The national final season is here and allocation draw for the Semi Finals will be announced in the next few days.
We will have plenty of time in the following weeks to comment on the songs and I will post a few technical posts regarding the Semis but I would like to use this first post to share some thoughts and tips.
My philosophy during the National Finals season is to get involved as less as possible. I never bet on them and don't even watch. There is a huge amount of energy, data and noise that do not provide enough feedback. I prefer to listen/watch only the songs that have won their final or were chosen to represent a country. There is no point to extend the 2-2.5 months of thinking/projecting/estimating to 4 months.
Rule No2: Never place a bet on Eurovision before all the songs are known. You might lose some value but is more likely to lose lots of money on a false favorite. The last few years it has been the norm that all the favorites and power houses announce their songs in the last weekend before the EBU delegation meeting, the only exception is Italy because of the traditional dates of San Remo festival.
Rule No3: Do not forget the context. A live finished production (call me Swedish winner) cannot be compared with an impressive video clip. Staging and live vocals are two very very very important factors. Do not get over excited. The live concerts in late April could be more useful.There will be plenty of opprtunities during rehearsals and the nights of the shows.
Rule No4: The first impression is very important. I always make sure to pay attention to a song I'm listening for the first time. Always taking in consideration the context but the majority of the viewers will listen to the songs only one time.
Rule No5: The more difficult to follow! Don't forget the bubble. We hear the song so many times, we read so many analyses and so many different opinions that we forget the basic. Always follow your instict. It's your money and your ideas! Put your money where your mouth is!
My Eurovision Betting Philosophy: Patience, patience and some more patience. There are always opportunities. Even when the voting is in process there is a chance to find some value.
Momentum is another important concept. The country that wins the contest has usually been after the win for a few years. Netherlands was looking for a win since 2013 and making it last year is the perfect example. There is Sweden and Norway that always aiming for the win and it is safe to add Russia to the same category. National final for the first two and money to spend for the later make them favorites every year.
The countries that have created a momentum in the last few years and I will follow them closely are the following:
Italy: 3rd in '15, 6th in'17, 5th in'18 and 2nd last year. Italian artists realised that Eurovision can provide an international audience and that's making a difference. It's a matter of time for Italy to win the contest after almost 30 years.
Belgium: Great streak from '15 to '17 (4th, 10th, 4th) followed by 2 failures to qualify to the final but this year is sending the biggest name in the contest for a while. Hooverphonic is a proof that Belgium is after the win!
Bulgaria: They have spent so much money between 2016-2018 that had to withdraw last year because of lack of funds. Curious to see the level of production.
France: Not so many great results but they show an ambition to win the contest. There were some structural changes this year. We will have to find out when they present their song.
Switzerland: Was it an one off last year? Will they try to capitalise on last year's result?
Australia: They are here to stay and they want to win the trophy! Five participations, four Top-10 results with a 2nd and a 5th place. Australians are investing heavily and eventually they will be rewarded.
