Bonsoir Europe!

 

A very long but interesting season is culminating today with the Eurovision Grand Final and I reckon that this will be a nerve wracking experience for the fans and those involved in the betting process. 

Not many thing have changed in the Top-3 in the odds with Sweden leading the race all the way since February, trading in the 1.9-2.2 region for most part of the last month.

Austria is the runner up since their song release watching Sweden from some distance at 3.6-4.5. 

These two have been the steady pillars on the top. Things were a bit shakier for the third favourite with Netherlands, Israel for a short term, and France swapping places

When the running order was revealed, France shortened from the 13-14.5 region and last night traded as low as 6. 

Finland settled in as the fourth favourite and Netherlands lost some ground and is closing the Top-5. 

This is the odds reality and has been stable and throughout the season. The market implied that we have a two horse race between Sweden and Austria that could maybe turn into a three horse race, with a clear favourite though, Sweden. 

If you are a regular reader of this blog and a regular listener of the Talk About Things ESC podcast, you know that I beg to differ and have been very vocal about it. 

I do believe that tonight will be a tight race between France and Sweden, with Netherlands looking from some distance ready to grab the opportunity if given one.

The reason why the market over-estimates Sweden and under-estimates France is that investors/bettors believe that the crowd pleaser/ televote magnet entry will win because of a high PV score (330-350) points and Juries will recognise its artistry and reward it with 200+ Jury points. 

The second narrative is that if the Jury winner wins Eurovision that is Austria. My objection with than angle is that the market has chosen the most "televote friendly" jury oriented entry with many red flags around it. 

Regarding the Public vote theory of Sweden getting 330-350 points, my point is that we have many televote magnets in the mix that will face a harsh dilution. 

Sweden, Estonia, Finland are all from the same region, Germany is relatively close and Israel was the Public vote winner in that region last year. Add to the mix the full Nordic/Baltic ensemble with Norway, Iceland, Denmark, Latvia and Lithuania and securing a top mark starts feeling a tough mission and not a walk in the park. Add the Albanian, Greek and Polish diaspora in the mix and the low tier PV magnets and you get the picture. Not all of these entries will manage to gather high scores everywhere and/or consistently. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with 10 or 11 entries over the 100 points threshold. 

Even the audience poll in the arena last night suggests a tight race between the favourites.

At the same time, the jury oriented entries group is much smaller and more solid with the likes of France, Switzerland, Austria and Netherlands being able to secure some high and mid scores consistently. Italy is always up there and Greece, Albania have a free pass to the high Jury scores in the Balkan region. Sweden will be recognised and will get some solid points, but not sure it is the type of entry that will reach the 200 points threshold. 

The big mystery here is Austria and how high it could fare with them. I do think that Austria will finish 3rd with the Juries in best case scenario and that leaves the road open to France.

Here is my analysis for tonight with the key points for each country.

1. France 

Estimated Points: 490-545 (Tv: 200-225 - Juries: 290-320)

France is the favourite and always was to win the Juries.

Numbers suggest that a country voted by at least 33 countries in Jury vote, will be voted by the same amount of countries in the Public vote, not getting the high scores but the solid 4s-8s that can secure the win.

EBU has made everything in their hand to accommodate the best possible result in the Public vote and the running order suggests that. 

If they have a lead of over 125 points in the Jury vote, then I can't see how Sweden can recover from there

Path for victory: 275+ Jury pts (ideally over 300) / 200-225 PV points

2. Sweden 

Estimated Points: 420-480 (Tv: 290-320 - Juries: 130-160)

Their odds lead is more fragile than people might think and their path goes through a sustainable Jury score of over 175 points (ideally 200). A Eurovision winner has never failed to get at least 4 sets of 12 points in the Jury vote and I struggle to see Sweden reaching that crucial number.

The metrics also suggest that Sweden will not be landsliding the Public vote either. Still in the mix for the win but they need to stay close to France in the Jury vote and hope for a France fall out in the Public vote.

Sweden has a ceiling around the 500 points mark, while France has more space to grow with the Juries.

Path for victory: 175+ Jury pts (ideally over 200) / 300-325 PV points

3. Netherlands 

Estimated Points: 375-425 (Tv: 150-175 - Juries: 225-250)

The one that lost some ground and is probably already out of contention but with some solid numbers that could secure a Top-3/5 result. 

The reason I do keep Netherlands over Austria is that Claude's charisma and the song have more appeal in both constituencies than Austria in my opinion. A safe option for a Top-5 result.

Path for victory: 275+ Jury pts / 200-225 PV points

4. Austria 

Estimated Points: 290-360 (Tv: 110-130 - Juries: 180-230)

If Austria win tonight then I will have to reconsider my whole approach towards Eurovision analysis, but I don't think this will be the case. The flaws are there from the beginning, a genre that is not everyone's cup of tea, a staging that is impressive but used as a showcase for Sergio Jaen's talent and a self-indulged performer that does not connect with the viewer and makes the song a vessel to highlight his vocal abilities.

The results in the Semi Finals (Belgium/Czechia/Cyprus NQs) are a proof that the audience is not responding to this type of entries even if the staging looks impressive. Finishing 3rd is the best case scenario for them but failing to finish in Top-5 is more probable. I have laid Austria in every single market this year and have no regrets or second thoughts about their chances.

Path for victory: 275-300+ Jury pts / 200-225 PV points

These are the four countries that still have a chance to win tonight, even a very slim one. There will be an interesting battle between a few countries for the last Top-5 spot and an exciting battle for the Top-10 race with another group of countries having a chance to be there.

5. Estonia 

Estimated Points: 310-345 (Tv: 270-300 - Juries: 35-45)

6. Israel  

Estimated Points: 285-330 (Tv: 225-250 - Juries: 60-80)

7. Switzerland

Estimated Points: 240-275 (Tv: 35-45 - Juries: 240-275)

8. Albania 

Estimated Points: 225-285 (Tv: 125-150 - Juries: 110-135)

9. Germany 

Estimated Points: 210-245 (Tv: 175-200 - Juries: 35-45)

10. Finland 

Estimated Points: 185-220 (Tv: 150-175 - Juries: 35-45)

11. Ukraine

Estimated Points: 170-210 (Tv: 120-140 - Juries: 50-70)

12. Greece

Estimated Points: 150-195 (Tv: 60-80 - Juries: 90-115)

13. Poland 

Estimated Points: 130-165 (Tv: 125-150 - Juries: 5-15)

14. Italy

Estimated Points: 110-140 (Tv: 30-40 - Juries: 80-100)

15. Lithuania 

Estimated Points: 90-115 (Tv: 50-65 - Juries: 40-50)

16. Portugal

Estimated Points: 60-75 (Tv: 20-25 - Juries: 40-50)

17. Malta 

Estimated Points: 55-75 (Tv: 30-40 - Juries: 25-35)

18. Luxembourg 

Estimated Points: 55-70 (Tv: 15-20 - Juries: 40-50)

19. Spain

Estimated Points: 50-70 (Tv: 30-40 - Juries: 20-30)

20. Norway 

Estimated Points: 45-65 (Tv: 35-45 - Juries: 10-20)

21. Denmark 

Estimated Points: 35-50 (Tv: 20-25 - Juries: 15-25)

22. Latvia 

Estimated Points: 35-50 (Tv: 5-10 - Juries: 30-40)

23. Armenia 

Estimated Points: 30-45 (Tv: 15-20 - Juries: 15-25)

24. San Marino 

Estimated Points: 30-45 (Tv: 30-40 - Juries: 0-5)

25. UK 

Estimated Points: 20-35 (Tv: 0-5 - Juries: 20-30)

26. Iceland 

Estimated Points: 20-30 (Tv: 15-20 - Juries: 5-10)

My positions

I have been a solid backer of the France - Netherlands duo, having a big position with both of them and some solid investments for both of them in the Top-3/5 markets (Top-3 Fra 2.76 / Neth 4.21, Top-4 Fra 2.5/Neth 2.91, Top-5 Neth 2.40)

These Top-3/5 investments could be enough to cover my whole investment in winner market without any trading in a case of a max red position (Austria/Finland/Estonia).

I do have a considerable bet for France to win the Juries @4 and my my other strong positions are Albania's Top-10 (2.26), Switzerland's Top-10 (2.36) and Germany for Top-15 (2.19) and Top-10 (5.17) and Greece's Top-10 (4.6) 

Landing two of these investments would generate a positive outcome despite having 0 returns in winner's market. 

Germany/Albania Top-5 (20.3 /8.2) would be the cherry on top. I have used some combo bets to cover Sweden, and would be open for some on play cover during the voting.

In the last place market I have a group of entries that could end-up there (Iceland @9.33, San Marino@26, Latvia@55, Luxembourg@36.4, Malta@64.5)

Betting Time

I had some good results this year with a few open bets whose outcome we will find tonight.

For Semi Final 1 I tipped

Estonia To Win SF-1 @ 9.2 x 20 units

Norway NQ @ 5.22 (lay 1.22) x 50 units

Slovenia Q @ 1.90 x 30 units

with Estonia still open 

For Semi Final 2 I tipped

Luxembourg to Finish in Top-3 @ 4.7 x 25 units (Exchange)

Czechia to Not Qualify @ 2.38 x 50 units (bet365)

Serbia/Armenia/Lithuania/Luxembourg Combo to Qualify @ 5.04 x 25 units

with Czechia securing a return of 119 units and Serbia costing me a great profit.

And now the big time. Like every year I have a 800 units investment available for the Final plus the 119 units from Semi - Final 2, making it a total of 919 units.

I have decided this year to keep it simple. Not many bets, but just a handful focused ones.

Grand Final Tips

France to Win @7 x 319 units (Betfair Exchange)

Netherlands to Finish in Top-5 @2.54 x 200 units (Betfair Exchange)

Winner Without Sweden to be France@ 3.05 x 200 units (Betfair Exchange)

Albania to Finish in Top-5 @ 3.50 x 200 units (Betfair Exchange)

Good luck with your investments tonight and I wish you had fun reading these posts and listening our podcast episodes.

 

For Those looking for more info, I do recommend this post I published yesterday about the voting patterns in the Jury vote.

Know your numbers - Eurovision '25 Edition

 

The time when the real Eurovision begins is here! The running order has been revealed, with some 'winners' (France, Sweden, Netherlands, Austria, Albania) and 'losers' there (Estonia, Israel)

The dust, or maybe cork?, has not settled yet but no matter who wins tomorrow night, we are heading to a very tight race and not many people have realised that yet. 

The market definitely hasn't, otherwise the odds for the quartet leading the odds, would have been closer to each other.

My analysis will try to shed some light regarding how countries are performing when voting for the Jury vote.

I have collected their Top-3 marks and tried to locate the ones that are more accurate at rewarding the high scores to the Winners and Top-3 finishers.

I will focus on the Jury voting only because it could be proved useful during the voting tomorrow night.

Before start digging in the numbers, I need to highlight that there are many fallacies and stereotypes out there regarding how the countries vote and my findings prove that. Countries tend to give their 12s in a vast array of countries and not always follow the neighbour/ally approach. Of course there are a few countries that still do that and vote locally but not in the extent you could expect them to. 

I will give you a classic example to demonstrate my point Greece and Cyprus have given their Jury 12s to 5 different countries each in that 8 year span! And yes, sometimes one of them was not in the Final but I bet that if I had asked the question in a poll, people would reply 2 or 3 in best case scenario.

Let's dive!

The 8/8 (7/7) Jury Club

This is the list of countries that have awarded their set of 12 Jury points in 8 or 7 different countries, voting for a different country anytime! The exclusive members of this club are:

8/8 Austria, Georgia, Italy, Norway, Serbia, Sweden

7/7 Portugal, Ukraine

All these countries are awarding their 12 in a different country every year!

The 'We like diversity 7/8 for our Jury Winner' Club

7/8 Australia, Belgium, Iceland, Israel, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, San Marino, Spain, Switzerland

This is the most popular group of all and the two groups combined together make up for the 19/37 countries competing. Juries like diversity!

The 'We might have a special friend' (75%Club)

6/8 Albania, Azerbaijan, Croatia, France, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, Moldova, Slovenia, UK, Armenia (5/7)

And this is where some of the usual suspects start to show up, but we are still talking about 5 or 6 different countries selected for the set of 12.

30/37 countries have awarder their set of 12 points at least in 6 different countries for the Jury vote.

The 'Look, we have a special someone and don't want to cheat on them' Club

5/8 Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Greece, Montenegro (3/5) 

Greece and Cyprus yes but there is a worse couple you did not expect to see down there...

The 'We are taken'  or the 'We are the Sweden's groupies' Club

4/8 Estonia

3/8 Finland

You mentioned diversity so far, but what about accuracy?

And this part of my analysis could be used as a guide for when the voting is happening to check for some signs. There isn't a country that hands their Jury 12pts consistently to the Jury Winner. 

In fact there are only 8 countries that have a 50% or slightly better record on accuracy and the champions on this list will surprise you.

This is where the biased/friends/allies factors kick in and makes the results a bit more predictable, with countries voting for different countries but these countries usually are neighbours or allies and Surprise, surprise the Public vote has a better percent of accuracy when awarding their 12 points!

Let's check who are the best performers in handing their set of 12s to the Jury Winner.

The 50+% Club

5/8 Albania, Lithuania

4/7 Austria, UK

4/8 Estonia, Israel, Netherlands

3/6 Switzerland

There is no point of adding the mid of the table predictors, but there is a point of adding the list of countries that fail to award the top mark to the Jury Winner.

The 'I have no idea what my Jury is doing' Club

0/8 Australia!!!

0/5 Montenegro

1/8 Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Norway, San Marino

1/7 Armenia

1/6 Portugal

Australia, a country that has been heavily backed by Juries throughout the years to achieve great or good results, has failed to the day to award the Jury Winner their 12 points!

Things are getting better when instead of checking for the sets of 12 points for the Jury Winner, we check for Top-3 rankings. The percentage of accuracy there is way better and this is the list I will have in mind during the voting. Checking particular countries' Top-3 jury ranks to identify Jury contenders. 

This is the list where you want to see Sweden, Austria, France and Netherlands performing and will be the indicator/decisive factor of their performance

Including the Jury Winner in our Top-3 result every year aka the 'We know our Job' Club

7/7 Austria and UK

The only countries that have included the Jury winner in their Top-3 every time! I bet you did not expect UK to be up there! It will be interesting to see if Austria will vote tactically, now that is among the favourites.

The 'We are consistent at including the Jury Winner in our Top-3' Club

7/8 Belgium, Denmark, Lithuania

This little group here is the one I am looking forward the most to check how they will vote. I have my spreadsheet ready already.

6/8 Albania, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Israel, Latvia, Norway, Poland, Spain

5/7 Sweden, Ukraine

The 'Who cares about objective criteria? We know better' Club

0/5 Montenegro

The only country that has not yet included the Jury Winner in their Top-3 results! If a country is in that list, is doomed!

1/8 Greece 

Awarding Cyprus year after year is one thing, failing to include the Jury Winner in your Top-3 is another! And Greece is very consistent there as well. The only country that makes that Top-3 and is not doomed is Albania!

2/8 Australia, France

We talked about Australia already, and now it is France's turn! France has regularly been a contender in for the Jury win and has consistently voted strategically by blanking or marking down the other contenders. Portugal, Greece or Luxembourg taking France's Jury 12 incoming...

I do have a feeling that tomorrow night we will be watching the most interesting Jury voting for some time and I expect a very tight race for the overall winner. But more about that in tomorrow's post...

Kiss Kiss and Goodbye!

 One of the most open and unpredictable  Semi - Finals since the 2nd Semi back in 2018 will taka place tonight and get ready for a bumpy ride, especially if your favourite/country is in that Semi.

With the exception of Georgia and Montenegro, every other country is in the mix for qualification and does have a chance to make it to the Final. 

I do not remember a Semi - Final where only 3 or 4 countries were considered safe/certain qualifiers.

Not many things changed compared to the Power Rankings from last week with a notable exception. 

So let's take it away!

1. Israel

The elephant is still in the room and, until further notice, their Public vote appeal should be taken seriously. A beautiful song that could be a Top-10 entry any other year, now is elevated in a Top-5 contender. 

A RAI leak is not expected this year so I am playing safe here. To win the Semi - Final @1.86 has no value (last year was trading @20-30). If you think that their televote appeal has faded, a lay would be the right call. A no call for me.

Projected points: 140-160

2. Finland

The pimp slot, the epic staging and Erika Vikman's performance are the perfect combo for a great result in a Public vote only environment. 

They do have a chance for the Semi - Final win currently @ 3.15 that could create some momentum for the Final. Fair price.

Projected points: 130-150

3. Austria

Not sold in that entry and I do believe that is way more vulnerable as a favourite than people might think. Black and white is not working in my opinion, giving to the performance a forced feeling of making art for art's sake. I'm not impressed with JJ's voice despite being an opera singer and the lack of charisma is evident. 

This is the make or break moment for Austria's chances to contend and I am not very confident for their chances. To Finish in Top-3 in the Semi Final is currently trading @1.64 (2.56 to Not finish Top-3) and I do have a strong position built the last month @3.75 plus a fun bet at stoiximan (for those betting in Greece and Cyprus ) for Austria not to finish in Top-5 in Semi @7.

Projected points: 100-120

4. Luxembourg

Luxembourg is creating a school of entries that do the basics very well, go under the radar for the whole season and then they turn up when it matters. Laura Thorn owns the stage and Luxembourg does have a chance to sneak in the Top-3 of the Semi, currently @4.7 has a decent value. It is added in my book, the same with a fun bet to win the Semi @ 361 👀 now @60.

Projected points: 100-120

5. Australia

The other 'winner' of the rehearsals, solidifying its candidacy for a Top-10 spot in the Final. Fun but also credible, traditionally supported by the Juries, Australia could do very well with both constituencies.

Almost certain qualifier but there is no value in these odds. 

 Projected points: 80-100

6. Lithuania

I had Lithuania a bit higher last week. It is one of my favourite entries of the year. It is oozing quality but could be perceived as too dark for Eurovision. Lithuania has enough friends in the Semi to sail to the Final, but crazier things have happened and for that reason I leave Lithuania alone for the moment.

Projected points: 70-90

7. Malta

The roller coaster with Malta through the season continues. Going all in with the kitch/trash presentation might have been a step too further and could risk their qualifying chances because it is Malta that has traditionally suffered with the public. To qualify @1.23 feels very short and there is value in opposing it.

Projected points: 50-80

8. Armenia

The combination of its staging in a very friendly Semi and the running order, after a bunch of meh entries, is ideal to secure the qualification @2 and was around the 2.5 mark just yesterday. 

The current price is fair but I have it in my book @2.45. 

Projected points: 45-65

9.  Greece

Greece is still borderline but they have done their best to give themselves a chance. I still believe that it will need the diaspora the make the cut and still unsure if they will show up. I have a considerable position in the NQ and I might consider do some trading during the show. 

The Q is currently @ 1.36 implying that there is still a chance to miss the Final. If traders smell blood there this could become tricky. Klavdia has been strong vocally yesterday.

Projected points: 40-60

10. Serbia

Serbia loves to send entries that will always be the definition of borderline usually finishing 8th-10th. Serbia has done everything in their hand to increase their chances but they will need once again the diaspora and their friends.

Projected points: 40-60

11. Ireland

Still in the mix for qualification but this is a very bizarre entry and I fail to see who will actually pick the phone and vote for this one. The early draw does not help either. I have a small position on its Non qualification but there is no value in its current odds so I will just leave alone, unless the Irish show up on live and then lay becomes a value bet...One to watch during the show...

Projected points: 30-50

12. Latvia

Another entry that has a decent chance and is still in the mix for qualification thanks to the stunning vocals, the aerial/out of this planet staging and its authenticity. 

However, there is no value in its current price. Early draw a disadvantage as well.

Projected points: 25-45

13. Denmark

5 years, 5 Non qualifications and the streak will continue. An underwhelming national final staging that is barely changed for Eurovision and coming after France does not help at all. 

Not real value in non-qualification but could be used in combos with other NQs to boost your odds...

Projected points: 20-40

14. Czechia

And here we are! I have laid Czechia as low as 1.15 at one point and been laying throughout the last month. All metrics point to its non-qualification and after Belgium's result on Tuesday and Belgium's result with Mustii last year, we do have a pattern now with songs being snubbed by the public when the song/artist is very self-indulged making the song about them and not the other way around. 

This is my biggest position for tonight and one of the biggest positions I have ever had in a Semi Final. The NQ is still @2.38 in bet365.

Projected points: 15-35

15. Montenegro

Projected points: 15-30

16. Georgia

Projected points: 10-20

Betting Time

Semi Final 1 was a mixed bag getting 7/10 correct qualifiers and hit and missed my 2/3 bets. Norway was always a longer shot but I am gutted for Slovenia that I have read wrong. 

However there is still an open bet with Estonia to win Semi 1 @9.2 that could be enough to secure a good profit.

100 more units to spend tonight, 800 left for the Final. There are many options for tonight and I had opted for the riskier road which always offers better values.

Luxembourg to Finish in Top-3 @ 4.7 x 25 units (Exchange)

Czechia to Not Qualify @ 2.38 x 50 units (bet365)

Serbia/Armenia/Lithuania/Luxembourg Combo to Qualify @ 5.04 x 25 units

Good luck with your bets tonight! 

Don't forget to listen to the 12th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos where we talk about the aftermath of Semi Final 1 and share some thoughts about tonight.

You can find the episode here

Photo: Corinne Cumming

Strobe in, Lighter out

 

The time has come to decide for my 10 finalists from Semi - Final 1. Like every year, reality/casuals/tangible info have kicked in and odds are different compared to last week.

There were a few tweaks compared to the Power Rankings from last week, with Belgium being the most important one. I am happy to own my mistakes/miscalculations and admit that Belgium has a solid Q entry, not sure about the mad price in the Winner's market.

The other change of mind since last week is switching Azerbaijan with Iceland now making the Top-10 cut. Azerbaijan failed to show up for a third year in a row and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish last in Semi - Final.

All in all a decent Semi - Final with 9 countries that I consider safe and then a group of 3 fighting for the last ticket.

So let's start digging!

1. Estonia

Oooops! I have a typo or maybe not. I think that Estonia will shine tonight with the casuals watching/hearing this for the first time. It could finish 2nd or 3rd for sure, but winning the Semi - Final sometimes is easier because of its size and special circumstances that always leave some space for some out of the blue results. Last year Armenia finished 3rd over Switzerland to get the picture. Israel and Netherlands in the same Semi were close to each other as well so having a country @1.23 and the other @9.2 does not make much sense and the value is obviously at the latter so Estonia @9.2 it is!

Projected points: 150-170

2. Sweden 

The big favourite. Great entry, lots of fun there! Will be a solid Top-2 Public vote entry in the Final but I do think the expectations have been a bit higher. It does a have a ceiling in the Public vote and the sky is not the limit. Could very well win tonight but their odds pose no value.

This is the time to check if their charting and views will continue in the post-Melfest trajectory. 

Projected points: 145-165

3. Netherlands

Nothing has changed from my prediction last week but this entry went through hell and fire the past week in social media and various markets, until last night that we saw the whole three minutes and all suspicions disappeared.

Claude is hands down the most charismatic performer in the '25 line-up and Netherlands are getting ready to launch in contender's trajectory. 

Top-3 in Semi - Final is currently @1.83 in the Exchange, I got matched @3s the previous days and obviously there is no value there now. 

One to watch for the after SF metrics.

Projected points: 120-140

4. Albania

My favourite entry of the year! They are in for a great result and expect big things from them, but the reaction was not the expected one. In Top-10 trajectory for the Final for sure but we need to wait for after tonight to see if it also clicks with the casuals like Shum did after its Semi - Final. 

Currently trading @2.2 for the Top-3 and it does have a decent chance to finish there but there is no value in that price. I do have it @2.75 in my book having a decent return hedging between Albania and Netherlands @2.75 and 3+. 

Projected points: 110-135

5. Poland

Give me a big name and some crazy visuals and diaspora will provide for you! Justyna has been shaky vocally yesterday but who cares! Juries hate Poland either way so why not go all in with the visuals to milk the Public vote? If Blanka managed to finish 3rd in the Semi - Final in '23 why not Justyna in the Top-5? 

Ps: for those having access to stoiximan in Greece and Cyprus, Poland to finish in the Sf-5 Top is trading at 3.75. ( I have topped up at that price after my initial position at 4.5)

Projected points: 80-110

6. Ukraine

The elephant in the room. You cannot under estimate their Public vote appeal and you have to consider them a powerhouse. I am not touching Ukraine in any market this year, at least not before Saturday.

That said...

Projected points: 70-90

7. Cyprus

An entry that was created for stage. A bit generic without a meaning? Yes, but the show is there and the pimp slot will do the rest. 

Sailing to the Final but not sure what and if it will  have any impact.

Projected points: 60-80

8. Slovenia

Happy for this one as it was clear from its National Final that this is an entry that will do well and not the fans' cup of tea. A sentimental entry that will touch many chords with Klemen and his wife on stage. 

My position is @2.67 and it's currently trading @1.90. Still value there now that we have seen the songs.

Projected points: 50-70

9. Belgium

The biggest improvement of the Semi -Final. Sailing to the Final as well with some impressive choreo, however it is not the masterpiece that many thing it is. It will get a boost from the Juries in the Final as well but there is too much competition for these PV points.

 Projected points: 50-70

10. Iceland

I had them 11th in my Power Rankings projection but I do think that they win the battle with Norway for the last ticket. Pure fun, lots of energy and an impressive Minecraft inspired staging will be enough for them to qualify. Currently trading @2.42...

Not a certain qualifier mostly because of the running order but we have seen crazier things happening. 

Projected points: 40-60

11. Norway

I had Norway's NQ in my book since its LEP appearance and never looked back. It can still qualify but trading as low as 1.15 and currently @1.22 is the value bet of this Semi. This is my biggest position with Slovenia and winning just one of these two bets will be enough for some decent returns tonight.

Projected points: 30-50

12. San Marino

It has been better than expected and I will not be surprised if they finally make the cut for the Final but this is more of an arena entry and the rooting for a different country in your song still feels funny. 

Still not sure where they will find the 50 points they will need...

Projected points: 25-45

Not much to comment for the remaining three entries that could potentially finish higher than the Bottom-3 but not anywhere near the qualification threshold.

13. Portugal

Projected points: 15-35

14. Croatia

Projected points: 10-30

15. Azerbaijan 

Projected points: 10-25

Betting Time

Like every yearI have 1000 units to invest, split in 100 units per Semi - Final and 800 units for the Final. The settled units from Semis could be used again in Semi 2 and/or Final. 

So my 100 units for Semi Final 1 will go to

Estonia To Win SF-1 @ 9.2 x 20 units

Norway NQ @ 5.22 (lay 1.22) x 50 units

Slovenia Q @ 1.90 x 30 units

Good luck to your bets and favourites tonight! Stay tuned tomorrow for a new episode of Talk About ESC/Things podcast with the SF-1 aftermath!

Talk About all Things podcast Prediction Project - Part 2 (Public Vote)

 

Yesterday I posted the first part of the Talk About ESC Prediction Project that was dedicated to the Jury vote and you can find here.

This post will be about the Prediction of the Public vote.

For those who have not read the previous post, a quick reminder of the parameters we have set to the panellists and the list with the 16 members that have been selected to be part of the project. I would like to thank them all once again.

We have formed a panel of 16 Eurovision analysts/experts from various parts of Europe and Australia and gave them some very simple instructions:

Please prepare 2 separate rankings of the following countries - one would be your Grand Final Public Vote prediction and the other your Grand Final Jury Vote prediction: Israel, Ukraine, Estonia, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Sweden, Norway, Australia, Finland, UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, France, Italy, Czechia, Poland, Malta, Greece, Cyprus, Slovenia, Serbia, Albania (26) * As you can see, we will only be ranking countries that have an objectively realistic chance of a left hand side finish with at least one of the two constituencies in the final - no point in ranking every single one of them. * Individual responses/rankings will not be posted.

We are NOT voting as jurors. We are NOT voting based on personal taste/preference. We ARE trying to PREDICT how the jury and televote will vote in May. * We will only present the final totals - one for Grand Final Public Vote prediction and one for Grand Final Jury Vote prediction.

The 16 members of the panel are:

Alex Panayi (Cyprus) Davide Maistrello

@ge_aldrig_upp

(Italy)

@euro_bruno

(Portugal)

@CDbjerg

(Denmark)

@GertJanWaterink

(Netherlands)

@SchlagerKaty

(Slovenia)

@VVeedla

(Estonia/Indonesia)

@EuroOzdale

from

@aussievisionnet

(Australia)

@eurovisionbets

(Greece)

@mat_rickard

(UK)

@Panos_Zannettos

(Cyprus) Shae

@shi_fs

(Israel) Rob Furber from

@EntertainOdds

(UK) Steef Van Gorkum from

@escdaily

(Netherlands)

@EurovisionTom

(Ireland)

@escbetting

(Greece)

To calculate the results, we have added the rankings from 1-26 of all members of the panel, but I have also analysed their responses splitting them in two sub-groups:

a. The professional bettors/analysts that are actively involved in the betting aspect of Eurovision with 7 members (Matt Rickard, Panos Zannettos, Rob Furber, CDbjerg, Villu Veedla, Escbetting and myself).

b. The Eurovision experts (bloggers, content creators, former Eurovision participant, analysts not involved in betting) with 9 members.

The reason for dividing the panel is to check for discrepancies between the two groups and to verify if some entries have more gravitas with an individual group. For clarity, I will call the first group from now on Analysts and the second group Experts.

The honourable non mentions aka the first discrepancy between the two constituencies and the fallen fans' favourites

While in the Jury prediction 24/26 countries got at least one Top-10 mention, in the Public vote there were 7 countries that have received 0 with some names that will raise a few eyebrows between them...Grab your popcorn:

Azerbaijan, Serbia, Slovenia, UK, Luxembourg...(so far so good), Italy and Belgium! At the request of the survivors, the top marks have not been disclosed...😊

Unlike the Jury vote where 4 countries received only one Top-10 rating, there was only one country that had a single mention in the Public vote and that is Switzerland!

There is a second group of 5 countries that have received just 2/16 Top-10 ratings and a few more eyebrows will be raised here as well...

Cyprus, Greece, Lithuania (in line with the online polls and expectations so far), Czechia (9th and 10th) and Norway (2 x 10th)!

Both Czechia and Norway had 0/7 mentions from the Analysts' subgroup...

If there was a point system in place, these two would be finishing lower than any other country that got at least one Top-10 mention.

PS: Switzerland's only Top-10 rating was 6th.

The not great, not terrible just in the middle of the road entries

Poland, Malta and Australia are the entries that barely missed the Top-10 managing to receive between 3/16 and 7/16 mentions.

Poland got all 3 mentions from the Experts' sub-group while the other two were consistent with both but not catching fire.

The one category by itself country

In theory Germany, that managed to sneak in the Top-10 of the Public vote, belongs to the group of countries that were mentioned above (6/16 mentions).

The reason I have created a special mention to them is the fact that this is the country with the biggest discrepancy between the two subgroups!

5/7 Analysts have included Germany in their Top-10 prediction (all having them 7th-10th) and only 1/9 Expert that rated it 3rd! 

Is this a hint that Germany can/will do better with casuals and the Analysts were able to recognise the potential ahead of the market? I do reckon yes. 

Ps: Of all countries that were mentioned so far ranking from 26th to 10th, only Germany managed to get a Top-3 mention so far.

The lower Top-10 entries aka the ones that most of the members of the project agreed on but did not rate them high enough aka Austria/Finland what are you doing here?

Albania (9th-10/16), Finland (8th- 13/16), Austria (7th- 11/16)  form a group of countries that feels like an isolated island. Miles ahead of the countries before them in terms of Top-10 mentions but also way behind the countries that form the Top-6. 

At last two of them have received a Top-2 mention, the first countries so far that made it that high, and the same countries also received a Top-3 mention.

A fun fact, the countries I am talking about are Albania and Finland, with Austria failing to crack the Top-3 with any member of the Project!

Albania had a balanced 5/7 Analysts - 5/9 Experts split Top-10 mentions, doing slightly better with the Analysts. They have been consistent with both constituencies and both subgroups suggesting that the Top-10 result is within reach for them.

Finland has been consistent as well receiving 6/7 Analysts' mentions and 7/9 Experts'. The main issue for them is that 4/13 mentions have them 10th and 8/13 in total were in the 8th-10th region, not a good sign for an entry that was 2nd favourite to win the Contest based on their Public vote score a few months ago.

Austria is the only country in the Public vote Top-10 that failed to get a Top-3 mention and the only country in Top-8 that was mentioned by less than 13 members in their Top-10 (11/16). 

Their split was 4/7 Analysts and 7/9 Experts. I know that many will comment that me personally and the Talk About Things as whole have been very vocal against the Austrian odds and chances but I can state that we were not us three the ones that blanked Austria. Some of us did but we were not the only ones. There is only one Top-5 mention coming from the Analysts and 4 from the Experts.

X might think that I have a personal vendetta against Austria but the fact is that I am just sceptical of their chances to contend, because of all these red flags/flaws in their metrics that suggest that Austria is a polarised entry that could/would be ignored by the public that has other/better options to vote for.

Voted by the great majority but far far away from the Top-4

Netherlands (6th - 13/16) and Ukraine (5th - 16/16) form a Tier-3 by themselves. Netherlands has a balanced 6/7 - 7/9 split of Top-10 mentions and was ranked 4 times in the medal zone (0-1-3). 

Ukraine on the other hand was rated Top-10 by all members of the project but most of the rankings are in the 5th-8th zone. Ukraine's PV is still a big puzzle for the analysts and all of them have chosen to play it safe and include Ukraine up there.

And now the time for the Top-4 numbers has come

4. France 

Top-10 mentions: 16/16 (7/7 Analysts - 9/9 Experts)

Winner mentions: 0/16

Runner up mentions: 0/16

Top-3 mentions: 2/16 (2 Experts)

France managed to secure a Top-10 mention from all members and 13/16 mentions are within the 3rd-6th range, exactly the marks that France will be aiming for in the Public vote.

Comparing France's Public vote performance and Sweden's Jury performance, both countries finished 4th and average wise France got a slight advantage thanks to Sweden's blank by an Expert.

The prediction implies that France is a secure Top-4 entry in the Public vote that could go lower only if the Ukrainian diaspora shows up in huge numbers. The Public vote 4th place in the 50/50 era ('16-'24) has an average of 205.5 points in a 37 countries line-up and a median score of 213 points.

The 4th place in Jury vote for the same era and country line-up has an average of 166 points and a median score of 169 points for those who would like to compare the France - Sweden numbers in their weak side.

3. Estonia

Top-10 mentions: 16/16 (7/7 Analysts - 9/9 Experts)

Winner mentions: 2/16 (1-1)

Runner up mentions: 5/16 (3 Analysts - 2 Experts)

Top-3 mentions: 4/16 (2 - 2)

Estonia is expected to do great in the Public vote and their potential was acknowledged by the panellists with 11/16 ranking them in their Top-3.

Their lowest rank was 8th and there were a couple of 7th ranks, leaving some space for a mixed feelings result and these scores are the ones that made the difference between finishing 3rd or 2nd.

2. Israel

Top-10 mentions: 16/16 (7/7 Analysts - 9/9 Experts)

Winner mentions: 2/16 (1-1)

Runner up mentions: 6/16 (2 Analysts - 4 Experts)

Top-3 mentions: 1/16 (Expert)

The battle between Israel and Estonia for the 2nd place had Israel as the winner, however, in the Analysts' subgroup Estonia finished 2nd slightly ahead.

Is Israel's superiority a late reaction to last year's results, expecting a similar score? Probably. Analysts tend to agree or at least lean to that direction while the Experts are more decisive giving Israel a comfortable lead in 2nd place.

1. Sweden

Top-10 mentions: 16/16 (7/7 Analysts - 9/9 Experts)

Winner mentions: 12/16 (5 Analysts - 7 Experts)

Runner up mentions: 2/16 (2 Analysts)

Top-3 mentions: 2/16 (2 Experts)

And the winner is hands down Sweden with all 16 mentions being a Top-3 result. The average Public vote winner score in the 50/50 era ('16-'24) in a 37 country line - up is 331.5 points, the same with the median (thank you Ukraine '22). To add some context, the Jury vote winner average score is 286.3 points and the median score is 271 points.

It remains to be seen how high the Swedish score will be and if Estonia and Israel could pose a threat for them.

If there was a medal ceremony for the rankings the results would be like this

1. Sweden 12-2-2

2. Israel 2-6-1

3. Estonia 2-5-4

4. Netherlands 0-1-3

5. Albania/Finland 0-1-1

7. France 0-0-2

8. Germany 0-0-1

The Talk About all Things ESC team's Public vote results

There are a few discrepancies between the overall and our results that are worth mentioning.

The first one is Estonia ranked 2nd and Israel 4th. Is it because we overrate Estonia or underrate Israel's public appeal or both? Could be but we are more confident in Estonia's potential in line with the other Analysts' forecast.

We have been the stronger Netherlands' supporters and still believe that Netherlands has the potential to appeal to the casuals.

Even though we are avid supporters of France's chances to be a contender, we have them a place lower than the Projection .

We are more optimistic about Albania and Germany and a bit underwhelmed about Finland's chances to do well in the Public vote.

Austria barely missed the Top-10.

Share your thoughts and objections in the comments area and tomorrow there will be some numbers (not points) trying to shed more light to the potential winner of Eurovision 2025.