The Eurovision Data Puzzle: What the Numbers Reveal About Winning the Contest
Every Eurovision season I spend a significant amount of time analysing the numbers. The contest may look chaotic on the surface, but patterns always emerge when you dig into the data.
Last year my analysis focused on the jury vs public vote battle. One of the key observations was the increasing dominance of jury winners, a trend that continued for a third consecutive year.
In fact, the last three Eurovision winners collectively received just one set of 12 points from the public vote — Switzerland in 2024 — out of 114 possible televote douze points.
Another major observation was what I described as the “elephant in the room”: the impact of geopolitics on the public vote. In recent years, Israel and Ukraine have consistently attracted large televote totals, often driven by factors beyond the music itself.
Based on these trends, my prediction for the 2025 winner came down to France or the Netherlands. As we now know, neither outcome materialised. Their inability to convert support into a strong public vote performance raised an obvious question:
What did the data miss?
During the off-season I decided to revisit the numbers in greater depth, searching for patterns and structural clues that might explain Eurovision outcomes more reliably.
Some key questions guided the analysis:
- Are certain countries structurally weaker with either juries or televoters?
- Are there groups of countries that dominate the top scores, leaving little room for outsiders?
- How open is Eurovision really when it comes to producing winners?
To answer these questions, I examined the highest scores in each voting constituency and the countries achieving them.
Methodology
The analysis focuses on the 2016–2025 era, the period using the modern 50/50 split between juries and televoting.
To make results comparable across years, I standardised all contests to a 35-country voting lineup. Each edition’s scores were recalculated as if 35 countries voted, plus an additional televote score representing Rest of the World voting.
Why was this necessary?
Earlier contests in this period often had 40+ participating countries, producing score totals that are impossible to reach in more recent editions due to withdrawals and bans. Standardising the dataset removes this distortion.
For clarity, I then filtered only scores above 200 points in each voting constituency.
Highest Jury Scores
Across the nine contests analysed, 18 jury scores exceeded 200 points.
Only three performances crossed the 300-point mark, with The Code currently holding the record under the adjusted format (although Portugal 2017 scored more under the original voting system with additional voting countries).
The 2020s dominate the jury rankings, leading the late 2010s 10–8 overall and 7–3 in the Top 10 highest scores.
A total of 12 countries appear in the 200+ jury club, with four countries achieving multiple entries:
Multiple appearances
- Sweden – 4 times (2023, 2022, 2018, 2017)
- Switzerland – 3 times (2025, 2024, 2021)
- Austria – 2 times (2025, 2018)
- France – 2 times (2024, 2021)
One-off entries
United Kingdom 2022
Spain 2022
Netherlands 2019
North Macedonia 2019
Portugal 2017
Bulgaria 2017
Australia 2016
Interestingly, only five of the last nine Eurovision winners appear on this list. Ukraine (2016, 2022), Israel (2018), and Italy (2021) all won without surpassing the 200-point jury threshold.
In other words:
A strong jury score helps — but it does not guarantee victory.
Perhaps the most striking finding is the absence of Eastern Europe.
Only two Eastern European countries appear in the jury 200+ club:
- Bulgaria – 231 points in 2018 (the highest in the region)
- North Macedonia – 2019
For a region that regularly produces strong Eurovision entries, this disparity is remarkable.
Highest Televote Scores
The televote tells a very different story.
There have been 31 televote scores above 200 points, 13 more than the jury vote.
Even more striking: 19 countries have achieved this threshold — seven more than in the jury rankings.
Nine performances have crossed 300 televote points.
While the 2020s still lead the late 2010s 18–13 overall, the distribution is noticeably more balanced compared with the juries.
Some countries repeatedly dominate the televote leaderboard.
Multiple appearances
- Ukraine – 4 (2024, 2022, 2021, 2016)
- Israel – 3 (2025, 2024, 2018)
- Italy – 3 (2021, 2019, 2018)
- Finland – 2 (2023, 2021)
- Norway – 2 (2023, 2019)
- France – 2 (2024, 2021)
- Moldova – 2 (2022, 2017)
- Russia – 2 (2019, 2016)
Single appearances
Estonia 2025
Sweden 2023
Netherlands 2019
Belgium 2017
Switzerland 2024
Cyprus 2018
Spain 2022
Serbia 2022
Portugal 2017
Croatia 2024
Bulgaria 2017
Importantly, 8 of the last 9 winners recorded a 200+ televote score.
The only exception?
Austria 2025.
Geographically, the televote distribution is far more balanced: Western Europe leads Eastern Europe 11–10 (with Cyprus and Israel classified geographically as East).
The conclusion is clear:
The televote is structurally more open than the jury vote.
Eurovision’s “200+ Club”: The Inner Circle
Of the 12 countries with 200+ jury scores and the 19 countries with 200+ televote scores, only seven countries appear in both groups.
Even more interesting: four of those entries are one-off appearances — often linked to exceptional songs.
These include:
- Portugal 2017 (winner)
- Netherlands 2019 (winner)
- Bulgaria 2017 (runner-up)
- Spain 2022 (third place)
Only three countries have multiple appearances in both constituencies.
Welcome to Eurovision’s Inner Circle:
Sweden
- Jury: 4 times (2017, 2018, 2022, 2023)
- Televote: 1 time (2023)
Switzerland
- Jury: 3 times (2021, 2024, 2025)
- Televote: 1 time (2024)
France
- Jury: 2 times (2021, 2024)
- Televote: 2 times (2021, 2024)
France is particularly interesting. It has achieved strong scores in both constituencies twice, yet those scores remained in the 215–231 range, likely explaining why the country has not converted them into a win.
A Structural Imbalance
The deeper numbers reveal something even more striking.
Between 2016 and 2025, 44 countries participated in Eurovision.
Yet only:
- 4 countries scored 200+ jury points multiple times
- 8 countries did the same in the televote
Looking at single occurrences:
- 12 countries reached 200+ jury points
- 19 countries reached 200+ televote points
This means:
- 1 in 4 countries ever reached 200+ jury points
- Almost half reached it with the televote
The evidence strongly suggests that televoting is significantly more democratic, while jury success is concentrated within a small group of countries — largely from Central and Northern Europe.
Top-3 Rankings: Who Really Dominates?
Next, I examined Top-3 finishes in each voting constituency.
You might expect the same diversity in both lists — after all, each contest has exactly three podium positions.
But the patterns are surprisingly different.
Jury Top-3
16 countries have finished in the jury Top-3 since 2016.
However, in the 2020s alone, that list shrinks to just 10 countries.
Since 2018, every jury Top-3 has included at least one country that had already achieved it before.
In 2025, something unprecedented happened:
All three jury Top-3 countries had been there before.
- Austria (2018)
- Switzerland (2021, 2024)
- France (2016, 2021, 2024)
Only two newcomers have joined the jury Top-3 in the last three editions:
- Croatia 2024
- Italy 2023
Countries with multiple jury Top-3 finishes:
- Sweden – 5
- France – 4
- Switzerland – 3
- Austria – 2
- Israel – 2
Some fascinating patterns emerge:
- Every Eurovision since 2016 has had either Sweden or France in the jury Top-3.
- Yet they have never appeared there together in the same year.
- Every time Switzerland reached the jury Top-3, France was also present — and Switzerland ranked higher each time.
Televote Top-3
The televote Top-3 includes 17 countries, slightly more than the jury list.
Even more importantly:
Every Eurovision since 2016 has had at least one country reaching the televote Top-3 for the first time.
Countries with multiple televote podiums:
- Ukraine – 4
- Israel – 3
- Italy – 3
- Sweden – 2
- Norway – 2
- Moldova – 2
Once again, the televote appears much more open to new contenders.
The Serial Contenders
Only five countries have managed to finish Top-3 in both constituencies multiple times:
- Sweden
- Ukraine
- Israel
- France
- Italy
A few others have achieved repeated success in just one constituency:
Jury specialists
- Switzerland (3)
- Austria (2)
Televote specialists
- Norway (2)
- Moldova (2)
The Last Line of Contenders: Top-5 Finishes
Expanding the scope to Top-5 results provides an even clearer picture.
Among the 35 countries expected in Eurovision 2026, only 19 have ever reached a jury Top-5.
The most consistent performers include:
- Sweden (5 times)
- Italy (5)
- France (4)
- Switzerland (3)
- Ukraine (3)
Meanwhile several countries have never reached the jury Top-5, including:
- Norway
- Serbia
- Lithuania
- Armenia
- Greece
Televote Top-5
The televote again proves more open.
24 of the 35 competing countries have reached the televote Top-5 at least once.
Countries with multiple televote Top-5 results include:
- Ukraine
- Israel
- Italy
- Finland
- Switzerland
- Norway
- Sweden
- France
- Moldova
- Bulgaria
However, a few countries still struggle badly with the public vote:
- Germany
- Lithuania
- Armenia
- Greece
- Azerbaijan
Why Eurovision 2026 Looks Wide Open
This brings us to the most interesting conclusion.
Eurovision 2026 is considered unusually open because the current favourites share a common trait:
They all have solid or average historical performance, but none of them dominate both voting blocs consistently.
In other words, every potential winner still needs to do something they haven’t quite managed before.
And that is precisely what makes Eurovision so fascinating.
Even in a contest increasingly shaped by structural patterns and voting behaviour, a truly exceptional song can still break the model.
Portugal 2017 proved it.
The Netherlands 2019 proved it.
And every year, another country tries to do the same.
