I reckon that it is still early to speculate about the Winner, but Sweden has shown strength since early March with Finland closing the gap in the last few weeks and momentarily threatening Sweden's status quo last week before drifting again.
Just a reminder that the Semi - Finals are 100% Televoting with the Juries waiting the Grand Final to show their hands.
This is the reason you see Finland leading the odds for the Semi - Final tonight. Finland currently is @1.45 and Sweden @3.60 followed by the third Nordic country of the Semi - Final, Norway @44.
Tonight, we will see the smallest line-up in a Semi - Final since the second Semi - Final back in 2014. The fact that we have just Televoting makes the things less complicated as well, with just 11 countries fighting for the 10 golden tickets, and 4 have only mathematical chances to make it.
Not much has changed since late April when I have posted my Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings. Last year I got 9/10 predictions right and that will be the minimum I am aiming for this Semi - Final as well.
Norway
A great start for the Semi - Final. Qualifying never was an issue, the running order might affect its ranking though. Had it been in second half, the Top-3 would look secure, now 4th-5th looks the most probable scenario.
For those who have faith in Norway Top-3 in SF is @2.50-2.80.
Place: 5th
Estimated Points: 105-125
Malta
Malta feels like being a notch higher than the rest of the hopeless non-qualifying group. If you want to join Malta's party at the Final, you can do that by tripling your money.
I have gone the other way based on the death slot that has only produced 2/18 qualifications and Malta's poor record with Televoters. One of the weakest combinations of a country' record and running order.
There is a beautiful bet though in stoiximan for those betting from Greece and Cyprus for Malta to win the Group that consists of Latvia, Malta, Azerbaijan and Ireland @3.30. I have it on my personal book already. The same with a H2h against Ireland @1.55.
Place: 12th
Estimated Points: 30-40
Serbia
I was troubled with this one when I first watched it yesterday, but I do think it has enough to qualify, especially in the first 2,5 minutes. I would not recommend a bet though because I do find its odds very short but not short enough to place a lay bet.
Serbia has a good recent record and some guaranteed points from friends and diaspora that will provide a safety net.
Place: 8th
Estimated Points: 50-60
Latvia
One of the most introvert entries of the year that will struggle a lot because of the lack of Juries. Will get some small points here and there but not enough to crack Top-10.
If you believe in Latvia's lullaby you will make 4.5 times your money, but I prefer to be a realist.
Place: 13th
Estimated Points: 25-35
Portugal
The other question mark of the SF that has made just enough to secure its qualifying status. It feels a bit underwhelming, but the vocals are stunning. I do find its odds noticeably short though. I have it 9th but it is the most vulnerable to non-qualification.
Place: 9th
Estimated Points: 45-55
Ireland
I do not know if an illegal substance is in high circulation in Ireland right now, but this is the only explanation why the Irish odds to win the Contest has shortened yesterday from 1000 to 120!!!
Especially when we are talking about the most 'suitable' candidate to finish last in the SF.
Place: 15th
Estimated Points: 10-20
Croatia
This one is custom made for a Televoting Semi - Final and failing is not an option. Qualifying over 1.55 is fair and might be the most decent Q odds at the moment.
If you find it repulsive and atrocious and you wish it will not qualify, you can bet on that @2.50.
Place: 7th
Estimated Points: 60-70
Switzerland
SJB has done enough with the staging to create a concept that is memorable enough for the viewer. Remo has improved since the first rehearsal and Switzerland one way or the other will be in the Final where the Jury cavalry will come to the rescue.
I do find its odds very short though to place a bet on it.
Place: 10th
Estimated Points: 45-55
Israel
The one to watch out. Very dynamic in a great slot as well, this is a dark horse in the making. Not a fun of the dance routine in the end but it does have enough for the audience and the Juries in the Final to vote for it.
I do have it on my book as a SF Winner @70, SF Top-3 which will be one of my tips for tonight and also on the Top-4/5, Winner markets in the Final. You have been warned.
SF Top-3 is currently @2.40 and is a great value on a Televoting SF where the running order plays an important fact and the other strong candidate, Norway opens the Semi- Final.
Place: 3rd
Estimated Points: 120-140
Moldova
I find Moldova difficult to decipher going against the current here. I do have it as a qualifier and in the middle of the table as well, but I do have a gut feeling that this one will not perform great with the audience. Laying @1.12 was my first bet for the season.
The main argument is that is sandwiched between Israel and Sweden, is repetitive and not exactly politically correct with Pasha Parfeni doing capoeira moves on a little man! This will be my fan bet for the Semi - Final.
If I go with the current, this is sailing to the Final.
Place: 6th
Estimated Points: 75-85
Sweden
Ladies and gentlemen behold of the queen! Loreen means business and the staging is impressive. Unlike most of the betting community, I found the staging more suitable now than in Melodifestivalen.
Tattoo is the one to beat and remains to be seen if this year is a one-horse race. I still have my doubts and find the current odds of the overall win super-short. I do find though tonight's odds to win the Semi - Final @3.60 the only Swedish odds for the year with some value. I have a placed a small bet on this one but still have it red for the Final.
Place: 2nd
Estimated Points: 150-170
Azerbaijan
This looks better than before, but this might mean that instead of last it will finish penultimate. It needed the Juries to stand a chance but hey Azerbaijan is the main reason we have no Juries in the Semi - Finals so this is karma, not for the artists but the country.
Place: 14th
Estimated Points: 20-30
Czechia
Czechia has done the full circle during the NF season and now is back on business. Not sure if this one should be considered an X-factor getting the support from Ukrainian diaspora and be a de-facto Ukrainian entry 2.0 but they have toned down the political aspect of the song and kept the women empowerment parts.
They have one the best staging this year and I do consider it a secure Top-10 come Saturday.
Top-3 in the SF is currently @3-3.20 and is a fair price.
For my Greek fellows again, there is a great H2h in stoiximan vs Norway @4.00. This is the best value bet of the whole Semi - Final in my opinion.
There is also a Top-5 in SF bet for Czechia @1.90. I do consider this one a steal😉
Place: 4th
Estimated Points: 110-130
Netherlands
The drama of the pre-parties season continues. Netherlands has lots of negativity surrounding the performance and I thought that the artists could use that anger to create an intimate and sentimental performance that would shut all the criticism and secure the qualification.
From what I have seen yesterday this is not the case and Netherlands deserves to be left out. Vocally they have improved but staging feels like a high school prom movie in a bad way. Can they do what I have mentioned in the above paragraph tonight? If yes, they might go through.
The market was 50/50 until last night when the majority preferred to show their trust in Switzerland, Portugal and Serbia.
Netherlands Non Qualification @1.91 will be the third and last tip for today's Semi - Final.
Finland
The big favorite tonight. Too aggressive to be a contender? The one to bring the house down tonight for sure. Remains to be seen how the Juries will take it.
No value in any of the bets for today or Saturday though.
Place: 1st
Estimated Points: 170-190
And now the most important part of this post! The betting Tips
My book is available here. I will be using 100 units for my Semi - Final bets and 800 units + any settled bets units from the Semi - Finals for the Final.
The problem that has raised the last few days is which tips to give when I have readers from different countries and different companies. I will go with the majority that uses Betfair/Smarkets and the British betting companies, but for those that have available any of the H2h bets that I have mentioned, they do have equal if not best value and should bet accordingly.
So here we go
Israel SF Top-3 @ 2.46 (Betfair) x 50 units
Netherlands Not to Qualify @ 1.91 (Bet365 -2.14 in Betfair) x 40 units
Moldova Not to Qualify @ 8.00 (Bet365 - 8.50 in Betfair) x 10 units
Available Units: 0
Open Bets: 100 Units
Settled Bets: 0 units
Good luck to your bets tonight! I will be tweeting tonight and mention anything interesting betting wise if there is something worthy to mention.
Image: Vesa Marttinen/YLE
