It was only last August when I shared some thoughts about the next Eurovision and one of my talking points was that a voting reform was needed, and I was somehow expecting it to happen. I was not surprised to see the viewers from non-participating countries earning the right to vote, it was a matter of time to happen especially now that more countries have withdrawn but going back to 100% televoting for the Semi-Finals was something that I would have never predicted, and the reason is quite simple.
EBU is not trying to solve the problem with rigged votes because that could have caused more withdrawals, they are just trying to win some time and make happy some of the countries that were struggling with the split votes.
But those of you that were following Eurovision back in the '00s will remember that there was another problem that will be coming back and that is the extra boost for the countries with diaspora (Lithuania, Romania, Poland, Ukraine, Greece, Serbia, Albania). Having two Semi-Finals instead of one like in the 2004-2007 and the allocation draw will smooth the problem a bit at least for a few years.
The reason EBU goes back to that system is very simple. They are shuffling the deck to avoid having more withdrawals in the future especially in Eastern Europe. Had North Macedonia and Bulgaria known EBU's intentions, I am sure that they would think it twice before dropping out. Bosnia and Turkey could also be tempted to come back next year as well.
What do the voting changes mean for the Semi Finals?
It will be interesting to see if any of the national broadcasters will change the rules/format of their national final/selecting process.
ERT has already announced that they will be opting for a mix of a professional and a demoscopic 70-member jury.
NRK has also changed the format of MGP dropping the guaranteed places in the Final, the duals between artists and the second chance and will re-introduce an international jury in the Final.
We shall wait for more adaptations in the following weeks.
During the 2016-2022 split voting system era, in a total of 12 Semi-Finals, 18 songs were saved by the televoters and 14 were saved by the Juries. Countries with a poor qualifying record get a chance to risk more and achieve a better result. Some of them could get away with it and qualify to the Final, hopefully not dropping the quality level that could already drop because of the smaller number of participants. At the same time, the jury magnets will have their chance to shine if they can attract enough points to qualify to the Final.
Running order suddenly becomes very important, with countries performing in slots #2 to #4 being in serious trouble. Slot #2 has 1/12 qualifications and slots #3 and #4 have 4/12. You need to reach slot #5 to find a winner and some decent podium results. The jurors are not there anymore to support and balance things.
In the second half, only slots #10 and #11 have a negative qualifying record (5/12 both) so a second half draw means an almost automatic qualification. Needless to say, the later the better.
I would be curious to see if any of the 'usual suspects' will try to sabotage its televoting and rely on a 100% jury result...
Vidbir at the end of the month: Have we heard the winner already?
Having heard the songs, there is one that clearly sticks out and that is Jerry Heil's 'When God Shut the Door'.
Krut's ' Kolyskova' is the underdog and I struggle to find another entry that could win the whole thing.
The talking point for the second year in a row will be again if Ukraine can/will win again and once again the answer is that is too early to call it.
Judging from the two and a half minutes audio, WGSTD in a normal year could have been a 5th-12th song, but again this is not a normal year and Ukraine is not getting the points based on meritocracy.
The war will be the main factor and assuming that hostilities will still be happening, Ukraine will still have the public's support. No one can predict if it will be in the same scale as last year, but let's not forget that Ukrainian diaspora exists throughout Europe and could single handedly secure the Televoting win. There are some friends and allies that will also support Ukraine and Juries again will be the turning point.
Politics could secure a minimum of 100 Jury points and Ukraine starts the voting with a minimum of 350-400 points looking for the extra 100-150 points that will secure their win.
The Ukrainian win is currently trading @3.30 and has taken 73% of the total sum invested so far. The odds obviously are wrong for this time of the year and will not change my approach compared to last year.
Winner or not, Ukraine's unique situation creates opportunities elsewhere and the best time to invest on them will once again be during the first half of the Jury voting. Until them, I am bracing myself to see those 1.40-2.00 odds available after March...
Eurovision season is around the corner and posts will be posted more often from now on.
Let's hope we will have a great year!
