Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Ukraine

 

First Thoughts:

Vidbir loves drama and 2024 was no exception. A broken voting app was the reason it took almost 20 hours longer to confirm that Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil will represent Ukraine to Eurovision with 'Teresa & Maria'.

It has been the favorite since the day we have heard the songs and won televote by a landslide.

This is the first entry of the year that is considered a contender and currently leads the market, dropping as low as 3.15, now hovering around 4.00.

There is not much to comment on the Vidbir performance because I am sure that Ukraine will have a different and better staging for the contest.

Based on what we have seen this Saturday this feels more like a Top-3/6 song than a real contender.

But as I mentioned before, if there is one country that knows what to do on Eurovision stage that is Ukraine and they do need this entry to remind Europe that they are still in a war and need their help.

'Teresa & Maria' does provide the ground for a big moment on stage that could be decisive for a Eurovision win.

Ukraine has the televote power to be in Top-3 or higher, provided they improve their staging and if they can be inside or very close to Juries' Top-5 then anything could happen.

We are still very early in the season and none of the powerhouses has a song yet, but for the moment this is the one to beat, but does not shout winner yet.

I would be surprised if they fail to finish lower than Top-6, especially when they did that last year with an underwhelming entry. 

Winning is a tough ask but I reckon they would be happy with a Top-3 result either way and this is probably where they will be in the end.

It reminds me of...

 Ukraine '16 (Q) - (Win)

Televoting Potential: 9.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 9.5/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 42/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

5% - 10%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

7th-8th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 140-170

Final: Js: 75-175 - TV: 175 -300 - Total: 250-475

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Ukraine will be the elephant in the room for a third year in a row. Last year they have chosen music over politics and they managed to finish sixth with an entry that before the war would have finished 12th-18th.

The diaspora and the allies will be there to secure enough Televote points to be in Top-3 and the big question mark are the Juries. 

The song has nothing that would force them to punish it, but they might be tempted to ignore them just to balance things out and make sure that we won't have a second Ukrainian win in a three year span.

3rd or 4th feels like the place they will land.

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Norway

 

First Thoughts:

It was two weeks ago when Gåte appeared in Heat 2 and it became obvious that 'Ulveham' was the one for Norway.

It faced tough competition from KEiiNO but thanks to the 60/40 voting system that boosts the Televoting, they made it to Malmö. It would have been an own goal for Norway had they sent anyone else this year.

This is an entry with many folk/pagan elements that blend beautifully with the rock/metal sound and Gunnhild's voice. She offers an iconic moment during the choruses that could translate to televote points and there are the epic elements that recreate the Game of Thrones atmosphere.

The staging could use some minor changes, keeping the dark atmosphere there but add some extra light on Gunnhild's face to catch the emotions and establish a better connection with the audience.

I suspect that this will be the final package and remains to be seen the how this will appeal in the Eurovision field.

'Ulveham' is a gamble for Norway in terms of testing the waters as a hybrid genre. They did the correct thing by trying a new recipe and I do believe that a mid-table result could be the worst case scenario and it is a strong contender for a Top-10 result. 

Winning KEiiNO, having an ideal running order though, at Televoting was a good sign but there is some skepticism how well it could perform with Juries. 

My gut says it can do better than their recent entries that were hitting a wall at the 50 points threshold. The Televoting potential is there and remains to be seen how high they can go.

This is definitely not a contender for the win, but Top-10 is possible and we can take it for there. Qualification to the Final won't be a problem.

It reminds me of...

 Ukraine '21 (Q), Finland '21 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 43/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1-4%

Best case scenario:

Top-4/5

Worst case scenario:

15th-20th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 120-140

Final: Js: 75-150 - TV: 75-200 - Total: 150-350

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Norway qualifying easily and then reach Top-10, finishing 7th-9th. Personally I wanna see it higher and I do think that Top-5 can be achieved but we need to know the whole field first.

Super Saturday 2024 - Game On

 

We are finally entering the final and most important stage of the National Final's season. 

Four finals and three semi-finals will all take place this Saturday and eurofans will have a hard time choosing which show to watch.

I will take a closer look to the four finals and the Melfest Heat-1 and leave the Baltic semi-finals for a future post.

So let's start with Vidbir which is the first show tomorrow night. This is a one horse race in my opinion. The song that stood out from the first day is 'Teresa & Maria' that feels like the certain winner and the market agrees with its current price being 1.10.

This is the only entry from everything that we have heard so far that has a Top-5 potential and could finish even higher depending on the field. 

Ukraine has a clear advantage with the Televoting because of its diaspora and the on-going war and 'Teresa & Maria' does not give any reason for the Juries to punish it. This is the ideal entry for them to remind Europe that the war is not over.

'Palala' and 'Tsunamia' are the outsiders that will complete the podium. I am not very confident that we could have an upset win in Vidbir, but if it happens, it will be any of these two.

Moving to Norway and Melodi Grand Prix 2024. After three not that exciting, in terms of suspense, Heats it comes down to Gate vs KEiiNO vs Super Rob/Erika Norwich.

Gate became the favorite just after the end of Heat 2 and they remained there since today. KEiiNO were close but drifted a bit when the running order was revealed and we found out that they are opening the Final. 

Running order was the reason  that 'My AI' is third favorite being the entry that will close the Final at #9. Gate perform at #8.

There are three more entries that could possibly sneak in Top-3 or even be runner-ups. These are Gothminister at #3, Miia at #5 and Margaret Berger at #6.

My estimation is that 'Ulveham' is the one to win MGP 2024, signing the change of direction from NRK that had some very decent results recently based on the Televoting but struggled with the Juries. 

'Ulveham' is the only entry that could find a balance between the two constituencies and aim for a very good result.

'Damdiggida' misses the epic and pagan elements that lifted 'Spirit in the Sky' back in 2019, elements that 'Ulveham' does have. Opening the Final was another hint that NRK does prefer someone else and they have strong competition for the televotes.

'My AI' could get a part of those votes but it does not offer a strong enough package for the jurors as well.

'We Come Alive' has a better and funnier stage presence to sneak in Top-3. At prices over 25 it is worth a fun bet to win MGP (I have them @55 pre-Heats)

Gate to win @1.50 have no value being traded @2.75-3.50 two weeks ago.

MESC 2024 will give us the third song for the night. Not much to say or comment here. Matt Blxck with 'Banana' is the grand favorite to win @1.35 and whoever has not seen the video-clip is in for a treat.

I do have a feeling that Malta might choose a different direction than go bananas. There are a few options that do present some value and these are Ryan Hili with 'Karma' @5.00, Sarah Bonnici with 'Loop' @15.00 and Lisa Gauci with 'Breathe' @ 80. 

'Karma' is the best slow tempo entry in their Final and 'Loop' is the bop entry that is not a parody of a song. 

I am not sure that there is an entry that could save them and guarantee a qualification to the Final next May. But the three mentioned above might give them a fighting chance.

The tenth entry for Eurovision 2024 will come from Benidorm Fest late at night. What a week full of drama it was!

The winner of the Televote from Semi-Final 1 did not qualify because it finished last with Juries. Nebulossa won that Semi-Final just by  producing a great staging and party atmosphere with their song 'Zorra' and the two favorites, Angy Fernandez and Sofia Coll, finished second and third in a very non-competitive Semi-Final.

And then came Semi -Final 2 with the bar raised a bit. St Pedro with 'Dos Extranos' won easily and is getting ready to represent Spain next May.

Maria Pelae and Jorge Gonzalez were second and third and I do have a feeling that this will be the Top-3 in the Final with a small twist between Maria Pelae and Jorge Gonzalez.

It is safe to say that St Pedro will be the jury winner and Maria Pelae will finish second. Jorge Gonzalez struggled there finishing just sixth but I feel that the judges will not be that harsh with him today.

If he manages to somehow sneak in Top-3 he might have a chance if he wins both Televote and Demoscopic Jury. Jorge Gonzalez to win Benidorm @8.00 has still value being the most probable runner up (got him @40 pre-Xmas!)

Maria Pelae can be a solid second to fourth in all constituencies and secure a Top-3. I have backed her to finish Top-3 @2.66 at stoiximan (for those in Greece and Cyprus).

St Pedro current odds have no value. He was trading @1.85-2.50 just a few days ago. I do have the feeling that he will be the winner but the voting will be tense and the difference smaller than the odds suggest.

And now that the Finals are gone, a quick look at Melodifestivalen Heat-1. Having heard the one minute snippet of the six songs, it is safe to say that there is not a single entry that will stand out from this Heat.

All entries feel very generic which is the problem with Melfest the last few years. Smash Into Pieces feels like a certain qualifier performing at #6 but there is no value at their odds(1.03-1.08).

My suspicion is that the low bar could help one of the underdogs to secure the direct place at the Melfest Final and that entry is Lisa Ajax with 'Awful Liar'.

She performs at #5 which is a tell of how producers perceive the song and she could totally surpass Adam Woods that is the second favorite and opens the Heat.

Lisa Ajax to qualify @3.00 is a risk worth taking.

Good luck with your favorites tonight and let's hope that we will have a strong line up for Eurovision, hopefully with no bananas...

In the next few days the first episode of our new podcast 'Talk About Things' will be aired! Stay tunned...

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Ireland

 

First Thoughts:

Ireland's format for their National Final with six entries competing inside a late night show with a small stage is a recipe for disaster and it reflects the nation's recent results.

I am not sure what happened this year. Was it a reverse psychology effort or were Irish people fed up sending the same type of entries and decided to send something different?

With their last qualification dating back to 2018, Ireland decided to send 'Doomsday Blue' a quirky entry with gothic elements and a theatrical staging.

Bambie Thug is an  interesting persona and I am very curious to see what could Ireland do with this one in a big stage.

Staging and vocals need a lot of work to make the entry competitive and odds are not on their side but I do remain open-minded on its chances to qualify.

It will stand out from the other entries but will need ideally a second half draw in a friendly Semi - Final. 

Ireland will at least have some media coverage that did not have in the recent past and there is definitely a niche audience for this one to help it reach the qualification threshold.

This is a very interesting case study for Eurovision as this is a hybrid genre entry tested for the first time.

For the moment I have Ireland on the 50/50 list to qualify leaning on qualification. We need to see them on a big stage with proper entries to see if 'Doomsday Blue' does stand out. Most probably it does.

It reminds me of...

Romania '19 (NQ)

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 2/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 22/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Borderline qualifier, Avoid Bottom-3 in Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 20-60

Final: Js: 0-5 - TV: 10-25 - Total: 10-30

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Ireland finally qualifying to the Final and then ditched at #2 or #3 and finish in Bottom-3 but who cares? They finally made it to the Final. 

After all this is the reason EBU changed the voting rules for the Semi - Finals.

Update: You can hear some thoughts about Ireland in our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Slovenia

First Thoughts:

Slovenia has one of the weakest records in the history of Eurovision. 

In 28 participations the nation has finished 7th twice and 10th once and these are their only Top-10 rankings in their history...

The last time they finished in Top-10 was in 2001...

Having these numbers in mind gives you a better perspective of Slovenia's capabilities. 

Veronika has a well produced video clip which is a good sign, meaning that the broadcaster is taking Eurovision seriously, especially after last year's decent result. 

The problem is the song itself. It is not a coincidence that there are so many references to Iru's song for Georgia from last year. The first 35 seconds are promising and from there the song starts spiraling downward.

It lacks emotions, energy and any call for action. If we still had the 50/50 voting system in the Semi - Final, Veronika would have been a borderline qualifier. Now I do consider it a borderline non - qualifier and Slovenia will need an amazing staging and some friendly faces in the same Semi - Final to have some luck to qualify, ideally as many Slavic nations as possible.

If they do qualify in the Final somehow, I do expect a similar result to last year 18th-24th having at least a dozen guaranteed points from their neighbors and some jury ones, just enough to avoid the last place. 

The allocation draw and the running order will be crucial for their qualification.

It reminds me of...

Croatia '10 (NQ), Georgia '23 (NQ)

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 31/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Borderline qualifier, 18th-21st in Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-50

Final: Js: 15-40 - TV: 5-20 - Total: 20-60

What do I see in my crystal ball?

This is a tough one. I will  have a better idea after the allocation draw. I will go with my instinct and say it will finish 11th in Semi - Final. I still have an open mind about this one.

If both Serbia and Croatia along with at least two of Poland, Czechia, Ukraine and Austria are in the same Semi, things might look better for them.

Update: You can hear some thoughts about Slovenia in our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Czechia

 

First Thoughts:

And we do have a second entry for the season! Aiko smashed the international votes and despite finishing 5th among the Chech audience will travel to Malmö. Aiko had more votes in total but finishing only 5th in Czechia is a bad omen for Czechia's interest and future to the Contest.

I do have a feeling that the Czechs will not be present to the Grand Final. 

There are too many things that are currently wrong and I am not sure that a vocal improvement, a revamp or a good staging could be enough to save them and send them to the Final.

'Pedestal' is trying to be an avant-garde, provocative entry without being one. The NF staging was too aggressive for the average viewer and screaming does not help either.

Israel '14 does come in mind when a bad running order and a very aggressive staging caused an unexpected  non qualification with a much superior entry.

  Czechia is traditionally struggling with the Televoting and I do expect more left-field/televote magnets that could make things more difficult for them. 

The vocal performance was far from perfect but this could improve in the following months.

The only path that could lead to a qualification is performing as late as possible in the Semi - Final, ideally in the Pimp slot but I doubt that producers and EBU will do Czechia any favors with a number of countries having a worse/bad qualifying record.

If they somehow make it to the Final, they will fight with the worse of the Big-5 entry for the last place.

It reminds me of...

 Israel '14 (NQ), Slovenia '18 (Q), Armenia '19 (NQ)

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 3/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 28/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Borderline qualifier

Worst case scenario:

Last place in Semi-Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 5-35 

Final: Js: 0-10 - TV: 0-25 - Total: 0-35

What do I see in my crystal ball?

If in first half Czechia will perform in #2 or #3 or it will be sandwiched between two favorites and will finish bottom-3 in Semi - Final. 

Czechia has done a great job lately when it comes to staging but they basically need to change the whole concept and attitude of the song to stand a chance and I am not very confident they can make it.

Update: You can hear some thoughts about Czechia in our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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