Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Latvia

 

First Thoughts:

Latvia along with Croatia are the two nations that have every right this year to blame their luck/EBU for being drawn in the wrong Semi-Final.

The change of rules was made to help those nations that have not qualified for a while to succeed, and Latvia instead is heading to a bloodbath.

'Aija' is a beautiful indie entry that offers diversity in terms of genres in Eurovision.

However, this is the wrong year and the wrong Semi-Final for that type of entries. The Semi Final is full of favourites and there are stronger slow tempo entries with a better history in the second half as well (Netherlands, Switzerland).

Latvia will be relying in quality and some points coming from the Nordic neighbours. Maybe a relatively good running order if EBU feels any guilt as well.

Would that be enough? Personally, I hope so but realistically they are an outsider. They will fight for the 10th spot with a group of other entries.

It reminds me of...

Slovenia '19, Latvia '19

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 2.5/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 30.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.1%

Best case scenario:

Qualify to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi-Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

40% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Latvia is currently NQ for me but still has a chance to make it to the Final. If so, being one of the few jury magnets, could get a decent result in mid table. It will be harder for them to qualify than finish in Top-15 in the Final.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Lithuania

 

First Thoughts:

'Stay' is a stereotypical safe Eurovision entry. Will not crash, it might qualify to the Final and be used as a filler for other entries.

Lithuania is incredibly lucky that they are in Semi-Final 2 and the chances are on their side.

It will be marginal and some of their voting allies like Latvia and Ireland that could guarantee minimum 18-20 points are on the other Semi.

They might not need them though. There are still a few friendly faces, and some 1-5 points here and there could be enough for the 50-60 points threshold.

The entry still gives me Melfest reject vibes though. 

If in the Final, they will need all the help they could get to avoid Bottom-5.

It reminds me of...

15-20 entries just in the last decade

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 5.5/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 26.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.1%

Best case scenario:

19th-22nd

Worst case scenario:

Non qualification

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

55% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Lithuania qualifying 7th-10th and then get a first half draw, performing third and finish in Bottom-5.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Australia

 

First Thoughts:

Voyager have finally made it to Eurovision! They have tried for some time and now it's their moment.

'Promise' is the first televote friendly entry that Aussies send since 2019.

Not exactly the televote magnet but, in a weak field like Semi-Final 2 and performing in the second half is more than enough for them to qualify.

Activating the Jury power in Final could be enough for them to finish mid-table. The best-case scenario would be a Top-10 finish that feels too much for the moment but remember where Australia was pre-rehearsals in 2019...

I personally like the song, but it is not very high on my list. It has potential though to come alive on stage.

Currently I have it as the second-best option to close Semi-Final 2 and if that is the case a Top-3 result in the Semi could give them a decent draw and a chance to chase Top-10.

For the moment 13th-18th seems like a fair estimation.

It reminds me of...

Estonia '22, Cyprus '16, Georgia '15

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 31/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.1%

Best case scenario:

10th-12th

Worst case scenario:

Non qualification

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

60% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Australia qualifying one way or the other to the Final and get enough points to avoid Bottom-5 but not enough to threaten the Top-10.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Estonia

 

First Thoughts:

Eesti Laul has not produced a great winner in the last few years and 'Bridges' follows the same tune.

Had it been in Semi-Final 1, qualification would have been an uphill. However, Semi-Final 2 is turning to one of the weakest Semi-Finals in history and Estonia, one way or the other, will find its way to the Final.

What happens there is a different story. This is a jury friendly song but not one of those that will force the jurors to vote for it. Some low scores and a few neighbour votes might be enough to save it from finishing Bottom-5.

Televoting wise, this is not a bad entry, but would you vote for your 8th-10th favorite song? 

'Bridges' might have some luck for a middle table result if they finish 3rd-4th in the Semi-Final which is not that farfetched with the current line-up, and they get a decent draw in the Final.

For me this is an entry that shouts 18th-22nd.

It reminds me of...

Estonia '12, Greece '15, Poland '17, Georgia '17

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 6.5/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 33.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.25%

Best case scenario:

13th-16th

Worst case scenario:

Non qualification

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

65% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

A strong finish near Top-3 in the Semi-Final and then used as a filler in the Final, finishing 18th-22nd.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: France

 

First Thoughts:

France has returned to the internal selection strategy in order to achieve a better result than last year and they have chosen wisely.

'Evidemment' is an entry that shouts Eurovision success and La Zarra an artist that clicked immediately with the Eurovision fans.

There was a lot of hype for France's song but in my opinion is another hit and miss French attempt for the win.

It does have all the ingredients there and it could potentially reach higher levels in the arena, but I still find it a bit stereotypical trying to build on the momentum that 'Voila' gave to France.

The intro is very promising, but the song gradually becomes repetitive and is missing 'The Moment'. 

I still think though that there is potential to be a solid Top-10 that could touch Top-3/4 if everything lands on their side.

It reminds me of...

France '21 in terms of stereotypicality, Malta '21

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 41/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.2% - 2%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

9th-14th

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Another decent result for France somewhere in Top-10, probably Top-5 with the Juries and that is all. If they get the staging perfect could aim for Top-5.

5th-9th

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Croatia

 

First Thoughts:

Croatia is going all in this year on a make-or-break situation, and I must admit that I feel for them.

With just 2 qualifications in the last 10 contests with the most recent one back in 2017 it was time for Croatia to try something different.

This is the first country so far that is trying to take advantage of the new rules that apply in Semi-Finals and will try to make it using a mid '00s recipe.

Mama SC is not a joke entry; it has a political background however I do expect most of the viewers to perceive it as a bad joke.

This entry will test the waters for similar songs in the future and will give some answers regarding this type of entries. Do they belong in the past or now that the jurors are not voting there is some room to go wild.

The thing is that a song just needs to find an audience and there is no negative voting in Eurovision. 

I do think that Croatia stands a chance to qualify but if they fail to make it, they will fail big finishing last.

If the later happens it is safe to assume that this will be the last Croatian entry in Eurovision for some time.

It reminds me of...

This is tricky...Germany '98, Austria '03,

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 1/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 22,5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.009%

Best case scenario:

Qualify to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Finish last in Semi - Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

60% not to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

If EBU finally decides to redeem themselves for all those bad draws that gave Croatia all these years and give them a favorable slot, with a momentum and the wow factor, Croatia can make it to the Final which is their goal.