Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Italy

 

Voglio Essere un Duro - Lucio Corsi

San Remo '25 was not the stronger edition of the last few years, but still had enough depth to provide a number of entries that could finish in Top-10 in Eurovision. 

Lucio Corsi was the pleasant surprise of the '25 edition coming out of nowhere to contend for the San Remo trophy. He finished second but Olly's rejection to represent Italy in Eurovision made Lucio's dream come true and become the Italian representative.

'Voglio Essere un Duro' is a beautiful piano ballad that could have been in the soundtrack of an indie film. A feelgood song with some beautiful lyrics that Italy should find a way to project them in different languages like they did back in '18 and finished Top-3 with the public vote. Less is better is the motto of the staging and this could work in a year where most countries are throwing the kitchen sink in the staging and structure of their songs.

Lucio Corsi is a very talented artist that can win the crowd with his warm personality. He is the definition of the guy from next door.  Italy does tick the jury boxes and has the potential to finish in the Top-5 with them, possibly a bit higher, and also secure a three digit score with the public vote that could be enough to propel them in the Top-5/6. Corsi overperformed in San Remo with the public beating the established names and surprised many people. The field in Eurovision is more stacked and there are more televote magnets that are basically non-existent in San Remo.

Italy has a great record of doing better than expected when it is not considered a favourite or an underdog. They did it back in '11 when they finished 2nd after winning the Juries when the majority expected them to finish outside the Top-10. They have done the same thing in '18, finishing 5th with a Top-3 public vote result and Mengoni in '23 was the most recent case, again projected to finish outside or near the Top-10 and he finished 4th. 

I do think that Italy's floor is 7th/8th and they have all the ingredients to work their way to Top-4/5 which will be a great result for them. Just a reminder that Italy has not finished lower than 7th since 2017 and no male Italian artist finished lower than 7th since their return to the Contest in 2011!

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Italy overperforming as usual when it is considered an underdog and finish in Top-5 doing well with both constituencies but a bit better with the Juries. If the perfect storm hits, Italy could become a serious dark horse. 

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 9/10

Total: 41.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1%-3%

Best case scenario:

Top-3

Worst case scenario:

Not in Top-10

Pre-Contest estimated points:

F: J: 150-250 - PV: 100-175 - Tot: 250-425

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Do you think that Italy is an underestimated dark horse or just a Top-10 contender?

You can hear my thoughts about Italy in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Belgium

 

Strobe Lights - Red Sebastian

Once upon a time (4-5 weeks ago) Belgium was leading the odds to win Eurovision!

Red Sebastian had an easy task winning Eurosong 25 but competition will be tougher in May. 

Belgium will be performing in Semi - Final 1 and the line-up that is shaping up implies that Belgium will have an arduous job to qualify first and then achieve a good result. 

'Strobe Lights' is a good 90's techno inspired track that focuses on Red Sebastian's vocal abilities. The staging in Eurosong 25 was ok. My main objection is that there is not much of a song there and both constitutions can pick that up easily and ignore it. 

There is a niche audience for this genre and there are better options in the Semi - Final and the whole line-up of the Contest, that could render 'Strobe Lights' irrelevant.

And this is where lies the other problem. Belgium, with the exception of Netherlands, does not have any strong allies in this Semi and could struggle getting high scores to reach the 45-50 points threshold that could secure qualification. It is the definition of a borderline entry that could go both ways. It is still sitting on my qualifiers list but that could change in a few weeks time.

If Red Sebastian qualifies to the Final, he does stand a chance to get some Jury love, mid-table to crack the Top-10, but would really need to grapple for some public vote points with all the packages that are on offer. 

And do not forget that Belgium has a long history of being overhyped/overestimated both by the fans and the bookies

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Belgium struggling to qualify to the Final and then get snubbed by both constituencies finishing 15th-22nd.

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 28.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.2%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Non qualification

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 35-60

F: J: 30-50 - PV: 20-40 - Tot: 50-90

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Do you think Belgium has the potential to stand out in the Final? Is it a certain qualifier?

You can hear my thoughts about Belgium in the 2nd episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Estonia

 

Espresso Macchiato - Tommy Cash

I have a hunch that 'Espresso Macchiato' will hunt Eurovision 2025 down for a long time. 

The hyping up of the entry has already started and the Tommy Cash PR machine has started applying the 'Europapa'/Joost textbook from last year, already charting in some countries and being the early talk of the town.

'Espresso Macchiato' is an entry that could go different directions in the next few months, but if there is one thing I can say with certainty is that Estonia will not win Eurovision!

I have not decided yet if the song is a joke/parody entry, a meta-joke or a statement/political comment about society. The videoclip and the staging in Eesti Laul made things more complicated. 

The song per se is a mockery of the Italian stereotypes sang in 'Italian', but it is just a vessel for Tommy Cash to sell his persona and is designed to dominate the Public vote.

He received Kaarija's endorsement, like Joost did last year, and the latter one endorsed him as well, trying to establish some short of 'The Bad Boys Club' in Eurovision that will have a representative each year trying to win the Public vote and turn the contest into a PR show.

The charting and streaming numbers so far suggest that 'Espresso Macchiato' has the same trajectory that 'Europapa' had last year. I have to admit that I was sceptical about 'Europapa' as well last year when it launched and remained sceptical throughout the season regarding its winning chances.

The same argument applies to 'Espresso Macchiato' and it is the Juries. No matter how well he will perform in Public vote, I still have my doubts about this, he will be tanked/penalised by Juries so hard that it will be out of contention early in the voting process. 

Netherlands last year received 58 Jury points before it was disqualified from the Final. And that was with a song that had a nice emotional instrumental part in the last part and was talking about unity and the pan-European values.

There is an argument floating around that if Tommy Cash is considered a favourite, the Juries somehow will give him a free pass and will boost its score, like they short of did with Finland in '23, but obviously that was not the case with Netherlands last year that was also considered a favourite. 

My projected Jury score for Estonia right now stands in the 25-50 points threshold and I don't think that it has enough/anything to push it into the three digit territory and this is where any discussion about the win ends once and for all.

Estonia's realistic goal, in my opinion, is a lower Top-10 result fuelled by a good Top-5/10 Public vote result. I do think that Tommy Cash's entry is divisive enough and the competition for the public vote will be harder for him, having other entries from the same region fighting for the top marks. My current projection is in the 75-175 point area, willing to re-access his numbers, but I do believe that 200-225 Public vote points is the maximum that he would get.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Tommy Cash trying to do any publicity stunt to grab public's attention and win the PV, but that not ending well. Bottom-5 with Juries and a decent Top-7/8 with the Public vote and a 9th place overall

Televoting Potential: 9/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 2/10

Total: 27/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 1%

Best case scenario:

Top-5

Worst case scenario:

16th-20th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 100-125

F: J: 25-50 - PV: 75-175 - Tot: 100-225

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Do you think Estonia can overcome the jury vote deficit?

You can hear my thoughts about Estonia in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Finland

 

Ich Komme - Erika Vikman

Finland once again has treated us with a national final of great quality and high standards!

Erika won by a landslide, as expected when the breakdown of the voting is 70% PV and 30% Juries. 

'Ich Komme' is a continuation of Finland's quest to win Eurovision through the Public Vote scoreboard. The staging of the UMK was stunning with three minutes full of sexual tension and climax.

Erika is a very competent and full of charisma artist and lifts the song with her personality and stage show. I reckon that this is Eurovision ready and could do really well in Basel. Knowing already half of the songs and having listened to a few more countries that have not decided yet, Finland is the country that has the most PV potential. This is a great starting point for them and could boost their chances for a great result in May. 

If the goal is to finish in Top-5, Finland has a chance to be in the mix. My biggest concern is their jury appeal. 'Cha cha cha' received 150 jury points mostly because it was considered a favourite and some jurors did not want to shut down Kaarija's path to victory.

I am not going to state that 'Ich komme' is 'Cha cha cha 2.0' but it does not carry the same weight nevertheless. The staging is full of sexual references that will not go well with the majority of the jurors and I struggle to see a path for a three digit score with them. And this is the reason that any discussion about Finland winning Eurovision is more of wishful thinking than a realistic scenario.

Last year I mentioned in my posts and in the podcast that having this type of entries in the line-up will make jurors more open and receptive, awarding the artistry and show that the televote magnets offer and render these entries more credible. Croatia '24 finished 3rd scoring 200+ points with them and Ireland finished 6th over the jury friendly entries from Portugal and Sweden.

However, the jury-oriented entries managed to get a wider support from the public vote, that helped widen the gap between the jury and public vote favourites. France and Switzerland finished 4th and 5th in the Public Vote respectively, both scoring 220+ points and both received points from all countries! And this is where Finland's path to be a Public Vote Top-3 gets tricky. 

Add to that the X-factor of Israel's public vote score and Finland could end up finishing anywhere between 6th - 10th which is where I think it will end up in the end. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Finland finishing 2nd in the Semi - Final, getting a decent running order for the Final and finishing 7th with a J: 50-80 pts - PV: 150-200 split. 

Televoting Potential: 9/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 38/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

1% - 3%

Best case scenario:

Top-4

Worst case scenario:

Right-hand side result in the Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 160-200

F: J: 50-80 - PV: 150-200 - Tot: 200-280

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Do you think Finland has enough to win Eurovision?

You can hear my thoughts about Finland in the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Greece

 

'Asteromata' - Klavdia

The first Greek national final after a decade had no surprises and Klavdia will represent Greece with 'Asteromata', an ethnic ballad that talks about the uprooting of the Pontian Greeks a century ago from the Ottoman Empire. Klavdia is a Pontian herself and the song is an homage to her ancestors. 

In all fairness 'Asteromata' has been the strongest entry of the rather poor in quality Ethnikos Telikos. When I first listened to the studio version my first thought was that I totally get why the Greek audience and jury will opt for this option but at the same time I could totally see Greece flopping in the Semi - Final.

Klavdia is a strong vocalist but I find the song lacking the energy and passion that should have lifted it further. I get the impression that certain elements of the instrumentation were added without a purpose just for ticking the 'what the Europeans would want to listen to a Greek ethnic ballad' boxes. 

Greece will have some hard work to do regarding the staging. This will be the deciding factor between qualification and elimination. The market realised during the national final that the Greek odds were highly overestimated and there was a correction with Greece currently trading around 50 when it was trading  on high teens a week ago. 

My personal opinion is that Greece will be a borderline qualifier or non-qualifier and if in the Final a low mid-table result (15th-20th) would be fair. 

I will start with the good news. Greece will be performing in the first part of the 2nd Semi - Final, away from most of the public vote magnets that will be in the 1st Semi - Final. In theory this is the weakest of the Semis.

Greece needs a staging that will create a call for action that 'Asteromata' is lacking. It could be a powerful choreography or some visuals.

Now the bad news and my personal red flags. I will start with the numbers that they do not add up for Greece.

There are 3 solid allies in the Semi - Final (Armenia, Georgia, Serbia) that have a 100% of voting for Greece in Semi - Finals, however only Armenia steadily provides high scores. Australia and Germany in theory have Greek diasporas that could boost the Greek score but I wouldn't expect any high scores from them either.

There is a significant list of countries that is consistently not voting for  Greece in the Semi - Finals (Lithuania 0/3, Ireland 0/1, Austria 1/6, Latvia 1/4, Finland 1/5, Israel 1/3) and will be performing in the same Semi. 

Greece's public vote points in the '16-'24 era all come from the Balkans and the Caucasus region with the exception of '21 and '22 that were tailored-made entries for the Western audiences. The only Greek ethnic entry that managed to get some points from the West was 'Zari' last year.

This is the main reason why Greece barely makes the Public Vote Top-10 in the Semis, when they make it ('16:14th, '17:9th, '18:10th, '19:9th, '21:7th, '22:8th, '23:13th, '24:5th).

If the qualifying threshold is in the 40-45 points region, Greece has a chance. If the threshold moves above the 50 points things will get tough.

The running order will be another issue that Greece might need to tackle. Having Montenegro in the same half, with a slow tempo entry and its last qualification dating back in 2015, we have to assume that they will get a favourable #7 or #8 in the running order and that could leave Greece buried in #2 or #3...

Greece's only path for qualification goes through the votes that will come from the Western front and this is the main reason I am currently leaning towards a borderline non-qualification. 

Greece is not getting points from there recently or consistently. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Greece finishing 11th in the Semi - Final, missing the Final for 3-4 points. If somehow they make the cut, I expect a 15th-20h ranking. Finishing third in the International jury of the National final in a poor line-up is another red flag regarding the jury potential...

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 6.5/10

Momentum: 4/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 29/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% or lower

Best case scenario:

Left-hand side result in Final

Worst case scenario:

Non- qualification

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 30-45

F: J: 20-50 - PV: 25-35 - Tot: 45-85

Eurovision 2025 - Ethnikos Telikos 2025 - Preview

 

We are finally entering to the main part of the National Final's season and what a way to start the previews.

ERT is organising its first National Final in ten years and I was expecting a stronger line-up, given the interest regarding Eurovision from the Greek audience.

We are heading for a two horse race with a clear? favourite (Klavdia). Klavdia's 'Asteromata' is the song that currently is leading the odds @1.50, and also the views in ERT's official channel in Youtube. An ethnic ballad with many traditional influences and a dedicated national audience. From the first listen I recognised the reasons why the Greek public and Jury would vote for it. It has in theory most of the elements that the European audience and juries would look for in a Greek entry. 

Ethnic entries have indeed brought Greece's best result in the '00s and early '10s, boosted by the support of the Greek diaspora. However, two ethnic entries were responsible for Greece's first two non-qualifications back in 2016 and 2018. 

I do believe that 'Asteromata' fails to connect with the audience. It needs an amazing staging and charisma from Klavdia to lift it on stage. This is a jury bait entry and having Greece performing in the first half of the second Semi - Final in May, the same half with Montenegro that will be heavily backed from EBU and producers to qualify, might bring an early running order somewhere in the #2 - #4 area which is never great news for a slow tempo entry. Add Armenia, Australia, Latvia that are expected to have strong entries and will perform in the same half and Greece's chances for qualification might be in trouble. 

'Oneiro mou' back in 2018 had a far better running order in the Semi - Final, did manage to finish 10th in Public Vote, however only 11/53 points came from countries that will be in the same SF this year...

The only alternative option for Eurovision will be Evangelia's 'Vale'. Given the hype and Evangelia's efforts to represent Greece for some time, I would expect a stronger entry from her as well. Too many elements mixed together, with some of them working while others don't. Tries to be anthemic but a bit basic with a forced effort to have some ethnic elements in the end as well.

It could offer Greece an easier path to qualify to the Final, but it would get lost in the Final, scoring enough points with friends and allies to secure a low-mid table result. 

I do believe that Greece's achievable goal for Eurovision 2025 is to qualify and then avoid a Bottom-5 result. I do not prefer or endorse any of the two entries, I just state that 'Vale' might have an easier path to the Final but 'Asteromata' could have a better appeal with Juries and finish mid-table.

Moving to the National Final analysis, there will be a 50-25-25 (Public vote - National/International jury) voting system. Klavdia is considered the favourite for tonight because in theory, is leading the Public vote and the National jury. Evangelia, on the other side, could finish first or second with the Public vote but is expected to finish third or fourth with the Juries.

There are a few things that need to be taken in consideration though. First of all Greece has not had a NF for a while and there are no recent patterns or trends that could enlighten us. We can guess/estimate that the Greek jury will opt for Klavdia. 

We have no idea how the International jury will vote. They could go for the two favourites or add BARBZ to the mix. 

Things with the Public vote might be more complicated than people might think. The Final will be broadcasted the same time with three main sports events, reducing the percentage of potential voters and things could be more marginal.

Odds as well, could mean nothing and last year proved it spectacularly. Isaak was trading @27 in Germany, Sarah Bonnici @15 in Malta, Windows95man @10 in Finland, Hera Bjork @ 10 in Iceland, Bambie Thug @3.00 in Ireland, Nebulossa @12 in Spain etc.

All the odds mentioned above were  available the day of or during the National Finals. The odds are based on fan polls and the views but do not mean anything when the time of the voting starts.

In my opinion there are only two options when it comes to betting in National Finals:

a. Go for the underdog.

b. No bet.

Klavdia is the favourite to win, however there is no value in the available odds. I have taken a small bet on Evangelia @5.00 in Betfair Exchange and I do think that there is still value in odds over 3.00-3.50. 

Hopefully there will be more liquidity tomorrow but I wouldn't recommend high stakes.

Good luck to Greece and may the best song wins!!!