This post will be about the Prediction of the Public vote.
For those who have not read the previous post, a quick reminder of the parameters we have set to the panellists and the list with the 16 members that have been selected to be part of the project. I would like to thank them all once again.
We have formed a panel of 16 Eurovision analysts/experts from various parts of Europe and Australia and gave them some very simple instructions:
Please prepare 2 separate rankings of the following countries - one would be your Grand Final Public Vote prediction and the other your Grand Final Jury Vote prediction: Israel, Ukraine, Estonia, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Sweden, Norway, Australia, Finland, UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, France, Italy, Czechia, Poland, Malta, Greece, Cyprus, Slovenia, Serbia, Albania (26) * As you can see, we will only be ranking countries that have an objectively realistic chance of a left hand side finish with at least one of the two constituencies in the final - no point in ranking every single one of them. * Individual responses/rankings will not be posted.
We are NOT voting as jurors. We are NOT voting based on personal taste/preference. We ARE trying to PREDICT how the jury and televote will vote in May. * We will only present the final totals - one for Grand Final Public Vote prediction and one for Grand Final Jury Vote prediction.
The 16 members of the panel are:
Alex Panayi (Cyprus)
Davide Maistrello (Italy)
(Portugal)
(Denmark)
(Netherlands)
(Slovenia)
(Estonia/Indonesia)
from (Australia)
(Greece)
(UK)
(Cyprus)
Shae (Israel)
Rob Furber from (UK)
Steef Van Gorkum from (Netherlands)
(Ireland)
(Greece)
To calculate the results, we have added the rankings from 1-26 of all members of the panel, but I have also analysed their responses splitting them in two sub-groups:
a. The professional bettors/analysts that are actively involved in the betting aspect of Eurovision with 7 members (Matt Rickard, Panos Zannettos, Rob Furber, CDbjerg, Villu Veedla, Escbetting and myself).
b. The Eurovision experts (bloggers, content creators, former Eurovision participant, analysts not involved in betting) with 9 members.
The reason for dividing the panel is to check for discrepancies between the two groups and to verify if some entries have more gravitas with an individual group. For clarity, I will call the first group from now on Analysts and the second group Experts.
The honourable non mentions aka the first discrepancy between the two constituencies and the fallen fans' favourites
While in the Jury prediction 24/26 countries got at least one Top-10 mention, in the Public vote there were 7 countries that have received 0 with some names that will raise a few eyebrows between them...Grab your popcorn:
Azerbaijan, Serbia, Slovenia, UK, Luxembourg...(so far so good), Italy and Belgium! At the request of the survivors, the top marks have not been disclosed...😊
Unlike the Jury vote where 4 countries received only one Top-10 rating, there was only one country that had a single mention in the Public vote and that is Switzerland!
There is a second group of 5 countries that have received just 2/16 Top-10 ratings and a few more eyebrows will be raised here as well...
Cyprus, Greece, Lithuania (in line with the online polls and expectations so far), Czechia (9th and 10th) and Norway (2 x 10th)!
Both Czechia and Norway had 0/7 mentions from the Analysts' subgroup...
If there was a point system in place, these two would be finishing lower than any other country that got at least one Top-10 mention.
PS: Switzerland's only Top-10 rating was 6th.
The not great, not terrible just in the middle of the road entries
Poland, Malta and Australia are the entries that barely missed the Top-10 managing to receive between 3/16 and 7/16 mentions.
Poland got all 3 mentions from the Experts' sub-group while the other two were consistent with both but not catching fire.
The one category by itself country
In theory Germany, that managed to sneak in the Top-10 of the Public vote, belongs to the group of countries that were mentioned above (6/16 mentions).
The reason I have created a special mention to them is the fact that this is the country with the biggest discrepancy between the two subgroups!
5/7 Analysts have included Germany in their Top-10 prediction (all having them 7th-10th) and only 1/9 Expert that rated it 3rd!
Is this a hint that Germany can/will do better with casuals and the Analysts were able to recognise the potential ahead of the market? I do reckon yes.
Ps: Of all countries that were mentioned so far ranking from 26th to 10th, only Germany managed to get a Top-3 mention so far.
The lower Top-10 entries aka the ones that most of the members of the project agreed on but did not rate them high enough aka Austria/Finland what are you doing here?
Albania (9th-10/16), Finland (8th- 13/16), Austria (7th- 11/16) form a group of countries that feels like an isolated island. Miles ahead of the countries before them in terms of Top-10 mentions but also way behind the countries that form the Top-6.
At last two of them have received a Top-2 mention, the first countries so far that made it that high, and the same countries also received a Top-3 mention.
A fun fact, the countries I am talking about are Albania and Finland, with Austria failing to crack the Top-3 with any member of the Project!
Albania had a balanced 5/7 Analysts - 5/9 Experts split Top-10 mentions, doing slightly better with the Analysts. They have been consistent with both constituencies and both subgroups suggesting that the Top-10 result is within reach for them.
Finland has been consistent as well receiving 6/7 Analysts' mentions and 7/9 Experts'. The main issue for them is that 4/13 mentions have them 10th and 8/13 in total were in the 8th-10th region, not a good sign for an entry that was 2nd favourite to win the Contest based on their Public vote score a few months ago.
Austria is the only country in the Public vote Top-10 that failed to get a Top-3 mention and the only country in Top-8 that was mentioned by less than 13 members in their Top-10 (11/16).
Their split was 4/7 Analysts and 7/9 Experts. I know that many will comment that me personally and the Talk About Things as whole have been very vocal against the Austrian odds and chances but I can state that we were not us three the ones that blanked Austria. Some of us did but we were not the only ones. There is only one Top-5 mention coming from the Analysts and 4 from the Experts.
X might think that I have a personal vendetta against Austria but the fact is that I am just sceptical of their chances to contend, because of all these red flags/flaws in their metrics that suggest that Austria is a polarised entry that could/would be ignored by the public that has other/better options to vote for.
Voted by the great majority but far far away from the Top-4
Netherlands (6th - 13/16) and Ukraine (5th - 16/16) form a Tier-3 by themselves. Netherlands has a balanced 6/7 - 7/9 split of Top-10 mentions and was ranked 4 times in the medal zone (0-1-3).
Ukraine on the other hand was rated Top-10 by all members of the project but most of the rankings are in the 5th-8th zone. Ukraine's PV is still a big puzzle for the analysts and all of them have chosen to play it safe and include Ukraine up there.
And now the time for the Top-4 numbers has come
4. France
Top-10 mentions: 16/16 (7/7 Analysts - 9/9 Experts)
Winner mentions: 0/16
Runner up mentions: 0/16
Top-3 mentions: 2/16 (2 Experts)
France managed to secure a Top-10 mention from all members and 13/16 mentions are within the 3rd-6th range, exactly the marks that France will be aiming for in the Public vote.
Comparing France's Public vote performance and Sweden's Jury performance, both countries finished 4th and average wise France got a slight advantage thanks to Sweden's blank by an Expert.
The prediction implies that France is a secure Top-4 entry in the Public vote that could go lower only if the Ukrainian diaspora shows up in huge numbers. The Public vote 4th place in the 50/50 era ('16-'24) has an average of 205.5 points in a 37 countries line-up and a median score of 213 points.
The 4th place in Jury vote for the same era and country line-up has an average of 166 points and a median score of 169 points for those who would like to compare the France - Sweden numbers in their weak side.
3. Estonia
Top-10 mentions: 16/16 (7/7 Analysts - 9/9 Experts)
Winner mentions: 2/16 (1-1)
Runner up mentions: 5/16 (3 Analysts - 2 Experts)
Top-3 mentions: 4/16 (2 - 2)
Estonia is expected to do great in the Public vote and their potential was acknowledged by the panellists with 11/16 ranking them in their Top-3.
Their lowest rank was 8th and there were a couple of 7th ranks, leaving some space for a mixed feelings result and these scores are the ones that made the difference between finishing 3rd or 2nd.
2. Israel
Top-10 mentions: 16/16 (7/7 Analysts - 9/9 Experts)
Winner mentions: 2/16 (1-1)
Runner up mentions: 6/16 (2 Analysts - 4 Experts)
Top-3 mentions: 1/16 (Expert)
The battle between Israel and Estonia for the 2nd place had Israel as the winner, however, in the Analysts' subgroup Estonia finished 2nd slightly ahead.
Is Israel's superiority a late reaction to last year's results, expecting a similar score? Probably. Analysts tend to agree or at least lean to that direction while the Experts are more decisive giving Israel a comfortable lead in 2nd place.
1. Sweden
Top-10 mentions: 16/16 (7/7 Analysts - 9/9 Experts)
Winner mentions: 12/16 (5 Analysts - 7 Experts)
Runner up mentions: 2/16 (2 Analysts)
Top-3 mentions: 2/16 (2 Experts)
And the winner is hands down Sweden with all 16 mentions being a Top-3 result. The average Public vote winner score in the 50/50 era ('16-'24) in a 37 country line - up is 331.5 points, the same with the median (thank you Ukraine '22). To add some context, the Jury vote winner average score is 286.3 points and the median score is 271 points.
It remains to be seen how high the Swedish score will be and if Estonia and Israel could pose a threat for them.
If there was a medal ceremony for the rankings the results would be like this
1. Sweden 12-2-2
2. Israel 2-6-1
3. Estonia 2-5-4
4. Netherlands 0-1-3
5. Albania/Finland 0-1-1
7. France 0-0-2
8. Germany 0-0-1
The Talk About all Things ESC team's Public vote results
There are a few discrepancies between the overall and our results that are worth mentioning.
The first one is Estonia ranked 2nd and Israel 4th. Is it because we overrate Estonia or underrate Israel's public appeal or both? Could be but we are more confident in Estonia's potential in line with the other Analysts' forecast.
We have been the stronger Netherlands' supporters and still believe that Netherlands has the potential to appeal to the casuals.
Even though we are avid supporters of France's chances to be a contender, we have them a place lower than the Projection .
We are more optimistic about Albania and Germany and a bit underwhelmed about Finland's chances to do well in the Public vote.
Austria barely missed the Top-10.
Share your thoughts and objections in the comments area and tomorrow there will be some numbers (not points) trying to shed more light to the potential winner of Eurovision 2025.
