Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Finland

 

Ich Komme - Erika Vikman

Finland once again has treated us with a national final of great quality and high standards!

Erika won by a landslide, as expected when the breakdown of the voting is 70% PV and 30% Juries. 

'Ich Komme' is a continuation of Finland's quest to win Eurovision through the Public Vote scoreboard. The staging of the UMK was stunning with three minutes full of sexual tension and climax.

Erika is a very competent and full of charisma artist and lifts the song with her personality and stage show. I reckon that this is Eurovision ready and could do really well in Basel. Knowing already half of the songs and having listened to a few more countries that have not decided yet, Finland is the country that has the most PV potential. This is a great starting point for them and could boost their chances for a great result in May. 

If the goal is to finish in Top-5, Finland has a chance to be in the mix. My biggest concern is their jury appeal. 'Cha cha cha' received 150 jury points mostly because it was considered a favourite and some jurors did not want to shut down Kaarija's path to victory.

I am not going to state that 'Ich komme' is 'Cha cha cha 2.0' but it does not carry the same weight nevertheless. The staging is full of sexual references that will not go well with the majority of the jurors and I struggle to see a path for a three digit score with them. And this is the reason that any discussion about Finland winning Eurovision is more of wishful thinking than a realistic scenario.

Last year I mentioned in my posts and in the podcast that having this type of entries in the line-up will make jurors more open and receptive, awarding the artistry and show that the televote magnets offer and render these entries more credible. Croatia '24 finished 3rd scoring 200+ points with them and Ireland finished 6th over the jury friendly entries from Portugal and Sweden.

However, the jury-oriented entries managed to get a wider support from the public vote, that helped widen the gap between the jury and public vote favourites. France and Switzerland finished 4th and 5th in the Public Vote respectively, both scoring 220+ points and both received points from all countries! And this is where Finland's path to be a Public Vote Top-3 gets tricky. 

Add to that the X-factor of Israel's public vote score and Finland could end up finishing anywhere between 6th - 10th which is where I think it will end up in the end. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Finland finishing 2nd in the Semi - Final, getting a decent running order for the Final and finishing 7th with a J: 50-80 pts - PV: 150-200 split. 

Televoting Potential: 9/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 38/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1% - 3%

Best case scenario:

Top-4

Worst case scenario:

Right-hand side result in the Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 160-200

F: J: 50-80 - PV: 150-200 - Tot: 200-280

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Do you think Finland has enough to win Eurovision?

You can hear my thoughts about Finland in the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Greece

 

'Asteromata' - Klavdia

The first Greek national final after a decade had no surprises and Klavdia will represent Greece with 'Asteromata', an ethnic ballad that talks about the uprooting of the Pontian Greeks a century ago from the Ottoman Empire. Klavdia is a Pontian herself and the song is an homage to her ancestors. 

In all fairness 'Asteromata' has been the strongest entry of the rather poor in quality Ethnikos Telikos. When I first listened to the studio version my first thought was that I totally get why the Greek audience and jury will opt for this option but at the same time I could totally see Greece flopping in the Semi - Final.

Klavdia is a strong vocalist but I find the song lacking the energy and passion that should have lifted it further. I get the impression that certain elements of the instrumentation were added without a purpose just for ticking the 'what the Europeans would want to listen to a Greek ethnic ballad' boxes. 

Greece will have some hard work to do regarding the staging. This will be the deciding factor between qualification and elimination. The market realised during the national final that the Greek odds were highly overestimated and there was a correction with Greece currently trading around 50 when it was trading  on high teens a week ago. 

My personal opinion is that Greece will be a borderline qualifier or non-qualifier and if in the Final a low mid-table result (15th-20th) would be fair. 

I will start with the good news. Greece will be performing in the first part of the 2nd Semi - Final, away from most of the public vote magnets that will be in the 1st Semi - Final. In theory this is the weakest of the Semis.

Greece needs a staging that will create a call for action that 'Asteromata' is lacking. It could be a powerful choreography or some visuals.

Now the bad news and my personal red flags. I will start with the numbers that they do not add up for Greece.

There are 3 solid allies in the Semi - Final (Armenia, Georgia, Serbia) that have a 100% of voting for Greece in Semi - Finals, however only Armenia steadily provides high scores. Australia and Germany in theory have Greek diasporas that could boost the Greek score but I wouldn't expect any high scores from them either.

There is a significant list of countries that is consistently not voting for  Greece in the Semi - Finals (Lithuania 0/3, Ireland 0/1, Austria 1/6, Latvia 1/4, Finland 1/5, Israel 1/3) and will be performing in the same Semi. 

Greece's public vote points in the '16-'24 era all come from the Balkans and the Caucasus region with the exception of '21 and '22 that were tailored-made entries for the Western audiences. The only Greek ethnic entry that managed to get some points from the West was 'Zari' last year.

This is the main reason why Greece barely makes the Public Vote Top-10 in the Semis, when they make it ('16:14th, '17:9th, '18:10th, '19:9th, '21:7th, '22:8th, '23:13th, '24:5th).

If the qualifying threshold is in the 40-45 points region, Greece has a chance. If the threshold moves above the 50 points things will get tough.

The running order will be another issue that Greece might need to tackle. Having Montenegro in the same half, with a slow tempo entry and its last qualification dating back in 2015, we have to assume that they will get a favourable #7 or #8 in the running order and that could leave Greece buried in #2 or #3...

Greece's only path for qualification goes through the votes that will come from the Western front and this is the main reason I am currently leaning towards a borderline non-qualification. 

Greece is not getting points from there recently or consistently. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Greece finishing 11th in the Semi - Final, missing the Final for 3-4 points. If somehow they make the cut, I expect a 15th-20h ranking. Finishing third in the International jury of the National final in a poor line-up is another red flag regarding the jury potential...

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 4/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 29/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% or lower

Best case scenario:

Left-hand side result in Final

Worst case scenario:

Non- qualification

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 30-45

F: J: 20-50 - PV: 25-35 - Tot: 45-85

Eurovision 2025 - Ethnikos Telikos 2025 - Preview

 

We are finally entering to the main part of the National Final's season and what a way to start the previews.

ERT is organising its first National Final in ten years and I was expecting a stronger line-up, given the interest regarding Eurovision from the Greek audience.

We are heading for a two horse race with a clear? favourite (Klavdia). Klavdia's 'Asteromata' is the song that currently is leading the odds @1.50, and also the views in ERT's official channel in Youtube. An ethnic ballad with many traditional influences and a dedicated national audience. From the first listen I recognised the reasons why the Greek public and Jury would vote for it. It has in theory most of the elements that the European audience and juries would look for in a Greek entry. 

Ethnic entries have indeed brought Greece's best result in the '00s and early '10s, boosted by the support of the Greek diaspora. However, two ethnic entries were responsible for Greece's first two non-qualifications back in 2016 and 2018. 

I do believe that 'Asteromata' fails to connect with the audience. It needs an amazing staging and charisma from Klavdia to lift it on stage. This is a jury bait entry and having Greece performing in the first half of the second Semi - Final in May, the same half with Montenegro that will be heavily backed from EBU and producers to qualify, might bring an early running order somewhere in the #2 - #4 area which is never great news for a slow tempo entry. Add Armenia, Australia, Latvia that are expected to have strong entries and will perform in the same half and Greece's chances for qualification might be in trouble. 

'Oneiro mou' back in 2018 had a far better running order in the Semi - Final, did manage to finish 10th in Public Vote, however only 11/53 points came from countries that will be in the same SF this year...

The only alternative option for Eurovision will be Evangelia's 'Vale'. Given the hype and Evangelia's efforts to represent Greece for some time, I would expect a stronger entry from her as well. Too many elements mixed together, with some of them working while others don't. Tries to be anthemic but a bit basic with a forced effort to have some ethnic elements in the end as well.

It could offer Greece an easier path to qualify to the Final, but it would get lost in the Final, scoring enough points with friends and allies to secure a low-mid table result. 

I do believe that Greece's achievable goal for Eurovision 2025 is to qualify and then avoid a Bottom-5 result. I do not prefer or endorse any of the two entries, I just state that 'Vale' might have an easier path to the Final but 'Asteromata' could have a better appeal with Juries and finish mid-table.

Moving to the National Final analysis, there will be a 50-25-25 (Public vote - National/International jury) voting system. Klavdia is considered the favourite for tonight because in theory, is leading the Public vote and the National jury. Evangelia, on the other side, could finish first or second with the Public vote but is expected to finish third or fourth with the Juries.

There are a few things that need to be taken in consideration though. First of all Greece has not had a NF for a while and there are no recent patterns or trends that could enlighten us. We can guess/estimate that the Greek jury will opt for Klavdia. 

We have no idea how the International jury will vote. They could go for the two favourites or add BARBZ to the mix. 

Things with the Public vote might be more complicated than people might think. The Final will be broadcasted the same time with three main sports events, reducing the percentage of potential voters and things could be more marginal.

Odds as well, could mean nothing and last year proved it spectacularly. Isaak was trading @27 in Germany, Sarah Bonnici @15 in Malta, Windows95man @10 in Finland, Hera Bjork @ 10 in Iceland, Bambie Thug @3.00 in Ireland, Nebulossa @12 in Spain etc.

All the odds mentioned above were  available the day of or during the National Finals. The odds are based on fan polls and the views but do not mean anything when the time of the voting starts.

In my opinion there are only two options when it comes to betting in National Finals:

a. Go for the underdog.

b. No bet.

Klavdia is the favourite to win, however there is no value in the available odds. I have taken a small bet on Evangelia @5.00 in Betfair Exchange and I do think that there is still value in odds over 3.00-3.50. 

Hopefully there will be more liquidity tomorrow but I wouldn't recommend high stakes.

Good luck to Greece and may the best song wins!!!