Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: France

 

First Thoughts:

France has returned to the internal selection strategy in order to achieve a better result than last year and they have chosen wisely.

'Evidemment' is an entry that shouts Eurovision success and La Zarra an artist that clicked immediately with the Eurovision fans.

There was a lot of hype for France's song but in my opinion is another hit and miss French attempt for the win.

It does have all the ingredients there and it could potentially reach higher levels in the arena, but I still find it a bit stereotypical trying to build on the momentum that 'Voila' gave to France.

The intro is very promising, but the song gradually becomes repetitive and is missing 'The Moment'. 

I still think though that there is potential to be a solid Top-10 that could touch Top-3/4 if everything lands on their side.

It reminds me of...

France '21 in terms of stereotypicality, Malta '21

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 41/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.2% - 2%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

9th-14th

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Another decent result for France somewhere in Top-10, probably Top-5 with the Juries and that is all. If they get the staging perfect could aim for Top-5.

5th-9th

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Croatia

 

First Thoughts:

Croatia is going all in this year on a make-or-break situation, and I must admit that I feel for them.

With just 2 qualifications in the last 10 contests with the most recent one back in 2017 it was time for Croatia to try something different.

This is the first country so far that is trying to take advantage of the new rules that apply in Semi-Finals and will try to make it using a mid '00s recipe.

Mama SC is not a joke entry; it has a political background however I do expect most of the viewers to perceive it as a bad joke.

This entry will test the waters for similar songs in the future and will give some answers regarding this type of entries. Do they belong in the past or now that the jurors are not voting there is some room to go wild.

The thing is that a song just needs to find an audience and there is no negative voting in Eurovision. 

I do think that Croatia stands a chance to qualify but if they fail to make it, they will fail big finishing last.

If the later happens it is safe to assume that this will be the last Croatian entry in Eurovision for some time.

It reminds me of...

This is tricky...Germany '98, Austria '03,

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 1/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 22,5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.009%

Best case scenario:

Qualify to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Finish last in Semi - Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

60% not to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

If EBU finally decides to redeem themselves for all those bad draws that gave Croatia all these years and give them a favorable slot, with a momentum and the wow factor, Croatia can make it to the Final which is their goal. 

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Italy

 

First Thoughts:

San Remo's quality is high enough to produce a Top-10 caliber song even in a weak or average year and this is the case for San Remo 2023 and 'Due Vite'.

Marco Mengoni was the big name this year and never lost the hot favourite tag since the artist's names were revealed earlier this season.

This is going to be a Jury bait, finishing definitely in Top-5 in that constituency. The red flag will be its Televoting appeal. Mengoni has been in the Contest in '13 and has its own fans and Italian diaspora will be active in certain countries, but will that be enough?

I personally find 'Due Vite' a bit repetitive to be considered a favorite and Italy has the perennial problem of cutting their entries under the 3 minutes mark and sometimes the editing has not worked for them.

If they opt for cutting the intro, the climax will be lost, if they opt for the chorus, Mengoni will lose some of his momentum and the result might be bizarre.

There were also some rumours that he might go with a different song that makes things more complicated....

Overall Italy is a solid Top-10 country that might finish in Top-4/5 if they score well with both constituencies.

It reminds me of...

Italy '13, 

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 7.5/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 39/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 2%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

12th-15th

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Italy could do well with Juries, but I am not sure about its Televoting potential. If they win the Jury voting they might stand a chance, but this is an exceptionally long shot.

7th-10th seems about right.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Czechia

 

First Thoughts:

Eurovision Gods have decided to torture the punters for a second year in a row and apart from Ukraine itself, they have decided to place another pro-Ukraine song in the Contest.

My Sister's Crown would have been the winner if it were the Ukrainian entry for sure.

Representing Czechia makes things more complicated. 

The studio version is the only song so far that has some winner vibes, however there are many red flags there.

The live performance is not exactly stellar, and Czechia does not have a great record of staging their songs.

The elephant in the room is whether the televoters will vote Czechia as the unofficial Ukrainian entry or if they will opt to support Ukraine. 

Even with all these problems, Czechia is heading for its best or second-best result in the Contest. 

Talking about the win though is far-fetched. The absence of other strong entries keeps Czechia afloat for the moment, but the past has shown that you need your momentum in May and not early February...

It reminds me of...

Ukraine '22, Russia '03

Televoting Potential: 9/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 8.5/10

Total: 38/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 1.5%

Best case scenario:

Top-4

Worst case scenario:

16th-20th

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

80+% to Qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

This is a tricky one to predict. We need to keep watching the news in Ukraine. Its Televoting power heavily relies on that. The other unknown factor is its jury power. Will the Eastern European juries go for it? If the answer is yes, Top-4 is within reach.

My gut feeling says 6th-12th.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Spain

 

First Thoughts:

Spain has been a tough one to assess. I do like the song. I love how the electro bits cover the flamenco part and together they create a post-modern version of a folklore music style.

Juries and Televoters might love it or might hate it. I would not be surprised if Spain ends up in Top-3 or Bottom-3. 

It will probably be somewhere in the middle or a bit better. I have Spain as a Top-10 candidate for the moment, and I do believe that this one will get hyped when the Eurojury voting starts. Jurors have no reason to punish Spain and I do believe that they will finish high there.

My main concern is the televoters. Eaea is not an easy listening, and the majority of the viewers will hear it just once. Will it be enough to absorb all the different elements and layers that the song has or is it going to be a hit and miss?

Benidorm fest has elevated Spain's status in the contest, and it is a matter of time for Spaniards to celebrate a win.

It reminds me of...

Spain '90, Spain '96

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 9/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 44.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1% - 5%

Best case scenario:

Win

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Solid Top-10 candidate that could aim higher and with the perfect storm could even claim the victory.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Norway

 

First Thoughts:

Norway continues the saga of the pagan anthems that tend to perform well with the Televoters when coming from a Nordic nation.

Queen of Kings hopes to repeat the KEiiNO success and reach the Top-5.

Is it doable? Probably not but Norway is an almost certain Top-6/10 with Televoting that could be enough to secure a Top-10 finish. 

Juries tend to dislike this type of entries so I would not count in any votes there apart from the obvious Scandinavian friends.

The fact that the Semi Final is 100% Televoting gives an extra advantage to Norway that could finish in Top-3 and get a decent running order for the Final as well. 

It reminds me of...

France '22, Azerbaijan '21, Norway '19, Denmark '18 and '13

Televoting Potential: 10/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 41/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.5% - 3%

Best case scenario:

Top-4/5 winning the Televote

Worst case scenario:

12th-15th in Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

99% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Norway sailing to the Final, finishing Top-3. They get a decent draw and land a Top-6/8 result being in Top-3 with the Televoters.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Slovenia

 

First Thoughts:

Slovenia is determined to end its Non qualifying streak and they will do it in fashion.

Carpe Diem is the best entry Slovenia has sent for a while and is the ideal closer for the show in Semi Final 2.

The language barrier is almost nonexistent, and the energy is there. I would not be surprised if they end up in Top-3 in Semi Final 2. 

It also has some jury appeal that could boost it further in the Final. A left-hand finish is more than probable. I have a feeling that this will grow during the season. 

It reminds me of...

Czech Republic '19, Georgia '16, Latvia '00

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 38/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.5% - 2%

Best case scenario:

Top-5 in Final

Worst case scenario:

16th-20th in Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

95% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Slovenia getting the Pimp Slot and finishing in Top-3 in Semi Final and getting a decent slot in the Final where they Finish somewhere between low Top-10 and 12th.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Ireland

 

First Thoughts:

Ireland's National Final packed in a weekly show has become one of my guilty pleasures during the NF season, however this format is destined to produce poor/average entries whose only goal is to qualify to the Final.

Ireland will try to break its bad streak (2018 the last presence in Final) and they have a mountain to climb.

Wild Youth could be a thing if we were in Eurovision '92-'95. We Are One is a classic anthemic teenage school band entry and this is not a good sign. There is an audience for this kind of songs but I heavily doubt is one that watches Eurovision.

The Allocation draw has not helped either with Ireland being drawn in the wrong part of the Semi Final (first) in the powerhouse loaded Semi Final (first). UK is also voting in the other Semi Final and assuming that the first half will produce maximum three qualifiers and knowing that Norway already has a stronger entry, Ireland needs to surpass three entries between Serbia, Portugal, Malta, Latvia, and Croatia...

It reminds me of...

Slovenia '22, Ireland '21, Denmark '16

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 5/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 2/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 25.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.01%

Best case scenario:

Marginal qualification and a Bottom-3 result

Worst case scenario:

Fails to qualify and finishes last in Semi - Final.

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

Not to Qualify with a 55% - 75% certainty

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Ireland drawn to perform at slots #2 or #3 finishing in Bottom-3 of the Semi Final.