Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Netherlands

 

C'est La Vie - Claude

Netherlands is back! And is aiming for the top!

After last year's drama, AVROTROS opted to go back to the recipe that has brought them the win back in '19 and a 2nd place in '14. 

Claude is a charismatic performer, I dare to say the most charismatic of the '25 class and will bring on stage his personal story sending a message of hope and faith.

'C'est La Vie' is a very smart entry, aiming to keep it simple but impactful. They have solved the French language barrier by using simple wording that is understood even by the non-French speakers, something that France did as well with Voila'. 

The aim of the entry is to tick the correct Jury boxes and get a solid start finishing Top-2/3 with them and then try to get some momentum going with the Public vote.

I do believe that the Jury part is a lock for them, hence my enthusiasm and support in Winner's market and I do feel confident that the song will click with the viewers as well.

Netherlands is what I consider a 'low-maintenance' contender, that does not need to win or landslide any of the two constituencies but just needs to be Top-2/4 with them to be in the game till the very end. 

This is the main reason that I do have Netherlands in my Tier 1 entries. I could see them score 250-275 points with the Juries and a slightly smaller score with the Public vote, something like 200-225. 

My data suggest that the entries which get points from the vast majority of countries in the Jury vote, and Netherlands does fit that description, also get voted in Public vote and this is the recipe for a great result. 

Switzerland and France last year finished 5th and 4th in Public vote, scoring 220-221 points but both were voted by all countries in the Televote! 

For all these reasons, I do consider Netherlands a secure Top-4 entry that has the potential to surprise us and win the Contest.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Netherlands finishing in Top-2 in the Jury vote near the 300 points threshold and in Top-5 with the Public vote and reach the magic 500 points number that could land them the victory.

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 9.5/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 43.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

5% - 12.5%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

Top-6

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 80-120

F: J: 225-300 - PV: 150-225 - Tot: 425 - 525

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Netherlands a contender or a Public vote flop?

You can hear my thoughts about Netherlands in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Armenia

 

Survivor - Parg

One of the most anticlimactic national finals of the season where a very average entry won because of the total lack of any competition happened in Armenia.

'Survivor' feels like a Melfest reject from 10-15 years ago forgotten in G:son's old laptop that Armenia decided to buy on a clearance sale...

The song is lacking purpose, a call for action and melody and merit wise should not make the cut for the Final.

But...this is Armenia in the Semi - Final with the most friends/allies included and they start their campaign with 30-35 points in their pocket from just a handful of countries (Georgia, France, Greece, Israel) and need 15-20 more from the rest of the field to secure qualification.

Furthermore, they have the ideal running order slot at #5, the one that holds the best record of qualifications (PV only)  for the first half in producers' era (15/22) and in 15/16 countries Semi - Final line-ups (7/9). 

Coming after a sequence of weak entries as well will help their cause even more and for all these reasons, Armenia is a lock for the Final I reckon.

The Final is a different story and Armenia is ticking every box of an entry that will not stand a chance to do well with any of the two constituencies. Diaspora will be there to secure a result just out of the Bottom-5 and this is the realistic goal for them.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Armenia securing qualification and then getting lost/forgotten/used as a filler in the Final, finishing 18th thanks to their diaspora.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 20.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.002%

Best case scenario:

17th-20th

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 35-55

F: J: 20-35 - PV: 30-60 - Tot: 50-95

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Armenia qualify as a result of their diaspora's and friends' support?

You can hear my thoughts about Poland in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Australia

 

Milkshake Man - Go-Jo

Australia has taken a U-turn for their Eurovision '25 campaign trying to work something out for their Public vote shortcomings.

'Milkshake Man' had an impressive drop in odds when launched trading as low as high teens but then reality kicked in and drifted all the way to the '000s. 

The song is trying to balance between being a joke entry or a credible high energy fun song. It could go both ways and we have to wait for the staging to rate this one.

Australia does have a good connection with Juries and that might make their task a bit easier but I am not sure at what length the jurors will go with this one, having many similar entries of that genre. 

Being in the same Semi - Final with Malta and Finland might give Australia the boost they need if they stage their entry better. 

Qualifying to the Final is a certainty, belonging to the weakest part of both Semis. The Final is a different beast and there is a chance that they might get the 'No Rules' treatment if they miss to find the golden balance.

A mid-table result 13th-17th feels safe for the moment.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Cannot judge this one until I see it on stage so I will stick to 13th-17th .

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 37/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-0.2%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-5

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 70-100

F: J: 30-75 - PV: 50-125 - Tot: 80-200

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Australia a Top-10 contender or No Rules 2.0?

You can hear my thoughts about Australia in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Sweden

 

Bara Bada Bastu - KAJ

A Revolution happened indeed in Melfest '25 and KAJ will be the ones representing Sweden in Eurovision.

'Bara Bada Bastu' is the definition of a 'joke' entry tailored-made to have an appeal with all Eurovision demographics, being funny and slick enough to keep everyone happy and no-one  offended.

I do consider it a lock Top-2 with the Public vote, but I have not decided yet if it is the type of entry that could reach or surpass the 300 points threshold or it will have a Norway '19, Serbia '22 result. 

The main argument for my indecisiveness is that there many public vote magnets in its region (Finland, Estonia, even Norway) that would do not guarantee all the 12s and maybe some 10s there.

Additionally, I am not 100% certain that it will have the same appeal in some parts of Southern and Eastern Europe. It will get points there for sure but maybe not all will be top marks.

And finally, the most important reason of all. Sweden has branded themselves as a Jury oriented country and struggles traditionally with the Public. They have not received a single set of 12 Public vote points in the 20's despite having won and finished 4th in that span. 

For all these reasons a 250-290 points score feels closer to reality than a 325+ points score.

The hit or miss point for Sweden will be their jury appeal, where they will need to score a minimum of 175 points to keep themselves in contention without hoping for an abnormal Televote score.

The staging and vocals are there and jurors should be able to acknowledge and award them for that. They are a powerhouse as well and know all the tricks to get the points they need. The song is not divisive or aggressive to force jurors to blank them but there is still some uncertainty whether Juries will underestimate its artistic merit and treat it as joke that cannot award. 

I feel more comfortable estimating their Jury score in the 125-150 points region and I fear that this will not be enough to secure them the win.

They can still overperform with both constituencies but for the moment I prefer to take a more cautious approach.

I am 100% certain though that Sweden will finish in the Top-3 no matter what.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Sweden finishing Top-2 with the Public vote but coming a bit short with the Juries and finishing 3rd overall.

Televoting Potential: 9.5/10

Jury Potential: 7.5/10

Staging Potential: 9.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 10/10

Total: 43.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

10% - 20%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

4th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 140-175

F: J: 100-175 - PV: 225-300 - Tot: 325-475

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Sweden winning Eurovision the Finnish way?...

You can hear my thoughts about Sweden in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Portugal

 

Deslocado - NAPA

Portugal's Renaissance in Eurovision circle is taking a break this year in terms of successful results.

I do think that they missed the plot at one point during their national final with the jurors trying really hard to sabotage any entry that had some/any public vote potential.

As a result NAPA will represent Portugal this year, despite finishing 2nd in the Public vote and 4th with the Juries in Festival da Canção.

'Deslocadoº is about people leaving their homeland to go and live elsewhere and expresses their sorrows and nostalgia for back home. A universal message for sure but most probably will go unnoticed by the international audience.

In a 50-50 Semi - Final this entry could have been a surprise qualifier but I doubt they will have any luck now that they are performing right after Sweden. 

They will heavily rely on their diaspora to collect any points and they might get a few from countries like Spain, Switzerland but I am not confident that these will be high marks to reach the qualification threshold and let's not forget that Portugal traditionally struggles with the Public vote.

If a miracle happens and they qualify, they will get a few Jury points just to avoid Bottom-3.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Portugal finishing near the bottom of the Semi - Final receiving 15-20 points in total.

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 27/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Qualification to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-50

F: J: 20-45 - PV: 5-25 - Tot: 25-70

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Portugal doomed or their diaspora will pull a miracle to save them?

You can hear my thoughts about Portugal in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - San Marino

 

Tutta l'Italia - Gabry Ponte

There is not too much to comment on San Marino. I have to give them their flowers for their Machiavellian structured national final that takes turns on selecting either a big Italian name or an artist from abroad just to justify the fees they are charging for the foreigners to apply.

Gabry Ponte will be their representative, trying to bring some spark from San Remo, where Tutta l'Italia was the unofficial gig of the festival.

The problem is that San Remo wisely used these juicy 10-15 seconds of the song that are actually uplifting and super catchy but the rest of the song is uninspiring at least and render the song a very long 3 minutes.

Additionally, a Eurovision entry staged with the DJ being the centre of attention has not worked very well and this is an extra reason to be cautious with San Marino's qualification odds. The last attempt of this genre was Austria '22 that failed spectacularly to qualify even though it was considered one of the favourites and Gabry Ponte was the writer of that entry...

Another fact to keep in mind is that we have 3 Italian entries in the Semi - Final (Italy, San Marino, Estonia) and this is the weakest of all. 

There is still hope for San Marino to secure qualification but I would be very cautious with its odds. If they make it to the Final, 'Tutta l'Italia' is the main contender to finish last in the Jury vote and very close to the bottom, if not last place.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

San Marino is the definition of a borderline entry but my gut says that this does not have enough to secure qualification and might not even be close enough to that threshold. 13th in the Semi - Final.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 3/10

Momentum: 4/10

My Opinion: 3/10

Total: 17.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.000001%

Best case scenario:

Qualification to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 15-45

F: J: 0-10 - PV: 20-40 - Tot: 20-50

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could a 15-seconds song have enough traction to secure qualification?

You can hear my thoughts about San Marino in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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