The elephant in the room

 

The new season is on its way, the dust from Eurovision 2024 has now settled and is time for a late post-mortem/ launch of the new season post.

This article is data focused looking at the bigger picture. I will be sharing some thoughts about the season that is about to start as well.

Switzerland has become the second country after Sweden to win the Contest despite winning just the Jury vote. It has only happened once ('15 - Sweden) between '09 and '22, but suddenly we have had a back to back for Sweden and Switzerland.

Both jury scores (Switzerland 365 points, Sweden 340 points) are the highest Jury scores in history in percentage of the maximum points an entry can receive. It is more impressive when someone checks the scores the Public vote winners have received. Finland in '23 lost despite scoring 376 Public vote points and Switzerland won respectively Croatia, Israel and Ukraine the first trio ever to score +300 televote points in the same year! And who would have thought a few months ago that two out of these three +300 points would come from #2 and #6 (#5 actually) in the running order!

The change of the rules back in '23 has favored the public vote magnets to qualify and/or achieve high scores in Semi - Finals but most of them suffer in the Final, failing to distinguish themselves from the crowd. Jurors are not that keen to give their full support unless there is proof that there is some substance, credibility and authenticity in an entry. 

On the other hand, it is harder for a jury magnet to perform in a Semi - Final environment, but if they make it to the Final it is easier to achieve a great result. Estonia in '23 finished 10th in the Semi - Final and 8th in the Final thanks to the Juries and Belgium 8th in the Semi and 7th in the Final! In 2024, Portugal finished 8th in the Semi and achieved a Top-10 result in the Final and of course Switzerland! Finished 4th in the Semi and won the Contest. 

Another trend that is visible in the Jury vote is that the gap between the winner and the runner-up is very big. Sweden in '23 had almost a double score (340 - 177) versus Israel that finished 2nd and Switzerland had a 147 points lead from France (365 vs 218). The threshold for the 2nd and 3rd place in the Jury vote is usually 260-220 points but has not happened in the last two years. 

Will the 'Jury winner wins the Contest' trend continue in 2025?

I do think that the rule will keep boosting the Jury focused entries and will be guaranteeing Top-2/3 results for the Jury winner but things do evolve and there are a few arguments supporting that the  scores will be more balanced.

'Tattoo' and 'The Code' are both great entries but there were lacking tough competition in their field. 'Due vite' and 'Mon Amour' were the only entries that could be considered jury magnets and both missed the 225-250 points threshold. The main reason is that Sweden and Switzerland ended up sweeping all the 12s and 10s leaving no room for the others. 'Tattoo' received 15 sets of 12 points and 8 sets of 10s (23/36 countries) and 'The Code' received 22 sets of 12s and 6 sets of 10s (28/36 countries). Add to that the half dozen 12s that end up in friends and neighbors every year and things become more difficult.

I cannot predict if we will have an entry that could replicate these scores with the Juries in 2025 (Mans?), however I can predict that we will have more entries in the 230-260 Jury points threshold. Jurors are gradually adapting to the trends and do recognize the artistry and the authenticity in entries like they have never done in the past.

'Cha Cha Cha' received 150 points and it was considered the absolute maximum he could get for this type of  entry. In 2024 ' Rim Tim Tagi Dim' scored 210 points finishing 3rd, above Italy that many considered a potential Jury winner. At the same time 'Doomsday Blue' scored 142 points finishing 6th, above Portugal and Sweden and very close to Ukraine and Italy. A few years ago it would be unthinkable for an entry like this one to be even close to a three digit score.

That means that we will be seeing more mixed genre/ out of the box entries that will be aiming for high scores with both constituencies and the more of this type of entries we have, the more the jurors will become less strict/ hesitant to vote for them. 

The fact that the Jury winners of the last two editions won the Contest raised some concerns that the audience will lose interest if the Juries decide the winner year after year. There is a point there, however, there is a simpler explanation for this outcome.

The elephant in the room...

And of course the elephant in the room is Ukraine's and Israel's public vote scores and the ways they are distorting the big picture and are causing headaches to EBU, the national broadcasters and the public. 

Ukraine since the break-out of the war in '22, has received 935 Public vote points out of maximum 1380 available points. That means that Ukraine has gotten an average of 8.13 points from every country voted in the last three years! In that same span, Ukraine got 39 sets of 12s out of the 115 available! Their result back in '23 implied that they still had some traction with the public vote and that they would have inflated numbers in the future editions and their '24 result proved the theory was right. They have amassed 307 points performing second in the running order!

I do believe that Ukraine was the reason behind the addition of the Producers' choice to decide the running order of the Final. EBU tried to minimize the Ukrainian effect and has sent a very strong message to them that they do not wish another political Ukrainian victory in the near future. 

Things got more complicated last year when Israel, also involved in a war, decided to use Eurovision to promote their agenda. They ended up 2nd in the public vote with 323 points and receiving 15 sets of 12s leaving some room only for Croatia to grab the rest of the 12s available.

Ukraine and Israel combined received 630 Public vote points, which were 28.5% of all available points! Both nations have confirmed their return for Eurovision 2025 and we are heading for a similar result on that end. 

Just to give you an idea of how much these two are skewing the voting result here is the list of the number of countries that have received at least one set of 12 points from the public in the split vote era

2016: 13 

2017: 13

2018: 16

2019: 15

2021: 13

2022: 8

2023: 12

2024: 10 

Eurovision '22 and '24 were the only editions we have had with only 3 countries receiving more than a set of 12s from the public ('22: Ukraine 28, Serbia 5, Moldova 2 - '24: Israel 15, Croatia 9, Ukraine 7) and the third lowest is '23 with 6 nations (Finland 18, Ukraine/Israel 4, Italy/Moldova/Armenia 2).

The new reality is that Ukraine, Israel and the Televote winner get the majority of 12s, half a dozen of countries exchange 12s between them and the rest of the field is fighting for the remaining two-three 12s left on the table. 

In my opinion, here lies the biggest threat for Eurovision's future and something needs to be done so that the audience will not lose interest. 

There have been heated discussions on X that EBU should change the split percentage from 50/50 to 60/40 favoring the public vote winner, but under the current circumstances that would boost further the already boosted Ukrainian and Israeli scores and this would be a nightmare scenario for EBU, fans and broadcasters.

An easy fix for EBU could be to reduce the maximum number of votes a person has. The threshold is currently at 20 but there are two problems that could emerge from there. The most important one is the loss of revenue that is vital for EBU and the producers. The other problem is that there wouldn't be a significant change in the final outcome even if people could vote just once instead of twenty times. You could have a decrease on the percentage of votes Ukraine or Israel would get, but would still get enough votes to get the high scores. It doesn't matter if instead of 25% of the televotes, you get 10%, a long as the second best gets 9.9%. That method would also lead to less countries getting the high scores.

There is a slightly more complicated fix that could help to bring some balance back and that would be to ask the app users to vote like the jurors giving points from 1-12 and use these as part of the public vote. I am not sure though that there will be enough time to amass all the points and get a result on time, unless the voting is open a day before the Final.

I do have a feeling that EBU will opt for a different option though and that could be the introduction of a demographic/demoscopic jury that could count for the 33% of the voting. That way, there would be a 34/33/33 split with the demographic being the one balancing the inconsistencies between the other two and produce a result that would be fairer. It does worth a try and could be kept in place for as long as the political agendas try to overtake the reigns of the Contest. The extra voting would make things more interesting during the voting and could shake things up a bit.

The fact is that there is not a voting system that is perfect and EBU has been open to changes in order to balance things and I reckon that this is the direction they need to take to prevent the further highjack of the public vote and broadcasters opting out of the Contest or going all radical to secure some votes.

If no changes are made for Eurovision 2025, I do expect the jurors to be the deciding factors again, downvoting both Israel and Ukraine like they did with Israel last year. And that means that we will be a heading a third straight win for the Jury winner...

 

There's no Going Back! (Meow)

 

This has been the wildest week in Eurovision history for sure. 

The last 48hrs have been the absolute madness and there hasn't been a single hour without a new drama unfolding.

Everything started in Thursday night, just after the finish of Semi - Final 2 and the accidental release of the 'partial'? Italian televote where Israel was land sliding the win.

There was a snowball effect with Israel's price crashing from mid 40s to 4s-5s making Israel the second favorite to win after Croatia.

And then there was another drama unfolding yesterday with the Dutch representative Joost allegedly attacking an EBU employee and just a few hours ago it was decided that Netherlands will not be participating in the Eurovision Grand Final reducing the lineup to twenty five entries. 

Netherlands will be able to vote though, like Serbia and Montenegro did back in 2006. 

In between them, there was the decision for the Running Order of the Final and I do reckon we have witnessed an intervention from EBU to make sure that two things will not be happening tonight:

1. Israel doesn't win and

2. Ukraine does not win either.

Israel got the Malta '21 treatment given #6 and Ukraine got the death slot #2, something that has never happened to a contender in the past. Netherlands was also sacrificed at #5 to reduce the Israeli public somehow but Joost had other plans. The message is we sacrifice the recent winners and give the contenders that have not won for a while the chance to win.

The biggest winners were Croatia #22 now, Switzerland #20 and France #24. Croatia got the most favorable slot just a few spots before the closing which is the optimal place to be and Switzerland is coming first after a not so strong part of the Final. France has the latest draw of all to boost a bit its public vote score where it needs help.

Baby Lasagna had the underdog label for the whole season but he was transformed in stage to a powerful character that can carry the stadium and the viewers with him. The public loves him and I reckon that the televoters and the pure fans of the Contest will unite under his umbrella to save the Contest from the unthinkable that would have been an Israeli win this year.

EBU is trying everything in its power to help him win as well and a Croatian win could signal the return of some Balkan countries back in the Contest, now that the tank is getting empty.

Nemo has been remarkable on stage delivering a faultless performance. He is the most probable Jury winner from last night and the audience poll in the stadium suggested that his public vote appeal is bigger than the one the market suggested, something that I have highlighted in my contender's analysis some time ago.

It all comes down to how the public will react to the possibility of an Israeli win and if they will split the votes between Croatia and Switzerland or will sacrifice some votes to support Croatia. Switzerland is not chanceless yet and could be close to Croatia.

Netherlands' absence might send some regional public votes his way though. 

Israel was always the x factor and it is very surprising that the market was caught off guard  with the fear of missing out spreading fast since Thursday night. 

There was always the speculation that the Israeli public vote would be really high because of the diaspora and pro-Israeli supporters and they have played the 'victim' card really nice. We still do not know the extent of this, but there will be jurors that will blank this one to make sure that they will not win. 

These are the three contenders for tonight in my opinion and it could a close race. There was this narrative floating around the whole season that we will end up with a winner in the 400-450 points threshold. 

Many analyses out there were suggesting that this is the most possible outcome, however with everything that has happened in the last few days, I do expect the opposite. 

My prediction is that we will have a Top-2 in the 500+ close to 600 points area with a third entry way over the 400 points with the rest of the pack following from distance.

Here is my breakdown for tonight and some thoughts about how the night could evolve

1. Croatia

Estimated Points: 545-600 (Tv: 320-350 - Juries: 225-250)

There was the notion that Croatia would struggle with Juries but Baby Lasagna was more than strong last week and a Top-3 there is more than possible, especially now that some Juries will back him to prevent Israel winning.

Anything above 175 points could be enough.

Metrics to watch out: Croatia needs a 75-100 points headstart from Israel and be less than 100 points behind Switzerland to secure the win.

2. Switzerland

Estimated Points: 520 - 560 (Tv: 240-260 - Juries: 280-300)

Metrics to watch out: It all depends on how high Switzerland can go with the Public vote and how big will be their lead with the Juries. Could be the deciding factor for Israel's loss if the Jury score reaches the 300 points threshold leaving a breathing space to them and /or Croatia. 

If they can reach the 325 threshold, they can actually win.

Nemo does deserve to finish up there and Top-3 is a lock in my opinion. 

3. Israel

Estimated Points: 390 - 440 (Tv: 320-350 - Juries: 60-80)

Performing at #5 suggests that their potential public vote lead is controllable. I do think that their televote estimation is the worst case scenario and I do think that the Juries will try to balance it.

If they end up with the win, EBU will be left with a very damaged product for the '25 edition and Pandora's box will be open. 

Metrics to watch out: 100-125 jury points and people will start sweating, 150+ and Israel should be considered the winner. Assuming that their Jury result will be low, we will know their televote score quite early.

4. France

Estimated Points: 320 - 375 (Tv: 100-125 - Juries: 220-250)

Metrics to watch out: Slimane relies on his jury score to secure a Top-4/5 result and I do think he will be there in the end.

5. Ukraine

Estimated Points: 310 - 360 (Tv: 190-220 - Juries: 120-140)

Ukraine has been the major victim of the running order but getting a third political win in the last eight years would not be fair for the other participants. 

Could have been a Top-3 contender if later in the draw, and there is a minor chance this still happens if the diaspora backs them. Top-5 should be considered a safe bet.

Metrics to watch out: This will be a case study for the power of the Ukrainian diaspora and how strong that diaspora is in terms of affecting the public vote results. 

6. Italy 

Estimated Points: 250-300 (Tv: 100-125 - Juries: 150-175)

Italy got a running order in the middle, far away from the other contenders but could also be the entry that will suffer the most from the polarized voting tonight.

Italy could potentially sneak in Top-5 but I reckon it is more probable to be a few places lower than higher from where I currently have them.

7. Ireland

Estimated Points: 210-250 (Tv: 170-190 - Juries: 40-60)

8. Greece 

Estimated Points: 190-235 (Tv: 110-135 - Juries: 80-100)

9. Portugal 

Estimated Points: 165-210 (Tv: 40-60 - Juries: 125-150)

10. Lithuania

Estimated Points: 160-200 (Tv: 100-120 - Juries: 60-80)

11. Sweden

Estimated Points: 130-175 (Tv: 30-50 - Juries: 100-125)

12. Latvia 

Estimated Points: 120-165 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 100-125)

13. UK

Estimated Points: 100-140 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 80-100)

14. Serbia

Estimated Points: 100-140 (Tv: 30-50 - Juries: 70-90)

15. Georgia

Estimated Points: 85-125 (Tv: 60-80 - Juries: 25-45)

16. Armenia

Estimated Points: 60-100 (Tv: 40-60 - Juries: 20-40)

17. Estonia

Estimated Points: 55-90 (Tv: 50-75 - Juries: 5-15)

18. Norway

Estimated Points: 40-80 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 20-40)

19. Spain

Estimated Points: 35-75 (Tv: 15-35 - Juries: 20-40)

20. Cyprus

Estimated Points: 45-70 (Tv: 20-30 - Juries: 25-40)

21. Luxembourg

Estimated Points: 30-70 (Tv: 10-30 - Juries: 20-40)

22. Germany

Estimated Points: 30-65 (Tv: 5-20 - Juries: 25-45)

23. Slovenia

Estimated Points: 25-60 (Tv: 5-20 - Juries: 20-40)

24. Finland

Estimated Points: 10-40 (Tv: 10-30 - Juries: 0-10)

25. Austria

Estimated Points: 5-25 (Tv: 5-15 - Juries: 0-10)

Before getting to my betting tips for tonight a few words about my personal book this season. 

Croatia or Switzerland winning the Contest will be enough to have my most profitable Eurovision season ever, backing them both from the early days of their releases. 

I have a position on Israel just to break even in case they win, having already cashed out the biggest part of my position there.

I have neither backed or laid Italy and Ukraine throughout the season and had a small amount on Netherlands being very happy with that strategy coming with a small amount of dead money the night of the Final. 

I have also backed Croatia in the Top-3/4 market earlier this month and last month in longer odds and have also France in Top-4/5 markets.

Portugal, Greece and Lithuania are my calls for the Top-10 market and have some positions in the Top-15 on Latvia, Georgia, Portugal and UK, all the 2.50-4.50 area.

For the last place contention I have Austria and Luxembourg as my main contenders again at double digit odds.

And now the time you were waiting for...The tips for tonight. My Semi - Final bets have been subpar this year, chasing some values there that did not turn into profit. My only remorse is that I should have had Belgium NQ there as well, but I did mention that it was on my book and also tweeted during the show so I do hope that some of you followed that as well.

Having 0 units returned from the Semi - Finals I have 800 units available for the Final. 

I am not tipping Croatia, currently at 1.96 just because I think there is no real value there at the moment, but I do think this is our Winner tonight and I wish you have backed him earlier in the season.

In my betting resolution for this year, I have mentioned that I am aiming for the accuracy this year so I will keep my promise and just make three suggestions for tonight 

Portugal To Finish in Top-15 @ 2.60 (Bf Exchange) x 300 units

Greece To Finish in Top-10 @ 1.83 (Bf Exchange) x 300 units

Top-Nordic Sweden @ 2.06 (Bf Exchange) x 150 units

 and will add 50 units for my fun bets

Austria To Finish Last @ 19.50 (Bf Exchange) x 25 units

Portugal to Finish in Top-10 @ 7.60 (Bf Exchange) x 25 units

Good luck with your bets tonight. I do hope that will find my post useful for the long night that is ahead of us.

I wish I could have given you more insight and suggestions about bets but it has been crazy the last few days trying to catch up with all the dramas unfolding.

I will be active on X later tonight to comment on the results and of course, don't forget to listen to the latest episode of Talk About Things with Panos and Matt.

Finding Nemo...

 

Semi - Final 1 belongs to the past with a few 'surprise' results there.

The biggest surprise of all was Slovenia that managed to qualify almost out of nowhere. I reckon that we did have a close race for the #9-#12 spots and Slovenia scraped through by a very small margin.

There wasn't a shocker non qualifier. Poland could be considered a surprise result but in reality it wasn't. This has been the weakest entry vocally in the whole lineup and the Polish diaspora decided not to support their entry. It has happened again in the past, I did mention it to my SF-1 analysis but decided not to bet against them.

Serbia was always a borderline entry and could have gone either way. Still happy with my bet against them because there was value (2.48 for a coin toss). Here is my analysis for SF-1 for those who missed it and now is time to focus on tonight's outcome.

This is a tougher Semi - Final to crack down with thirteen entries that still stand a chance to qualify. The difference in quality between the two Semi - Finals is enormous with Semi - Final 2 carrying 7-8 potential Top-10 entries in its lineup so the qualification bar is set really high for tonight and no mistakes are allowed.

Malta is opening the Semi and the staging has been improved very much. It does work as a show opener, however the comparisons with 'SloMo' and 'Unicorn' choreos will be unavoidable and Malta is traditionally suffering with the Public vote. 

Malta not to qualify over 1.30 is fair and could be used for a combo bet.

Albania has taken out anything that reminded of Albania song and stage wise when their target group is the Albanian diaspora. Add the death slot and you have the perfect coctail for disaster tonight. 

Having three straight qualifiers coming from #2 when there were only two in ten years until the SF-2 last year is a big ask. 

I will do the same thing I did with Poland in SF-1 and leave Albania alone just because there is no point of taking a risk for a non qualification at 1.25 and I have no motive or data to back them.

Greece is sailing to the Final but is a missed opportunity in my opinion. They have taken many risks this year with 'Zari' and I am delighted that they did, but the staging is very underwhelming. Many ideas thrown at the same time with the hope that they could work all together but they don't. 

I find the staging very basic with a choreo we have seen many times in the past. 

I mentioned to the podcast last night something that could potentially hurt Greece's result tonight. Tonight there is a football game in Greece with Olympiakos playing against Aston Villa to qualify to the Europa Conference League final. It could be the first time that a Greek team will play in a football European Final since 1970! 

I do expect the majority of diaspora and the majority of the Greek audience in Greece as well to watch that game tonight instead of the Semi - Final. There is a big chance for the Greek score tonight to be lower of what it could have been.

Add to that the fact that Marina is under the weather and Switzerland is performing after them and there are enough reasons to oppose a good result for Greece in Semi - Final.

For those who bet in Greece and Cyprus stoiximan offers 

Greece not to finish in SF Top-3 @1.60 and Greece not to finish in SF Top-5 @2.67.

There is huge value there and the Top-5 would have been my main bet for tonight if my tips were for Greece only.

Switzerland is coming for win on Saturday but they do want to make a statement tonight as well. Nemo is delivering a faultless performance running and jumping around on stage without missing any notes and the crowd loves it. 

Last night they unexpectedly won the audience poll by a vote against Netherlands and that was a very good sign for Saturday night's Public vote appeal.

To win the Semi - Final at 4.50 is a bit short but would be tempted to place a fun bet later tonight if these odds drift to the 6.00+ area.

Czechia is next and I have tp admit that Aiko has been probably the biggest improvement of the whole season. One of the few revamps that is actually working and a very powerful staging that serves the purpose of the song. 

The current odds for qualification are at 4.60 and I would not try to change someone's mind if they are backing Czechia but they are not in my book for tonight.

I will not be surprised if they make it.

Austria has been circled as a potential non qualifier candidate since the first time I heard the song and two months after we are heading to that direction. 

Kaleen performing after Slimane is one of the biggest downgrades in vocal abilities in the whole contest. Like Matt mentioned in the podcast, you can see the fear in her eyes while performing and she does look very vulnerable to be honest. 

Austria is building a tradition in the last few years overhyping their entries that in the end fail or underperform on stage and the same will happen tonight.

'We Will Rave' has everything lined-up to become Halo 2.0 and this will be my main bet for tonight. Currently Austria not to qualify trades in the 2.75-3.00 area. I got it as high as 6.50 a few weeks ago and I do think it will be odds on later tonight.

Denmark is my candidate for the last place tonight. Saba was very shaky yesterday from the very first verse and there are parts of the song that she still cannot sing. 

The song is radio friendly but does not work in a contest and Denmark's recent bad track record will continue.

Denmark not to qualify at 1.30-1.35 could be used in a NQ combo

Armenia was in the conversation for the Final's Top-10 a few weeks ago but the rehearsals yesterday left me cold. I expected the crowd to be carried away and create a party atmosphere but that was clearly not the case. 

They have enough friends and allies to qualify easily but not sure about their impact on Saturday. 

Again for those betting in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers Armenia not to Finish in SF-2 Top-5 at 2.02 and I have taken that bet personally.

Latvia picked in late January when things were still foggy in most countries and since then they are spiraling from a Top-10 candidate to a 100% non qualifying entry. 

The song is not bad but the staging and Dons denial to stare at the camera are the main reasons Latvia will prolong its non qualifying streak.

San Marino was the biggest surprise yesterday having one of the most refreshing and full of energy staging. 

Coming after Spain, is a great reminder for the Spanish audience to support Megara and guarantee their 12 points. Add a few more from Italy's public vote as well and I find no reason San Marino cannot find the 30-35 points missing for the qualification threshold. 

I have been backing them for a while and did the same yesterday as well during their rehearsal. 

San Marino to qualify at 3.25 in Betfair Exchange will be my other tip for tonight and there is still value there.

Georgia has killed any conversation for a potential failure since the pre-parties and Nutsa is oozing energy on stage. She is a strong performer and the song might be a bit generic but applies all the fundamentals great and will be sailing to the Final. No value in current odds though.

Belgium the other strong candidate for a shocker non qualification. I have been backing that since the pre-parties and the running order does not help them at all.

Coming after San Marino and Georgia and before Estonia and Italy could massively hurt its chances being the only slow tempo song.

Mustii's egocentricity and aggressiveness does not help its cause either. The song it has enough quality to qualify and for that reason I will only tip it on a fun bet combo.

Estonia is much slicker than it used to be in its national final and they are sailing to the Final. This is by far the best odds on value for a qualifier. 

Estonia to qualify at 1.41 in Betfair exchange is a value bet.

Israel has a simple but effective staging and is jury oriented, knowing that their diaspora will back them either way. There were many boos in the evening but not enough to disrupt the performance. 

This is an extra motive for their diaspora to support them. There is no value in any bet for them being the biggest unknown in this season.

Norway is there offering a great spectacle that goes unnoticed for the whole season and I tend to believe that I belong to the small minority that likes this one. 

Stoiximan has a great value bet that I have already taken. 

Norway to score 0-65 points in the SF @13 

Netherlands is a great way to close the show and Joost is excellent on stage. The have taken 100% the fun direction and have admitted that they have no winning ambitions. 

I was expecting a better result in the audience poll that did not come and still expect them to win tonight but the 300+ points in Public vote that many were/are expecting on Saturday feels now just wishful thinking and not something that could happen. 

The Dutch have overhyped their entry and the bar was raised too high for what their entry was.

Still a candidate for the Top-5 in the Final though.

And now my prediction for the Semi -Final is

1. Netherlands 160-180pts

2. Switzerland 150-170

3. Israel 100-120

4. Georgia 90-110

5. Estonia 80-100

6. Greece 60-80

7. Armenia 55-75

8. Norway 50-70

9. San Marino 40-60

10. Belgium 30-50

11. Czechia 25-45

12. Albania 20-40

13. Austria 15-35

14. Latvia 10-30

15. Malta 10-25

16. Denmark 5-20

I am very confident for my Top-8 and I do think that San Marino will also make the cut but not sure at all about Belgium.

And now time for my betting tips.

There will be three in total, with two main bets and a fun bet as well

Austria lay @ 1.36 (NQ approx 4.05) in Betfair Exchange x 50 units

San Marino to Qualify @ 3.20 Betfair Exchange x 45 units

Austria and Belgium not to Qualify combo @13.5 (Betfair sportsbook) x 5 units

Any of the three bets would give me a great return and I am happy with the value each of these bets holds.

Good luck with your bets tonight and stay tunned for a new 'Talk About Things' episode tomorrow about the running order.

 

Crown Rim Tim Tagi Dim!

 

It is almost six months since the day we have heard the first song for the season and here we are! 

Semi - Final 1 is here to entertain us and the two halves feel like the yin and yang.

The first half is one of the stronger we ever had while the second one is one of the weakest ever.

We had the conversation throughout the season that the impossible would happen and we could have 7/7 qualifications from the first half, something that has never happened.

The market suggests that it will happen, but I am more optimistic with a 6/7. If there is justice, all seven should have qualified because the second half does not have more than three entries that deserve to be in the Final. 

So these are my thoughts for tonight.

Cyprus is sailing to the Final being the ideal opener. Its current odds are at 1.31 fair but with no value in my opinion.

Serbia has an entry that if in second half, would have easily qualified to the Final, but this is not an ordinary lineup and Serbia has everything against them. Very few allies and diaspora present in the Semi - Final, the death slot at #2. Since 2013 that we have the producers choosing the running order, there were only 3 entries that managed to be in the Public vote's Top-10 (Armenia x 2, Poland) both countries with big enough diaspora to back them and help them qualify. 

Add to that the fact that Serbia is qualifying with difficulty every year and I think the time for a non qualification has come after 2013, when they failed to qualify performing from the pimp slot. 

The first half of 'Ramonda' is taking a while to lift off and that might cost them. Having the three direct qualifiers also performing prolongs the duration of the Semi - Final as well and Serbia will be forgotten by the time we reach the last entry.

I have been laying Serbia since the running order was decided and this will be my main bet for tonight. The lay is currently at 1.67 (NQ 2.48). I will be happy if they qualify but for all the reasons mentioned above the non qualification is the value bet.

Lithuania will be battling for a spot in the Top-3 of the Semi - Final currently at 2.76 in the exchange market. There is a precedent in Semi - Final 2 back in 2018 (Public vote only) where all three entries finishing in Top-3 came from the first half. I will not tip it but I do have it in my book. 

Ireland has produced one of the best theatrical three minutes we have ever seen in Eurovision. They have gone all in and that was the proper way to do it. Bambie Thug is a great performer and this will be the talk of the town in the next few days. The Irish are ready to go crazy and I could see this one trading in single odds if they get a second half draw. Of course Ireland is not winning Eurovision, but in a public vote only Semi - Final they could finish in Top-3 (1.70 Bf exchange).

I do find the odds a bit short but I have taken a different bet with Ireland included. 

For those betting in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers forecasts (1-2) for the Semi - Finals and the combination 1.Croatia - 2. Ireland is at 13!!! This could be a fun bet or a moderate bet, a low risk high rewards approach.

Ukraine is the first contender for the night and the market has not been impressed. The problem is that their staging is missing a story. There are beautiful shots that are not connected to each other and the two girls interact only in the last few seconds. Top-3 in the Semi is more or less secured but there is no value in my opinion. 

Poland is the weakest entry vocally in that first half and maybe the whole Semi- Final. The qualifying odds are very short but Poland has never had a problem being in Top-10 with the Public vote (only '21 missed the Top-10) and even though I am tempted, I will leave Luna alone.

I would not be surprised whatever the outcome is tonight.

Croatia was trading at 5+ just a week ago and currently is trading at 2.32! I have been backing Croatia since late January so I am more than happy with my position on them. Winning the Semi - Final at 1.32 feels short but there is no chance someone else is winning tonight.

Baby Lasagna is improving every time he is on stage and the staging has improved a lot since Dora two and a half months ago. 

The crowds' reactions yesterday and the singalong in the second part along with the closing seconds are the only winning vibes we have seen so far this year.

Iceland coming after Croatia I reckon is EBU's payback time for what happened in Iceland's national final and a subtle way to send a message for the future. The weakest entry of all this year by far.

Slovenia has gradually lost ground and the staging has not added anything to help their cause. Raiven is vocally excellent but these are three very long minutes in a very underwhelming part of the Semi - Final and only Serbia and Croatia there to secure them 12-18 points. They will need more than 45-50 to feel safe and I struggle to see where they will come from. My average lay on them is at 1.94 but there is no value there currently.

Finland it is what it is and I do believe that it will qualify but I don't think it will do particularly well. It is fun but does not really offer a reason for someone to vote for it. If we had the 50/50 system I would be tempted to oppose it but there is no reason to do it now.

Moldova is the biggest riser since yesterday and not only is back in the qualification race but I do believe that it will qualify, favored by the four entries coming before it. It gives them credibility, the staging is simple but effective and Natalia's vocal abilities do stand out. It is trading at 5 to qualify in various betting companies and this is the best value odds someone can find tonight. 

The fair odds should have been at 2.50-2.75 so I am happy to lose that bet everyday. This will be the second tip for tonight.

Azerbaijan does not have a bad song but there is no reason for someone to vote for them. Last place in the Semi - Final could happen.

Australia has a simple but beautiful staging but I am not sure the casual viewers will vote an aboriginal song and how relevant could that be for Eurovision. The last thirty seconds are very shaky as well. Australia is a borderline by definition and could go both ways. I am not tipping something here but I do think that Moldova will be the one to claim that last ticket.

Portugal has the best minimalistic staging of all entries and it does suit their entry 100%. A few weeks ago were trading at odds on and currently their qualifications odds are at 1.28. A bit short for my taste.

For the bettors in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers  a Head to head versus Slovenia at 1.66. This could be used to maximize the qualification value.

Luxembourg will be closing the Semi - Final and there are multiple mentions during the show about their return after 31 years. Sailing to the Final.

For the bettors in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers the Top-5 in Semi - Final at 2.35 and there is definitely value there.

My classification for tonight is the following

1. Croatia 140-160 pts

2. Ireland 110-130 pts

3. Ukraine 100-120 pts

4. Lithuania 90-110

5. Luxembourg 70-90

6. Finland 60-80

7. Cyprus 55-75

8. Poland 50-70

9. Portugal 50-65

10. Moldova 45-65

11. Serbia 35-55

12. Australia 30-50

13. Slovenia 25-45

14. Azerbaijan 15-35

15. Iceland 0-10

I do think that the first nine entries are more or less certain qualifiers and the tenth spot will be a battle between Moldova, Serbia and Australia. 

And now the fun time!! My tips for the Semi - Final. You can read my betting resolution for 2024 here.

I have 1000 units to invest, split in 100 units per Semi - Final and 800 units for the Final. The settled units from Semis could be used again in Semi 2 and/or Final. 

I have decided to minimize my bets and aim for accuracy this year so there will be only two tips for Semi - Final 1

Serbia lay @ 1.67 (NQ 2.48) x 75 units

Moldova to qualify @ 5.00 (multiple companies) x 25 units

Good luck to your bets tonight! I will be active in X after the Semi - Final to comment on the results.

Semi - Final 1 - Dress rehearsal

 

Here we are then! The first Dress Rehearsal for the Semi -Final 1 is coming to an end in a few minutes. 

SVT has prepared a beautiful show and there are many familiar faces opening the Semi - Final. 

The postcards start with two former entries of each country and that might be a problem with some nations that have not been that successful in the recent past.

But is time to have a look to the contestants.

Cyprus is a great choice for the opening act. The dark background does create a beautiful contrast with Silia's and dancers' white clothes that represent innocence and youth. Silia is vocally fine and this is sailing to the Final.

Serbia has better camera angles than the ones that we saw last week but it is very dark in some parts with Teya Dora almost invincible. Similar staging to PZE with a few minor changes. The last minute with the ramonda flower rising from the rock is the moment. Could it be enough for them to qualify? Still puzzled with this one. 

Lithuania has a similar staging to the national final and it is slick. Lithuania still going under the radar for a Top-10 result imo. Very powerful.

Ireland is by far the moment of the Semi - Final. Bambie Thug is giving a theatrical show for the ages. Aggressive? Yes! Not everyone's cup of tea? Yes! But it works!!! Ireland is back in the Final and will be the talk of the town the next few days. A great bet that Ireland has taken and now is paying dividends! Bambie was out of breath by the end and the Crown the Witch moto at the background is the perfect closing for this three minute experience.

UK has a great staging as well, overly sensual but impressive at the same time. Juries will mark this one high for the staging concept but Olly was shaky at times. 

Ukraine has used the best part of their entry in the 30 seconds snippet that propelled their odds. The staging is beautiful but it feels a bit incoherent. Beautiful shots and ideas on stage that are missing a specific narrative and story. There is very little connection and interaction between the two girls. Ukraine should be among the contenders but is missing something in my opinion.

Poland have placed themselves in danger and this will be a great case study for the Polish diaspora. I do like the staging a lot but Luna's vocals were by far the weakest of the first half and maybe the whole Semi - Final. Sandwiched between Ukraine and Croatia will have a hard time tomorrow night.

Croatia. There was a problem with the stream and was able to watch just the last minute or so. What I have seen was a much improved version of the Dora staging with Baby Lasagna more confident and vocally fine. The pyros in the end gave the winning moment.

Iceland felt very irrelevant after Croatia and there is nothing Hera could do to turn this one into a qualifier. Simple but nice staging though.

Germany has turned their stage in a cozy living room with a fireplace but Isaak lacks energy in the first half. It gets better by the end but Germany has become relevant again for the last place conversation.

Slovenia recreated the atmosphere from their music video and Raiven is just stunning vocally but this is entry that could work in the 50/50 era and not in a public vote only Semi with Finland coming after them.

Finland has also kept the same concept they had in their national final and it is what it is. A fun three minutes that has nothing else to offer. Would love to oppose them to the qualifying market but don't think they will fail to qualify.

Moldova has been the pleasant surprise of the day and they are back to fight for one of the remaining tickets of the Final. a beautiful backdrop and Natalia's voice make Moldova feel like a credible and quality entry coming after Finland. A huge improvement.

Sweden looks amazing and slick and the boys are getting better as well. Not my cup of tea but I do recognize the staging quality there. This is a serious Top-10 contender for the Final even from the opening slot.

Azerbaijan has a very AI staging that has zero connection to the song, trying to replicate the effectiveness of their '19 gimmick with the robot. There is no reason for someone to pick up the phone and vote for this one.

Australia has many allies in the Semi - Final and a great running order but I felt that their staging was very underwhelming and a tad boring. I have moved them to my non qualifiers list but have not made my mind 100% yet.

Portugal has opted for a minimalistic staging that does work for iOLANDA. The odds for qualification are short but there is no way they are missing the Final.

Luxembourg will be back in the Semi - Final after 31 years! This is a fact. Simple but effective staging and Tali with a more girlie look that suits her better.

Later tonight there will be a new 'Talk About Things' episode talking about tonight's action and of course tomorrow there will be the traditional post with the betting tips for Semi - Final 1.

The last post before everything goes back to zero

 

It is always funny to go back to the previous years and read the posts before and after the Semi - Finals.

Some of the posts have aged nicely like a fine wine while others feel more like a sci-fi film screenplay.

So let's have a look of what happened last week and if there are any changes in the market.

Croatia is the new market leader that emerged during last week, taking back the reigns from Switzerland. 

Rehearsals were fine and what we have seen is a polished version of the Dora staging with Baby Lasagna feeling more comfortable on stage.

I still think that the underdog narrative suits him better, but this could also apply to Croatia that has not won the Contest yet as an independent nation.

Netherlands' rehearsals have solidified Croatia as the most probable public vote winner and there is the notion that Croatia will be the first country after the neighboring trio of France, Switzerland and Italy in the jury voting.

My estimation for Croatia is in the 175-200 threshold that could be more than enough to secure the win.

Switzerland entered the rehearsals as the big favorite and after a few photos and a 30 seconds snippet the verdict was that it feels a bit chaotic and the dress selection is not ideal. I do agree with the second part but need to see the full three minutes to decide on this one.

Losing momentum after the rehearsals have started is not a great sign and remains to be seen if the Swiss have still a hidden ace up their sleeves.

They have also lost their momentum as the probable Jury winner with France being their main rival and this does not look good either.

Ukraine is the biggest 'winner' of last week reminding people that if there is one country that knows how to properly stage their entries and get the maximum out of them is Ukraine.

Ukraine has established their position somewhere in Top-4 and remains to be seen how high they can reach.

I am still very skeptical about their winning path. I currently have them 5th-6th (165-125 pts) with the Juries and 3rd-4th (215-185 pts) with the public vote.

There is the narrative about the diaspora that propelled an average song last year to finish sixth in the end and 'Teresa & Maria' is more powerful and could finish higher.

I do agree and it will finish higher, however I still have my doubts. I do think that Ukraine could maybe finish  second in the public vote with approximately 250 pts but Juries will keep them short enough from the first place. 

They really need to boost their public vote score to have a chance.

Italy is trying, unsuccessfully so far, to create a momentum. Every time that they have gained some traction, something emerges and they linger around the fourth place.

They gained a momentum after Netherlands fell short and next day Ukraine came to take the spot. My objection about Italy, and I might be wrong, is that it feels like the perfect default winner: an entry that cannot win any constituency but could be near the top with both. 

That might be the case, but at the same time the Jury top implies that we will have a Top-3 between 200-250 points and Italy is the least secured of the leading trio to finish there. 

The same applies to the public vote. Croatia and Ukraine are a step ahead of them, Netherlands has lost some steam but their televote will still be impressive and big enough to pass Italy and we also have the x factors like Israel, Switzerland and Greece that could move Italy further down. 

What we have seen in the 30 seconds snippet is not worrying of course but also has not elevated the entry somehow to consider them either a Jury or Public vote winner.

The fact that Switzerland is still above them in odds after all the criticism about their staging says something about Italy's potential as well.

I do think that they have opted for the serious/contender approach that tones down the fun elements of the song.

After the leading pack there is another group of entries that are either emerging (France, Ireland), are more or less where they used to be a week ago (Israel) or lost most of their hype (Netherlands)

Netherlands is by far the biggest 'loser' of last week but I do think that this was a market correction after a few weeks of heavy promo and creating hype that lead to their odds' drift. I still find their odds short keeping in mind that they will struggle with Juries heavy time, estimating 50-75 jury points at the moment. 

I do think that they have taken a calculated risk to boost their entry before rehearsals and reach number one by the time of the Semi - Finals but it has not produced the results they were expecting.

We need the three minutes staging to properly assess this one and could still be in contention for the public vote win, but the big bird on stage is a jury red flag.

People gradually realize that France could be the Jury winner and they are still behind the leading pack in public vote but Slimane could actually score better than people might think. 

Ireland is the other big 'winner' of the week and I wonder if they will reach single digit odds in case they qualify and they get a second half draw. 

It has been a month since I posted my estimations about the winner here. And I am more than happy to enter the Contest with that estimation, having projected Switzerland and Croatia as my Top-2, Italy and Ukraine were my default winners' tier two and then Netherlands, France and Israel following. This could very well be the Final's Top-7 and I will be thrilled with that outcome.

I do think that this is a very good sign that I am heading to the right direction this year. The only thing that has changed since then is that I am more confident for Croatia to win.

This is my current winner and the less vulnerable of the ones leading the odds.

Regarding the two Semi - Finals there are a few changes but nothing ground breaking so far. 

In Semi - Final 1 I do think that the final qualification spot will be between Serbia and Australia while in Semi - Final 2 things have become more complicated. There are at least thirteen or fourteen entries which they have an actual chance to qualify and that is very exciting, offering great values both for shock qualifiers and non qualifiers.

As of today, I will be posting my thoughts on X during the dress rehearsals and of course at the end of the day there will be a synopsis of the day from the dress rehearsals and the jury shows.

You will also have the special posts with the betting tips and my estimations for the Semi - Finals and the Final and of course new episodes of your favorite Eurovision podcast Talk About Things with Matt Rickard and Panos Zannettos.