Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Estonia

 

Espresso Macchiato - Tommy Cash

I have a hunch that 'Espresso Macchiato' will hunt Eurovision 2025 down for a long time. 

The hyping up of the entry has already started and the Tommy Cash PR machine has started applying the 'Europapa'/Joost textbook from last year, already charting in some countries and being the early talk of the town.

'Espresso Macchiato' is an entry that could go different directions in the next few months, but if there is one thing I can say with certainty is that Estonia will not win Eurovision!

I have not decided yet if the song is a joke/parody entry, a meta-joke or a statement/political comment about society. The videoclip and the staging in Eesti Laul made things more complicated. 

The song per se is a mockery of the Italian stereotypes sang in 'Italian', but it is just a vessel for Tommy Cash to sell his persona and is designed to dominate the Public vote.

He received Kaarija's endorsement, like Joost did last year, and the latter one endorsed him as well, trying to establish some short of 'The Bad Boys Club' in Eurovision that will have a representative each year trying to win the Public vote and turn the contest into a PR show.

The charting and streaming numbers so far suggest that 'Espresso Macchiato' has the same trajectory that 'Europapa' had last year. I have to admit that I was sceptical about 'Europapa' as well last year when it launched and remained sceptical throughout the season regarding its winning chances.

The same argument applies to 'Espresso Macchiato' and it is the Juries. No matter how well he will perform in Public vote, I still have my doubts about this, he will be tanked/penalised by Juries so hard that it will be out of contention early in the voting process. 

Netherlands last year received 58 Jury points before it was disqualified from the Final. And that was with a song that had a nice emotional instrumental part in the last part and was talking about unity and the pan-European values.

There is an argument floating around that if Tommy Cash is considered a favourite, the Juries somehow will give him a free pass and will boost its score, like they short of did with Finland in '23, but obviously that was not the case with Netherlands last year that was also considered a favourite. 

My projected Jury score for Estonia right now stands in the 25-50 points threshold and I don't think that it has enough/anything to push it into the three digit territory and this is where any discussion about the win ends once and for all.

Estonia's realistic goal, in my opinion, is a lower Top-10 result fuelled by a good Top-5/10 Public vote result. I do think that Tommy Cash's entry is divisive enough and the competition for the public vote will be harder for him, having other entries from the same region fighting for the top marks. My current projection is in the 75-175 point area, willing to re-access his numbers, but I do believe that 200-225 Public vote points is the maximum that he would get.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Tommy Cash trying to do any publicity stunt to grab public's attention and win the PV, but that not ending well. Bottom-5 with Juries and a decent Top-7/8 with the Public vote and a 9th place overall

Televoting Potential: 9/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 2/10

Total: 27/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 1%

Best case scenario:

Top-5

Worst case scenario:

16th-20th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 100-125

F: J: 25-50 - PV: 75-175 - Tot: 100-225

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Do you think Estonia can overcome the jury vote deficit?

You can hear my thoughts about Estonia in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Finland

 

Ich Komme - Erika Vikman

Finland once again has treated us with a national final of great quality and high standards!

Erika won by a landslide, as expected when the breakdown of the voting is 70% PV and 30% Juries. 

'Ich Komme' is a continuation of Finland's quest to win Eurovision through the Public Vote scoreboard. The staging of the UMK was stunning with three minutes full of sexual tension and climax.

Erika is a very competent and full of charisma artist and lifts the song with her personality and stage show. I reckon that this is Eurovision ready and could do really well in Basel. Knowing already half of the songs and having listened to a few more countries that have not decided yet, Finland is the country that has the most PV potential. This is a great starting point for them and could boost their chances for a great result in May. 

If the goal is to finish in Top-5, Finland has a chance to be in the mix. My biggest concern is their jury appeal. 'Cha cha cha' received 150 jury points mostly because it was considered a favourite and some jurors did not want to shut down Kaarija's path to victory.

I am not going to state that 'Ich komme' is 'Cha cha cha 2.0' but it does not carry the same weight nevertheless. The staging is full of sexual references that will not go well with the majority of the jurors and I struggle to see a path for a three digit score with them. And this is the reason that any discussion about Finland winning Eurovision is more of wishful thinking than a realistic scenario.

Last year I mentioned in my posts and in the podcast that having this type of entries in the line-up will make jurors more open and receptive, awarding the artistry and show that the televote magnets offer and render these entries more credible. Croatia '24 finished 3rd scoring 200+ points with them and Ireland finished 6th over the jury friendly entries from Portugal and Sweden.

However, the jury-oriented entries managed to get a wider support from the public vote, that helped widen the gap between the jury and public vote favourites. France and Switzerland finished 4th and 5th in the Public Vote respectively, both scoring 220+ points and both received points from all countries! And this is where Finland's path to be a Public Vote Top-3 gets tricky. 

Add to that the X-factor of Israel's public vote score and Finland could end up finishing anywhere between 6th - 10th which is where I think it will end up in the end. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Finland finishing 2nd in the Semi - Final, getting a decent running order for the Final and finishing 7th with a J: 50-80 pts - PV: 150-200 split. 

Televoting Potential: 9/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 38/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1% - 3%

Best case scenario:

Top-4

Worst case scenario:

Right-hand side result in the Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 160-200

F: J: 50-80 - PV: 150-200 - Tot: 200-280

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Do you think Finland has enough to win Eurovision?

You can hear my thoughts about Finland in the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Greece

 

'Asteromata' - Klavdia

The first Greek national final after a decade had no surprises and Klavdia will represent Greece with 'Asteromata', an ethnic ballad that talks about the uprooting of the Pontian Greeks a century ago from the Ottoman Empire. Klavdia is a Pontian herself and the song is an homage to her ancestors. 

In all fairness 'Asteromata' has been the strongest entry of the rather poor in quality Ethnikos Telikos. When I first listened to the studio version my first thought was that I totally get why the Greek audience and jury will opt for this option but at the same time I could totally see Greece flopping in the Semi - Final.

Klavdia is a strong vocalist but I find the song lacking the energy and passion that should have lifted it further. I get the impression that certain elements of the instrumentation were added without a purpose just for ticking the 'what the Europeans would want to listen to a Greek ethnic ballad' boxes. 

Greece will have some hard work to do regarding the staging. This will be the deciding factor between qualification and elimination. The market realised during the national final that the Greek odds were highly overestimated and there was a correction with Greece currently trading around 50 when it was trading  on high teens a week ago. 

My personal opinion is that Greece will be a borderline qualifier or non-qualifier and if in the Final a low mid-table result (15th-20th) would be fair. 

I will start with the good news. Greece will be performing in the first part of the 2nd Semi - Final, away from most of the public vote magnets that will be in the 1st Semi - Final. In theory this is the weakest of the Semis.

Greece needs a staging that will create a call for action that 'Asteromata' is lacking. It could be a powerful choreography or some visuals.

Now the bad news and my personal red flags. I will start with the numbers that they do not add up for Greece.

There are 3 solid allies in the Semi - Final (Armenia, Georgia, Serbia) that have a 100% of voting for Greece in Semi - Finals, however only Armenia steadily provides high scores. Australia and Germany in theory have Greek diasporas that could boost the Greek score but I wouldn't expect any high scores from them either.

There is a significant list of countries that is consistently not voting for  Greece in the Semi - Finals (Lithuania 0/3, Ireland 0/1, Austria 1/6, Latvia 1/4, Finland 1/5, Israel 1/3) and will be performing in the same Semi. 

Greece's public vote points in the '16-'24 era all come from the Balkans and the Caucasus region with the exception of '21 and '22 that were tailored-made entries for the Western audiences. The only Greek ethnic entry that managed to get some points from the West was 'Zari' last year.

This is the main reason why Greece barely makes the Public Vote Top-10 in the Semis, when they make it ('16:14th, '17:9th, '18:10th, '19:9th, '21:7th, '22:8th, '23:13th, '24:5th).

If the qualifying threshold is in the 40-45 points region, Greece has a chance. If the threshold moves above the 50 points things will get tough.

The running order will be another issue that Greece might need to tackle. Having Montenegro in the same half, with a slow tempo entry and its last qualification dating back in 2015, we have to assume that they will get a favourable #7 or #8 in the running order and that could leave Greece buried in #2 or #3...

Greece's only path for qualification goes through the votes that will come from the Western front and this is the main reason I am currently leaning towards a borderline non-qualification. 

Greece is not getting points from there recently or consistently. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Greece finishing 11th in the Semi - Final, missing the Final for 3-4 points. If somehow they make the cut, I expect a 15th-20h ranking. Finishing third in the International jury of the National final in a poor line-up is another red flag regarding the jury potential...

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 4/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 29/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% or lower

Best case scenario:

Left-hand side result in Final

Worst case scenario:

Non- qualification

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 30-45

F: J: 20-50 - PV: 25-35 - Tot: 45-85

Eurovision 2025 - Ethnikos Telikos 2025 - Preview

 

We are finally entering to the main part of the National Final's season and what a way to start the previews.

ERT is organising its first National Final in ten years and I was expecting a stronger line-up, given the interest regarding Eurovision from the Greek audience.

We are heading for a two horse race with a clear? favourite (Klavdia). Klavdia's 'Asteromata' is the song that currently is leading the odds @1.50, and also the views in ERT's official channel in Youtube. An ethnic ballad with many traditional influences and a dedicated national audience. From the first listen I recognised the reasons why the Greek public and Jury would vote for it. It has in theory most of the elements that the European audience and juries would look for in a Greek entry. 

Ethnic entries have indeed brought Greece's best result in the '00s and early '10s, boosted by the support of the Greek diaspora. However, two ethnic entries were responsible for Greece's first two non-qualifications back in 2016 and 2018. 

I do believe that 'Asteromata' fails to connect with the audience. It needs an amazing staging and charisma from Klavdia to lift it on stage. This is a jury bait entry and having Greece performing in the first half of the second Semi - Final in May, the same half with Montenegro that will be heavily backed from EBU and producers to qualify, might bring an early running order somewhere in the #2 - #4 area which is never great news for a slow tempo entry. Add Armenia, Australia, Latvia that are expected to have strong entries and will perform in the same half and Greece's chances for qualification might be in trouble. 

'Oneiro mou' back in 2018 had a far better running order in the Semi - Final, did manage to finish 10th in Public Vote, however only 11/53 points came from countries that will be in the same SF this year...

The only alternative option for Eurovision will be Evangelia's 'Vale'. Given the hype and Evangelia's efforts to represent Greece for some time, I would expect a stronger entry from her as well. Too many elements mixed together, with some of them working while others don't. Tries to be anthemic but a bit basic with a forced effort to have some ethnic elements in the end as well.

It could offer Greece an easier path to qualify to the Final, but it would get lost in the Final, scoring enough points with friends and allies to secure a low-mid table result. 

I do believe that Greece's achievable goal for Eurovision 2025 is to qualify and then avoid a Bottom-5 result. I do not prefer or endorse any of the two entries, I just state that 'Vale' might have an easier path to the Final but 'Asteromata' could have a better appeal with Juries and finish mid-table.

Moving to the National Final analysis, there will be a 50-25-25 (Public vote - National/International jury) voting system. Klavdia is considered the favourite for tonight because in theory, is leading the Public vote and the National jury. Evangelia, on the other side, could finish first or second with the Public vote but is expected to finish third or fourth with the Juries.

There are a few things that need to be taken in consideration though. First of all Greece has not had a NF for a while and there are no recent patterns or trends that could enlighten us. We can guess/estimate that the Greek jury will opt for Klavdia. 

We have no idea how the International jury will vote. They could go for the two favourites or add BARBZ to the mix. 

Things with the Public vote might be more complicated than people might think. The Final will be broadcasted the same time with three main sports events, reducing the percentage of potential voters and things could be more marginal.

Odds as well, could mean nothing and last year proved it spectacularly. Isaak was trading @27 in Germany, Sarah Bonnici @15 in Malta, Windows95man @10 in Finland, Hera Bjork @ 10 in Iceland, Bambie Thug @3.00 in Ireland, Nebulossa @12 in Spain etc.

All the odds mentioned above were  available the day of or during the National Finals. The odds are based on fan polls and the views but do not mean anything when the time of the voting starts.

In my opinion there are only two options when it comes to betting in National Finals:

a. Go for the underdog.

b. No bet.

Klavdia is the favourite to win, however there is no value in the available odds. I have taken a small bet on Evangelia @5.00 in Betfair Exchange and I do think that there is still value in odds over 3.00-3.50. 

Hopefully there will be more liquidity tomorrow but I wouldn't recommend high stakes.

Good luck to Greece and may the best song wins!!!

Eurovision 2025 Early thoughts - Montenegro

 

Dobrodošli - Nina Žižić

And here we are again to talk about Montenegro's entry. Drama is the main ingredient of the Eurovision National Finals season and Montenegro had lots of it!

NeonoeN decided to withdraw from the Contest after a video was made public with them performing live  version of their entry before the September 1st deadline, instead of waiting for EBU's approval, which 99% would have allowed them to participate.

'Dobrodošli' is a typical female Balkan ballad and Nina has a team behind her that knows how to stage an entry. The major red flag here is how do you sell a song in a 100% Public vote Semi-Final that finished 4th in its National Final that had some good entries but nothing outstanding?

Montenegro has by far the poorest track record in the Public vote since 2016. 

In their last five attempts, they have accumulated just 107 points in total, an average of 21.4 points per Contest. Their best result in that span was back in 2017 when Slavko Kalezic finished 11th (PV only). 

Things do get worse when someone realises that 74 out of these 107 points come from the other ex-Yugoslav Republics. Two of them are no longer participating and it is almost impossible to have the other three in the same Semi - Final with them. 

The only Contest since 2016 that Montenegro received some Public vote points outside of the ex-Yugoslavian nations is 2017 when they were awarded points from nine different countries.

The good news is that Slovenia and Serbia managed to qualify last year, in a Semi- Final that had indeed three ex-Yugoslavian nations though. Montenegro will need a similar line-up, probably Albania as well, and a weak Semi - Final to have an actual chance to make it.

If they do make it to the Final though, the Juries could award some points as well to secure a mid-table result for Montenegro.

If there is one entry with a huge MUST over its head this year, that is Montenegro that must qualify at all costs, otherwise this might be their last participation for some time and this is a shame after the National Final that they have organised this year.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

For the moment, Montenegro is in the Non-qualifiers list and I will need a minimum of three countries out of the Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Albania group to start considering them a contender for the qualification.

Televoting Potential: 4.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 2/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 26.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% or lower

Best case scenario:

Top-15 in the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi-Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 20-45

F: J: 40-80 - PV: 20-40 - Tot: 60-120

Tell me about yourself

Montenegro has the worst qualification record of all participating countries with just two in twelve attempts. It holds the current non qualification streak record with five, with the last presence in the Final dating back to 2015.

Poor results in Semi - Finals as well with most of their entries finishing in Bottom-3. 

Semi - Finals Public Votes Received (2016-2024)

'Amigos para siempre'...

Serbia 30 pts 3/3 - Slovenia 20 pts 3/3 - Croatia 6 pts 1/1

'We should go for a coffee never  sometime'...

Poland/Cyprus/Czechia/Georgia/San Marino 0 pts 0/4

Estonia/France/Greece/Malta 0 pts 0/3

Netherlands/Latvia/Portugal/UK/Germany/Israel 0 pts 0/2

It's the Juries, stupid!

 

In my previous post I addressed the 'Elephant in the Room' problem that Eurovision faces in the Public vote since '22 when the war broke in Ukraine. The problem became more intense last year with the addition of Israel's war as well.

I have also mentioned the recent trend with the last two Jury winners winning the Contest without winning the Public vote, something that has happened only once from 2009 to 2022 (Sweden '15).

This article will try to shed some light and explain if what happened in the previous two Eurovisions was a statistical anomaly or the new norm. This has been my focus so far this season when analysing the data from the split vote era ('16-'24). There are some interesting findings that I am sure that they will grab your attention. 

The easiest way to answer why we have two consecutive Jury winners that won Eurovision despite losing the Public vote is that we have had the Semi-Final rule change where the result is 100% determined by the public. As a result, the Final is stacked with more 'televote magnets' that have their Public vote scores diluted in the Final, while the strong Jury magnet entries are less and therefore it is easier for them to secure a great Jury score. 

This answer is partially valid, when we are looking at the Public vote side with many entries doing well in the Semi - Final but get lost in the Final, because there are stronger packages there (Austria '23, Moldova '23, Poland '23, Finland '24, Estonia '24). The competition is fierce and is very difficult for more than three or four entries to really stand out with the public, especially now that Ukraine and Israel are both taking big slices of the Public vote cake. 

 The second part of the answer is to assume that at the same time we have a smaller number of 'jury bait' entries that do get all the Jury points and that assumption is also partially correct. There is indeed one entry that is amassing the majority of 12s and 10s every year but no more than that.

In the last two editions there were 2 entries that scored 300+ points in the Jury vote (Sweden '23/ 340pts, Switzerland '24/ 365pts), and 2 entries that scored 200+ points (France '24/ 218pts, Croatia '24/ 210pts). At the same span there are 4 entries that scored 300+ points in the Public vote (Finland '23/ 376pts, Croatia '24/ 337pts, Israel '24/ 323pts, Ukraine '24/ 307pts), and 4 entries that scored 200+ points (Sweden '23/ 243pts, Norway '23/ 216pts, France '24/ 227pts, Switzerland '24/ 226pts).

It is rather impressive that the Public vote failed to crown a winner in four occasions which an entry scored 300+ points and the Jury vote managed to win 2/2 within the same threshold. Excluding Ukraine and Israel and their 'special Public vote circumstances', there are two entries from each side and Juries won both times, despite the fact that Finland in '23 got the highest single score (376pts vs 340pts).

  I had to dig deeper in numbers to draw more conclusions and decided to check the sets of 12 points the winners and runner-ups received in the split vote era plus the number of countries that received at least one set of 12 points. Regarding the number of countries receiving at least one set of 12 points, there is a similar trend that started with both constituencies in '22, and that is a significant reduction in the number of countries that are awarded with 12 points.

Between 2016-2021 the average number of countries receiving a set of 12 points was 14 for the Public vote and 14.6 for the Jury vote. The averages for the 2022-2024 period are 10 and 9.7 respectively! Suddenly, Juries and Public are awarding their top scores in less entries, leading to scores near or above the 350 points region. 

Furthermore, 5/6 entries in the Top 6 in sets of 12 points received within a constituency come from the last three editions as well.

28 - Ukraine '22 (PV)

22 - Switzerland '24 (JV)

18 - Finland '23 (PV), Portugal '17 (JV)

15 - Sweden '23 (JV), Israel '24 (PV)

There are 11 entries in total that have received 10 sets of 12 points or more in a constituency between 2016 and 2024 and 5 of them are the ones mentioned above, all sitting in the Top 6. But even these stats are not enough to draw a final conclusion on why Jury Winners have won Eurovision twice in a row.

My next step was to focus on the amount of sets of 12 points the Top 3 in the scoreboard (total results) has received with each constituency looking at the averages and medians and this when I had my eureka moment! 

Average number of 12 points sets with each constituency and totals the split vote era (2016-2024)

Winner - Jury Vote: 10.8 - Public Vote: 7.8 - Total: 18.6

2nd - Jury Vote: 5.6 - Public Vote: 6.1 - Total: 11.7

3rd - Jury Vote: 4.6 - Public Vote: 4.9 - Total: 9.5

My first reaction when I have seen the averages for the Eurovision winners was that the results of the last two years, have skewed the numbers in favor of the Juries so I have decided to check the median number as well and these are the results.

Median number of 12 points sets with each constituency and totals in the split vote era (2016-2024)

Winner - Jury Vote: 8.5 - Public Vote: 5.5 - Total: 16

2nd - Jury Vote: 6 - Public Vote: 4 - Total: 11.5

3rd - Jury Vote: 4.5 - Public Vote: 4.5 - Total: 9

The numbers between the two different metrics are not that far off and the Juries are still doing better than the Public. And then came the biggest surprise I have ever witnessed while doing Eurovision data analysis! Checking the individual sets of 12 points of all winners I realized that...

-There is a Eurovision Winner that has received 0 sets of 12 points in the Public Vote (Sweden '23).

- There is a Eurovision Winner that has received 1 set of 12 points in the Public Vote (Switzerland '24).

- There is a Eurovision Winner that has received 2 sets of 12 points in the Public Vote (Netherlands '19) but...

- There is no Eurovision Winner that has received less than 4 sets of 12 points in the Jury Vote!!! (Italy '21)

In fact, 5/8 times the Eurovision winner received more 12s from the Juries than the Public...

Ukraine '16 -  JV: 11 - PV: 6

Portugal '17 - JV: 18 - PV: 12

Netherlands '19 - JV: 6 - PV: 2

Sweden '23 - JV: 15 - PV: 0

Switzerland '24 - JV: 22 - PV:1

 The discrepancy between the two constituencies is pretty obvious, something that is not the case in the 3 occasions that the Eurovision winner had more 12s from the Public with the exception of Ukraine in 2022.

Israel '18 - JV: 5 - PV: 8

Italy '21 - JV: 4 - PV: 5

Ukraine '22 - JV: 5 - PV: 28

The fact that Ukraine in '16 finished 2nd with both constituencies, Portugal won them both in '17, and Israel '18, Netherlands '19 and Italy '21 all finished higher in Public vote than in Jury vote have kept the truth in the dark.

Juries have a 5-3 score in their favor among the 2nd places and the 3rd place has a 4-4 tie. There are 3 more entries that managed to receive only 1 set of 12pts from the Public vote and finished in Top 3 (UK '22 - 2nd, Switzerland '21- 3rd, Spain '22 - 3rd) when there is only 1 entry that finished in Top 3 receiving 0 sets of 12s in Jury vote (Moldova '17 - 3rd) and 1 more that received only 1 (Russia '19 - 3rd).

These findings made me understand that there is a misconception, even among the analysts myself included, regarding how powerful the Juries are. However, there still wasn't a definite answer why the Jury winners of the past two years won Eurovision.

The final piece of the puzzle was to check the average number of countries that voted the overall Top 3 in each constituency. And this was the part where everything became crystal clear...

Average number of countries that gave points in the split vote era (2016-2024)

Winner: Jury Vote: 31.8 / 39.1 - Public Vote: 38.8 / 39.4

2nd: Jury Vote: 31.9 / 39.1 - Public Vote: 38 / 39.4

3rd: Jury Vote: 27.2 / 39.1 - Public Vote: 33.1 / 39.4

All Eurovision Winners in the split vote era, were awarded Public vote points from almost every other country (310/315). Even the second place has a close to perfection record (305/315). 

5 Eurovision Winners got voted by all other countries in Public vote (Portugal '17, Netherlands '19, Italy '21, Ukraine '22, Sweden '23), 2 Eurovision winners were not voted only by 1 other country (Ukraine '16, Switzerland '24) and only Israel '18 was not voted by 3 countries.

There are also 5 entries that finished 2nd and were awarded points by all other countries in Public Vote! (Bulgaria '17, Cyprus '18, France '21, Finland '23, Croatia '24).

The number of Eurovision Winners that managed to receive points from all other countries in the Jury vote?...

1...Sweden in '23...

This is the crucial point! It is common to have a televote magnet that sometimes or most times will struggle with the Jurors. On the other hand, if a country has received Jury points from the vast majority of the countries, it will do the same with the Televote, regardless if they win or not. Sweden '23 failed to receive a single set of 12 points in Televote but finished 2nd there receiving points from all countries. Switzerland '24 received just a set of 12 points, it finished 5th with the Public vote but has received points from all but one country! The more sets of points a country receives, the bigger the chance they have to win Eurovision. 

There are only 3 occasions where the Eurovision Winner received less sets of points than the runner-up:

2016: Ukraine - Jury Vote: 24/41 - Public Vote: 40/41 - Total: 64/82

         Australia - Jury Vote: 38/41 - Public Vote: 37/41 - Total: 75/82

2021: Italy - Jury Vote: 28/38 - Public Vote: 38/38 - Total: 66/76

       France - Jury Vote: 33/38 - Public Vote: 38/38 - Total: 71/76

2022: Ukraine - Jury Vote: 26/39 - Public Vote: 39/39 - Total: 65/78

                   UK - Jury Vote: 35/39 - Public Vote: 34/39 - Total: 69/78

These three happen to be the only cases that a country won while receiving points from less than 30 countries in Jury vote as well. And the two of them happen to be Ukraine, land sliding the Public vote in 2022 that made their Jury performance irrelevant and receiving 11 sets of 12s from the 24 countries that gave them Jury points in 2016. This is the reason why I do consider both Ukrainian wins to be political. 

That leaves Eurovision 2021 as the only time that the Winner received points from less countries not only than the runner up but also than the third place. The fact that all three countries were neighbors (Italy, France, Switzerland) gave the upper hand in Italy that managed to win the Public vote.

This is the main reason behind Sweden's and Switzerland's win in the last two editions. Finland in '23 was voted by 22/36 countries in the Jury vote and Croatia 30/36 respectively. Both countries were far behind and the opponents' near perfect scores guaranteed that they would receive votes from all countries in Televote as well. 

There is a very small number of countries that received points from 33 countries or more in the Jury vote and failed to score points with more than 30 countries in the Public vote at the same time:

Austria '18 - Jury vote: 34/42 - Public vote: 18/42

Sweden '18 - Jury vote: 35/42 - Public vote: 7/42

In conclusion there is only one way to win Eurovision and that is to receive Public vote points from all or all but one countries and have a consensus between the two constituencies. 

The Juries might disagree with the Public, but if all Juries or almost all of them agree between them for an entry, then the Public will agree as well.

If an entry receives points from 34-35 countries in the Jury vote, expect the same to happen in the Public vote as well. And since this is the order with which the points are presented in the Final, I will have these numbers in mind when trying to calculate my winner.

Please do share your thoughts and keep the conversation going.