EurovisionBets&Pieces: The Eurovision Finals' Data Analysis that rules them all!!!

Two weeks ago that would be a post about the 2020 market favourites and the trends of the market but it was obvious that this Eurovision was not meant to happen and sadly we have the first contest that was cancelled. Though I do believe that this is the last of the things that we currently have in mind and the decision to cancel was the right thing to do.

I do believe that an era has closed and next year we will have a very different reality in terms of the contest. I am sure that we will see countries withdrawing next year because of lack of funding unless EBU cuts down the cost of participation. We maybe see countries out of Europe participating to balance the numbers but that's something that we will see in the future.

Trying to beat the pre-post cancelled Eurovision depression, I have decided to start posting some technical pieces to keep you some company while being in lockdown and with plenty of time in your hands.

The first post will be about the Finals. I have gathered the split results for the years 2016-2019 plus the years 2014 and 2015. There was a different voting system them, but since we do have available the split results it does help to have a bigger sample in order to be able to draw some conclusions.

The question that I have tried to answer is what's the recipe to become a winner. What's the ideal combination that guarantees the win and here are my findings. Fasten your seatbelt and let's start!!!

Winners' rankings with Juries and Televoting

So far we have the following combinations for the winners

2014: Austria:           J: 1 - TV: 1
2015: Sweden:          J: 1 - TV: 3
2016: Ukraine:         J: 2 - TV: 2
2017: Portugal:        J: 1 - TV: 1
2018: Israel:             J: 3 - TV: 1
2019: Netherlands:  J: 3 - TV: 2

Out of the six winners we do have two clear favorites that won both the Juries and Televoting, two that won one of the two and were 3rd on the other half and two winners that haven't topped either of the two. Netherlands won last year even though it finished third with Juries and second with Televoting and it is more impressive that Italy who finished second was 4th with the Juries and 3rd with the Televoting.

The average Jury rankings for the winners is 1.83 and the Televoting 1.67.

The average points for the winner are 581.7 or 60.85% of the maximum available points that equals to 7.3 pts per jury or televoting.

The best scoring performance was from Portugal 2017 with 758pts, 77.03% of the maximum points or 9.24 pts.

The lowest score for a winner is Netherlands' 2019 498pts, just 51.88% of the available points to grab, an average of 6.23 pts.

The average difference between the winner and the second place is 83.2 points. The biggest lead was in 2017 with 143 points of distance between Portugal and Bulgaria and the smallest mark the 23 points that secured the win for Ukraine in 2016 with Australia coming really close.

What's more important? Winning the Juries or the Televoting?

This is the most interesting part of the analysis. I observed the Top-5s in the final rankings and for Juries and Televoting seperately and these are my findings:

Average rankings with Juries and Televotings from Winner to 5th
Winner:  J: 1.83 - TV: 1.65

2nd:        J: 3      - TV: 2.5

3rd:         J: 5.2    - TV: 4.17

4th:         J: 6.12  - TV: 4.67

5th:         J: 6.5    - TV: 7
There is a pattern there. Televoting tends to score slighlty better than the Juries and that is because Televoting winners tend to have wider margins and score more consistently than the Jury winners! Have a look to the average points for each place for Juries and Televoting individually.

Winner:  J: 299.5 pts / 62.66% of maximum available points
              TV: 337.7 pts/ 70.65% of maximum available points

2nd:        J: 238.8 pts / 49.96% of maximum available points
                TV: 280 pts / 58.58% of maximum available points

3rd:        J: 208.1 pts / 43.54% of maximum available points
              TV: 243.5 pts / 50.94% of maximum available points

4th:        J: 182.1 pts / 38.09% of maximum available points
              TV: 215.5 pts / 45.08% of maximum available points

5th:       J: 160.1 pts / 33.49% of maximum available points
             TV: 183 pts   / 38.28% of maximum available points

Televoting secures a 23-38 pts handicap on every place. We have to go to the 7th place to see Juries scoring better than Televoting ( 134.6 vs 125.8). Finishing 3rd in Televoting is better than finishing 2nd with Juries and gives a clear advantage. The reason for that is the longer tail with the Juries. They tend to distribute their points to more countries. From 7th to 25th Jury points have a higher average than Televoting. Be it professionalism or the exchange of points between allies the jurors tend to vote more countries.

The next thing I did was to check the average rankings on the other half and the final scoreboard for the Top-5s in Juries and Televoting (eg: Jury winner: what's its average ranking in televoting and the average ranking in the combined scoreboard)

Juries
Winner: TV: 5.67  - Final Ranking: 2.5 - Deviation +4.67 / +1.5

2nd:        TV: 7.83 - Final Ranking: 4 - Deviation +5.83 / +2

3rd:         TV: 4     - Final Ranking: 2.83- Deviation +1 / -0.17

4th:          TV: 11.8 - Final Ranking: 6.17 - Deviation +7.8 / +2.17

5th:          TV: 6.33 - Final Ranking: 5.33 - Deviation +1.33 / +0.33

Televoting

Winner:  J: 5.67 - Final Ranking: 2.5 - Deviation +4.67 / +1.5

2nd:         J: 3      - Final Ranking: 1.67 - Deviation +1 / -0.33

3rd:         J: 9.5   - Final Ranking: 3.67 - Deviation +6.5 / +0.67

4th:         J: 7.33 - Final Ranking: 3.83 - Deviation +3.33 / -0.17

5th:         J: 13.83 - Final Ranking: 6.67 - Deviation +8.83 / +1.67

The winners of the individual boards have secured three wins but only have the 2nd best average.

The best place to be is finishing 2nd in televoting that has an average ranking of 1.67. That spot has given two winners and four 2nd place finishings.

The other spot where Juries and Televoters tend to agree more is finishing 3rd with Juries that secures an average ranking of 2.83 and has given the two winners in the last two years: Israel 2018, Netherlands 2019. This is definitely a trend that we should keep in mind

The other important finding is that Televoting tends to be closer to the final rankings with smaller deviations and can survive and bounce back even when the Juries try to punish it.

Televoting has punished a Top-5 jury 6 times, ranking it below Top-10 and forced two of them to finish out of Top-10.

There were 8 cases where a Televoting Top-5 has scored worse than a Top-10 with Juries but none of these discrepancies forced a finishing outside the Top-10.

I hope that find these findings useful for your future bettings or Eurovision analysis. Will try to post as often as possible to keep the conversation going. Please feel free to comment or add any valuable insights.

Eurovision 2020: This is the beginning...

The time has come! Another Eurovision season is ready to start and EurovisionBetsandPieces will be here to keep you company and provide some useful info and stats.

The national final season is here and allocation draw for the Semi Finals will be announced in the next few days.

We will have plenty of time in the following weeks to comment on the songs and I will post a few technical posts regarding the Semis but I would like to use this first post to share some thoughts and tips.

My philosophy during the National Finals season is to get involved as less as possible. I never bet on them and don't even watch. There is a huge amount of energy, data and noise that do not provide enough feedback. I prefer to listen/watch only the songs that have won their final or were chosen to represent a country. There is no point to extend the 2-2.5 months of thinking/projecting/estimating to 4 months.

Rule No2: Never place a bet on Eurovision before all the songs are known. You might lose some value but is more likely to lose lots of money on a false favorite. The last few years it has been the norm that all the favorites and power houses announce their songs in the last weekend before the EBU delegation meeting, the only exception is Italy because of the traditional dates of San Remo festival.

Rule No3: Do not forget the context. A live finished production (call me Swedish winner) cannot be compared with an impressive video clip. Staging and live vocals are two very very very important factors. Do not get over excited. The live concerts in late April could be more useful.There will be plenty of opprtunities during rehearsals and the nights of the shows.

Rule No4: The first impression is very important. I always make sure to pay attention to a song I'm listening for the first time. Always taking in consideration the context but the majority of the viewers will listen to the songs only one time.

Rule No5: The more difficult to follow! Don't forget the bubble. We hear the song so many times, we read so many analyses and so many different opinions that we forget the basic. Always follow your instict. It's your money and your ideas! Put your money where your mouth is!

My Eurovision Betting Philosophy: Patience, patience and some more patience. There are always opportunities. Even when the voting is in process there is a chance to find some value.

Momentum is another important concept. The country that wins the contest has usually been after the win for a few years. Netherlands was looking for a win since 2013 and making it last year is the perfect example. There is Sweden and Norway that always aiming for the win and it is safe to add Russia to the same category. National final for the first two and money to spend for the later make them favorites every year.

The countries that have created a momentum in the last few years and I will follow them closely are the following:

Italy: 3rd in '15, 6th in'17, 5th in'18 and 2nd last year. Italian artists realised that Eurovision can provide an international audience and that's making a difference. It's a matter of time for Italy to win the contest after almost 30 years.

Belgium: Great streak from '15 to '17 (4th, 10th, 4th) followed by 2 failures to qualify to the final but this year is sending the biggest name in the contest for a while. Hooverphonic is a proof that Belgium is after the win!

Bulgaria: They have spent so much money between 2016-2018 that had to withdraw last year because of lack of funds. Curious to see the level of production.

France: Not so many great results but they show an ambition to win the contest. There were some structural changes this year. We will have to find out when they present their song.

Switzerland: Was it an one off  last year? Will they try to capitalise on last year's result?

Australia: They are here to stay and they want to win the trophy! Five participations, four Top-10 results with a 2nd and a 5th place. Australians are investing heavily and eventually they will be rewarded.

Eurovision 2019 Final: Insert Coin...

D-Day is finally here! It has been a long interesting year. Not so intense like the previous years though. My intuition says that we will have a similar scoreboard to 2015.

A clear Winner, a bunch of 6-7 countries getting the high scores on Juries and/or Televoting and the rest spread all over the place. That said, we have a solid Top-8 and then 9th-20th places could have a margin of 60-80 points in total.


My Top-5 hasn't changed much since I posted it on twitter after the running order was revealed:

1. Netherlands: His superiority was never questioned from the market, leading all the way from the day that Russia's song was presented. By far the best voice and performance of the year. Even when he had the technical issues, the price never drifted that much to imply that he is in trouble. The YouTube views and the ratio of likes and dislikes is an extra proof. iTunes charts are there as well. Too short to place money on him now but Netherlands is ready for their first win after 45 years and they deserve it with all the effort they have put to the contest since 2013.

2. Switzerland: When it was presented was considered among the favorites. Then the parties started and suddenly it was forgotten. The same happened during rehearsals and then we saw it live on Thursday and we realised the amounts of energy that brings to the stage. Topping iTunes and great on YouTube views and likes/dislikes ratio. This is the proper Fuego 2.0 or Fuego 2019. If Top-3 with Juries, it might be able to be the dark horse. Was @14 this morning, currently @9.60 and ready to pass Australia as second favorite.

3. Italy: The cool song of the year with a story that is nicely depicted at the background. Mahmood is not everybody's cup of tea and Italy is always an x-factor but deserves to be up there. Not so many YouTube views but this is always the case with the Big-5. Doing ok with iTunes. If Italy made the Top-5 last year with a song that nobody was expecting to be Top-5, Mahmood can go higher.

4. Azerbaijan: The song that created a wow factor during its first rehearsal. Must have been a solid Top-3 during the Semi and has the potential to do great with Televoting. Its main problem is that is fishing with Switzerland at the same pond for votes and has Russia as the main competitor of the ex-soviet voting bloc.

5. Australia: A song that was the joke of the national finals season, managed to be the talk of the week. Amazing staging that will secure a great televoting score and Australia has a good history with juries as well, so I expect it to land in the Top-5. That is its ceiling though.

There are several countries that have a secure spot on the Top-10

6. Sweden: Juries will secure a particularly good score and will definitely have a more decent televoting than Ingrosso but still don't think that it will be enough to take it higher.

7. Russia: Sergey is a great performer and Russia has its way with so many allies available, but the song is almost non-existent. Gives me the impression that could only win the Eurovision circa 1993-1996. Kontopoulos' songs and Fokas' staging belong in an older era.

After that everything is open for me. I do thing that it will be marginal and any of these countries can make it. All of them have flaws but for bragging rights I will go with following

8. Serbia: Quality song that can attract some jury love, add the Balkan allies and you have a score that can secure the Top-10 finishing. If they managed to get 113 points last year, I can't see how they cannot get 180-200 this year.

9. Belarus: My Top-10 surprise. Every year there is a song that goes to Top-10 from nowhere. The first part of my prophecy (scroll down to #14) was successful, so I will go all the way 😂
YouTube views support my theory as well.

10. Greece: Biased alert. I have a soft spot for this song. Even though I'm from Greece, there are only a handful of songs that I have actually liked. This is my favorite ever Greek entry. I do know that the staging is a bit off and elitist (that's Greek as well) but Greece can be a Top-10 with the juries and can get some points from diaspora to secure that spot.

The other Top-10 contenders IMO are France, Iceland, Norway, Spain, Cyprus.

For the last place market Germany is the hot favorite, UK is in close distance (bet you any money that if it lands in Bottom-5 everyone will blame Brexit - Is there a bet for that? -) but my fun bets are Czechia and Denmark @67 and @51.

 Czechia had a similar result back in 2016, lacks allies and is early in the running order.
Denmark is the 4th Scandinavian country in the final and will struggle to find points from televoting or juries. If the margin is around 20 points this is a solid candidate.

And now it's time for my tips. My book was spread like that: 100 units on each Semi and 300 for the final.

My 1st Semi bets were the following

 Semi 1

Poland NQ: 20 units @ 2.00 

Serbia Top-3 at Semi: 20 units @ 4.40 (result will be known after the final)

Iceland NQ: 10 units @ 6.00

Estonia NQ: 25 units @ 2.25

Georgia Q: 25 units @ 3.15

Total after the Semi: 40 units and an open bet for Serbia's Top-3 in the semi

For Semi 2 I have invested the 100 units plus the 40 units from Semi-1 on the following bets

Semi 2 

Armenia NQ : 20 units @2.50

Austria Q: 20 units @ 3.60

Albania NQ: 80 units @ 1.61

Denmark Q: 20 units @ 1.97

Total after the Semi: 89.4 units

That means that my bank for the Final is 389.4 units and here we go! I know that some of you don't have the chance to use the Exchange market, so my prices come from normal betting sites but do use Exchange for better profits if you have the chance.

Final

Winner W/O Netherlands: Switzerland - 189.4 units @ 3.25

Top-4 Italy: 50 units @ 3.50

Top-4 Switzerland: 100 units @ 1.83

And the 50 units that go to my fun bets

Top-10 Belarus: 20 units @ 12.00

Top Nordic Country: Norway 10 units @ 6.50

To Finish Last: Denmark 10 units @ 51.00

To Finish Last: Czechia 10 units @ 67.00

New Total: 0 units

Open Bets: 409.4 units

Switzerland finishing 2nd will be enough to have a good profit.

Best luck to all your bets!

Eurovision Challenge

Unfortunately that 1 point difference between 10th and 11th in the 2nd Semi was probably the reason why I missed Albania's NQ. So back to square 1. My 10 units bet for the final will be

Switzerland Top-4: 10 units @ 1.83

Ps 1: Will update later the comments section with my book and the full 1-26 prediction for the bragging rights.

Ps 2: Would like to thank my partner for her patience these last two months that I was focused on this blog and spending hundreds of hours looking at data and the songs.

Ps 3: This year is kind of strange. It's the first time that David Gould is not around us and his blog and presence are missing. His legacy and posts will always be here though to guide us. I wish he were here to read my posts and give me his valuable feedback.

Ps 4: Thanks to all the guys from the Eurovision betting community for your help and support! Tim, Gavin, Matt, Rob your posts and insights always have an impact on my ways of thinking.

Ps 5: Thank to all you that have spent time to read my posts and hope you found them useful and entertaining.

Eurovision 2019: 2nd Semi Final - Tips/ Eurovision Challenge

We are almost there! After an underwhelming 1st Semi-final is time for the big guns to show up on stage. There are at least 6 songs that can end up in Top-10 and probably 3 in Top-5. You can find the Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings here.

I do believe that it will be a marginal Semi like the first one but with more secured spots. There is a group of 8 countries that one way or the other will qualify to the final and there is another group of 4 countries that will fight for the 2 remaining spots. Fortunately, we don't have San Marino in this Semi...

1. Netherlands (-)

Televoting: 1
Juries: 2

Duncan is on a mission. Technical difficulties have been surpassed and is getting ready for the big night on Saturday.

2. Sweden (+2)

Televoting: 4
Juries: 1

The other hot favorite is ready to shine. Sailing to the final and ready to push Netherlands to its limits.

3. Switzerland (+3)

Televoting: 2
Juries: 4

Lost the momentum before the rehearsals started and seems like it was ages ago when it was among the favorites. That doesn't mean that it lacks the quality for a good finishing.

4. Russia (-2)

Televoting: 6
Juries: 3

Eurovision crowd was expecting something more spectacular. Sergei is vocally perfect; Russia is qualifying but the song does not have winning vibes.

5. Azerbaijan (-)

Televoting: 3
Juries: 6

The first song that built momentum during rehearsals. Going to the final and almost secured Top-10, it's a matter of draw to see if it can do better than that.

6. Malta (-3)

Televoting: 7
Juries: 5

Will be among the pack with the countries that will fight for a Top-10 spot in the final. Had it higher but the clips that I saw lack the energy that is needed for an up-tempo song.

7. Norway (+1)

Televoting: 5
Juries: 9

Televote will be there (no pan intended) to help it sail to the final. Few weeks ago, was thinking that it could be a shock non qualifier but doubt it now.

8. North Macedonia (-1)

Televoting: 8
Juries: 7

The last of the songs that I strongly believe that they will qualify. It does deserve to qualify after all these years. Keeping it simple is the key.

9. Austria (+3)

Televoting: 12
Juries: 8

It's on my list, I want it to qualify but that 12th spot with televoting is the minimum for its qualification. I have liked everything that I have seen so far and will risk saying it's qualifying.

10. Denmark (-)

Televoting: 11
Juries: 10

I have 3 countries with the same total (21) and decided to give the 10th spot to Denmark because of the allies that are on the semi (Sweden, Norway, Latvia, Lithuania). It's a feel-good song and that is always a plus.

11. Romania (+3)

Televoting: 9
Juries: 12

Another tough call. Nice concept but don't know if it will be accessible for juries and televoting. Maybe will be lost in between. Not written off but has a mountain to climb.

12. Armenia (-3)

Televoting: 10
Juries: 11

The running order is the main problem for Armenia with all these favorites coming after it. Slightly aggressive as well. I may be proved wrong with that, but this is my call.

13. Lithuania (-)

Televoting: 13
Juries: 14

In a different year or in a weaker semi this could stand a chance. Tonight, must run away from the lions and the race is not fair.

14. Albania (-3)

Televoting: 14
Juries: 13

Another missed opportunity for Albania. Nice song that feels somehow lost on stage. Running order doesn't do any favors as well.

15. Moldova (+1)

Televoting: 15
Juries: 16

Tried every trick to improve their song but unfortunately there is not much of a song there. Best luck next year.

16. Latvia (+1)

Televoting: 18
Juries: 15

Too lethargic to qualify and way too repetitive. Has some allies that are not able to save it.

17. Ireland (-)

Televoting: 16
Juries: 18

One of the few songs that could not be saved not even from the pimp slot. And we are not in 2022 to create a pan with the title (remember 'Millenium of love'?)

18. Croatia (-)

Televoting: 17
Juries: 17

I am happy that after tomorrow I won't have to listen to that song again.


And now is the time for my tips. As I have already mentioned to my previous posts, my book is split in 100 units for each Semi and 300 units for the final. The units that are won on each semi can be used to the 2nd Semi and Final. I have a return of 40 units from Poland's NQ and an open bet for Serbia's Top-3 in the semi.

Last week I gave my first tip regarding Semi 2

Semi 2 

Armenia NQ : 20 units @2.50

Semi 1 New Total : 80 units

I have 120 (80 remaining + 40 from Semi 1) more units to bet and will invest them as following

Austria Q: 20 units @ 3.60

Albania NQ: 80 units @ 1.61

Denmark Q: 20 units @ 1.97

Open Bets: 140 units

New Total for Semi 2: 0 units

Just Albania would be enough to bring almost my entire investment back. The maximum return is 290.2 units.

Eurovision Challenge!!!

Having so many friends and people that watch the contest but do not bet regularly, I decided to create a Game/ Challenge to keep them interested. I call it the Eurovision Challenge and is very simple. I have estimated that if  I place an original bet of 10 pounds/euros/dollars on the 1st Semi at a price around the 1.50-1.70 area and keep betting the winnings on the next semi and then final and the semi etc, in 5 years time and if all the bets are successful, that amount can go up to 10.000 pounds/euros/dollars!!! Are you ready for it?

If the bet is lost, will start again with the same amount on the next contest. So here we go

Semi Final 1 - 2019: Poland NQ 10 x 1.90 = 19 

The first bet is won and we move to the 2nd round!!!

Semi Final 2 - 2019: Albania NQ 19 x 1.61 = 30.59

Good luck to everyone with your bets and let's have a great show!

The aftermath of Semi Final 1

Semi Final 1 is history now and we do have our 10 finalists.

Australia, Greece, Iceland, Serbia, Cyprus, Serbia, Belarus, Slovenia, Estonia, San Marino will be heard again this Saturday.

The non qualifying shocker was Hungary and looking at the number of views in youtube, it's clear that the public did not vote for it even though I'm sure that it was Top-10 with the juries.

The shock qualifier is of course San Marino, that must have been Top-5 with the televoting to make it to the final.

Jan Ola Sand tweeted this morning that it was a close race with the 10th place being only 2 points away from 11th  and also mentioned that Juries and Televoting disagreed twice for their Top-10. That is a sign that there is a trend that started last year with songs being less balanced and opting to attract either the voters or the juries.

Personally I got 7/10 but was aware that Belarus and Estonia were marginal and could make it to the final. I had Belgium and Georgia to my Top-10 and I do think that Georgia missed it by far and Belgium might have ended 12th or 13th. Looking at the views I reckon that Estonia was saved by the Juries and Portugal was killed by them.

Regarding the Top-3 and the winner of the Semi, Australia must be the winner and Serbia looks like a secured Top-3. The 3rd country is either Greece or Iceland with Czechia having a slight chance as well. These 5 countries will have a gap on the scoreboard with the rest of the field.

Betting wise I have a return of 40 units from Poland's NQ and an open bet with Serbia being Top-3 in the Semi that can give me back 88 units and secure a profit for the 1st Semi.

And for those that played Eurovision Challenge we have 19 units to invest to the next Semi!. 14 bets to go and reach the 10.000 units!

Tonight I will post again for tomorrow's Semi Final 2 but let's have a look at the current Winner's market.

Netherlands is shortening since Sunday after the rumors that the extra technical rehearsal was good. Currently @ 2.70 .

France and Australia were two overreactions of the market that slowly regressed and went back to 22 and 12. At one point they were trading @ 7.00.

Sweden is still the 2nd favourite stable @ 7.00. Russia is also trading @ 12 and is followed by Azerbaijan, Iceland and Italy. Switzerland and Malta close the current Top-10.

Nothing is over yet and there is that group of countries that can end up everywhere and of course do not forget those countries that go under the radar to land on Top-5 and Top-10. We have always one in each Top.

It is important to mention that we do have a favorite packed second half with Italy, Spain, France from Big-5 plus Iceland, Australia are all there. Only 3 more spots available there.

Will post later tonight with my thoughts about tomorrow and my tips for Semi 2.

For those in twitter you can find my comments and thoughts there as well

https://twitter.com/eurovisionbets

Eurovision 2019: 1st Semi Final - Tips / Eurovision Challenge

Finally it's time!!! The day that we have been waiting for is finally here! The 1st Semi is by far the weakest of the year but that does not mean that is an easy one to predict. Things changed during the rehearsals, and we do have new dynamics but there are a few points that I would like to mention before moving to the breakdown of the qualifiers and non-qualifiers.

The true and most valuable flow of information and data will start running the time we see the songs live on stage. Currently, there is only a handful of people that has seen and can evaluate the dynamics of each song. The market has 7 songs as certain qualifiers (1.03-1.27), 2 almost certain qualifiers (1.45-1.48) and a marginal qualifier (Estonia 1.82). A useful reminder is that the market has failed to find all 10 qualifiers in the last 10 semis. The usual number is 9 and some 8s but last year was the only time with 3 misses on the 1st Semi and the 2nd Semi had 2 as well. This was the result of the discrepancies between Televoting, and Juries and it will be interesting to see if we do have the same trend.

For those of you that need some numbers to help you with your bets this is a list of previous posts that might be handy when placing your bets.

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/04/eurovision-2019-know-your-numbers.html

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/04/eurovisionbetsandpieces-one-eurovision.html

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/04/eurovisionbetsandpieces-one-eurovision_23.html

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/05/eurovision-2019-semi-final-1-pre.html

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/05/eurovision-2019-first-blood.html

And now let's see where we stand for Semi final 1 in a Power Ranking form

1. Greece (-)

Televoting: 1 
Juries: 1

Sailing to the final. The question is if it will attract enough momentum to go after a Top-5 spot on the final.

2. Serbia (+2)

Televoting: 3 
Juries: 2

One of the songs that stepped up and deserves to qualify to the final. There things will be more difficult.

3. Australia (+7)

Televoting: 2 
Juries: 3

One of the songs that grew from rehearsal to rehearsal and is currently 5th favorite to win the whole thing. Let's not overreact. Running order will be decisive for a Top-5 finish.

4. Cyprus (-2)

Televoting: 4 
Juries: 6

It deserves to be lower and would be willing to bet for a shock non-qualification if in Semi 2, but Cyprus has enough allies to help.

5. Hungary (+4)

Televoting: 7 
Juries: 4

The good thing about having a balanced song and some experience in staging your song. Hungary is in!

6. Czechia (-1)

Televoting: 6
Juries: 5

The advantage of having a catchy song that comes after 2-3 bland ones. Might be slightly lower but will definitely qualify.

7. Iceland (-4)

Televoting: 5 
Juries: 7

Even my numbers say that it will sail to the final, but if i had to choose a shocker non qualifier, this is it. This is an interesting case study of what's the limit on a song with ambition to win.

8. Slovenia (-1)

Televoting: 8
Juries: 9

After the first 6-7 songs i do believe that no one is safe. Slovenia makes the cut on my list but it will be marginal. For those who are willing to risk it, NQ is @ 2.75.

9. Belgium (-1)

Televoting: 9 
Juries: 8

Neither Belgium is safe, but I believe that will get enough jury support to save it.

10. Georgia (+7)

Televoting: 11 
Juries: 10

I know that this a bold prediction, but the song has all the drama, sentiments, and narrative that better songs have failed to create. Has some friends as well that can help it a bit.

11. Portugal (-5)

Televoting: 10
Juries: 13

From favorite to win the contest, fighting to qualify! These have been 3 long months for Portugal! It's not written off but I'm afraid to touch it even @ 2.64. Will wait to see it live and then act.

12. Poland (-1)

Televoting: 12
Juries: 12

We are still in the area where there are hopes but coming from #4 and with all the madness coming after, this will be forgotten.

13. Estonia (-1)

Televoting: 14
Juries: 11

The unluckiest of all the songs this year, being sandwiched between Iceland and Portugal and Greece coming after that as well. 1.82 has value for those who believe in it.

14. Belarus (+1)

Televoting: 15 
Juries: 14

We are now entering the dark area where no light exists. Belarus has some very very very slim chances but needs to nail a Top-5/6 televoting to make it. Is that possible? I think it's difficult.

15. San Marino (-1)

Televoting: 13
Juries: 17

You can now live all your hopes outside. Serhat is not even pretending to be singing. Extremely poor song that cannot be saved even from pimp slot.

16. Montenegro (-)

Televoting: 17
Juries: 15

Avoiding the last place is the only target. Might secure some points from Serbia and Slovenia to avoid it.

17. Finland (-4)

Televoting: 16
Juries: 16

Nothing can save Finland from a poor score.

And now the Tips for the Semi. As I have already mentioned to my previous post, my book is split in 100 units for each Semi and 300 units for the final. The units that are won on each semi can be used to the 2nd Semi and Final. So far, my book for the 1st Semi is:

Semi 1

Poland NQ: 20 units @ 2.00 

Semi 1 New total : 80 units

I still have 80 units to spend and i will split them like this

Serbia Top-3 at Semi: 20 units @ 4.40 (result will be known after the final)

Iceland NQ: 10 units @ 6.00

Estonia NQ: 25 units @ 2.25

Georgia Q: 25 units @ 3.15

Semi 1 new Total: 0 units

As you can see, i just need any 2/5 bets to get my my money back and need 3 or more to have a decent profit. The best-case scenario gives me 323 units back.


Eurovision Challenge!!!

Having so many friends and people that watch the contest but do not bet regularly, I decided to create a Game/ Challenge to keep them interested. I call it the Eurovision Challenge and is very simple. I have estimated that if  I place an original bet of 10 pounds/euros/dollars on the 1st Semi at a price around the 1.50-1.70 area and keep betting the winnings on the next semi and then final and the semi etc, in 5 years time and if all the bets are successful, that amount can go up to 10.000 pounds/euros/dollars!!! Are you ready for it?

If the bet is lost, will start again with the same amount on the next contest. So here we go

Semi Final 1 - 2019: Poland NQ 10 x 1.90 if i win the bet, 19 pounds/euros/dollars will be invested on the 2nd Semi and so on. If not I will bet 10 units in Semi 2 and continue from there.

Good luck to everybody with your bets! I will be posting every day until next Sunday. Let me know about your thoughts and qualifiers!