Know your numbers: National Finals Edition

 

Things are heating up around Europe. The calendar is full of National Finals, National Semi Finals and songs/artists revelations.

We know already 9/41 songs and that number will increase to 13/14 by this Saturday.

San Remo was the topic of the week.

Mahmood and Blanco will represent Italy with 'Brividi', the first song that will be among the contenders in May. Italy is currently leading the winner market @3.90 which is noticeably short keeping in mind that we still haven't heard 32 songs and Italy's running order is not decided by the producer but is a result of a random draw.

The fact that most of the already known songs in Semi-Finals and National Finals to come are underwhelming apart from Ochman's 'River' for Poland has led to discussions and complaints regarding the quality level of this year's contest. 

I did some research in the past five contests that were held with the 50/50 voting system and checked the fate of the first ten and ten last entries revealed each year, trying to detect any patterns, plus the revealing order of the Top-3 of each year and here are the findings:

First Ten songs revealed each year

Instead of 50 songs, the list contains 53 songs because some were revealed the same day and as a result there are twelve songs in 2019 and eleven in 2018.

Out of these 53 songs, 34 were performed in the Final. If the Big-5 are removed from that list, we have 18/37 entries qualifying to the Final. The percentage though is gradually improving year after year:

2016: 3/9 - 4/10

2017: 1/5 - 6/10

2018: 3/7 - 7/11

2019: 5/8 - 9/12

2021: 6/8 - 8/10

Out of these 53 entries, there are only two podium results: France finishing second last year and Italy second as well in 2019.

Last Ten songs revealed each year

The list one more is slightly bigger containing 55 songs. 35 of them were performed in the final. Removing the Big-5 and host countries we are left with 31/51 qualifying entries. 

2016: 9/10 - 7/8

2017: 5/12

2018: 7/10

2019: 6/10 - 5/9

2021: 8/13 - 7/12

The difference between the two ends in qualifying percentage is quite significant with 48.6% vs 60.8% in favour of the last entries revealed. 

The podium results are six, three times more than the first ten, including a win: 

First: Israel 2018

Second: Australia 2016, Bulgaria 2017

Third: Austria 2018, Russia 2019, Switzerland 2021

The other significant finding is the average ranking. It is 14.6 for the first ten (Big-5/hosts included) and 10.9 for the last ten (Big-5/hosts included).

The numbers support the theory that most of the favourites are revealed towards the end of the season.

Podium Average Revealing Order

I have also examined the revealing order of the podium songs and again the numbers lean towards the last part of the season.

The average revealing order for the Winner is 26. The earlier was Ukraine in 2016 (13) and the latest was Israel in 2018 (39). 

The rest are Portugal/17 (24), Netherlands/19 (31) and Italy/21 (23)

The average revealing order for the second place is 22. 

Australia/16 (36), Bulgaria/17 (42), Cyprus/18 (22), Italy/19 (7), France/21 (3)

And finally, the average revealing order for the third place is 30.

Russia/16 (28), Moldova/17 (16), Austria/18 (36), Russia/19 (39), Switzerland/21 (31)

National Final vs Internal Selection for a podium finish

The last thing I wanted to check is if the selection process affects the result as well.

The internally selected songs are more successful with 9/15 and the National Final winners have 6/15 podiums.

Surprisingly, the National Final Winners have three wins and Internally Selected have two. 

2018 was the only year where all three songs were selected internally. 

Last year was the first time where winner and runner up were National Final winners.

Numbers sometimes do not mean anything, and they don't give the whole picture but might give you some helpful clues. 

If you can read this sentence, you made it till the end!

Eurovision 2022: Semi Final 2: First thoughts and facts

 

Time to check the second final which could be named the Underdogs SF.

Half of the countries participating (9) have a negative qualifying record in the 50/50 era ('16-'21). 

Three of them will be performing on the first half: Finland, San Marino and Georgia. 

San Marino and Finland have a momentum recently so the unlucky one here is Georgia that has four unsuccessful attempts to qualify to the Final.

The second half will be a battlefield including six countries with a negative qualifying record: Poland, Romania, North Macedonia, Ireland, Montenegro and  Estonia.

This will be interesting...

Let's check now the current streaks and averages

Current Qualification Streak

1. Sweden 10 Qs

2. Cyprus 6 Qs

3. Israel 5 Qs

4. Serbia 3 Qs

5. Azerbaijan 2 Qs

6. San Marino 2 Qs

7. Malta 2 Qs

8. Belgium 1 Q

9. Finland 1 Q

10. Australia 1 NQ

11. North Macedonia 1 NQ

12. Czechia 1 NQ

13. Estonia 1 NQ

14. Ireland 2 NQs

15. Romania 3 NQs

16. Poland 3 NQs

17. Georgia 4 NQS

18. Montenegro 4 NQs

Qualification Record in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Cyprus 5/5

2. Sweden - Israel 4/4

4. Albania - Serbia - Azerbaijan 4/5

7. Malta - Czechia - Belgium 3/5

10. Finland - San Marino - Poland - Estonia 2/5

14. Romania 1/4

15. Georgia - North Macedonia - Ireland 1/5

18. Montenegro 0/4

This is a SF that will have plenty of betting opportunities. The SF looks so weak in paper that will be equally exciting with SF1. Remember last year when we thought that the first SF was the strong one and we ended with seven songs from SF2 finishing on the left hand side of the scoreboard.

Average Total Ranking in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Sweden 3.8

2. Israel 4

3. Australia 5.2

4. Cyprus 6

5. Azerbaijan 7.6

6. Malta 8.2

7. Belgium 8.2

8. Czechia 8.4

9. Serbia 9

10. Romania 10.5

11. Estonia 10.8

12. Poland 10.8

13. Finland 11.8

14. North Macedonia 12.2

15. San Marino 13

16. Georgia 13.6

17. Ireland 13.6 

18. Montenegro 15.3

Average Jury Ranking in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Sweden 3

2. Israel 3.8

3. Malta 3.8

4. Australia 4.6

5. Czechia 6

6. Cyprus 6.8

7. Azerbaijan 7.6

8. Belgium 8.6

9. Serbia 9

10. Romania 10.8

11. North Macedonia 12

12. Finland 12.2

13. Estonia 12.2

14. Georgia 12.8

15. Poland 13.2

16. Montenegro 13.3

17. San Marino 13.4

18. Ireland 13.8

Average Televoting Ranking  in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Cyprus 5.8

2. Sweden 6.5

3. Israel 7.3

4. Azerbaijan 7.6

5. Australia 8

6. Estonia 8

7. Poland 8.2

8. Serbia 9

9. Belgium 9.6

10. Finland 10

11. Romania 10.5

12. Czechia 11

13. Malta 11.4

14. San Marino 11.8

15. North Macedonia 11.8

16. Ireland 12.8

17. Georgia 13.6

18. Montenegro 14.5

Checking the splits, it is obvious that this is a juries-oriented SF. Malta and North Macedonia that were Jury winners in their SFs last year and '19, rank 13th and 15th in Televoting. 

Australia that has won its SF twice ('16-'19) ranks just fifth as well.

History is not very indicative of what will happen this year, but stats last year got right 8/10 in SF1 and 6/10 in SF2.

The most interesting part of the national finals season is here with new songs revealed every other day from now on. 

Eurovision 2022: Semi Final 1: First thoughts and facts

 

What's another year! The allocation draw for the Semi Finals happened yesterday and the count down for Eurovision 2022 has officially started!!!

We only know Bulgaria's song so far but statistically and history wise this is considered the strong SF of the year. 

Checking the countries' record in the 50/50 era (2016-2021), this SF has 12/18 countries with a positive Qualifying record.

It also contains 6/10 SF winners of the same era and the most impressive fact is that Ukraine that has the best average ranking has not won a SF even though it won the trophy back in 2016!

Now to the less fortunate. Five countries have a negative qualifying record. Three of them will perform in the first half (Latvia, Switzerland, Slovenia) and three in the second (Croatia, Iceland). Taking in consideration the momentum, Latvia and Slovenia are the ones to be in trouble and they will need to put some extra effort to qualify. 

I will post some voting patterns later in the season but for the moment I will just post some rankings with the qualification records, current streaks and the Ranking averages (Total-Juries-Televoting) just to have an idea 

Current Qualification Streak

1. Ukraine 12 Qs

2. Netherlands 4 Qs

3. Bulgaria 4 Qs

4. Norway 4 Qs

5. Albania 3 Qs

6. Switzerland 2 Qs

7. Russia 2 Qs

8. Iceland 2 Qs

9. Greece 2 Qs

10. Moldova 1 Q

11. Lithuania 1 Q

12. Portugal 1 Q

13. Slovenia 1 NQ

14. Denmark 1 NQ

15. Armenia 2 NQ

16. Austria 2 NQ

17. Croatia 3 NQ

18. Latvia 4 NQ

Qualification Record in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Bulgaria - Netherlands 4/4

3. Ukraine 3/3

4. Norway 4/5

5. Russia 3/4

6. Portugal 2/3

7. Albania - Moldova - Lithuania - Denmark - Austria - Greece 3/5

13. Armenia 2/4

14. Switzerland - Slovenia - Croatia - Iceland 2/5

18. Latvia 1/5

Taking in consideration the momentum that Switzerland and Iceland are building in the last two contests and he fact that 12 more countries have a positive record (it could have been 13 if Croatia didn't miss the Final last year even though it finished in Top-10 both with Juries and Televoting), this is the toughest SF ever, at least in paper.

Average Total Ranking in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Ukraine 3

2. Bulgaria 4

3. Netherlands 4.3

4. Russia 6.3

5. Portugal 6.7

6. Norway 7.2

7. Moldova 8.2

8. Lithuania 9

9. Austria 9.4

10. Switzerland 9.6

11. Armenia 10

12. Greece 10.2

13. Denmark 10.6

14. Iceland 10.6

15. Albania 11.4

16. Slovenia 11.6

17. Croatia 12

18. Latvia 14

Average Jury Ranking in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Bulgaria 3.3

2. Netherlands 3.5

3. Ukraine 5

4. Russia 7

5. Portugal 7.3

6. Norway 8.2

7. Switzerland 8.4

8. Austria 8.8

9. Moldova 9.2

10. Armenia 9.5

11. Greece 9.6

12. Albania 11

13. Slovenia 11

14. Croatia 11.2

15. Lithuania 11.4

16. Iceland 11.6

17. Denmark 11.6

18. Latvia 12.2

Average Televoting Ranking  in 50/50 era (2016-2021)

1. Ukraine 2.3

2. Bulgaria 5

3. Russia 5

4. Portugal 6

5. Norway 6.6

6. Netherlands 7

7. Moldova 7.2

8. Lithuania 8.2

9. Switzerland 9.6

10. Iceland 9.8

11. Greece 9.8

12. Armenia 10

13. Denmark 10.2

14. Croatia 10.4

15. Albania 10.6

16. Austria 10.8

17. Slovenia 12.2

18. Latvia 14.2

This is theoretically a televoting oriented SF and it will be very interesting to see which countries will rise to the occasion and which ones will flop.

Buonasera Signore e Signori!

 

This has been a very intense year indeed and tonight will be no exception.

Since the rehearsals started, we have seen numerous changes on the lead with Malta, France and Italy being up there followed by Switzerland and Iceland.

We have lost Bulgaria that was among the favourites and Ukraine has emerged as a dark horse and currently sits fourth in odds.

Now to the Million Dollar question! Who's going to win? This is a tough one! This year has been the most open since at least 2011. All songs in Top-5/6 have their vulnerabilities and that makes things very very interesting for tonight. Some of them are strong with Juries, other are strong with Televoting and some are average with both constituencies but could emerge in case someone else flops.

When I started writing about 2021, I had the feeling that in this post-covid Eurovision people are looking for a reason to party, forget for a night all the problems and difficulties of the past year and have fun. The SF results gave me the same impression with lighter, fun songs qualifying.

If there is one thing, I'm sure about is that tonight, we will have the smallest winning margin of the 50/50 voting era (currently 23pts - 2016). 

I have spent the last few days watching the different metrics (YouTube views, like-dislike ratio, charts, social media mentions ) and have taken in consideration all those numbers in my prediction/estimation for the Final.

Without further ado this is my 1 -26 prediction/estimation for tonight. Just a note for the points. The numbers might be inflated as I'm estimating the best-case scenario with each constituency

1. Italy 480 - 540 pts

J: 4th/ 180-210 pts - TV: 2nd/ 300-330pts

Currently the big favourite. Maneskin have conquered the top from the first rehearsal and have stayed there for the longest part of this week. They are performing in 24, surrounded by some jury magnets that highlights their televoting quality. 

Ukraine is now challenging their No1 status there, but the big question mark is how they will perform with Juries. They need a minimum of 180-200 pts there to feel safe. If they reach that threshold, win is theirs. The song might seem a bit aggressive, but Damiano is vocally perfect and there is no reason for Juries to punish them.

The win is currently @ 3.20. There may be a better timing to find a better price during the Jury voting if they are 3rd - 5th.

For those that feel confident for their Televote win the odds are in the 2.25-2.50 area.

2. Malta 430 - 510 pts

J: 1st/ 230-280 pts  - TV: 4th/ 200-230pts

Currently the third favourite @ 6.40. Will fight with France for the Jury win (@4.10 and has a big chance for the win if it makes it to the Top-4 with Televoting. That is Malta's biggest problem in general and starting in slot 6 does not help at all. 

Juries are ok to give the win to an entry that start early in the show, but Televoters are not that keen. Only Russia in 2019 managed to finish in Top-4...

The other tell that the running order suggests is that Malta has not won the Televoting in the SF and was not even second, otherwise the producers would have given them a better spot.

If they nail the Televoting though, there are in for the win, but it can equally flop and drop a few spots.

3. Switzerland 430 - 490 pts

J: 3rd/ 210-240 pts - TV: 3rd/ 220-250pts

The potential default winner. Switzerland has done its full circle in and out of the hot favourites circle. Currently is fifth in odds @ 13.00.

Juries will highly rank this one and will get some Televoting love. I might have overestimated its Televoting power, but it will be up there. If the winning threshold drops below 500 pts with four countries over 400pts each, Switzerland could benefit and win. 

Running order (11) suggests that did very well in SF.

Top-4 finish @ 2.10 - 2.25 is a safe bet.

4. Ukraine 410 - 470 pts

J: 8th/ 110-120 pts - TV: 1st/ 300-350pts

Our dark horse. During the SF on Tuesday Ukraine was trading @30-36! It has come a long way and the main reason is that it is charting everywhere, and the YouTube views and likes are massive. 

If the Jury score is better than the one above, brace yourselves for a surprise winner!

Winning the Televoting is currently @ 3.75 - 4.20 and Top-4 @ 1.80-1.95

The Win is currently @ 8.00-8.20

5. France 395 - 485 pts

J: 2nd/ 220-260 pts - TV: 5th/ 175-225pts

The second favourite now, though it has started drifting as of this morning. I have been sceptical about France since the first time that I have heard it. I do get its jury appeal, I do get its televoting appeal with certain demographics, but I do think that having it 5th is the super optimistic scenario for France. 

Being sandwiched between Lithuania, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan it helps it stand out, but people will still be talking about Ukraine when this is on.

It needs a landslide win with Juries to stand a chance.

6. Iceland 290 - 360 pts

J: 5th/ 150-180 pts - TV: 6th/ 140-180pts

Iceland using the live on tape has totally killed their momentum. People know that they are not live on stage and that might be off putting. They may score better with Televoting than my prediction, but 4th place is its ceiling. 

If you are a believer Top-5 is currently @ 2.74

7. Lithuania 190 - 220 pts

J: 12th/ 80-90 pts - TV: 7th/ 110-130pts

Lithuania has lost its momentum. Televoting can guarantee a secure Top-10 finish but wouldn't be surprised if it missed Top-10. 

8. Portugal 175 - 195 pts

J: 7th/ 125-135 pts - TV: 15th/ 50-60pts

The other late bloomer that might end up finishing in Top-10 and no one will be surprised.

Top-10 @ 1.90-2.08

9. Finland 165 - 185 pts

J: 13th/ 75-85 pts - TV: 9th/ 90-100pts

Another charts bloomer. YouTube views and like plus the charting suggest a strong televoting result that might guarantee a Top-10 finish. No value there though.

10. Russia 150 - 180 pts

J: 15th/ 50-60 pts - TV: 8th/ 100-120pts

Mamma Russia has the allies and the televoting power that can secure a Top-10 result.

If you believe in Russian Woman Top-10 is @ 2.75-3.00

I will continue with my 11-26 estimations just for the bragging rights before getting to the betting part of the post

11. Netherlands 150 - 180 pts

J: 6th/ 130-150 pts - TV: 22nd/ 20-30pts

12. San Marino 125 -145 pts

J: 18th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 10th/ 90-100pts

13. Belgium 130 - 145 pts

J: 9th/ 100-110 pts - TV: 19th/ 30-35pts

14. Sweden 120 -140 pts

J: 10th/ 95-105 pts - TV: 20th/ 25-35pts

15. Serbia 115 - 135 pts

J: 16th/ 45-55 pts - TV: 11th/ 70-80pts

16. Bulgaria 115 - 135 pts

J: 11th/ 90-100 pts - TV: 21st/ 25-35pts

17. Cyprus 110 -130 pts

J: 14th/ 55-65 pts - TV: 13th/ 55-65pts

18. Azerbaijan 95 -115 pts

J: 20th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 12th/ 60-70pts

19. Norway 90 - 110 pts

J: 19th/ 35-45 pts - TV: 14th/ 55-65pts

20. Greece 80 -100 pts

J: 17th/ 40-50 pts - TV: 16th/ 40-50pts

21. Albania 65 - 85 pts

J: 22nd/ 30-40 pts - TV: 17th/ 35-45pts

22. Moldova 65 - 85 pts

J: 21st/ 30-40 pts - TV: 18th/ 35-45pts

23. Israel 40 - 60 pts

J: 23rd/ 20-30 pts - TV: 23rd/ 20-30pts

24. Spain 25 - 40 pts

J: 24th/ 15-25 pts - TV: 25th/ 10-15pts

25. Germany 20 - 30 pts

J: 26th/ 5-10 pts - TV: 24th/ 15-25pts

26. UK 15 - 25 pts

J: 25th/ 10-15 pts - TV:26th/ 5-10pts

Betting Time

The SF bets could have been better, especially SF2, but the fact that I had 8/10 in both SFs with the 9th and 10th spots being missed and 11th and 12th making it is a proof that I'm heading to the right direction.

The results so far

SF - 1

Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units - Lost

Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units - Won

Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 1.38 (3.68) - 20 units - Open

Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units - Open

Units played: 200

Units returned: 191

Open Units: 25

SF - 2

Denmark Q - 2.45 - 50 units - Lost

Austria Q - 2.085 - 100 units - Lost

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units - Lost

Portugal NQ - 4.50 - 25 units - Lost

Units played: 200

Units returned: 0

So, I have 2 open bets from SF-1 and 191 units to add to the 600 that were reserved for the Final, so 791 units in total.

And here we go

Final 

Ukraine Top-4 Finish - 1.80 - 191 units

Italy Enhanced Win - 3.10 - 200 units

Ukraine Televote Winner - 3.75 - 100 units

Netherlands to beat Spain - 1.61 - 200 units

Russia Top-10 Finish - 2.75 - 50 units

And my fun bets

Israel Last - 10.00 - 25 units

Serbia Top of Region - 3.00 - 25 units

Units played: 791

Open Units: 25

For those following the bet on Italy to win, if you have the patience and wait for the Jury voting, I reckon you will find it at a better price.

Good luck with your bets tonight. Thank you all for your support and trust during the whole Eurovision season!

I will try to beat the post Eurovision depression by posting about the results and my betting outcome.

The Dark Arts of Final's Running Order - The Myth of No13 and the Pimp Slot

 

There is a very crucial point for a Eurovision entry's fate that sometimes we tend to underestimate and this is the running order. 

Since 2013 that the producers are deciding for the running order, with the countries just drawing for the first or second half, there are a few tells hidden there that might tip us about the chances of a song.

I have studied the 2014-2019 running orders (applying the 50/50 system in 2014 and 2015) and these are my findings. Grab your popcorn and have fun!

The Semi Final Winners

So far, we had 12 SFs and the split is 6 in the first half and 6 in the second.

The earliest slot that a winner had is 7 (Norway 2018) and managed to finish 15th, by far the worst performance. To be fair with the producers, Norway has been the weakest of all SF winners along with Australia 2019.

The other slots of the first half:

10: Sweden 2015 - Winner

11: Austria 2014 - Winner

     Portugal 2017 - Winner

12: Netherlands 2019 - Winner

13: Australia 2016 - 2nd

First half is not that bad with 4/6 winners performing there.

There is a concern though regarding their Televoting performance. Sweden and Netherlands finished third and Australia finished fourth.

Austria and Portugal finished first both with Juries and Televoting. 

Things looking better with Juries for Sweden and Australia, both winning with a huge margin. 

Netherlands is the only winner of the first half that hasn't won Juries or Televoting.

And now moving to the second half. 

The earliest draw for a winner is slot 18 (Russia 2016) that finished third, even though they won Televoting.

The rest of the slots

22: Israel 2018 - Winner

24: Netherlands 2014 - 2nd

25: Russia 2015 - 2nd

      Bulgaria 2017 - 2nd

      Australia 2019 - 9th

     

So, with great certainty we can assume that if a song from SF2 is placed in slot 25 must have won the SF. 

The other observation is that we only have 1/6 Winners worse record than the first half.

The other interesting finding is that apart from Russia only Israel won the Televoting

Semi Finals Runner Ups

Things are getting trickier for the second places, where we have a bigger diaspora of slots. In the first half we have

3: Israel 2015 - 9th

    Czechia 2019 - 11th

6: Romania 2014 - 10th

7: Moldova 2017 - 3rd

8: Hungary 2017 - 8th

   North Macedonia 2019 - 7th

13: Belgium 2015 - 4th

Israel in 3 didn't make a sense, but the first six they were placed in 3,6,7 and 8 had something in common. They were very vulnerable in one of the two constituencies (Js for Isr, Rom, Mol and Hun - TV for Cze and N.Mac). 

Belgium that was solid in both got a well-deserved 13.

And now let's have a look at the second half

20: Sweden 2018 - 7th

21: Hungary 2014 - 5th

      Ukraine 2016 - Winner

25: Cyprus 2018 - 2nd

26: Armenia 2016 - 7th

Things look better here, with the only Winner (Ukraine 2016) so far that has not won its SF. 

The overwhelming fact about the runner ups is that apart from Ukraine 2016 that improved its finishing and from Cyprus 2018 that maintained the same place in the Final, the other 10 finished lower. 

It does make sense in a broader field of course, but it impressive that only three made it to the Top-3 and only five made it to the Top-5!

Podium Rankings by slot

The Winners are concentrated in five slots

10: Sweden 2015

11: Austria 2014

      Portugal 2017

12: Netherlands 2019

21: Ukraine 2016

22: Israel 2018

The Runner Ups are also scattered in five slots

13: Australia 2016

22: Italy 2019

24: Netherlands 2014

25: Bulgaria 2017

      Cyprus 2018

27: Italy 2015* (finished 3rd but would be 2nd with the 50/50 voting system)

2018 is the only year that the Winner and Runner Up perform in the same half...

Let's have a look at the Third places as well.

5: Austria 2018

    Russia 2019 

7: Moldova 2017

13: Sweden 2014

18: Russia 2016

25: Russia 2015* (finished 2nd but would be 3rd with the 50/50 voting system)

There is only one Pimp Slot Podium Finish (Italy 2015).

The ideal slots are 11-13, 21-22 and 24-25, but we haven't had a Winner after 22. 

Netherlands' draw in 23 looks a bit more suspicious now, having only Belgium 2017 finishing 4th...and the rest of the entries used as fillers.

Average Rankings by Slot and other Facts

1. 

Average Ranking: 15 

Average Jury Ranking: 15

Average Televoting Ranking: 15.7

Best Ranking: Ukraine 2014 - 7th

Worst Ranking: Israel 2017 - 23rd

Interesting Facts: No entry has finished higher than 7th in Total (Ukraine 2014) - 6th with Juries (Belgium 2016) and 7th with Televoting (Ukraine 2018)

2. 

Average Ranking: 21.7

Average Jury Ranking: 19.2

Average Televoting Ranking: 19.3

Best Ranking: Belarus 2014 - Albania 2019 -17th

Worst Ranking: France 2015 - 26

Interesting Facts: The death slot! By far the worst slot in the Final. 

3/4 of the SF qualifiers that appeared in that slot were saved either by Juries or Televoting.

No entry has cracked the Top-10 with Juries or Televoting...

3.

Average Ranking: 14

Average Jury Ranking: 11.7

Average Televoting Ranking: 17.2

Best Ranking: Israel 2015 - 9th

Worst Ranking: Slovenia 2018 - 22nd

Interesting Facts: 3 entries finished Top-10 with Juries, 1 with Televoting

4. 

Average Ranking: 16

Average Jury Ranking: 14.7

Average Televoting Ranking: 15.5

Best Ranking: Estonia 2015 - 8th

Worst Ranking: Germany 2019 - 25th

Interesting Facts: 2/5 SF qualifiers were Jury and Televoting saves.

5.

Average Ranking: 13.7

Average Jury Ranking: 12.3

Average Televoting Ranking: 15

Best Ranking: Austria 2018, Russia 2019 - 3rd

Worst Ranking: UK 2015 - 27th (last)

Interesting Facts: Both Austria and Russia finished lower in their respective SFs (4th and 6th) hence the early draw.

6. 

Average Ranking: 11.8

Average Jury Ranking: 12.3

Average Televoting Ranking: 13.5

Best Ranking: Estonia 2018 - 8th

Worst Ranking: Italy 2016 - 16th

Interesting Facts: 2/5 SF qualifiers were Jury and Televoting saves.

7.

Average Ranking: 12

Average Jury Ranking: 12.7

Average Televoting Ranking: 11

Best Ranking: Moldova 2017 - 3rd

Worst Ranking: San Maarino 2019 - 19th

Interesting Facts: The first slot with 2 Top-5 finishes

8.

Average Ranking: 12.8

Average Jury Ranking: 15.5

Average Televoting Ranking: 12.8

Best Ranking: Bulgaria 2016 - 4th

Worst Ranking: Portugal 2018 - 26th

Interesting Facts: The first slot with 3 Top-10 rankings.

9.

Average Ranking: 9.2

Average Jury Ranking: 11.8

Average Televoting Ranking: 10.5

Best Ranking: Sweden 2016, 2019 - 5th

Worst Ranking: UK 2018, 24th

Interesting Facts: 5/6 Top-10 rankings but no podium finish

10.

Average Ranking: 16.8

Average Jury Ranking: 15.8

Average Televoting Ranking: 12.8

Best Ranking: Sweden 2015, Winner

Worst Ranking: Germany 2016 - 26th (last)

Interesting Facts: The second best ranking after Sweden's win is 15th...

11.

Average Ranking: 7.2

Average Jury Ranking: 4.8

Average Televoting Ranking: 10

Best Ranking: Austria 2014, Portugal 2017 - Winners

Worst Ranking: Cyprus 2015 - 18th

Interesting Facts: The best average rankings for Total and Juries

12.

Average Ranking: 9.7

Average Jury Ranking: 10.8

Average Televoting Ranking: 10

Best Ranking: Netherlands 2019 - Winner

Worst Ranking: Germany 2014 - 19th

Interesting Facts: Second best result Australia 2015 - 5th

13. 

Average Ranking: 9.3

Average Jury Ranking: 8.7

Average Televoting Ranking: 9.7

Best Ranking: Australia 2016 - 2nd

Worst Ranking: Greece 2019 - 21st

Interesting Facts: The last Top-10 result is Australia 2016 - 2nd

14. 

Average Ranking: 18

Average Jury Ranking: 17.3

Average Televoting Ranking: 19.3

Best Ranking: Czechia 2018 - 6th

Worst Ranking: France 2014 - 26th (last)

Interesting Facts: 4/6 Bottom-5 rankings

15. 

Average Ranking: 13

Average Jury Ranking: 18.3

Average Televoting Ranking: 10

Best Ranking: Russia 2014, Norway 2019 - 6th

Worst Ranking: Greece 2015 - 20th

Interesting Facts: 3/6 SF qualifiers were Jury and Televoting saves.

16.

Average Ranking: 20

Average Jury Ranking: 17.8

Average Televoting Ranking: 20.2

Best Ranking: Lithuania 2016 - 9th

Worst Ranking: Spain 2017, UK 2019 - 26th (last)

Interesting Facts: 2 lasts places and one Bottom-5

17.

Average Ranking: 19.7

Average Jury Ranking: 18.5

Average Televoting Ranking: 18.7

Best Ranking: Norway 2017, Iceland 2019 - 10th

Worst Ranking: Slovenia 2014, Germany 2015, Finland 2018 - 25th 

Interesting Facts: 4/6 Bottom-5

18. 

Average Ranking: 13.8

Average Jury Ranking: 13

Average Televoting Ranking: 13

Best Ranking: Russia 2016 - 3rd

Worst Ranking: Poland 2015 - 22nd

Interesting Facts: The first Podium ranking of the 2nd half

19.

Average Ranking: 16.3

Average Jury Ranking: 13.5

Average Televoting Ranking: 15

Best Ranking: Latvia 2015 - 6th

Worst Ranking: Belarus 2019 - 24th

Interesting Facts: Only 2/6 Top-10s

20. 

Average Ranking: 10.2

Average Jury Ranking: 13.3

Average Televoting Ranking: 11.3

Best Ranking: Romania 2017, Sweden 2018 - 7th

Worst Ranking: Latvia 2016 - 15th

Interesting Facts: Middle of the road slot with all rankings between 7th-15th

21.

Average Ranking: 15.3

Average Jury Ranking: 15.2

Average Televoting Ranking: 14.8

Best Ranking: Ukraine 2016 - Winner

Worst Ranking: Germany 2017 - 25th

Interesting Facts: 2 Top-5 and 3 Bottom-5 entries

22. 

Average Ranking: 12.2

Average Jury Ranking: 9.7

Average Televoting Ranking: 14.7

Best Ranking: Israel 2018 - Winner

Worst Ranking: Ukraine 2017 - 24th

Interesting Facts: The first slot in second half with 2 podium finishings

23.

Average Ranking: 14.3

Average Jury Ranking: 12.5

Average Televoting Ranking: 14.2

Best Ranking: Belgium 2017 - 4th

Worst Ranking:  Georgia 2016 - 20th

Interesting Facts: Only 2 Top-10s

24. 

Average Ranking: 9.2

Average Jury Ranking: 10.8

Average Televoting Ranking: 8.8

Best Ranking: Netherlands 2014 - 2nd

Worst Ranking: Ireland 2018 - 16th

Interesting Facts: The slot with the best Televoting average

25.

Average Ranking: 10.7

Average Jury Ranking: 9.7

Average Televoting Ranking: 10.2

Best Ranking: Bulgaria 2017, Cyprus 2018 - 2nd

Worst Ranking: San Marino 2014, UK 2016 - 24th

Interesting Facts: 3 Podium rankings. The only slot

26. 

Average Ranking: 13.3

Average Jury Ranking: 19.5

Average Televoting Ranking: 10.8

Best Ranking: Italy 2018 - 5th

Worst Ranking: UK 2014, Spain 2019 - 22nd

Interesting Facts: The slot with the biggest discrepancy between Juries and Televoting

The One That Will Drive The Punters Mad...

 

The first Semi Final is already history! No shocker qualifiers or non-qualifiers there! 

Romania was heading for a car crash and Televoting did not save them. 

Croatia was the biggest surprise, thought it failed to lift off even though it started the SF being ahead of Israel and Azerbaijan. 

Regarding Israel, that was the Jury save of the Semi and Azerbaijan must have sailed with Televoting. 

But we are here to check the second Semi Final so let's move on.

The qualifying odds suggest that we have nine certain qualifiers, a 50/50 entry, two outsiders and five hopeless entries. Will be it be that easy? I beg to differ...

1. Iceland (+1)

Juries: 2

Televoting: 1

Estimated Points: 260-305

The contest has already finished for Dadi and Gagnamanid before it has even started. A positive covid test and the dream is over. Will that affect their chances? Probably on Saturday, but I do expect some sympathy votes going their way. 

Winning the SF @.5.50-6.00 has some value if you favour the sympathy vote scenario.

2. Switzerland (-1)

Juries: 1

Televoting: 3

Estimated Points: 245-275

Tough week for Switzerland that came back on track after the Jury show. They are back in Top-4 and Gjon's can definitely with the Jury in this SF. He needs it for a good running order in the Final.

Price too short for the SF Win or Top-3

3. Greece (+3)

Juries: 4

Televoting: 4

Estimated Points: 190-220

Stefania is carrying this song and she has lots of charisma. Not sure if it can make it to the Top-10 in the Final but is sailing there. 

4. San Marino (+1)

Juries: 8

Televoting: 2

Estimated Points: 180-210

FloRida is in RotterDam and Adrenalina is high! This is a certain qualifier and a Top-3 finishing in the SF could be within reach. Currently is @ 3.85 and it has some value.

5. Bulgaria (-2)

Juries: 3

Televoting: 7

Estimated Points: 160-190

The biggest enigma of this SF. Beautiful staging and vocals from Victoria, it is failing on metrics so far. Qualifying won't be a concern and it remains to be seen if this one will be along the contenders, or it will start drifting as of tonight.

6. Finland (-2)

Juries: 7

Televoting: 5

Estimated Points: 155-175

Great running order, has its crowd and is safe as well. There is no value in any of the available bets though.

7. Serbia (+2)

Juries: 9

Televoting: 6

Estimated Points: 120-145

Looking now at the Q price of this one (1.70) just before the rehearsals started and the current one (1.26) and you can see the value that was hidden there. NQ now would be a shock.

8. Portugal (+3)

Juries: 6

Televoting: 12

Estimated Points: 105-125

The biggest improvement of this SF. Great staging, jury friendly and it looks like it's sailing to the Final. 

For those of you who find the song very boring or dated, not to qualify is @ 4.50 and given Portugal's record there is some value there. Just two ago Sweden's NQ was @4 and Sweden had 10/11 Qs when Portugal has 4/13...

9. Austria (-1)

Juries: 5

Televoting: 13

Estimated Points: 105-125

Portugal has taken some of its jury glory, but Austria has a nice simple staging and just before the amateurish Polish entry and Moldova's madness it stands a chance. There is only one case of a country that failed to qualify to the Final, being Top-5 with Juries (Malta) and that makes Austria's odds look attractive.

This one was already tipped @ 2.30 before rehearsals started.

10. Denmark (+3)

Juries: 11

Televoting: 8

Estimated Points: 100-125

Most people have this one written off but...Having the Pimp slot entry @2.50-3.00 is value in the long term. 

Is it amateurish? Yes! 

Is it a bit cheesy? Yes!

But they are having fun on the stage, and they manage to create that 80's-euro pop vibe. This is the year that people need happiness and Denmark has the package.

11. Albania (+3)

Juries: 10

Televoting: 11

Estimated Points: 85-105

Odds suggest that Albania will be among the 10 qualifiers. This is a borderline for me, and I do have a theory for it. Gjon's that represents Switzerland is of Albanian origin and I do have a suspicion that the Albanian diaspora will vote for him. Anxhela was born in Albania but comes from the Greek minority there. 

I'm not trying to create a diplomatic incident or anything, but Gjon's is considered the unofficial Albanian representative.

Not touching this one, but in my opinion, there is some value in NQ.

12. Moldova (-5)

Juries: 13

Televoting: 10

Estimated Points: 75-95

If the producer was any other person in the world, Moldova would be a certain non-qualifier, but we are talking about Kirkorov, and he has the power to move things. They tried to play it safe for the Juries where Natalia failed to deliver and there is not much going on for the viewers. 

Currently Q is @2.00-2.25. I might reconsider and place a bet on this one tonight during the SF. 

13. Czechia (-3)

Juries: 14

Televoting: 9

Estimated Points: 75-95

I had high hopes for this one, but Benny didn't seem to bother much. I still believe that it will be Top-10 with Televoters but Juries must have buried it. 

There is a huge discrepancy between exchange market and bookies for its Q odds (5.60 vs 3.75). Will be watching the public reactions in social media for this and maybe place a live bet (I strongly recommend checking tellystats, a social media tracker that provides particularly useful information during the live shows)

14. Estonia (-2)

Juries: 12

Televoting: 15

Estimated Points: 50-75

And we are now entering officially to no man's land. The running order of this one has been the decisive factor. Had it been in the second half or slightly later, it would have a chance. Coming after San Marino does not help at all.

There is no value in the NQ odds.

15. Latvia (-)

Juries: 16

Televoting: 14

Estimated Points: 35-55

Samanta is living her dream and is on stage. She kept to herself and went all the way. Can that translate to a qualification? I'm afraid that no.

Last place in SF is @ 3.70 but she has her fans, and she can get some televoting love.

16. Georgia (-)

Juries: 15

Televoting: 17

Estimated Points: 35-55

This song deserves better, but Eurovision is not the correct platform for Tornike and his style. He came to do his thing which is admirable, but he does not connect with the audience or the juries. 

Finishing last @ 2.50 is too short for me.

17. Poland (-)

Juries: 17

Televoting: 16

Estimated Points: 25-45

There is a song every few years that I can't wait to see during the SF just to make sure that this is the last time I will be listening to it ever. This is the one for 2021!

Last place is @ 2.40 currently but there is no value either just in case a part of Polish diaspora decides to vote for it. 

Betting Time

I will start with what happened in SF1. 

These were my bets

Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units - Lost

Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units - Won

Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 1.38 ( 3.68) - 20 units - Open

Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units - Open

Units played: 200

Units returned: 191

Open Units: 25

These 191 units will be added to the 600 units for the Final as there is no reason to add them to my bets today.

For SF2 I have already tipped

Denmark Q - 2.40 - 25 units

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units

Austria Q - 2.30 - 50 units

meaning that I have 100 units left. 

I am topping up Denmark Q - 2.50 with an extra 25 units and the new total will be 

Denmark Q - 2.45 - 50 units

I will do the same with Austria adding Austria Q - 1.83 - 50 units and this is the main bet for the day

Austria Q - 2.085 - 100 units

Czechia stays the same 

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units

And finally my last 25 units will go the other value bet that I have mentioned 

Portugal NQ - 4.50 - 25 units

Portugal and Denmark have long term value. I am happy to lose them both, knowing though that the odds were both on my side.

Austria is my main bet and has many similarities with Belgium. Quality is always recognized in this contest.

So my book for SF2 looks like this

Denmark Q - 2.45 - 50 units

Austria Q - 2.085 - 100 units

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units

Portugal NQ - 4.50 - 25 units

New Total: 0

Open Units: 200

Good luck with your bets tonight!

 Stay tuned in Twitter  for any live bets