Winner's Market: The rest of the field and the sleepers

 

Last week we had a first look to the hot favourites of this year and today I will close the list with the rest of the countries that are leading the market and share some early thoughts about a few sleepers.

Since last Monday, Malta has taken the lead because of Gjon's first live performance yesterday in a Spanish show that was underwhelming in general. The interesting thing is that Malta's price has not shorten a bit, is Switzerland's price that drifted. The other big winner of the week is our first country in today's post.

France 7.80

Another ambitious effort from France that has shown some signs of life in the last five years. Voila' is a very theatrical performance with many Edith Piaf elements and an Amelie themed last minute, trying to create an intimate atmosphere talking to the psyche of the viewer. France wants to win the whole thing.

Pros:

- The staging of the national final does create that intimacy and it plays well with the shadows. It looks like a finished product  

- Barbara Pravi is delivering an amazing performance selling this song as much as possible.

Cons:

- Another jury magnet and the second among the favourites in French. The last time that a French language song was in Top-3 was back in 1993...and it was Switzerland...It would be a shocker to have two French songs in Top-5. 

- The televoting appeal that France is missing. France was a Top-4 favourite at one point back in 16', 18' and 19'. All 3 times failed to finish in Top-5, ranking 9th, 17th and 18th respectively in PV. In 2011 it was the big favourite to win and finished 15th...

If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:

France 2008

Estonia 2018

France 2018

Fair Price: 12.00-15.00

Bet Value Price: I wouldn't personally touch France in prices below 20 given their track record and this year's field. 

 My humble opinion: I do understand why France is among the favourites but unfortunately it does not work for me. It gives me Estonia 2018 and France 2018 vibes: among the favourites, being the quality song that will stand out. The best term I would use to describe it though is 'pseudo' quality. It is a normal slightly repetitive song that tries to sell itself as something different. Not all viewers will be impressed. Would not be surprised if it landed 8th-12th 

Lithuania 21.00

One of the big losers from last year's cancelation. Roop are coming back with a competitive disco-techno electro entry. Discoteque is a powerful song, but it falls short in comparison with On Fire. The group is trying to recreate the atmosphere from last year but that is not enough.

Pros:

- It's a finished product and we do know their vocal abilities. 

Cons:

- The comparison with On Fire

- The appeal both on juries and PV. I can see it finishing in Top-10 with both, but I fail to see it reaching Top-5 in any of the two

If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:

Poor man's Belgium 2015

Fair Price: 60.00- 80.00

Bet Value Price: 100+ if after the jury vote is in or in reaching distance of Top-5. 

My humble opinion: Lithuania 2020 was in the mix to win, and we will never know what would happen. Lithuania 2021 would be happy with a Top-10 and this is what I believe it will happen. 6th-12th is the most probable outcome.

Iceland 24.00

The biggest loser of last year! Everything was aligned for Iceland to win and then covid happened. Dadi is back with the almost impossible task to create a back-to-back winner song. 10 Years tries to recreate the hype that Talk About Things had but market did not react the way Iceland would hope. Another 80's revival entry, similar choreography to last year and probably the same suits. Can he do it?

Pros:

-Slick choreography and cool suits. For most of the viewers this is the first time that they will see the whole act and will attract some novelty and young votes.

- It has the potential to create some hype during the rehearsals

-Televote friendly

Cons:

- Uplifting but looks like it is missing the energy. 

- Jury appeal is not there. Will get some ally points and some random 2-4s but won't be enough to keep it in contention after the jury votes.

If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:

Denmark 2018 - Norway 2019. Will continue the tradition of a Scandi song finishing in Top-5 with the Televoting but it will already be late because of the Juries.

Fair Price: 35.00-40.00

Bet Value Price: Over 60.00 if and only if will be able to get more than 175-200 points with the juries. Then it will still have a slim chance to win.

My humble opinion: Iceland could be the regulator in televoting and affect the results. Could possibly win in the 100% Televoting era but has very very slim chances with the current voting system.

These are the 8 songs that are leading the Winner's market. Like every year, we will have a few more songs that will come out of nowhere. There is always one that sneaks in the Top-5 and at least one that sneaks in the Top-10. I will keep an eye on the following countries, waiting to see their rehearsals

Russia 50.00 - Powerhouse with many allies and a song that could get some western votes enough to secure a Top-5 finishing

Moldova 65.00 - aka Russia 2.0 for the Russian allies to choose if they don't like Russia 1.0. Kirkorov's way of doing business.

Belgium 130.00 - Hooverphonic is a big brand name with its fans and the song has a radio quality. The live could bring this one in life.

Romania 65.00 - If it manages to avoid comparisons with Bulgaria and Billie Eilish. Great stage potential.

In the next few weeks, you will find a full report/preview for all the participants but that will happen after the reveal of the running order for the Semis.

In the meantime, I might post something more technical/ data driven.

 

Winner's Market - First Thoughts

 

Eurovision's National selection season is officially over today, and it is time to have the first breakdown of the favourites. 

My first thought is that this will be an open year. We do have a clear favourite, but the current price does not represent its actual value. 

The current trend has Juries and Televoting opting for different songs with the last unanimous winner being back in 2017. Only Sobral and Conchita, if the 50/50 results applied, have won both the Juries and Televoting. Arcade was the first winner that not only did not win Juries or the public but finished 3rd and 2nd respectively. Italy that finished second, ranked third with Juries and fourth in public. Neither the winner of Juries nor Televoting finished in Top-5! Some food for thought...

2019                                              2018

1. Netherlands J: 3 - TV: 2           1. Israel     J: 3 - TV:1

2. Italy             J: 4 - TV: 3           2. Cyprus J: 5 - TV: 2

3. Russia         J: 9 - TV: 4            3. Austria J: 1 - TV: 13!!

4. Switzerland J: 7 - TV: 5           4. Germany J: 4 - TV: 6

5. Sweden       J: 2 - TV: 9           5. Italy       J:17!!! - TV: 3

Prices in Winner's market tend to be televoting centric. 

So, grab your popcorn and let's start

1. Switzerland 4.10 

Gjon's Tears is one of the few returning artists that produced a better song than last year. He would have been in the podium last year as well, but this is his time to shine. An immensely powerful and intimate ballad with huge staging potential.

Pros: 

- Vocal abilities

- Staging potential

- The jury winner

- Swiss momentum and recent form, proving that they have invested in a win

Cons:

- French language. The last time a French speaking song was leading the market (2011) finished 15th. It was opera and there was a different voting system as well, but French songs do have the tendency to underperform.

- Fishing in the same pond with France, Bulgaria, Romania. 

If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:

Netherlands 2019 slightly less dramatic

Bulgaria 2017 

Fair Price: 6.00 - 8.00

Value Bet Price: Anything over 8.00. That ship has already sailed for good. I cannot see that price being available before the night of the second semi and if that is the case, he will already be in trouble.

My humble opinion: This is the one to beat this year but is far from a certain winner. It's a certain Top-4 entry, probably the Jury winner with 3rd being the worst-case scenario but can he finish Top-3 with the televoting? That is the key point, and we need to see the staging for that.

2. Malta 5.40 

And suddenly Malta happened! The upbeat song that I was expecting to do great in the first post-covid Eurovision. Great energy and vocals from Destiny. Grabs your attention from the first second and never looks back. 

Pros: 

- Energy, energy, energy

- Destiny's voice

- Can use the back vocals to its advantage

- Great ''tradition'' with Juries

Cons:

- It looks like a lite version of Netta's toy

- I am not sure about its appeal in Eastern Europe, both with Juries and Televoting

- Fishing in the same pond with Sweden

- The Maltese Televoting...Malta struggles to get points. 2014 finished 13th in total with the 50/50 system, but ranked only 24th in televoting, in 2016 12th in total and 21st in televoting, 2019 14th in total and 22nd respectively...ouch...

If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be:

Israel 2018 

Iceland 2010

Fair Price: 8.00-10.00

Value Bet Price: Over 12.00. Not sure if will find it at any point before the announcement of the running order for the final.

My humble opinion: Still very fresh in my mind. The one to beat Switzerland but could easily be left out of Top-5. Could land anywhere between 1-8. Need some time to assess its dynamic

3. Bulgaria 8.80

Victoria returns with a nice entry. GUIGO has the potential to be a radio hit and is one of the less Eurovision-ish songs which is always a good thing for the audience but not so much if you are after the win. It has potential.

Pros: 

- Atmospheric and huge staging potential as well

- Great appeal to western juries and televoters plus the traditional regional support (hold that thought)

- Bulgaria wants to win.

- Billie Eilish vibes

Cons: 

- Like Switzerland, is jury based and that might be a problem

- Bulgaria's PR. Still not convinced that Bulgaria has learned from the past how to play the game. 

- Balkans are making a comeback in the contest with enough strong entries that might steal votes from Bulgaria (Romania, Greece, Cyprus, Moldova, Croatia). So, it is a matter of who will qualify to the final. The less the better for them.

- Staging History. They did everything right back in 2016 and 2017 but 2018 was a nightmare. They tend to overcomplicate things when less is more.

If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be: 

Bulgaria 2017 

Fair Price: 12.00- 15.00

 Bet Value Price: Anything around 18.00. Being in the same Semi with Switzerland, there is a chance to take it at that price after the Semi. 

My humble opinion: Bulgaria is in for the win, and they should be proud for their song no matter what happens this year. It is an almost certain Top-5, probably Top-3 with Juries and somewhere between Top-3/5 with televoting. For the moment is one step behind Switzerland and Malta.

4. Italy 12.50

Well done to Italy for choosing Maneskin. It has the energy; it has attitude and does not care about what you think! Excellent choice regardless of what happens in the contest. My personal favourite so biased alert is on. 

Pros:

- Very stylistic and in your face approach

- Will definitely attract alternative and rock fans

- Based in momentum and form in Eurovision, Italy is first in line to win the contest

Cons:

- Overly aggressive and slightly left field. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

- Italy's struggle with Juries. They have ranked Il Volo 6th when it won the Televoting against Mans and they finished 17th!!! in 2018 when they were 3rd in Televoting and still managed to finish 5th in Total! The worst ranking with Juries or Televoting that has squeezed in Top-5.

If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be: 

Iceland 2019

Hungary 2018

Fair Price: 16.00-18.00

Bet Value Price: 20+ with a good running order and some luck that could be the definition of the dark horse.

My humble opinion: I am optimistic about Italy and could see it landing somewhere in Top-2/5. Will test one of my theories for Eurovision which is Juries and audience are exposed to something for a 2nd or 3rd time it is easier for them to accept it. Before Dana in 98' it was Paul Oscar in 97', before Lordi in 06' there were Wig Wam in 05' etc. In 2019 we had Hatari and Conan. I'm sure that Maneskin will do better than Hatari.

5. Sweden 14.50

Melfest's results showed that Tusse was a one-horse race, winning easily. Million Voices is a classic Swedish Eurovision anthem and in harmony with BLM trend, but it seems a bit too safe as a song. The price like every year shows some extra respect to the brand name called Sweden.

Pros:

- We know the final product and it is slick as almost every Swedish entry

- Sweden's ''love affair'' with the Juries that will lift the overall score

- Tusse's personal story and charisma

Cons:

- The song is kind of generic and nothing special in terms of lyrics

- Have televoters been fed up with the Swedish entries?

- Could Tusse appeal to Eastern Europe?

If I had to compare it with a past entry that would be: 

Russia's 2015 poor version

Russia 2013

Fair Price: 22.00-25.00

Value Bet Price: 30.00+and just for trading reasons

My humble opinion: Sweden's Top-5 is in serious danger this season. Cannot see it going lower than 12th but neither can see it reaching Top-5. 7th-8th is the most probable outcome.

These are my first thoughts for the contest. Will post next week regarding the possible dark horses and the flops. It looks like we will have a very promising Eurovision Season ahead!

Eurovision's pre Rehearsals Essential Pack

 

It has been a long time since I have posted something and boy it feels good to be back and running! Last year has been crazy and  I wanted to wait a bit longer before starting my blog for Eurovision 2021. 

I do reckon that 2021 will have a few hiccups as well, but hopefully will not impact the Contest. In this post I will try to summarise what we know so far and give a few key points for pre-rehearsals betting. Here we go...

What we know so far: 

EBU has opted for Scenario B, which means that all or most of the participants will sing live from Ahoy Arena.

 It will be a socially distanced event and delegations have to produce a live - on - tape performance in case they cannot make it to Rotterdam or they have to self isolate. 

There will be a reduced audience in the Arena. ( Personally doubt about it)

For the first time delegations can use pre - recorded backing vocals, with no limits on the number of backing singers, allowing better staging for songs that are based on a choreography.

How all these impact the Contest?

My biggest fear so far is that some of the delegations might not be able to travel to Rotterdam and instead we will watch the live - on - tape performance. That is a game changer. Those who watched San Remo will know that Irama, one of the performers had to self isolate because of contact tracing and the producers used a recorded rehearsal. He was close to Top-3 but I do think that his absence has impacted his ranking. All other artists were able to change costumes and interact with the presenters and the TV audience. His clip felt kind of soulless.

Pre recorded performance could be a burden for some delegations that do not have the means or the experience to stage one...Armenia has already withdrawn from the Contest because it did not have the time and means to produce a song. If I had to guess, I do believe that at least 2-3 more countries will not show up in Rotterdam and will opt for the Tape just for the sake of participating. I wish to be proved wrong.

The backing vocals is another game changer. Who will use them more efficienlty to produce something innovative and out of the Eurovision thinking box? This aspect might be the Wow factor for this year, similar to Sweden 2015 or Ukraine 2016.

Sharing some thoughts about pre-rehearsal betting:

In this section I will share some principles that I use every year and help me having profits every year for the last decade.

1. Wait for all songs to be revealed before start betting. The majority of the favorites and the power houses all reveal their entries in the last few days. Wait to hear/see all of them before start betting heavily. In this Contest you can find opportunities to bet until the final results are revealed during the final. The false favorites are flowering this time of the year...

There are still 17 entries to be revealed in the next days...Use timing wisely

2. This year we have many returning artists because of what happened last year. Be aware of the anchor effect! Sending a good entry in 2020 doesn't mean that 2021 will be the same. The only returning artists that do better the second time are the ones that failed to qualify the first one...

 Iceland would probably have been the Winner last year. Can they win this year? Maybe...But leading the Winner market @ 7.4 without having listened to an entry that comes from a nation that has never won and finished 2nd just twice in their history is not exactly the definition of a value bet...

3. The lack of Eurovision parties. The backing vocals might reduce the impact of those, but we will end up going in rehearsals without having heard  some of the songs performed live. Less data to collect means smaller amount of bets to be placed. Patience is a virtue. 

4. The impact of the lack of audience that will affect  the uplifting entries or the ones that will be relying to the creation of some intimacy. I reckon this will be the year we will see some holograms of fans/people  on stage or on the background to help the contestants. 

5. I have a feeling that the winner of this year will be an uplifting entry. It has been a very tough year and most of us feel tired, depressed, stressed, trapped and Eurovision will be a Saturday night that finally people can party and forget all those horrible months. It is something that people need and are looking forward to. This is just a gutt feeling.

17 entries are left to be revealed and I don't think we have listened/seen the winner yet. I will be posting on a weekly basis for the next few weeks and will do a basic anaysis on every participant when we will know the running order of the Semis. 

It feels nice to be back to the pre-Eurovision routine!