My name is Yiannis Kefalidis, most of you probably know me as johnkef , commentator at Sofabet and other Eurovision Betting sites.
EurovisionBetsandPieces is my new blog aiming to analyse the betting odds and break down all the participating songs' potentials. This first post focuses on the Winner market ( odds available the 28th March).
Netherlands 4.30
Until 2013, Netherlands had only 1/9 qualifications fighting with Bulgaria for the worst qualification record. That year, the local broadcaster decided to upgrade its product and started taking the contest more seriously. The result: 5/6 qualifications with a 2nd place (2014), a 9th place (2013) and two just out of the Top-10 finishings (11th - 2016,2017).
This year Netherlands aims for its first win after 2015. Duncan Lawrence, known from the dutch version of The Voice, coached by Ilse DeLange, member of the Common Linnets that finished 2nd in 2014. The song is called Arcade and is an atmospheric ballad. Luckily for us, we were able to hear Duncan performing the song live and has proved that vocals are not a problem. Netherlands deserves to be the early favorite.
Netherlands' price in betfair the day before the song was revealed was 23.00-25.00. An hour after the song went public, the price had fallen to 8.00-10.00 . The moment that Russia;s song was announced, Netherlands became the favorite and never looked back again. The song is currently moving at the 3.75- 4.50 area. At my book I have it @ 4.46. My personal strategy does not allow me to buy anything before all the songs are revealed. Sometimes I might lose some value but prefer it that way.
If someone today was pointing a gun at me and told me that i had to choose the winner in order to live, Netherlands would be my choice...
Russia 6.80
Russia is back after 2 years that politics took over and the result was a withdrawal from the contest (2017) and the first disqualification ever! ( the 2.25 of Russia's NQ last year was one of the best values ever). This year they are sending back to the crime scene the same team that gave them a spot at the podium back in 2016. Though the expectations for that song in 2016 were to secure an easy win.
That year Russia was the big favorite. There was a time that the price for the win was 1.60-1.65 on a field of 26 countries!!! Russia smashed the televoting getting 361 points when Ukraine that was 2nd got 323 points, though the juries were not that friendly. The reasons why: The anti-russian climate because of the civil war in Ukraine, the Ukrainian song that was political, the staging of the song that looked like an episode of Takeshi's Castle and it game over.
The reason why I am analysing the facts from 2016 is that Russia has created a song to avoid a low jury score that will kill their chances for the win. The problem is that it won't win televoting either. Sergei Lazarev will sing an epic ballad that could easily be the soundtrack of an epic movie ( or maybe series? I think they are trying to take advantage of the Game of Thrones hype! watch the videoclip). The other problem is that there is not much of a song. Of course we have to wait for the rehearsals to see what kind of show the Russians will stage, but personally I am not convinced. Kontopoulos' songs sound outdated and even though I respect Russia's voting allies in juries and televoting, I cannot see this song being a Top-3 in juries or televoting.
The song gives me Rybak 2018 vibes and a 7th-10th finishing would be fair for that song, but it will definitely do better because we are talking about Russia. My pre-rehearsal estimation is a 3rd - 5th finishing.
Switzerland 7.20
The price of Switzerland was 25.00 just a few minutes before the song was aired. A few minutes after the price was 12.00-13.00. The last few days it kept shortening and dropped to the 7.00-8.00 zone threatening Russia.
The feel good dancing track of the year. Many elements remind me of Despacito, but I would call it Fuego 2019 ( Cyprus is Fuego 2.0 this year). Luca Hanni definitely will bring energy to the scene and will lift the crowd. I am very curious to hear the live version. The staging will probably be similar to the videoclip.
My opinion is that Switzerland is the second of the three songs that give me a winner vibe this year. I don't think it will win but can definitely see it finishing 2nd or 3rd. This is one of the rehearsals that I am waiting to watch. Currently there is no value at the price. A fair price for me would be around the 15-16 area. Switzerland has a poor record on staging its songs, we haven't seen it live and Switzerland doesn't have the allies to secure points, that is not a problem though as long as you stage your song properly.
Greece 26.00
As you can see, i have passed by Sweden, Iceland, Italy and Malta and went straight to Greece. The reason why is that this is the 3rd song this year that gives me a winner vibe. I know what you think: You are Greek and you are biased towards your country's song. The truth is that I was never a big fan of the Greek entries with a few exceptions ( 1989, 2008, 2013)
Every year there is a song with potential that usually goes under the radar through the pre-rehearsals season and then suddenly on the first rehearsal the prices crush!!! The same happened with Netherlands 2014, Russia 2015, Australia and Ukraine 2016, Portugal 2017. I have the feeling that the same thing will happen with Greece this year.
This is the rehearsal that am I waiting with anticipation. The song has a great staging potential and Katerine has great vocal abilities.
I hope you liked my analysis and will try to post the english version of all the posts here in EurovisionBetsand Pieces.
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