The Swedish Way

 

Another Eurovision season is coming to its climax tonight.

For a second year in a row, we do have a heavy favourite to win and that is of course Loreen representing Sweden. 

They are both heading for some record breaks, Loreen becoming just the second artist with 2 wins and Sweden catching Ireland in the first place of total wins with 7.

Last year there was much speculation regarding if Ukraine would find the points to secure the win. 2023 is different and the reason why is the Swedish Way (I need to register that for a Trademark😂).

What is the Swedish Way? Since 2009 that we do have data available for the Split Results between Televote and Juries, we have had 9 Winners that won the Televote, 2 Winners that did not win neither the Televote nor the Juries (Ukraine '16 - Netherlands '19) and just 1 Winner that did not win the Televote but won the Juries. 

You guessed right! It was Sweden back in 2015 that won the Juries but finished 3rd in Televote behind Italy and Russia. There is a big chance we will have the same split tonight that could be more than enough for Sweden to secure the win. 

Sweden is the powerhouse with Juries, and this is its big weapon. Securing a score near the 300 points threshold will put the competition at sleep before everything starts. 

Sweden in the last few years had a systemic struggle getting the Televote points that it needed to contend for a win. It has not received more than 200 points since Mans' win in 2015 and that could be the only reason for concern for Loreen.

However, the metrics suggest that Sweden could easily reach the 250 points mark which could be more than enough even in the case that Sweden finishes third or fourth with the Public Vote. 

So, is there a way for Sweden to lose this one? In theory the minimum points that Sweden needs are 275 Jury points and 225 Televote points. In that case, it is game on.

And who could be the contenders? Odds suggest it is Finland which is destined to win the Televote. The problem is that Finland will marginally finish in Top-10 with Juries (I have 100-120 J points in my projection) so that means that they will need to achieve the second biggest Public Vote score ever! Russia '16 comes to mind when they won Televote with 361 points and finished 3rd failing to score more than 130 Jury points. 

I do have a feeling that Finland could finish lower than 2nd all the way to 4th. 

The entry that could have an actual chance is Israel. Performing in 2nd half, while Sweden, Spain, Finland and Italy are all packed in the 1st half gives an advantage with the other contenders (Norway, Ukraine) performing earlier. 

Unicorn could have a similar score to Fuego back in 2018. I do have it 4th in Juries and minimum 3rd with the Public Vote. I do have it down to marginally win the Televote boosted by the optimal running order. 

If they reach the 225 Jury points and Sweden underperforms with the Televote then there is a chance for a thriller.

And finally, we have Spain. Destined to finish Top-2 with Juries and a big mystery when it comes to Televote. If Paloma gets a similar score to France '21 near the 250 mark then it could pressure Sweden as well.

Here is my projection for the whole line up 

1. Sweden

Not my cup of tea but deserves the win, being the less vulnerable of all entries in an average quality year. The running order suggests that the producers tried everything to make it more exciting with 5th x 2 times being the best place #9 has achieved since 2013. 

Tipping Sweden to win at 1.53 obviously is not part of my betting philosophy. I have it red on the Winner's market, however I have taken covers with Combo and Forecast bets predicting a Swedish victory. 

Will be tempted to buy some when the first Jury results are in and Sweden might not be leading the board for a few countries. 

My favourite combo of all is Sweden 1st and Israel 2nd at 10.00 

Sweden-Israel Top-2 in any order at 6.00 great value as well

Sweden 1st - Israel 2nd - Finland 3rd at 12.00 is decent as well.

Tv: 3rd - Juries: 1st - Total: 1st

Estimated Points: 545-590 (Tv: 270-290 - Juries: 275-300)

2. Israel 

The biggest winner of the running order and metrics. Israel is a Top-4 lock and 95% Top-3, however I moved it to runner-up for a good reason. 

There has not been a year since 2013 (most probably earlier as well but have not checked the results) that a Top-2 entry has not been in the 2nd half. 

It would be absurd to have Sweden, Finland, and Spain all finishing in Top-3 and then Israel, Norway, Ukraine even Armenia to just finish in Top-10.

Israel is my biggest position in Winner's market waiting for the miracle to happen currently at 65.

Winning the Tele Vote at 50 is another market I am involved in plus the combos I have mentioned above with Sweden.

I have big volume bets in Top-3/4/5 since rehearsals started and this is my make it or break it country for the year. Israel finishing Top-3 will give a nice profit regardless of what happens elsewhere.

In fact, I find it difficult to understand why someone would choose Sweden to win at 1.54 instead of Israel Top-5 in 1.75.

Tv: 1st - Juries: 4th - Total: 2nd

Estimated Points: 495-520 (Tv: 275-295 - Juries: 210-225)

3. Spain

Spain's mystery around its Televote appeal is the main reason I find it difficult to rate Spain higher. This is the entry that could get some traction during the show but performing just before Sweden will create more problems than gains.

Spain to finish in Top-5 at 3.50 is a value bet.

Sweden - Spain Top-2 combo regardless of position at 12.00 is also in my book.

For those betting in Greece, stoiximan offers my Tricast 1st Sweden - 2nd Israel - 3rd Spain at 200...

Tv: 6th - Juries: 2nd - Total: 3rd

Estimated Points: 400-450 (Tv: 150-180 - Juries: 250-270)

4. Finland

The Televote winner favourite that will struggle big time with Juries. If he reaches the 175 points thresholds with them, he has a chance. 

The problem is that never before a left field entry finished that high. It is more likely for Finland to get 70 Jury points than 150...

I do have some combos with Finland being Top-3 as a cover and would be will willing to invest some money for the win, only in the case of them being near the thresholds mentioned above.

Tv: 2nd- Juries: 11th- Total: 4th

Estimated Points: 370-410 (Tv: 270-290 - Juries: 100-120)

5. Norway

I am troubled with this one. Running order, quality and metrics suggest a Top-5 finish, the same with my projection as well. 

My main problem is that I struggle to see 3 Nordic countries being Top-5, especially when Estonia and Lithuania are also in the Final. 

All these countries get their high scores from the same pond and will be impossible for all of them to score equally high in non-allies' territories. Their votes somehow will split. 

There is no great value in Norway's Top-5 but it is acceptable as cover in certain combos.

Tv: 4th- Juries: 7th- Total: 5th

Estimated Points: 350-395 (Tv: 200-225 - Juries: 150-170)

6. Italy

Marco is back to improve his 7th place back in 2013 and he is en route to do it. If Top-3 with Juries as projected could have hopes for a Top-5 finish. If not, a secured Top-10 spot. 

Italy has become a powerhouse and even when going in fumes is still able to deliver.

Top Big Five at 2.86 is an option if you think that Spain will flop.

Tv: 10th- Juries: 3rd- Total: 6th

Estimated Points: 325-365 (Tv: 95-115 - Juries: 230-250)

7. France

All the countries that I have mentioned so far have the potential to do better in some scenarios. With France we have the opposite. 7th is the best-case scenario for them and should be incredibly happy with it. 

Another hit and miss from France and the overreactions to the French songs have become part of the rehearsals' routine. 

It can easily pull a Mercy '18 and finish 15th and that will not surprise anyone. 

The only value bet here is the Top-10 lay circa 1.50.

Tv: 8th- Juries: 5th- Total: 7th

Estimated Points: 280-320 (Tv: 100-120 - Juries: 180-200)

8.  Armenia

It remains to be seen if Armenia's running order in Semi - Final has impacted their chances for a Top-10 result. I reckon that Armenia was Top-3 and probably won the Semi - Final from #2 and that by itself will be impressive. 

It is a secured Top-10 entry that has some chances for a Top-5 result, but the running order again does not help. 

For those willing to risk Top-5 is at 7.60 in betfair.

Tv: 9th- Juries: 6th- Total: 8th

Estimated Points: 260-300 (Tv: 100-120 - Juries: 180-200)

9. Ukraine

When people talk about the favourites this year, somehow Ukraine is always there but no one really talks about it. We do know the reasons and it is safe to assume that Ukraine could land anywhere from 100 to 500 points, and no one will say anything. I decided it to be somewhere in the middle just to keep my options open.

Not tipping anything here but if you see Ukraine getting more 125 Jury votes, consider it a lock Top-5.

Tv: 5th- Juries: 14th- Total: 9th

Estimated Points: 255-305 (Tv: 180-210 - Juries: 75-95)

10. Czechia

There are 5 entries that could get the 10th spot, but I have decided to go with the one that has improved throughout the season. Running order is not great but the staging and some mid-table scores with both constituencies could be enough for them to make it.

Top-10 at 2.76 has a risk but is one of the best outsider odds.

 Top-15 at 1.53 as well is great value!

Tv: 11th- Juries: 13th- Total: 10th

Estimated Points: 170-210 (Tv: 90-110 - Juries: 80-100)

11. Austria

This will be marginal as I mentioned before so 2.80 for Top-10 is a value. My problem is that Austria is opening the Final and the last Top-10 result was back in 2016. Not touching this one.

Tv: 13th- Juries: 12th- Total: 11th

Estimated Points: 165-205 (Tv: 75-95 - Juries: 90-110)

12. Belgium

Being sandwiched between Australia and Armenia is not the best place to be if you want to have Top-10 hopes. 

The one with the shortest price at 2.40 from the 5. 

No bet for me.

Tv: 14th- Juries: 10th- Total: 12th

Estimated Points: 165-205 (Tv: 65-85 - Juries: 100-120)

13.  Croatia

Copy-paste any of the above texts. Pick the one that you like from these 5 and place a Top-10 bet on it. This one has the best running order of all though performing #25 but Juries will be harsh on them.

Tv: 7th- Juries: 21st- Total: 13th

Estimated Points: 160-200 (Tv: 130-150 - Juries: 30-50)

14.  Switzerland

Switzerland will be for the Juries what Croatia is for the Televote. The problem is the running order at #3. The good news is that #3 in 9 producers' Contests has achieved two 9th places and three 11th. 

Top-10 at 5.80 is the definition of a value bet and I will tip it for tonight.

Tv: 20th- Juries: 8th- Total: 14th

Estimated Points: 155-190 (Tv: 25-40 - Juries: 130-150)

15. Estonia

Top-15 at 3.00 is an option but everything is very marginal from this point on. Every country could literally land anywhere.

Tv: 21st- Juries: 9th- Total: 15th

Estimated Points: 135-170 (Tv: 25-40 - Juries: 110-130)

16. Slovenia

It does have potential for a stronger finish but is sandwiched between other strong Televote entries and might be forgotten.

Tv: 12th- Juries: 19th- Total: 16th

Estimated Points: 130-170 (Tv: 80-100 - Juries: 50-70)

17. Australia

If finished that low, Australia could potentially be the weaker Semi - Final winner that we have ever had.

Tv: 18th- Juries: 15th- Total: 17th

Estimated Points: 110-150 (Tv: 40-60 - Juries: 70-90)

18. Lithuania

Tv: 15th- Juries: 18th- Total: 18th

Estimated Points: 100-140 (Tv: 50-70 - Juries: 50-70)

19. Serbia

Tv: 19th- Juries: 20th- Total: 19th

Estimated Points: 75-115 (Tv: 35-55 - Juries: 40-60)

20. Portugal

Juries need to come to the rescue for this one. In conversation for the last place but I do find the odds very short and funny enough #2 might be the worst place to be in the Final line-up but has not produced a single last place in 9 Contests!

Tv: 24th- Juries: 16th- Total: 20th

Estimated Points: 80-110 (Tv: 20-30- Juries: 60-80)

21. Cyprus

Finishing last at 120 in betfair and 67 in bet365 makes Cyprus' last place the ideal fun bet while watching the show.

Tv: 22nd- Juries: 17th- Total: 21st

Estimated Points: 70-105 (Tv: 20-35- Juries: 50-70)

22. Moldova

Tv: 16th- Juries: 25th- Total: 22nd

Estimated Points: 60-95 (Tv: 50-70- Juries: 10-25)

23. Poland

Tv: 17th- Juries: 26th- Total: 23rd

Estimated Points: 55-85 (Tv: 45-65- Juries: 10-20)

24. Albania

Tv: 23rd- Juries: 22nd- Total: 24th

Estimated Points: 45-80 (Tv: 20-35- Juries: 25-45)

25. Germany

Finishing last at 10.50 in betfair is of course a nice fun bet to add to your collection though the competition will be tough this year...

Tv: 25th- Juries: 23rd- Total: 25th

Estimated Points: 30-60 (Tv: 10-20- Juries: 20-40)

26. United Kingdom

Disclaimer: The Jury points projected are not for the vocal capabilities of Mae but more because of the secured 12 points from Ukraine and some other delegations that were happy with the Contest organisation.

The PImp Slot has in fact produced a last place in the last 9 contest and it was the other British Isle, Ireland, so 4.80 to finish last is not a bad call if someone rellies on the running order to bet.

Tv: 26th- Juries: 24th- Total: 26th

Estimated Points: 25-55 (Tv: 10-20- Juries: 15-35)

And that concludes my ranking projections and thoughts about the bets tonight.

Now it is time for some betting tips!

I do have the 800 units that were available for the Final plus the settled bet for Netherlands from Semi - Final 1 for 85.6 units so my Total for the Final is 885.6 units.

Israel's Top-3 for SF-1 is still open and most probably won. Moldova was a long chance and a fun bet.

Greece was disappointing but I knew where I was getting. Armenia's Win is still a possibility that could bring back a profit.

I have had 19/20 correct Qualification calls with Greece being the only one missing out, by the 11th in my projection Estonia. So I was that close to get a perfect 20/20 that I could brag about for the next 20 years.😂

 

I have decided this year to place fewer bets and this is what I will try to do this year as well. 

Final

Israel to Finish in Top-3 @ 3.15 (betfair exchange) x 600 units

Sweden to Win and Israel come Second @ 10.00 (betfair sportsbook) x 100 units

Israel to Win @ 60 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

Switzerland to Finish Top-10 @ 5.50 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

Spain to Finish Top-5 @ 3.50 (betfair exchange) x 50 units

and now the fun bets

Cyprus to Finish last @ 130 (betfair exchange) x 15.6 units

Israel to Win the Tele Vote @ 29 (betfair exchange) x 20 units

Available Units: 0

Open Bets: 885.6 Units

Settled Bets: 0 units

Good luck with all your bets tonight! I will post some thoughts for the Contest and my betting strategy for this year by the end of this.

You can also find my updated betting book here.

May (not Muller) the best one win!