Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Switzerland

 

Voyage - Zoë Më

Switzerland has finally made it but the recipe for success has not changed. They have focused on carving a path for victory through the Juries, having won the vote twice ('21, '24) and they are not looking back.

'Voyage' is their fifth consecutive entry that will be focusing in getting the most out of that constituency. It is a beautiful ballad that with an ethereal staging could be as high as Top-3/5. For the moment I do believe that the Top-10 there is secured.

The Public vote is a different story though. Switzerland got lucky with their draw and they will be performing at #19 which could boost their televote score a bit. The problem is that this type of entries usually score in the 0-25 points region and Switzerland will be suffering from the 'Host syndrome' as well. 

 Zoë is an excellent vocalist and that could help Switzerland's cause. If they manage to secure that Top-5 spot with the Juries, then they could finish in the overall Top-10 even with 0 Public vote points which feels very harsh though. 

Either way, Switzerland got what they deserved last year and any result in Eurovision '25 will not matter. 

However, they should be in the Top-10 this year as well and they do have a decent chance succeeding

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Switzerland finishing in Top-5 with the Juries and get 15-20 Public vote points that secures them the 10th place

Televoting Potential: 4/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 8.5/10

Total: 35.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.2% - 0.5%

Best case scenario:

6th-8th

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 125-250 - PV: 20-50 - Tot: 145-300

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Switzerland a solid Jury vote Top-5?

You can hear my thoughts about Swityerland in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Germany

 

Baller - Abor & Tynna

An anti-climactic and super complicated national final that ended with the Germans opting for the most German entry of all.

'Baller' is the type of song that Germany should be sending to Eurovision more often, highlighting their clubbing/alternative music culture that could be their trademark and would be acknowledged both by jurors and the public.

This is an entry that could land anywhere and will rely on creating some hype during the Eurovision week to boost their chances. It will need  a different staging from the one they presented in the national final to avoid being blanked/downvoted by the Juries.

The make it or break it factor for Germany will be their public appeal. They do have an entry that deserves to be in the Public vote Top-10. Tynna has lots of charisma and the duo oozes authenticity which is highly appreciated and rewarded lately.

On the other hand, I would not be surprised if they fail to create some buzz and finish 22nd, but if I had to choose any of the two scenarios, I would be more confident for a Top-10 result. 

With a good running order in the Final and a great staging they could be the breath of fresh air and could fill in the gap between the televote magnets and the jury oriented entries. 

Germany might be the pleasant surprise of this year!

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Germany getting a mid-table result with the Juries and a Top-10 result with the Public vote to make it in the overall Top-10, finishing 8th-9th.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 36.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.3%

Best case scenario:

Top-5

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 20-75 - PV: 75-125 - Tot: 95-200

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Will Juries crash the German hopes for a Top-10 result? Could the Public vote be enough to secure it?

You can hear my thoughts about Germany in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Azerbaijan

 

Run With U - Mamagama

Has the time to end the non-qualification streak come? Azerbaijan is finally sending a competitive entry that might have some appeal to the Public vote.

'Run With U' is an up-tempo entry with some traditional elements that if performed/staged adequately could secure a spot in the Final.

The structural problem that the Azeri NQ entries had was that they were missing a call for action/they were very in the middle of the road. We might have a similar situation this year as well, but the good news for Azerbaijan is that they have their chance to showcase their quality on stage on a head to head battle versus Belgium, performing before them, and San Marino that is performing after them. If they can steal some of the spark of the other two entries, the ticket is theirs.

They are still a borderline entry but now leaning towards the qualification. If they make it to the Final, I do not expect anything ground-breaking but they could secure a mid-table score with the Juries to avoid finishing in the Bottom-5. 

The good news for them is that after 2 non-competitive years they have shown some signs of life in Eurovision.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Azerbaijan qualifying to the Final finishing 9th-10th and then grab 30-40 Jury points from friends and a few Public vote points from some neighbours to finish 19th-21st.

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 34.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Qualification for the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-55

F: J: 25-50 - PV: 15-40 - Tot: 40-90

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Azerbaijan hopeless for qualification or have we jumped the gun too fast?

You can hear my thoughts about Azerbaijan in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Netherlands

 

C'est La Vie - Claude

Netherlands is back! And is aiming for the top!

After last year's drama, AVROTROS opted to go back to the recipe that has brought them the win back in '19 and a 2nd place in '14. 

Claude is a charismatic performer, I dare to say the most charismatic of the '25 class and will bring on stage his personal story sending a message of hope and faith.

'C'est La Vie' is a very smart entry, aiming to keep it simple but impactful. They have solved the French language barrier by using simple wording that is understood even by the non-French speakers, something that France did as well with Voila'. 

The aim of the entry is to tick the correct Jury boxes and get a solid start finishing Top-2/3 with them and then try to get some momentum going with the Public vote.

I do believe that the Jury part is a lock for them, hence my enthusiasm and support in Winner's market and I do feel confident that the song will click with the viewers as well.

Netherlands is what I consider a 'low-maintenance' contender, that does not need to win or landslide any of the two constituencies but just needs to be Top-2/4 with them to be in the game till the very end. 

This is the main reason that I do have Netherlands in my Tier 1 entries. I could see them score 250-275 points with the Juries and a slightly smaller score with the Public vote, something like 200-225. 

My data suggest that the entries which get points from the vast majority of countries in the Jury vote, and Netherlands does fit that description, also get voted in Public vote and this is the recipe for a great result. 

Switzerland and France last year finished 5th and 4th in Public vote, scoring 220-221 points but both were voted by all countries in the Televote! 

For all these reasons, I do consider Netherlands a secure Top-4 entry that has the potential to surprise us and win the Contest.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Netherlands finishing in Top-2 in the Jury vote near the 300 points threshold and in Top-5 with the Public vote and reach the magic 500 points number that could land them the victory.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 9.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 43.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

5% - 12.5%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

Top-6

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 80-120

F: J: 225-300 - PV: 150-225 - Tot: 425 - 525

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Netherlands a contender or a Public vote flop?

You can hear my thoughts about Netherlands in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Armenia

 

Survivor - Parg

One of the most anticlimactic national finals of the season where a very average entry won because of the total lack of any competition happened in Armenia.

'Survivor' feels like a Melfest reject from 10-15 years ago forgotten in G:son's old laptop that Armenia decided to buy on a clearance sale...

The song is lacking purpose, a call for action and melody and merit wise should not make the cut for the Final.

But...this is Armenia in the Semi - Final with the most friends/allies included and they start their campaign with 30-35 points in their pocket from just a handful of countries (Georgia, France, Greece, Israel) and need 15-20 more from the rest of the field to secure qualification.

Furthermore, they have the ideal running order slot at #5, the one that holds the best record of qualifications (PV only)  for the first half in producers' era (15/22) and in 15/16 countries Semi - Final line-ups (7/9). 

Coming after a sequence of weak entries as well will help their cause even more and for all these reasons, Armenia is a lock for the Final I reckon.

The Final is a different story and Armenia is ticking every box of an entry that will not stand a chance to do well with any of the two constituencies. Diaspora will be there to secure a result just out of the Bottom-5 and this is the realistic goal for them.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Armenia securing qualification and then getting lost/forgotten/used as a filler in the Final, finishing 18th thanks to their diaspora.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 20.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.002%

Best case scenario:

17th-20th

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 35-55

F: J: 20-35 - PV: 30-60 - Tot: 50-95

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Armenia qualify as a result of their diaspora's and friends' support?

You can hear my thoughts about Poland in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple podcasts Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Australia

 

Milkshake Man - Go-Jo

Australia has taken a U-turn for their Eurovision '25 campaign trying to work something out for their Public vote shortcomings.

'Milkshake Man' had an impressive drop in odds when launched trading as low as high teens but then reality kicked in and drifted all the way to the '000s. 

The song is trying to balance between being a joke entry or a credible high energy fun song. It could go both ways and we have to wait for the staging to rate this one.

Australia does have a good connection with Juries and that might make their task a bit easier but I am not sure at what length the jurors will go with this one, having many similar entries of that genre. 

Being in the same Semi - Final with Malta and Finland might give Australia the boost they need if they stage their entry better. 

Qualifying to the Final is a certainty, belonging to the weakest part of both Semis. The Final is a different beast and there is a chance that they might get the 'No Rules' treatment if they miss to find the golden balance.

A mid-table result 13th-17th feels safe for the moment.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Cannot judge this one until I see it on stage so I will stick to 13th-17th .

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 37/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-0.2%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 70-100

F: J: 30-75 - PV: 50-125 - Tot: 80-200

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Australia a Top-10 contender or No Rules 2.0?

You can hear my thoughts about Australia in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Sweden

 

Bara Bada Bastu - KAJ

A Revolution happened indeed in Melfest '25 and KAJ will be the ones representing Sweden in Eurovision.

'Bara Bada Bastu' is the definition of a 'joke' entry tailored-made to have an appeal with all Eurovision demographics, being funny and slick enough to keep everyone happy and no-one  offended.

I do consider it a lock Top-2 with the Public vote, but I have not decided yet if it is the type of entry that could reach or surpass the 300 points threshold or it will have a Norway '19, Serbia '22 result. 

The main argument for my indecisiveness is that there many public vote magnets in its region (Finland, Estonia, even Norway) that would do not guarantee all the 12s and maybe some 10s there.

Additionally, I am not 100% certain that it will have the same appeal in some parts of Southern and Eastern Europe. It will get points there for sure but maybe not all will be top marks.

And finally, the most important reason of all. Sweden has branded themselves as a Jury oriented country and struggles traditionally with the Public. They have not received a single set of 12 Public vote points in the 20's despite having won and finished 4th in that span. 

For all these reasons a 250-290 points score feels closer to reality than a 325+ points score.

The hit or miss point for Sweden will be their jury appeal, where they will need to score a minimum of 175 points to keep themselves in contention without hoping for an abnormal Televote score.

The staging and vocals are there and jurors should be able to acknowledge and award them for that. They are a powerhouse as well and know all the tricks to get the points they need. The song is not divisive or aggressive to force jurors to blank them but there is still some uncertainty whether Juries will underestimate its artistic merit and treat it as joke that cannot award. 

I feel more comfortable estimating their Jury score in the 125-150 points region and I fear that this will not be enough to secure them the win.

They can still overperform with both constituencies but for the moment I prefer to take a more cautious approach.

I am 100% certain though that Sweden will finish in the Top-3 no matter what.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Sweden finishing Top-2 with the Public vote but coming a bit short with the Juries and finishing 3rd overall.

Televoting Potential: 9.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 9.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 43.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

10% - 20%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

4th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 140-175

F: J: 100-175 - PV: 225-300 - Tot: 325-475

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Sweden winning Eurovision the Finnish way?...

You can hear my thoughts about Sweden in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Portugal

 

Deslocado - NAPA

Portugal's Renaissance in Eurovision circle is taking a break this year in terms of successful results.

I do think that they missed the plot at one point during their national final with the jurors trying really hard to sabotage any entry that had some/any public vote potential.

As a result NAPA will represent Portugal this year, despite finishing 2nd in the Public vote and 4th with the Juries in Festival da Canção.

'Deslocadoº is about people leaving their homeland to go and live elsewhere and expresses their sorrows and nostalgia for back home. A universal message for sure but most probably will go unnoticed by the international audience.

In a 50-50 Semi - Final this entry could have been a surprise qualifier but I doubt they will have any luck now that they are performing right after Sweden. 

They will heavily rely on their diaspora to collect any points and they might get a few from countries like Spain, Switzerland but I am not confident that these will be high marks to reach the qualification threshold and let's not forget that Portugal traditionally struggles with the Public vote.

If a miracle happens and they qualify, they will get a few Jury points just to avoid Bottom-3.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Portugal finishing near the bottom of the Semi - Final receiving 15-20 points in total.

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 27/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Qualification to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-50

F: J: 20-45 - PV: 5-25 - Tot: 25-70

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Portugal doomed or their diaspora will pull a miracle to save them?

You can hear my thoughts about Portugal in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - San Marino

 

Tutta l'Italia - Gabry Ponte

There is not too much to comment on San Marino. I have to give them their flowers for their Machiavellian structured national final that takes turns on selecting either a big Italian name or an artist from abroad just to justify the fees they are charging for the foreigners to apply.

Gabry Ponte will be their representative, trying to bring some spark from San Remo, where Tutta l'Italia was the unofficial gig of the festival.

The problem is that San Remo wisely used these juicy 10-15 seconds of the song that are actually uplifting and super catchy but the rest of the song is uninspiring at least and render the song a very long 3 minutes.

Additionally, a Eurovision entry staged with the DJ being the centre of attention has not worked very well and this is an extra reason to be cautious with San Marino's qualification odds. The last attempt of this genre was Austria '22 that failed spectacularly to qualify even though it was considered one of the favourites and Gabry Ponte was the writer of that entry...

Another fact to keep in mind is that we have 3 Italian entries in the Semi - Final (Italy, San Marino, Estonia) and this is the weakest of all. 

There is still hope for San Marino to secure qualification but I would be very cautious with its odds. If they make it to the Final, 'Tutta l'Italia' is the main contender to finish last in the Jury vote and very close to the bottom, if not last place.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

San Marino is the definition of a borderline entry but my gut says that this does not have enough to secure qualification and might not even be close enough to that threshold. 13th in the Semi - Final.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 3/10

Momentum: 4/10

My Opinion: 3/10

Total: 17.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.000001%

Best case scenario:

Qualification to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 15-45

F: J: 0-10 - PV: 20-40 - Tot: 20-50

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could a 15-seconds song have enough traction to secure qualification?

You can hear my thoughts about San Marino in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Serbia

  

Mila - Princ

If there is one nation that is very stable in what they are delivering in Eurovision Semi-Finals that is Serbia.

The grand majority of their qualifications came finishing 8th-10th. They got the last ticket in their previous two attempts and they might go for a third time lucky this year.

'Mila' is the definition of a classic Balkan ballad, that feels a bit outdated but is performed exceptionally by Princ. Serbia will be in the second half of Semi - Final 2, where there are only two male artists (Princ, Adonxs) and many up-tempo entries. With the majorities of the other slow-tempo entries on the other half, they do have the best possible draw to maximize their chances for qualification.

Serbia has also a guaranteed head start of 18-24 points coming from Montenegro and Austria alone and it will not be difficult for them to find 20-30 points more to secure qualification.

Being in the Final, does give them an extra boost with the Jury score, assuming that Serbia will be near or inside the Top-10 because of the song's nature and some friendly Juries. 

The Public vote appeal is dubious but that's what the friends are for and the ex-Yugoslavs with the addition of Austria and Switzerland will be enough to secure anything between 30-50 points that could be enough for a left hand side result. 

If their Jury score reaches the 80-100 points threshold, Serbia might have a decent chance to finish in Top-10. If they fail to catch fire a classic 15th-20th result will be waiting for them. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Serbia will qualify to the Final, finishing higher than 10th and then get a middle table score with the Juries and Public vote, with enough points to finish 13th. 

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 8.5/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 6.5/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 37/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.2%

Best case scenario:

Left-hand side result

Worst case scenario:

NQ 

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 40-70

F: J: 60-120 - PV: 25-60 - Tot: 85-185

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Serbia miss the Final for the first time since 2017?

You can hear my thoughts about Serbia in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Austria

 

Wasted Love - JJ

Austria has one of the most intriguing entries of the year and it will be a case study that will either put the pop-opera genre to sleep once and for all or it will revive it again.

'Wasted Love' is a classic specimen of pop-opera performed by JJ, a countertenor with some talent show experience. The first minute does build nicely but then the song barely progresses until we reach the final minute where pop-opera meets a techno/trance build up to further highlight JJ's vocal abilities (at least in the studio version). The song's only purpose is to become a vessel so JJ can showcase his voice and this has not worked most of the times in Eurovision.

Austria is currently leading the odds in the Winner's market @3.50, a price that is based on the assumption that they will landslide the Jury vote and will finish in Top-4/5 with the Public vote.

I do believe that the current odds are unrealistic and are criminally overpriced.

Austria has a very narrow path to win Eurovision. They will need 275-300 points in the Jury vote, preferably closer to 300, and then get at least 200 points in the Public vote, but neither of the two constitutions is guaranteed for them. 

They need to achieve these numbers and at the same time Sweden must underperform with Juries or must not catch fire in the Public vote or both. Additionally, they will need France to finish lower with the Juries and be very close or lower with the Televote. 

The chance that all the above mentioned possibilities happen at the same time is very thin and this is the main reason I do not think that Austria could be the Eurovision winner. I highly doubt that Austria can win Juries or even score 250+ points with them and their Cinderella story will end mid-way through the voting. But even if they score the magical 275+ points, I struggle to find a path for them with the Public vote. They will need a minimum of 200 points and this is where the historical data with the performance of pop-opera entries kick in.

Pop-opera has traditionally struggled big time in Eurovision and this is not the first time a pop-opera entry is considered a favourite.

Back in 2011 France was trading as low as 2.50-2.70 the day of the Final to end up finishing 15th! In 2015 Italy has sent Il Volo with 'Grande Amore', the only pop-opera entry that came close to winning, achieving a remarkable Public vote result (386pts - 1st) but finished just 6th with the Juries (171pts). With the 50/50 system they would have finished 2nd behind Sweden but with a 95 point deficit. And their odds were somewhere between 4.00-6.00.

Estonia in 2018 ('La Forza') was also considered a contender trading as low as 6.00 and was Top-4 in the odds for most part of the season. It finished 8th (6th with Juries, 9th with Public vote). A year later, Australia tried to follow the same recipe sending 'Zero Gravity', an entry that went under the radar pre-rehearsals trading at 200s and then caught fire and traded as low as 8.00. Another underwhelming pop-opera result finishing 9th (6th with Juries and 7th with the Public).

The main reason why pop-opera is a hit and miss is that the genre is not everyone's cup of tea. There will be jurors that will blank it and audience that will not vote for it. Having a great voice/impressive vocal abilities does not guarantee anything and most of the times these songs are perceived as show-offs or pretentious and fail to connect. But for some reason there is this notion that pop-opera is quality and especially Juries will bite and vote for it hence the single digit odds and favouritism throughout the years.

Add to all that the statements from the Austrian broadcaster about a staging that we have never seen before and the red flags are multiplied with the addition of the videoclip syndrome (entries that look/feel better on the music video but fail to bring/recreate the same concept/atmosphere on stage). Austria's recipe for success feels a bit forced/non-organic/Eurovision by numbers and this is the reason why I think it is not a winner and feels more like a wannabe/false contender.

Could Austria and JJ deliver a performance that will be mentioned for ages and will win Eurovision? It is a possibility, but for all the reasons I mentioned above, I believe it is safer to consider it an entry that could finish 5th-8th and with the perfect storm aim for a bit higher.

I will have an open mind for rehearsals but I doubt that Austria will crack Top-3.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Austria failing to finish in the Jury Top-3 and Public vote Top-5 and end-up 6th-8th overall carrying the torch for pop-opera songs that did not live up to expectations...

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 37/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

2% - 4%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

Missing Top-10

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 90-120

F: J: 125-200 - PV: 100-175 - Tot: 225-375

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Does Austria have 'The Package' that could secure them the win?

You can hear my thoughts about Austria in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Iceland

 

RO'A - VÆB

Iceland is a country that loves creating streaks of qualifications and non-qualifications: 

'05-'07: NQ / '08-'14: Q / '15-'18: NQ / '19-'22: Q

'23-'24: NQ...

I do have a suspicion that the NQ streak might continue this year as well, with Iceland performing in the first half of the first Semi-Final along with the likes of Estonia, Sweden, Ukraine, Poland, countries that are destined to grab the majority of points.

Væb, aka the Icelandic Jedward, will try to bring their energy on stage with a happy dance along entry that would suit better Eurovision Junior or Ireland or both...

This is a potential opener for the Semi but I do fear that Iceland will get lost with so many stronger entries coming after them. They do have some friends (Sweden, Norway) that could guarantee 10-15 points but I struggle to see where they can find the rest of the 30-35 points needed for the qualification.

There is no target audience that would vote for this one, maybe with the exception of kids, but Sweden takes over that demographic as well.

Overall, this is a better entry than their previous two but still lacks the quality to secure qualification.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Iceland finishing 12th-14th in the Semi - Final. 

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 3/10

Total: 20.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Qualification for the Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 15-45

F: J: 0-10 - PV: 10-20 - Tot: 10-30

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Iceland a certain non-qualifier or still in the mix for qualification?

You can hear my thoughts about Iceland in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Denmark

 

Hallucination - Sissal

Has the time come for Denmark's first qualification for the final in the '20s? 

DMGP  might have had a better option in my opinion in Adel the Second.

The Danes have opted for Sissal, a strong vocalist and remains to be seen if they were collectively hallucinating when they were voting for her or if their entry does stand a chance to qualify. 

'Hallucination' is stronger in its studio version and the staging in DMGP lacked the energy and the movement to lift it. A dance track with a static performer will definitely struggle in Eurovision and this might be the deciding factor regarding its qualification chances.

I do believe that EBU/producers will try to help Denmark that now holds the second  longest non-qualification streak (4 NQs) and I would not be surprised if Sissal is the artist that will be closing Semi - Final 2 instead of Finland or Malta. 

Assuming that we will have 6 countries qualifying from the second half and Georgia is a certain non-qualifier, Denmark needs to beat any of Czechia, Serbia and hoping that there will be no surprise from the first half. 

I do have Denmark in my borderline list, currently leaning towards qualification but they will need to come up with a better, more powerful staging keeping also in mind that Finland, Malta, Luxembourg and Israel (all female performers) are in the same half and could hurt Sissal's chances.

If in the Final, Denmark is destined to get lost in the crowd and with a handful of stronger entries from the same region, avoiding a Bottom-5 finish will be the main focus.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Denmark finishing 10th or 11th making it or missing the Final for a couple of points. If in the Final, they will get a few low scores from their region enough to avoid finishing in Bottom-3.

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 33/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.3%

Best case scenario:

Top-15

Worst case scenario:

NQ 

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 30-65

F: J: 25-50 - PV: 15-40- Tot: 40-90

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Denmark closer than ever to their first qualification to the Final since 2019?

You can hear my thoughts about Denmark in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Lithuania

 

Tavo Akys - Katarsis

Lithuania is quietly building a great qualification streak (currently 4 Qs) in the '20s, which is also the longest in their history.

'Tavo Akys' is one of the most interesting entries of the year serving a genre (grunge indie) that we rarely see in Eurovision but it definitely has an audience and could do well throughout the continent.

Qualification is not in question here. The main goal for Lithuania is to reach the Top-10, something that they have achieved only 3 times in their 24 participations. The Lithuanian diaspora is always there to support their country and the few allies could give them the ammo that they need to reach the 150+ points to get there.

In my opinion, Lithuania will be a Top-10 entry in the Public vote and I do believe that a mid-table to Top-10 result with the Juries is also achievable. The song is not aggressive to be marked down and the vocals are in place as well. This is a genre that could perform really well in Eastern and Central Europe. 

Lithuania has been the country whose televote score was supressed the most by the Ukrainian inflated numbers and maybe this is the time to get back some of these points.

8th to 12th is where I currently have Lithuania in my rankings.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Lithuania finishing 4th-5th in the Semi - Final, which is full of friends and diaspora and then achieve a left hand-side result finishing 10th.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 39.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.5%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

17th-19th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 80-110

F: J: 40-70 - PV: 60-120 - Tot: 100-190

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Lithuania be the shocker Top-10 entry of the Final? 

You can hear my thoughts about Lithuania in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple podcasts Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - United Kingdom

 

What the hell just happened? - Remember Monday

After another season full of rumours and leaks UK opted for Remember Monday, a country-pop girl group that had never charted in the UK before the release of their Eurovision entry!

'WTHJH' has an ABBAesque musical vibe and loads of rhythm changes that makes it difficult for the audience to follow it. Theatrical for sure and some jurors will reward the girls for their vocal abilities but I do struggle to find a target audience that will vote for this in the Public vote. There is basically no song there, just a vocal exercise...

There were a few comparisons to OG3NE, that represented Netherlands and finished 5th in the Jury vote, but at the same time they only scored 15 Public vote points and 10 of these points came from their neighbours Belgium.

I am expecting a similar score to last year, maybe a tad better with the Juries but I am not very hopeful for the Public vote. Olly last year received 0 points and I would not be surprised to see a repeat...

The BBC, if they are actually interested in achieving good results in Eurovision, should change their approach and try to allure a big name with an ambition to do well and invest their time and effort to promote their entry. 

All the good faith that Sam Ryder's result brought back in '22 is now gone.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

A few decent points from Juries here and there and a single digit score with the Public that might be enough to avoid a Bottom-5 result. 22nd-24th

Televoting Potential: 2/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 2/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 25/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01%

Best case scenario:

Top-15

Worst case scenario:

Last Place

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 25-75 - PV: 0-15 - Tot: 25-90

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is UK for a 0 points Public vote score for a second year in a row?

You can hear my thoughts about United Kingdom in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Ireland

 

Laika Party - Emmy

Every artist has a chance to go to Eurovision if they are in the right place in the right time. 

Emmy got lucky when the big names failed to deliver in Eurosong 2025 and got the ticket to Basel. 

'Laika Party' gives me the impression of a MGP reject that tried its luck in a different country and actually made it. 

There is not much to comment about the actual entry, a dance track made for Eurovision Junior talking about a Soviet dog going to space, performed by a Norwegian artist that will represent Ireland...

Ireland has a very thin chance of qualifying and that has to do with its Semi - Final being full of friends (UK, Australia, Malta) and performing in the first part of the Semi - Final that is full of slow tempo entries. 

In order to have a chance, they will need at least a couple of high scores from their friends that I highly doubt they will get and also to receive these 1s-3s from many countries, which is not happening either.

I firmly believe that Ireland is the biggest downgrade from 2024 and something needs to be done with their national selection process that being hosted in a small studio, fails to evaluate correctly an entry with potential for a bigger stage.

I have Ireland in my certain non-qualifiers list for the moment and I reckon this is where it will stay till the end. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Ireland finishing last or penultimate in the Semi - Final honouring their pre-Bambie Thug tradition. If a miracle happens and they qualify to the Final, 'Laika' will be the strongest contender for the wooden spoon.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 21.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Qualification to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-45

F: J: 0-10 - PV: 10-25 - Tot: 10-35

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Does Ireland have enough to avoid Bottom-3 in Semi-Final?

You can hear my thoughts about Ireland in the 3rd episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Spain

 Esa Diva - Melody

Spain is the living proof that money cannot buy happiness. Benidorm is giving less and less every year that goes by and Chanel proved to be a fluke.

This year some changes were made in the structure but instead of having a better overall package we were left with a number of entries that were all set up for Eurovision fail.

 Spain is sending the same entry they have been sending the last 25 years. 'Esa Diva' is twenty years late in the party to have an impact and things will be tough for them with both constituencies.

Melody is a charismatic performer that could be acknowledged by the jurors, but she is missing a song and the only thing I could really hope for Spain is that they finally learn the lesson and change everything in their selection process and the acts that participate in Benidorm.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Spain fighting hard to avoid last place and finishing with a single digit overall score. 25th-26th.

Televoting Potential: 3/10

Jury Potential: 3/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 19/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Top-15

Worst case scenario:

Last Place

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 0-10 - PV: 0-15 - Tot: 0-25

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Does Spain have enough to avoid a Bottom-3 finish?

You can hear my thoughts about Spain in the 2nd episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Malta

 

Serving... - Miriana Conte

If you are looking for signs that the Apocalypse is coming, look no more! Malta is a sending a televote magnet for the first time in almost twenty years!

They have decided to adapt and opt for an entry that could have a chance in a 100% Public vote environment.

'Serving' is the definition of a guilty pleasure entry and Miriana is flirting with trash in a very clever way to sell the song perfectly. EBU's decision to not allow 'Kant' (the famous philosopher😏) on Eurovision stage could work in its favour with commentators mentioning the fact.

I am very intrigued to find out if Malta's "jury appeal" will apply in 'Serving' as well. There will be some public vote going to Malta's side but I do fear that Malta will be the televote magnet that will struggle the most to crack to the Top-10 of that constituency, especially with their track record.

Malta's only realistic ambition is to qualify to the Final for the first time since 2021 and I do think that they will succeed, but still do not consider them a 100% lock, again because of their traditional struggle with the public vote. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Malta barely qualifying to the Final (7th-10th) and then used as a filler between two stronger entries and go to sleep finishing 17th-23rd. 

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 3/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 4/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 26.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01% - 0.02%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Non qualification

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 40-75

F: J: 15-30 - PV: 25-50 - Tot: 40-80

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Can Malta blend their traditional Jury backing with a decent Public vote score to secure a spot in the Top-10?

You can hear my thoughts about Malta in the 3rd episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Ukraine

 

Bird of pray - Ziferblat

I believe this is the year that the inflated Ukrainian public vote numbers are returning to normality. Ukrainian diaspora and a few friends will always be there to support them and it remains to be seen how loyal the diaspora is when their country is sending a non-competitive entry.

Vidbir '25 has been underwhelming which might not be a coincidence after what happened last year in Eurovision and the treatment that Ukraine had from EBU, that used the running order in the Final to make clear that Ukraine winning is not something they are looking forward to.

Ukraine might have decided to tone it down a bit and experiment sending an entry that has an artistic merit but is not suitable for a Contest environment. But if there is one country that could get every inch of potential out of their entry with the staging that is Ukraine.

Ziferblat reminds me of Lake Malawi and I expect from them a similar result reversing the Jury score with the Public vote one. I expect Juries to be more hesitant voting for them and I still expect them to reach a three digit number with the Public vote that could secure them the Top-10. If 'Bird of pray' was representing any other country its place would have been somewhere between 18th-24th. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

This is Ukraine we are talking about and qualification should not be an issue. Making it to the final and then heavily boosted by the Ukrainian diaspora, Ukraine will make a run to secure the Top-10. Currently have them 9th-11th. 

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 5/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 28/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.2%

Best case scenario:

7th-8th

Worst case scenario:

14th-17th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 50-75

F: J: 25-75 - PV: 80-120 - Tot: 105-195

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is there an actual chance for Ukraine to finish out of the Top-10 for the first time since 2018?

You can hear my thoughts about Ukraine in the 3rd episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Albania

 

Zjerm - Shkodra Elektronike

I have waited for a while before posting Albania's review just to make sure that my enthusiasm and bias will settle down. 

'Zjerm' is my personal favourite entry for the season and coming from a nation that has not had great success in Eurovision makes things more complicated. I will try to be as much objective as possible but you have been warned. 

I loved the entry since its audio release before Festival I Kenges and never looked back. It is an interesting mix of electro/dance music with traditional music instruments that manages to blend them nicely offering an authentic and filling experience. 

The song progresses nicely after grabbing your attention from the very first second and Beatrice is a true performer. The break in the middle with Kole's lyrics does add to the song's value but it is very clear that Kole does not feel 100% comfortable and this is something that needs to be addressed for Eurovision.

I do have the suspicion that Albania could have an impact with both constituencies, ticking boxes and oozing authenticity. Albania by numbers has a secured amount of points coming from diaspora and friends (50-80) and adding 20-30 points with each constituency might be enough to secure them the Top-10 place that they have been missing for 13 years! This is the first Albanian entry after a very long time that will be getting points in Public vote outside of their diaspora deservedly.

In my opinion, the actual result does not matter that much for Albania because this is the kind of entries they should be sending to Eurovision, representing their culture and tradition but showing some ambition as well. 

I do believe that Albania has a unique chance to create some hype after the Semi - Final and fight/contend for a spot in the Top-5 but this might be a tough ask for them. I believe they will land somewhere in the middle being 8th-10th. 

 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Albania cruising to the Final and most probably cracks the Top-5 in the Semi - Final. The hype will get traction and Albania will secure its first Top-10 result since 2012 finishing 8th-10th. I will not be surprised if they finish in Top-10 with both constituencies. 

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 7.5/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 42/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 1%

Best case scenario:

6th-8th

Worst case scenario:

14th-17th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 75-105

F: J: 75-100 - PV: 75-125 - Tot: 150-225

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Albania capable of pulling a 'Shum' and crack the Top-5?

You can hear my thoughts about Albania in the 1st episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Luxembourg

 

La poupée monte le son - Laura Thorn

Luxembourg is creating a tradition, organizing its National Final early in the season, opting for a competitive entry that goes under the radar for the whole season, only to show up during the Eurovision week and secure a respectable mid-table result.

This year, they have decided to add some Easter eggs in their entry as well, an homage to France Gall, celebrating the 60th anniversary of her win, using original footage from Eurovision '65.

Good call from Luxembourg trying to establish themselves as a country that will be sending contemporary pop entries, a bit cheesy or vanilla, but no one would expect from a tiny wealthy country to opt for trance or hard rock.

Laura Thorn is a telegenic performer and the staging of 'LPMLS' in the national final gives a rough idea of how this will be staged for Eurovision. The song itself has this kind of fairy pop nostalgia and will  definitely have an audience to back it and secure qualification. Being in the second half of its Semi - Final, which has many low-tempo entries, does help the cause as well.

When in Final, things might be tougher for them in the Public vote but the song has enough to secure a respectable mid to Top-10 result with the Juries. There is a chance that it gets completely lost in the Final though and finishes near the bottom.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Luxembourg securing qualification comfortably and get a balanced mid-table score with both constituencies to finish13th-17th. 

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 37/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.3%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 60-90

F: J: 50-75 - PV: 30-50 - Tot: 80-125

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Luxembourg repeat last year's successful result?

You can hear my thoughts about Luxembourg in the 2nd episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts 

Spotify