NQ: 2.75 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 25.00 (exchange) - 26.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
If not this year, then never!
The song is an inspirational anthem and Tamara has an excellent voice.
Jury friendly.

Will not qualify because...
Macedonia has the worst record on staging. They can destroy a masterpiece.

Personal opinion: They are set for their best performance in Eurovision ever. Top-15 @2.06 is a value bet.

8. Norway

Televoting: 4 - Juries: 11 

Odds: Q 1.44 (exchange market), Q:1.36 -NQ: 3.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 16.00 (exchange) - 26.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Denmark did the same last year.
Televoting magnet

Will not qualify because...
Remember Iceland 2016, Estonia 2017...
Juries might find it Kitch or outdated.

Personal opinion: Not touching it for the moment but the main candidate for a shocker non qualifier.

9. Armenia

Televoting: 8 - Juries: 8 

Odds: Q 1.62 (exchange market), Q:1.44 -NQ: 2.62 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 50.00 (exchange) - 34.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Armenia has a good record and some allies on this semi.
The song is contemporary.

Will not qualify because...
Running order is problem especially with all those favorites coming later.
Might look too aggressive.

Personal opinion: Armenia will be marginal either way.

10. Denmark

Televoting: 10 - Juries: 9 

Odds: Q 1.71 (exchange market), Q:1.57 -NQ: 2.25 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 11.50 (exchange) - 67.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Love is forever.
A feel-good song with a touch of nostalgia.

Will not qualify because...
Leonora is not smiling when singing and this is a problem.

Personal opinion: Somehow i believe it will qualify.

11. Albania

Televoting: 11 - Juries: 12

Odds: Q 2.30 (exchange market), Q:2.10 -NQ: 1.66 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 50.00 (exchange) - 67.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
It is a very sentimental song with some allies on the semi.

Will not qualify because...
Staging won't be perfect and might be looking very flat

Personal opinion: Not written off but must be perfect on stage to make it and Albania does not have a good staging record.

12. Austria

Televoting: 14 - Juries: 10 

Odds: Q 5.50 (exchange market), Q:3.50 -NQ: 1.28 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 140.00 (exchange) - 67.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Even though it goes under the radar, there is some quality hidden in the song.

Will not qualify because...
Juries and televoters will find something better to vote for.
Seems like it's too long

Personal opinion: Definitely a fun bet for qualification just to be ok with my conscience and gut in case it qualifies.

13. Lithuania

Televoting: 12 - Juries: 15

Odds: Q 3.25 (exchange market), Q:2.75 -NQ: 1.40 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 190.00 (exchange) - 251.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
If he can run with lions, why not qualify as well?
Ally friendly semi-final.

Will not qualify because...
Back in the Roman empire times, lions were eating the Christian martyrs in the arena.
Lacks something that will lift the song.

Personal opinion: Not 100% written off but almost there.

14. Romania

Televoting: 13 - Juries: 14 

Odds: Q 2.52 (exchange market), Q:2.37 -NQ: 1.53 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 140.00 (exchange) - 201 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Romania has a particularly good record on staging and making the most of its songs
Enough allies on the semi.

Will not qualify because...
The song struggled on its own national final.
Not a typical Balkan song.

Personal opinion: Romania should always be respected and can find the points to qualify but it is an uphill for them.

15. Latvia

Televoting: 16 - Juries: 13 

Odds: Q 7.40 (exchange market), Q:6.00 -NQ: 1.11 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 190.00 (exchange) - 251.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
We might not understand it consciously, but the song is hypnotizing the audience and sends subconscious messages to vote for it.

Will not qualify because...
It seems like it's on a loop forever.
Not even juries will be able to save it!

Personal opinion: Does not stand a chance.

16. Moldova

Televoting: 15 - Juries: 16 

Odds: Q 3.65 (exchange market), Q:2.75 -NQ: 1.40 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 190.00 (exchange) - 67.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Televoters will use the song as an anthem against Brexit. A last call for UK to remain in EU!

Will not qualify because...
This is so cliche that is almost a parody. And videoclip enforces that point.


Personal opinion: Moldova Won't Stay for the final this year.

17. Ireland

Televoting: 17 - Juries: 18 

Odds: Q 8.20 (exchange market), Q:6.50 -NQ: 1.10 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 75.00 (exchange) - 101.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
7 other songs will be worse on stage and with vocal difficulties.

Will not qualify because...
You can't qualify to the final with an amateurish song that doesn't even sound original

Personal opinion: Nothing to see here! Move on.

18. Croatia

 Televoting: 18 - Juries: 17 

Odds: Q 6.40 (exchange market), Q:5.00 -NQ: 1.14 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 140.00 (exchange) - 201.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
The angels up there will vote to show their solidarity to Roko.

Will not qualify because...
Nothing in its favour. Croatia has lost its mojo the last decade.

Personal opinion: Avoiding bottom -3 will be a success!

Will try to post tomorrow my resume of the first rehearsals and my first tips for this year. The posts will be coming on a more regular basis from now on. Let me know your thoughts and opinions.

For more comments and regular communication my twitter account is https://twitter.com/eurovisionbets

Stay tuned!