Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Serbia

 

First Thoughts:

It is easier for Serbia to get a mid-table result in Final than actually qualify to it.

This is the story of their life for the past decade with the exception of Konstrakta (3rd) back in '22.

In the other seven attempts, Serbia had only one non-qualification ('17 - 11th) and the six qualifications came with a 7th, an 8th, two 9th and two 10th places!

The most interesting fact for Serbia in the Semi - Finals era is that they have never finished lower than 11th!

This will be the moto this year as well for Serbia and they have their own song title giving them courage. 'Ramonda' is a small flower that grows even in the harshest environments with no water or sun at all. It's one of the rarest plants that could come back in life with a drop of water even when it is completely dehydrated.

It is also the symbol of the Serbian army that lost the majority of its forces back in World War I but revived again from its ashes, which might be the inspiration for this entry.

Enough with history and botanology. I just wanted to stress out that Serbia could actually make it again despite the fact that is performing in slot #2.

'Ramonda' is a beautiful slightly atypical Balkan ballad beautifully performed by Teya Dora. It does have a slow build up which is its main defect but the final minutes does deliver, being a bit repetitive though.

There is the danger for people to mentally check out before that part, however if the staging will be similar to Pze24, then we might be talking for one of the most effective backdrops with the ramonda flower rising in the end giving a moment similar to Jamaala's tree back in '16.

In order for Serbia to qualify from that first part, one of Ireland and Cyprus must fail to qualify. Ireland feels like the safest option but then stats come in play and there is no precedent in the producers' era where the first three songs performing in a Semi - Final all qualified to the Final. 

Serbia's path to qualification means that they have to outperform Cyprus. 

The good news is that Serbia has some friends in the Semi that Cyprus is missing and that might be a good place to start from.

If they make it to the Final, the Juries and the diaspora will be enough for a mid table result and with a good running order that could become a Top-10 result which is the absolute ceiling for this entry. 

Serbia is the definition of borderline again and I am leaning on qualification for the moment.

It reminds me of...

Bosnia '09, '12 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 8.5/10

Total: 38.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-0.5%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 45-75

Final: Js: 75-175 - TV: 35-125 - Total: 110-300

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Serbia qualifying as 10th, just by a point and then finishing 10th in the Final, thanks to the Juries and friends.

Its qualification odds are very short for the moment though.

You can hear my thoughts about Serbia in the Eurovision podcast @TalkAboutThings  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 05

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: United Kingdom

 

First Thoughts:

Two years after the brilliant 'Space Man' and one year apart from the flop of 'I Wrote a Song', UK will try to settle the score whether the '22 result was the perfect storm or BBC is really trying to win the Contest.

The announcement of Olly Alexander and Danny L Harle back in December has risen the expectations so much that UK was leading the market at one point trading in single digits.

The release of 'Dizzy' however did not manage to satisfy these high expectations and UK has drifted from the 10's all the way to 50s.

The song per se is a very nice produced 90's pop entry that has many things for the jurors to pick up and appreciate. The talking part near the end is the best part and reminds us of Pet Shop Boys, with whom Olly has co-operated recently.

The biggest problem though is that the song is missing the moment and a climax. I get the impression that the song is used to launch Olly's solo career, giving him a big enough platform to promote himself.

It is radio friendly for sure, but unless BBC creates something very unique for the stage, I would not ruled out a Top-5 result with Juries and a Bottom-5 result with the Televote.

A similar result to the one mentioned above could be enough for UK to finish in Top-10 and that feels the only realistic target for this year.

I do have it a bit lower for the moment hovering between 11th-14th.

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 34/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-1%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

16th-22nd

Pre-Contest estimated points:

Final: Js: 100-225 - TV: 15-50 - Total: 115-275

What do I see in my crystal ball?

UK needs a massive Jury score to be in the Top-10 and on paper it is possible. On the other hand the Televoting potential for this one feels limited. 

The good thing for UK is that the expectations are currently not very high and that could give Olly some space to breathe and surprise us in a positive way. 

I will go for 12th-14th.

You can hear my thoughts about Croatia in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 05

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Sweden

 

First Thoughts:

Sweden is here once again to claim its usual Top-5 place. Things are slightly more difficult this year with them opening the Grand Final after the draw that happened a few days ago.

There is a change this year with the televoting lines opening from the start of the first song that could potentially reduce the handicap but Sweden has still a mountain to climb.

The host nation will be represented by two Norwegians, the safest way to secure its first televoting set of twelve points in the 20's! That's right! Sweden has not received a televoting set of twelve since '19, even though they have won last year and finished fourth the year before!

'Unforgettable' won Melfest in style and does provide one of the most impressive stagings we have seen in recent years. 

The main issue is the song itself. It is so lightweight that feels like a parody. There are some parts there that remind me of Faithless and the end is very Daft Punk but does fail to connect with the audience.

Melfest and the Swedish audience are two different fruits compared with the average European audience and the question here is if Sweden will continue to squeeze as many Jury points possible based on its staging excellency.

The Contest is heading for a more original, authentic and vulnerable direction but Sweden insists sending more formulaic and plasticky entries. 

If Juries reward them with the usual Top-5 spot, they will need a lower Top-10 score with the Televote as well to end up in Top-5.

I do think that Sweden might have just enough to secure a Top-10 spot but 6th-8th feels like the ceiling for this one. 

I do expect a Benjamin Ingrosso score with a lower Jury score and a bit higher Televote score. 

It reminds me of...

Sweden '17, '18 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 10/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 36/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-1%

Best case scenario:

Top-5

Worst case scenario:

13th-15th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

Final: Js: 100-200 - TV: 30-100 - Total: 130-300

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Sweden has not been my cup of cake for most part of the last decade, I do recognize thought their ability to create breathtaking stagings that captivate the jurors.

If the staging prevails, finishing 6th-8th feels like the right place for this one. I still think there is a chance to miss Top-10 because of its running order and the handicap that comes with it.

You can hear my thoughts about Sweden in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 06

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Switzerland

 

First Thoughts:

Switzerland is the biggest mystery of this year's edition. Still remember the confusion that 'The Code' has created the day of its release.

It took the market a day or two to make up their minds about this one and this has been the trend this year.

First of all kudos to Switzerland for taking the risk and try something completely different. The route they have taken might have more bumps ahead but could prove the most rewarding one.

The structure of the song feels chaotic, however there is something distinctive and melodic there. The million dollar question is if Nemo could nail the live and how can they stage this one to keep the music video atmosphere as well.

This is by far the most interesting rehearsal that I will be looking forward to watch this year. 

'The Code' has the potential to satisfy both constituencies and this is the main reason why it is among the group of contenders. I do find its current odds short though with all the uncertainties that are currently present. 

Because of all these uncertainties its range could vary from winner to mid-table, the raw materials are there though, so Top-5 is within reach and it could pave its path for the win from there.

It reminds me of...

Belgium '15 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 9.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8.5/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 45.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

2%-10%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

10th-13th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 125-175

Final: Js: 100-250 - TV: 75-225 - Total: 175-475

What do I see in my crystal ball?

I want Switzerland to do well, they carry one of the best momentums lately with four straight appearances in the Final in the last four contests  with a Top-3 and a Top-4 rankings.

Having their last win back in '88 makes them an ideal candidate for the win. 

Everything will depend on Nemo's ability to carry this one live. If they can do it a podium result and even the win is within reach. 

My early prediction is 2nd-3rd.

You can hear my thoughts about Croatia in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 05

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Greece

 

First Thoughts:

It is always tough to write about Greece's entry being Greek myself but will try anyway. 

When ERT announced that Marina Satti will be the artist that will represent Greece I knew they were taking a risk, throwing a dice (=Zari).

Satti is the first 'big name' coming to Eurovision for Greece since Agathonas in 2013 and the reason I mention that is because I think that Zari was mostly made to bring the Greek diaspora back that was the main moving factor behind the Greek success back in the '00s.

Zari blends the Balkan tallava with the South American vibes, Bollywood rhymes and some trap to create a unique blend that could be perceived and it is very experimental but authentic as well. It is a party song that is made for the stage. 

It remains to be seen how the non Balkan ears will react to it and if they will like it enough to secure a Top-10 televote spot, maybe a bit higher.

The main concern is how and if Juries will accept this one. There is a very specific number of Juries that could award Zari ( Cyprus, Serbia, Moldova, Albania, Armenia, Georgia, Croatia, Azerbaijan, Israel) and I would not be surprised if Greece scores 0 points with all the other Juries.

Having that in mind, considering Greece among the contenders is more of  wishful thinking from the Greek media that found something to keep them busy for the next two months. Its odds are very short at the moment.

A Top-10 result is not out of the question if Greece could finish 7th or higher with the Televote and this  is a tough ask this packed year.

Personally, I am excited that Zari represents Greece  and I will be happy no matter what happens in May. 

It reminds me of...

Spain '08

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 39/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

.1%-1%

Best case scenario:

Top-6

Worst case scenario:

16th-20th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 75-100

Final: Js: 25-75 - TV: 75-200 - Total: 100-275

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Zari is made for the live show so we need to see if this one will blossom in May. Could go both ways and I choose to stay right in the middle with a 9th place.

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Netherlands

 

First Thoughts:

'Europapa' has been one of the most anticipated entries of the year and the result has not disappointed Netherlands' fans.

Currently is the fifth favorite in Winner's market, however the first reaction has not been that positive, drifting all the way to 200+ a few hours after its release. 

The number of streams convinced the market that we might have something here.

'Europapa' delivers exactly what we were expecting from Joost Klein as an artist. It should not be considered a joke entry, with a political pro-Europe message and a personal love letter to his late father. The 90's techno nostalgia bonds very well with the last 30 seconds of the piano that lands the viewers back on earth.

We are in for a great show and this is a given. Netherlands is heading for a Top-10 result that has not had since its win back in '19 but I am very skeptical about its contender status.

The main reason that Netherlands' odds have shortened is the number of streams that is impressive but I do suspect that it comes from a very specific region (Benelux with a bit of Germany, Austria and the Baltic). Not sure that this one will perform very well in Eastern and Southern Europe and this is a problem since its win path demands 325+  Televote points.

The other concern is the Jury appeal. I am not sure that the jurors will get behind this one and award its artistic merit or the hit potential. Even though it is not a joke entry, many might consider it one and that is a deal breaker.

For the reasons mentioned above I do think that Netherlands should have enough to finish 8th-10th but would not be surprised to see it finishing mid-table 12th-15th.

Top-5 feels like its ceiling if everything goes its way.

It reminds me of...

Moldova '22 (Q), Finland '23 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 7.5/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 39/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

.2%-1%

Best case scenario:

Top-5

Worst case scenario:

14th-17th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 90-120

Final: Js: 25-125 - TV: 75-175 - Total: 100-300

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Netherlands finishing 11th like they did back in '16 and '17. They do have a very difficult task to stage this one in the best possible way to maximize the televote points without compromising any Jury points.

I am still dubious of its pan-European appeal.

You can hear my thoughts about Netherlands in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 05

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Croatia

First Thoughts:

The dust is finally settling for Croatia a few weeks after Baby Lasagna settled in pole position for the Winner's market.

The first reaction in the Dora Semi - Final was a bit underwhelming and the market remained confused whether 'Rim Tim Tagi Dim' should be considered a favorite or not. 

Too much was happening on the stage at the same time, the camera shots were a bit all over the place and Baby Lasagna was probably a bit nervous appearing on a big stage for the first time. 

The Dora Final, two days after, cleared the air with Baby Lasagna being more confident and controlled and he never looked back. It took Croatia three days to reach #1 in odds.

Since then Croatia's odds are somewhere between 4.20-5.80 and it lost the lead momentarily during the Songvakeppnin Final before Bashar's flop.

'Rim Tim Tagi Dim' is a brilliant entry that oozes freshness and originality. There is a deeper meaning in the song but I am not sure how it could be communicated during the three minutes on stage without affecting the fun concept.

The staging could use a few changes to make it more coherent and relatable. Baby Lasagna teaming up with Kaarija's stage producer is a good sign but there is always the danger to be perceived as a Kaarija copycat which is not the case here.

I am confident that Croatia could be the Televoting winner or finish very close to the top and the million dollar question that will seal its fate is how well it can perform with the Juries.

They will need to be near the 175-200 pts threshold to keep the hopes for a win alive. I do think that 'Rim Tim Tagi Dim' could be bought easier from Juries than 'Cha Cha Cha' that was a tad more aggressive.

My thinking is that Juries become softer and softer with this genre with the likes of Konstrakta, Go_A, Kaarija paving the way for the entries to come. It is not impossible for Croatia to reach that threshold.

The fact that we have very few Jury bait entries help its cause as well, with some of the Televote magnets covering the gap and getting these 3s-6s that are necessary.

In conclusion, Croatia deserves to be considered one of the favorites and will most probably get the best result in their history as an independent nation, but this is not a done deal yet. 

It reminds me of...

 Genre wise Finland '23, energy wise Italy '21

Televoting Potential: 10/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 10/10

Momentum: 9/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 46.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

5%-15%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

5th-6th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 160-180

Final: Js: 125-225 - TV: 225-325 - Total: 350-550

What do I see in my crystal ball?

This is my favorite entry for the year and I do wish Croatia to be the winner for various reasons ( alternative entry, originality, a country that has not won yet, a region that needs some boost to come back to the Contest).

However analysis and sentiment are not a very productive combination and I still think that Croatia has a bumpy road again. 

The first Semi -Final will be ground zero for Croatia's chances. 

Not sure this is the winner yet, but I fail to see Croatia finishing outside Top-3.

You can hear some thoughts about Croatia in our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 04

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