There's no Going Back! (Meow)

 

This has been the wildest week in Eurovision history for sure. 

The last 48hrs have been the absolute madness and there hasn't been a single hour without a new drama unfolding.

Everything started in Thursday night, just after the finish of Semi - Final 2 and the accidental release of the 'partial'? Italian televote where Israel was land sliding the win.

There was a snowball effect with Israel's price crashing from mid 40s to 4s-5s making Israel the second favorite to win after Croatia.

And then there was another drama unfolding yesterday with the Dutch representative Joost allegedly attacking an EBU employee and just a few hours ago it was decided that Netherlands will not be participating in the Eurovision Grand Final reducing the lineup to twenty five entries. 

Netherlands will be able to vote though, like Serbia and Montenegro did back in 2006. 

In between them, there was the decision for the Running Order of the Final and I do reckon we have witnessed an intervention from EBU to make sure that two things will not be happening tonight:

1. Israel doesn't win and

2. Ukraine does not win either.

Israel got the Malta '21 treatment given #6 and Ukraine got the death slot #2, something that has never happened to a contender in the past. Netherlands was also sacrificed at #5 to reduce the Israeli public somehow but Joost had other plans. The message is we sacrifice the recent winners and give the contenders that have not won for a while the chance to win.

The biggest winners were Croatia #22 now, Switzerland #20 and France #24. Croatia got the most favorable slot just a few spots before the closing which is the optimal place to be and Switzerland is coming first after a not so strong part of the Final. France has the latest draw of all to boost a bit its public vote score where it needs help.

Baby Lasagna had the underdog label for the whole season but he was transformed in stage to a powerful character that can carry the stadium and the viewers with him. The public loves him and I reckon that the televoters and the pure fans of the Contest will unite under his umbrella to save the Contest from the unthinkable that would have been an Israeli win this year.

EBU is trying everything in its power to help him win as well and a Croatian win could signal the return of some Balkan countries back in the Contest, now that the tank is getting empty.

Nemo has been remarkable on stage delivering a faultless performance. He is the most probable Jury winner from last night and the audience poll in the stadium suggested that his public vote appeal is bigger than the one the market suggested, something that I have highlighted in my contender's analysis some time ago.

It all comes down to how the public will react to the possibility of an Israeli win and if they will split the votes between Croatia and Switzerland or will sacrifice some votes to support Croatia. Switzerland is not chanceless yet and could be close to Croatia.

Netherlands' absence might send some regional public votes his way though. 

Israel was always the x factor and it is very surprising that the market was caught off guard  with the fear of missing out spreading fast since Thursday night. 

There was always the speculation that the Israeli public vote would be really high because of the diaspora and pro-Israeli supporters and they have played the 'victim' card really nice. We still do not know the extent of this, but there will be jurors that will blank this one to make sure that they will not win. 

These are the three contenders for tonight in my opinion and it could a close race. There was this narrative floating around the whole season that we will end up with a winner in the 400-450 points threshold. 

Many analyses out there were suggesting that this is the most possible outcome, however with everything that has happened in the last few days, I do expect the opposite. 

My prediction is that we will have a Top-2 in the 500+ close to 600 points area with a third entry way over the 400 points with the rest of the pack following from distance.

Here is my breakdown for tonight and some thoughts about how the night could evolve

1. Croatia

Estimated Points: 545-600 (Tv: 320-350 - Juries: 225-250)

There was the notion that Croatia would struggle with Juries but Baby Lasagna was more than strong last week and a Top-3 there is more than possible, especially now that some Juries will back him to prevent Israel winning.

Anything above 175 points could be enough.

Metrics to watch out: Croatia needs a 75-100 points headstart from Israel and be less than 100 points behind Switzerland to secure the win.

2. Switzerland

Estimated Points: 520 - 560 (Tv: 240-260 - Juries: 280-300)

Metrics to watch out: It all depends on how high Switzerland can go with the Public vote and how big will be their lead with the Juries. Could be the deciding factor for Israel's loss if the Jury score reaches the 300 points threshold leaving a breathing space to them and /or Croatia. 

If they can reach the 325 threshold, they can actually win.

Nemo does deserve to finish up there and Top-3 is a lock in my opinion. 

3. Israel

Estimated Points: 390 - 440 (Tv: 320-350 - Juries: 60-80)

Performing at #5 suggests that their potential public vote lead is controllable. I do think that their televote estimation is the worst case scenario and I do think that the Juries will try to balance it.

If they end up with the win, EBU will be left with a very damaged product for the '25 edition and Pandora's box will be open. 

Metrics to watch out: 100-125 jury points and people will start sweating, 150+ and Israel should be considered the winner. Assuming that their Jury result will be low, we will know their televote score quite early.

4. France

Estimated Points: 320 - 375 (Tv: 100-125 - Juries: 220-250)

Metrics to watch out: Slimane relies on his jury score to secure a Top-4/5 result and I do think he will be there in the end.

5. Ukraine

Estimated Points: 310 - 360 (Tv: 190-220 - Juries: 120-140)

Ukraine has been the major victim of the running order but getting a third political win in the last eight years would not be fair for the other participants. 

Could have been a Top-3 contender if later in the draw, and there is a minor chance this still happens if the diaspora backs them. Top-5 should be considered a safe bet.

Metrics to watch out: This will be a case study for the power of the Ukrainian diaspora and how strong that diaspora is in terms of affecting the public vote results. 

6. Italy 

Estimated Points: 250-300 (Tv: 100-125 - Juries: 150-175)

Italy got a running order in the middle, far away from the other contenders but could also be the entry that will suffer the most from the polarized voting tonight.

Italy could potentially sneak in Top-5 but I reckon it is more probable to be a few places lower than higher from where I currently have them.

7. Ireland

Estimated Points: 210-250 (Tv: 170-190 - Juries: 40-60)

8. Greece 

Estimated Points: 190-235 (Tv: 110-135 - Juries: 80-100)

9. Portugal 

Estimated Points: 165-210 (Tv: 40-60 - Juries: 125-150)

10. Lithuania

Estimated Points: 160-200 (Tv: 100-120 - Juries: 60-80)

11. Sweden

Estimated Points: 130-175 (Tv: 30-50 - Juries: 100-125)

12. Latvia 

Estimated Points: 120-165 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 100-125)

13. UK

Estimated Points: 100-140 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 80-100)

14. Serbia

Estimated Points: 100-140 (Tv: 30-50 - Juries: 70-90)

15. Georgia

Estimated Points: 85-125 (Tv: 60-80 - Juries: 25-45)

16. Armenia

Estimated Points: 60-100 (Tv: 40-60 - Juries: 20-40)

17. Estonia

Estimated Points: 55-90 (Tv: 50-75 - Juries: 5-15)

18. Norway

Estimated Points: 40-80 (Tv: 20-40 - Juries: 20-40)

19. Spain

Estimated Points: 35-75 (Tv: 15-35 - Juries: 20-40)

20. Cyprus

Estimated Points: 45-70 (Tv: 20-30 - Juries: 25-40)

21. Luxembourg

Estimated Points: 30-70 (Tv: 10-30 - Juries: 20-40)

22. Germany

Estimated Points: 30-65 (Tv: 5-20 - Juries: 25-45)

23. Slovenia

Estimated Points: 25-60 (Tv: 5-20 - Juries: 20-40)

24. Finland

Estimated Points: 10-40 (Tv: 10-30 - Juries: 0-10)

25. Austria

Estimated Points: 5-25 (Tv: 5-15 - Juries: 0-10)

Before getting to my betting tips for tonight a few words about my personal book this season. 

Croatia or Switzerland winning the Contest will be enough to have my most profitable Eurovision season ever, backing them both from the early days of their releases. 

I have a position on Israel just to break even in case they win, having already cashed out the biggest part of my position there.

I have neither backed or laid Italy and Ukraine throughout the season and had a small amount on Netherlands being very happy with that strategy coming with a small amount of dead money the night of the Final. 

I have also backed Croatia in the Top-3/4 market earlier this month and last month in longer odds and have also France in Top-4/5 markets.

Portugal, Greece and Lithuania are my calls for the Top-10 market and have some positions in the Top-15 on Latvia, Georgia, Portugal and UK, all the 2.50-4.50 area.

For the last place contention I have Austria and Luxembourg as my main contenders again at double digit odds.

And now the time you were waiting for...The tips for tonight. My Semi - Final bets have been subpar this year, chasing some values there that did not turn into profit. My only remorse is that I should have had Belgium NQ there as well, but I did mention that it was on my book and also tweeted during the show so I do hope that some of you followed that as well.

Having 0 units returned from the Semi - Finals I have 800 units available for the Final. 

I am not tipping Croatia, currently at 1.96 just because I think there is no real value there at the moment, but I do think this is our Winner tonight and I wish you have backed him earlier in the season.

In my betting resolution for this year, I have mentioned that I am aiming for the accuracy this year so I will keep my promise and just make three suggestions for tonight 

Portugal To Finish in Top-15 @ 2.60 (Bf Exchange) x 300 units

Greece To Finish in Top-10 @ 1.83 (Bf Exchange) x 300 units

Top-Nordic Sweden @ 2.06 (Bf Exchange) x 150 units

 and will add 50 units for my fun bets

Austria To Finish Last @ 19.50 (Bf Exchange) x 25 units

Portugal to Finish in Top-10 @ 7.60 (Bf Exchange) x 25 units

Good luck with your bets tonight. I do hope that will find my post useful for the long night that is ahead of us.

I wish I could have given you more insight and suggestions about bets but it has been crazy the last few days trying to catch up with all the dramas unfolding.

I will be active on X later tonight to comment on the results and of course, don't forget to listen to the latest episode of Talk About Things with Panos and Matt.

Finding Nemo...

 

Semi - Final 1 belongs to the past with a few 'surprise' results there.

The biggest surprise of all was Slovenia that managed to qualify almost out of nowhere. I reckon that we did have a close race for the #9-#12 spots and Slovenia scraped through by a very small margin.

There wasn't a shocker non qualifier. Poland could be considered a surprise result but in reality it wasn't. This has been the weakest entry vocally in the whole lineup and the Polish diaspora decided not to support their entry. It has happened again in the past, I did mention it to my SF-1 analysis but decided not to bet against them.

Serbia was always a borderline entry and could have gone either way. Still happy with my bet against them because there was value (2.48 for a coin toss). Here is my analysis for SF-1 for those who missed it and now is time to focus on tonight's outcome.

This is a tougher Semi - Final to crack down with thirteen entries that still stand a chance to qualify. The difference in quality between the two Semi - Finals is enormous with Semi - Final 2 carrying 7-8 potential Top-10 entries in its lineup so the qualification bar is set really high for tonight and no mistakes are allowed.

Malta is opening the Semi and the staging has been improved very much. It does work as a show opener, however the comparisons with 'SloMo' and 'Unicorn' choreos will be unavoidable and Malta is traditionally suffering with the Public vote. 

Malta not to qualify over 1.30 is fair and could be used for a combo bet.

Albania has taken out anything that reminded of Albania song and stage wise when their target group is the Albanian diaspora. Add the death slot and you have the perfect coctail for disaster tonight. 

Having three straight qualifiers coming from #2 when there were only two in ten years until the SF-2 last year is a big ask. 

I will do the same thing I did with Poland in SF-1 and leave Albania alone just because there is no point of taking a risk for a non qualification at 1.25 and I have no motive or data to back them.

Greece is sailing to the Final but is a missed opportunity in my opinion. They have taken many risks this year with 'Zari' and I am delighted that they did, but the staging is very underwhelming. Many ideas thrown at the same time with the hope that they could work all together but they don't. 

I find the staging very basic with a choreo we have seen many times in the past. 

I mentioned to the podcast last night something that could potentially hurt Greece's result tonight. Tonight there is a football game in Greece with Olympiakos playing against Aston Villa to qualify to the Europa Conference League final. It could be the first time that a Greek team will play in a football European Final since 1970! 

I do expect the majority of diaspora and the majority of the Greek audience in Greece as well to watch that game tonight instead of the Semi - Final. There is a big chance for the Greek score tonight to be lower of what it could have been.

Add to that the fact that Marina is under the weather and Switzerland is performing after them and there are enough reasons to oppose a good result for Greece in Semi - Final.

For those who bet in Greece and Cyprus stoiximan offers 

Greece not to finish in SF Top-3 @1.60 and Greece not to finish in SF Top-5 @2.67.

There is huge value there and the Top-5 would have been my main bet for tonight if my tips were for Greece only.

Switzerland is coming for win on Saturday but they do want to make a statement tonight as well. Nemo is delivering a faultless performance running and jumping around on stage without missing any notes and the crowd loves it. 

Last night they unexpectedly won the audience poll by a vote against Netherlands and that was a very good sign for Saturday night's Public vote appeal.

To win the Semi - Final at 4.50 is a bit short but would be tempted to place a fun bet later tonight if these odds drift to the 6.00+ area.

Czechia is next and I have tp admit that Aiko has been probably the biggest improvement of the whole season. One of the few revamps that is actually working and a very powerful staging that serves the purpose of the song. 

The current odds for qualification are at 4.60 and I would not try to change someone's mind if they are backing Czechia but they are not in my book for tonight.

I will not be surprised if they make it.

Austria has been circled as a potential non qualifier candidate since the first time I heard the song and two months after we are heading to that direction. 

Kaleen performing after Slimane is one of the biggest downgrades in vocal abilities in the whole contest. Like Matt mentioned in the podcast, you can see the fear in her eyes while performing and she does look very vulnerable to be honest. 

Austria is building a tradition in the last few years overhyping their entries that in the end fail or underperform on stage and the same will happen tonight.

'We Will Rave' has everything lined-up to become Halo 2.0 and this will be my main bet for tonight. Currently Austria not to qualify trades in the 2.75-3.00 area. I got it as high as 6.50 a few weeks ago and I do think it will be odds on later tonight.

Denmark is my candidate for the last place tonight. Saba was very shaky yesterday from the very first verse and there are parts of the song that she still cannot sing. 

The song is radio friendly but does not work in a contest and Denmark's recent bad track record will continue.

Denmark not to qualify at 1.30-1.35 could be used in a NQ combo

Armenia was in the conversation for the Final's Top-10 a few weeks ago but the rehearsals yesterday left me cold. I expected the crowd to be carried away and create a party atmosphere but that was clearly not the case. 

They have enough friends and allies to qualify easily but not sure about their impact on Saturday. 

Again for those betting in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers Armenia not to Finish in SF-2 Top-5 at 2.02 and I have taken that bet personally.

Latvia picked in late January when things were still foggy in most countries and since then they are spiraling from a Top-10 candidate to a 100% non qualifying entry. 

The song is not bad but the staging and Dons denial to stare at the camera are the main reasons Latvia will prolong its non qualifying streak.

San Marino was the biggest surprise yesterday having one of the most refreshing and full of energy staging. 

Coming after Spain, is a great reminder for the Spanish audience to support Megara and guarantee their 12 points. Add a few more from Italy's public vote as well and I find no reason San Marino cannot find the 30-35 points missing for the qualification threshold. 

I have been backing them for a while and did the same yesterday as well during their rehearsal. 

San Marino to qualify at 3.25 in Betfair Exchange will be my other tip for tonight and there is still value there.

Georgia has killed any conversation for a potential failure since the pre-parties and Nutsa is oozing energy on stage. She is a strong performer and the song might be a bit generic but applies all the fundamentals great and will be sailing to the Final. No value in current odds though.

Belgium the other strong candidate for a shocker non qualification. I have been backing that since the pre-parties and the running order does not help them at all.

Coming after San Marino and Georgia and before Estonia and Italy could massively hurt its chances being the only slow tempo song.

Mustii's egocentricity and aggressiveness does not help its cause either. The song it has enough quality to qualify and for that reason I will only tip it on a fun bet combo.

Estonia is much slicker than it used to be in its national final and they are sailing to the Final. This is by far the best odds on value for a qualifier. 

Estonia to qualify at 1.41 in Betfair exchange is a value bet.

Israel has a simple but effective staging and is jury oriented, knowing that their diaspora will back them either way. There were many boos in the evening but not enough to disrupt the performance. 

This is an extra motive for their diaspora to support them. There is no value in any bet for them being the biggest unknown in this season.

Norway is there offering a great spectacle that goes unnoticed for the whole season and I tend to believe that I belong to the small minority that likes this one. 

Stoiximan has a great value bet that I have already taken. 

Norway to score 0-65 points in the SF @13 

Netherlands is a great way to close the show and Joost is excellent on stage. The have taken 100% the fun direction and have admitted that they have no winning ambitions. 

I was expecting a better result in the audience poll that did not come and still expect them to win tonight but the 300+ points in Public vote that many were/are expecting on Saturday feels now just wishful thinking and not something that could happen. 

The Dutch have overhyped their entry and the bar was raised too high for what their entry was.

Still a candidate for the Top-5 in the Final though.

And now my prediction for the Semi -Final is

1. Netherlands 160-180pts

2. Switzerland 150-170

3. Israel 100-120

4. Georgia 90-110

5. Estonia 80-100

6. Greece 60-80

7. Armenia 55-75

8. Norway 50-70

9. San Marino 40-60

10. Belgium 30-50

11. Czechia 25-45

12. Albania 20-40

13. Austria 15-35

14. Latvia 10-30

15. Malta 10-25

16. Denmark 5-20

I am very confident for my Top-8 and I do think that San Marino will also make the cut but not sure at all about Belgium.

And now time for my betting tips.

There will be three in total, with two main bets and a fun bet as well

Austria lay @ 1.36 (NQ approx 4.05) in Betfair Exchange x 50 units

San Marino to Qualify @ 3.20 Betfair Exchange x 45 units

Austria and Belgium not to Qualify combo @13.5 (Betfair sportsbook) x 5 units

Any of the three bets would give me a great return and I am happy with the value each of these bets holds.

Good luck with your bets tonight and stay tunned for a new 'Talk About Things' episode tomorrow about the running order.

 

Crown Rim Tim Tagi Dim!

 

It is almost six months since the day we have heard the first song for the season and here we are! 

Semi - Final 1 is here to entertain us and the two halves feel like the yin and yang.

The first half is one of the stronger we ever had while the second one is one of the weakest ever.

We had the conversation throughout the season that the impossible would happen and we could have 7/7 qualifications from the first half, something that has never happened.

The market suggests that it will happen, but I am more optimistic with a 6/7. If there is justice, all seven should have qualified because the second half does not have more than three entries that deserve to be in the Final. 

So these are my thoughts for tonight.

Cyprus is sailing to the Final being the ideal opener. Its current odds are at 1.31 fair but with no value in my opinion.

Serbia has an entry that if in second half, would have easily qualified to the Final, but this is not an ordinary lineup and Serbia has everything against them. Very few allies and diaspora present in the Semi - Final, the death slot at #2. Since 2013 that we have the producers choosing the running order, there were only 3 entries that managed to be in the Public vote's Top-10 (Armenia x 2, Poland) both countries with big enough diaspora to back them and help them qualify. 

Add to that the fact that Serbia is qualifying with difficulty every year and I think the time for a non qualification has come after 2013, when they failed to qualify performing from the pimp slot. 

The first half of 'Ramonda' is taking a while to lift off and that might cost them. Having the three direct qualifiers also performing prolongs the duration of the Semi - Final as well and Serbia will be forgotten by the time we reach the last entry.

I have been laying Serbia since the running order was decided and this will be my main bet for tonight. The lay is currently at 1.67 (NQ 2.48). I will be happy if they qualify but for all the reasons mentioned above the non qualification is the value bet.

Lithuania will be battling for a spot in the Top-3 of the Semi - Final currently at 2.76 in the exchange market. There is a precedent in Semi - Final 2 back in 2018 (Public vote only) where all three entries finishing in Top-3 came from the first half. I will not tip it but I do have it in my book. 

Ireland has produced one of the best theatrical three minutes we have ever seen in Eurovision. They have gone all in and that was the proper way to do it. Bambie Thug is a great performer and this will be the talk of the town in the next few days. The Irish are ready to go crazy and I could see this one trading in single odds if they get a second half draw. Of course Ireland is not winning Eurovision, but in a public vote only Semi - Final they could finish in Top-3 (1.70 Bf exchange).

I do find the odds a bit short but I have taken a different bet with Ireland included. 

For those betting in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers forecasts (1-2) for the Semi - Finals and the combination 1.Croatia - 2. Ireland is at 13!!! This could be a fun bet or a moderate bet, a low risk high rewards approach.

Ukraine is the first contender for the night and the market has not been impressed. The problem is that their staging is missing a story. There are beautiful shots that are not connected to each other and the two girls interact only in the last few seconds. Top-3 in the Semi is more or less secured but there is no value in my opinion. 

Poland is the weakest entry vocally in that first half and maybe the whole Semi- Final. The qualifying odds are very short but Poland has never had a problem being in Top-10 with the Public vote (only '21 missed the Top-10) and even though I am tempted, I will leave Luna alone.

I would not be surprised whatever the outcome is tonight.

Croatia was trading at 5+ just a week ago and currently is trading at 2.32! I have been backing Croatia since late January so I am more than happy with my position on them. Winning the Semi - Final at 1.32 feels short but there is no chance someone else is winning tonight.

Baby Lasagna is improving every time he is on stage and the staging has improved a lot since Dora two and a half months ago. 

The crowds' reactions yesterday and the singalong in the second part along with the closing seconds are the only winning vibes we have seen so far this year.

Iceland coming after Croatia I reckon is EBU's payback time for what happened in Iceland's national final and a subtle way to send a message for the future. The weakest entry of all this year by far.

Slovenia has gradually lost ground and the staging has not added anything to help their cause. Raiven is vocally excellent but these are three very long minutes in a very underwhelming part of the Semi - Final and only Serbia and Croatia there to secure them 12-18 points. They will need more than 45-50 to feel safe and I struggle to see where they will come from. My average lay on them is at 1.94 but there is no value there currently.

Finland it is what it is and I do believe that it will qualify but I don't think it will do particularly well. It is fun but does not really offer a reason for someone to vote for it. If we had the 50/50 system I would be tempted to oppose it but there is no reason to do it now.

Moldova is the biggest riser since yesterday and not only is back in the qualification race but I do believe that it will qualify, favored by the four entries coming before it. It gives them credibility, the staging is simple but effective and Natalia's vocal abilities do stand out. It is trading at 5 to qualify in various betting companies and this is the best value odds someone can find tonight. 

The fair odds should have been at 2.50-2.75 so I am happy to lose that bet everyday. This will be the second tip for tonight.

Azerbaijan does not have a bad song but there is no reason for someone to vote for them. Last place in the Semi - Final could happen.

Australia has a simple but beautiful staging but I am not sure the casual viewers will vote an aboriginal song and how relevant could that be for Eurovision. The last thirty seconds are very shaky as well. Australia is a borderline by definition and could go both ways. I am not tipping something here but I do think that Moldova will be the one to claim that last ticket.

Portugal has the best minimalistic staging of all entries and it does suit their entry 100%. A few weeks ago were trading at odds on and currently their qualifications odds are at 1.28. A bit short for my taste.

For the bettors in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers  a Head to head versus Slovenia at 1.66. This could be used to maximize the qualification value.

Luxembourg will be closing the Semi - Final and there are multiple mentions during the show about their return after 31 years. Sailing to the Final.

For the bettors in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers the Top-5 in Semi - Final at 2.35 and there is definitely value there.

My classification for tonight is the following

1. Croatia 140-160 pts

2. Ireland 110-130 pts

3. Ukraine 100-120 pts

4. Lithuania 90-110

5. Luxembourg 70-90

6. Finland 60-80

7. Cyprus 55-75

8. Poland 50-70

9. Portugal 50-65

10. Moldova 45-65

11. Serbia 35-55

12. Australia 30-50

13. Slovenia 25-45

14. Azerbaijan 15-35

15. Iceland 0-10

I do think that the first nine entries are more or less certain qualifiers and the tenth spot will be a battle between Moldova, Serbia and Australia. 

And now the fun time!! My tips for the Semi - Final. You can read my betting resolution for 2024 here.

I have 1000 units to invest, split in 100 units per Semi - Final and 800 units for the Final. The settled units from Semis could be used again in Semi 2 and/or Final. 

I have decided to minimize my bets and aim for accuracy this year so there will be only two tips for Semi - Final 1

Serbia lay @ 1.67 (NQ 2.48) x 75 units

Moldova to qualify @ 5.00 (multiple companies) x 25 units

Good luck to your bets tonight! I will be active in X after the Semi - Final to comment on the results.

Semi - Final 1 - Dress rehearsal

 

Here we are then! The first Dress Rehearsal for the Semi -Final 1 is coming to an end in a few minutes. 

SVT has prepared a beautiful show and there are many familiar faces opening the Semi - Final. 

The postcards start with two former entries of each country and that might be a problem with some nations that have not been that successful in the recent past.

But is time to have a look to the contestants.

Cyprus is a great choice for the opening act. The dark background does create a beautiful contrast with Silia's and dancers' white clothes that represent innocence and youth. Silia is vocally fine and this is sailing to the Final.

Serbia has better camera angles than the ones that we saw last week but it is very dark in some parts with Teya Dora almost invincible. Similar staging to PZE with a few minor changes. The last minute with the ramonda flower rising from the rock is the moment. Could it be enough for them to qualify? Still puzzled with this one. 

Lithuania has a similar staging to the national final and it is slick. Lithuania still going under the radar for a Top-10 result imo. Very powerful.

Ireland is by far the moment of the Semi - Final. Bambie Thug is giving a theatrical show for the ages. Aggressive? Yes! Not everyone's cup of tea? Yes! But it works!!! Ireland is back in the Final and will be the talk of the town the next few days. A great bet that Ireland has taken and now is paying dividends! Bambie was out of breath by the end and the Crown the Witch moto at the background is the perfect closing for this three minute experience.

UK has a great staging as well, overly sensual but impressive at the same time. Juries will mark this one high for the staging concept but Olly was shaky at times. 

Ukraine has used the best part of their entry in the 30 seconds snippet that propelled their odds. The staging is beautiful but it feels a bit incoherent. Beautiful shots and ideas on stage that are missing a specific narrative and story. There is very little connection and interaction between the two girls. Ukraine should be among the contenders but is missing something in my opinion.

Poland have placed themselves in danger and this will be a great case study for the Polish diaspora. I do like the staging a lot but Luna's vocals were by far the weakest of the first half and maybe the whole Semi - Final. Sandwiched between Ukraine and Croatia will have a hard time tomorrow night.

Croatia. There was a problem with the stream and was able to watch just the last minute or so. What I have seen was a much improved version of the Dora staging with Baby Lasagna more confident and vocally fine. The pyros in the end gave the winning moment.

Iceland felt very irrelevant after Croatia and there is nothing Hera could do to turn this one into a qualifier. Simple but nice staging though.

Germany has turned their stage in a cozy living room with a fireplace but Isaak lacks energy in the first half. It gets better by the end but Germany has become relevant again for the last place conversation.

Slovenia recreated the atmosphere from their music video and Raiven is just stunning vocally but this is entry that could work in the 50/50 era and not in a public vote only Semi with Finland coming after them.

Finland has also kept the same concept they had in their national final and it is what it is. A fun three minutes that has nothing else to offer. Would love to oppose them to the qualifying market but don't think they will fail to qualify.

Moldova has been the pleasant surprise of the day and they are back to fight for one of the remaining tickets of the Final. a beautiful backdrop and Natalia's voice make Moldova feel like a credible and quality entry coming after Finland. A huge improvement.

Sweden looks amazing and slick and the boys are getting better as well. Not my cup of tea but I do recognize the staging quality there. This is a serious Top-10 contender for the Final even from the opening slot.

Azerbaijan has a very AI staging that has zero connection to the song, trying to replicate the effectiveness of their '19 gimmick with the robot. There is no reason for someone to pick up the phone and vote for this one.

Australia has many allies in the Semi - Final and a great running order but I felt that their staging was very underwhelming and a tad boring. I have moved them to my non qualifiers list but have not made my mind 100% yet.

Portugal has opted for a minimalistic staging that does work for iOLANDA. The odds for qualification are short but there is no way they are missing the Final.

Luxembourg will be back in the Semi - Final after 31 years! This is a fact. Simple but effective staging and Tali with a more girlie look that suits her better.

Later tonight there will be a new 'Talk About Things' episode talking about tonight's action and of course tomorrow there will be the traditional post with the betting tips for Semi - Final 1.

The last post before everything goes back to zero

 

It is always funny to go back to the previous years and read the posts before and after the Semi - Finals.

Some of the posts have aged nicely like a fine wine while others feel more like a sci-fi film screenplay.

So let's have a look of what happened last week and if there are any changes in the market.

Croatia is the new market leader that emerged during last week, taking back the reigns from Switzerland. 

Rehearsals were fine and what we have seen is a polished version of the Dora staging with Baby Lasagna feeling more comfortable on stage.

I still think that the underdog narrative suits him better, but this could also apply to Croatia that has not won the Contest yet as an independent nation.

Netherlands' rehearsals have solidified Croatia as the most probable public vote winner and there is the notion that Croatia will be the first country after the neighboring trio of France, Switzerland and Italy in the jury voting.

My estimation for Croatia is in the 175-200 threshold that could be more than enough to secure the win.

Switzerland entered the rehearsals as the big favorite and after a few photos and a 30 seconds snippet the verdict was that it feels a bit chaotic and the dress selection is not ideal. I do agree with the second part but need to see the full three minutes to decide on this one.

Losing momentum after the rehearsals have started is not a great sign and remains to be seen if the Swiss have still a hidden ace up their sleeves.

They have also lost their momentum as the probable Jury winner with France being their main rival and this does not look good either.

Ukraine is the biggest 'winner' of last week reminding people that if there is one country that knows how to properly stage their entries and get the maximum out of them is Ukraine.

Ukraine has established their position somewhere in Top-4 and remains to be seen how high they can reach.

I am still very skeptical about their winning path. I currently have them 5th-6th (165-125 pts) with the Juries and 3rd-4th (215-185 pts) with the public vote.

There is the narrative about the diaspora that propelled an average song last year to finish sixth in the end and 'Teresa & Maria' is more powerful and could finish higher.

I do agree and it will finish higher, however I still have my doubts. I do think that Ukraine could maybe finish  second in the public vote with approximately 250 pts but Juries will keep them short enough from the first place. 

They really need to boost their public vote score to have a chance.

Italy is trying, unsuccessfully so far, to create a momentum. Every time that they have gained some traction, something emerges and they linger around the fourth place.

They gained a momentum after Netherlands fell short and next day Ukraine came to take the spot. My objection about Italy, and I might be wrong, is that it feels like the perfect default winner: an entry that cannot win any constituency but could be near the top with both. 

That might be the case, but at the same time the Jury top implies that we will have a Top-3 between 200-250 points and Italy is the least secured of the leading trio to finish there. 

The same applies to the public vote. Croatia and Ukraine are a step ahead of them, Netherlands has lost some steam but their televote will still be impressive and big enough to pass Italy and we also have the x factors like Israel, Switzerland and Greece that could move Italy further down. 

What we have seen in the 30 seconds snippet is not worrying of course but also has not elevated the entry somehow to consider them either a Jury or Public vote winner.

The fact that Switzerland is still above them in odds after all the criticism about their staging says something about Italy's potential as well.

I do think that they have opted for the serious/contender approach that tones down the fun elements of the song.

After the leading pack there is another group of entries that are either emerging (France, Ireland), are more or less where they used to be a week ago (Israel) or lost most of their hype (Netherlands)

Netherlands is by far the biggest 'loser' of last week but I do think that this was a market correction after a few weeks of heavy promo and creating hype that lead to their odds' drift. I still find their odds short keeping in mind that they will struggle with Juries heavy time, estimating 50-75 jury points at the moment. 

I do think that they have taken a calculated risk to boost their entry before rehearsals and reach number one by the time of the Semi - Finals but it has not produced the results they were expecting.

We need the three minutes staging to properly assess this one and could still be in contention for the public vote win, but the big bird on stage is a jury red flag.

People gradually realize that France could be the Jury winner and they are still behind the leading pack in public vote but Slimane could actually score better than people might think. 

Ireland is the other big 'winner' of the week and I wonder if they will reach single digit odds in case they qualify and they get a second half draw. 

It has been a month since I posted my estimations about the winner here. And I am more than happy to enter the Contest with that estimation, having projected Switzerland and Croatia as my Top-2, Italy and Ukraine were my default winners' tier two and then Netherlands, France and Israel following. This could very well be the Final's Top-7 and I will be thrilled with that outcome.

I do think that this is a very good sign that I am heading to the right direction this year. The only thing that has changed since then is that I am more confident for Croatia to win.

This is my current winner and the less vulnerable of the ones leading the odds.

Regarding the two Semi - Finals there are a few changes but nothing ground breaking so far. 

In Semi - Final 1 I do think that the final qualification spot will be between Serbia and Australia while in Semi - Final 2 things have become more complicated. There are at least thirteen or fourteen entries which they have an actual chance to qualify and that is very exciting, offering great values both for shock qualifiers and non qualifiers.

As of today, I will be posting my thoughts on X during the dress rehearsals and of course at the end of the day there will be a synopsis of the day from the dress rehearsals and the jury shows.

You will also have the special posts with the betting tips and my estimations for the Semi - Finals and the Final and of course new episodes of your favorite Eurovision podcast Talk About Things with Matt Rickard and Panos Zannettos.

 

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Latvia

First Thoughts:

Has the time come for Latvia to finally return to the Final for the first time since 2016?

Luck was not on their side when the allocation draw happened a few months ago.

EBU tried to help by placing Latvia early on the second half to keep them as far away possible from the public vote magnets that are stuck in the closing of the Semi - Final.

'Hollow' was Latvia's best chance from Supernova's lineup and its music video and studio version are competent enough. It is an accessible power ballad that does have an audience.

The biggest problem has been the staging and Don's connection with the camera.

In theory the quality of the song should have been enough for the qualification but there is some tough competition with Denmark and Belgium fighting for the points coming from their common target group.

Current odds and polls are against it but for the moment it still has a chance to qualify but remains to be seen if it has enough on stage to take the attention away from Dons because he is not engaging enough with the camera.

I do have him on my qualifying list, but he could be the first one to miss out next week.

If they make it to the Final though, Latvia could achieve a mid-table result achieving a great score with the Juries that could propel them close to the Top-10.

Televoting Potential: 5/10

Jury Potential: 9/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 35/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1-0.2%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 30-55

F: J: 50-150 - PV: 25-50 - Tot: 75-200

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Latvia is borderline that could go both ways. There is value on its current price to qualify but it needs many things to go its way.

Not written off yet but it will be tough.

 

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Armenia

 

First Thoughts:

Ladaniva have been among the biggest 'winners' of the pre-parties season.

An excellent choice from Armenia that will bring lots of energy on stage.

'Jako' is not a sophisticated song, it is made to come alive on stage and get the crowd going.

I don't know if it could reach the 'Trenuletul' levels of public vote but it is a locked Top-10 with that constituency.

Eurojury has also been kind to them so if these results get replicated next week, we might have a solid Top-10 candidate. 

The Semi - Final will not be a problem for them and remains to be seen who will do better between them and Greece that is also fishing in the same pond genre wise and also the same geographic area for the higher points.

I do think that a left-hand side result is almost certain and Armenia will have one of the wildest reactions from the crowd.

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 9/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8.5/10

Total: 41/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1-0.5%

Best case scenario:

Top-6/8

Worst case scenario:

14th-16th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 90-120

F: J: 30-90 - PV: 75-175 - Tot: 105-265

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Armenia sailing to the Final and then, depending on the running order, getting a result near the Top-10. 

9th-12th is where I currently have them. 

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Denmark

 

First Thoughts:

Denmark has taken a few steps back when it comes to its national final the last decade.

They do have one of the best produced finals which at the same time produces weak Eurovision finalists.

Saba was the best thing that they had this year and she managed to win DMGP thanks to her jury performance.

The problem is that the Juries will not be there in the Semi - Final and Denmark will have to dig deeper to find the 45-55 points that would secure them a spot in the Final.

'Sand' is a radio friendly entry that could struggle to stand out in a lineup with so many public vote oriented entries. 

Saba is a very talented and competent performer and she is the main selling point of the song. 

Qualification is not out of the question but the lack of allies in the Semi, along with the running order is making things complicated.

In order to secure a place in the Final she will need to leave behind her both Latvia and Belgium. 

Currently I have Denmark as a borderline non qualifier on my list with something like 45% vs 55%.

If Saba makes it to the Final though, a mid table result is within reach expecting a Top-10 or near Top-10 result with the Juries and a few public vote points from neighbors and friends.

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 8.5/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 35/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Mid-table result (13th-18th)

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 30-60

F: J: 30-75 - PV: 10-30 - Tot: 40-105

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Denmark finishing 11th-12th in the Semi - Final being single digit short from the qualification threshold.

Happy to reconsider their fate next week when we will have more about their staging.

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Austria

 

First Thoughts:

Austria has been one of the fans' favorites the past three years with minimum returns in terms of actual results.

'We Will Rave' has all the elements to do well in theory with both constituencies and has a decent studio version but there are so many red flags there that just qualifying to the Final might be tricky.

I am not convinced that the song suits Kaleen and the pre-parties suggested that there are issues with the vocals as well.

Austria's running order is not bad in theory but the problem is that there is Greece and Switzerland before them and Armenia just a few songs after them plus the public vote magnets of the second half and suddenly Austria is the most vulnerable of the fast tempo entries.

Its current odds are still short and I do remember a similar approach to Halo back in '22 when it was trading odds on and still failed to qualify, not being in the Top-10 of public vote either.

If they make it to the Final, last place is a possibility.

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 31/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Qualification and then Bottom-5 in Final

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 20-50

F: J: 5-20 - PV: 0-20 - Tot: 5-40

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Austria not qualifying with another car crash live performance. Competition is high in this Semi - Final and comparisons will  be made.

Austria simply does not have enough to secure the qualification threshold.

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Albania

 

First Thoughts:

Albania is probably the trickier mystery to solve. Before the revamp, the song was a classic Albanian entry with a few western elements. 

After the allocation draw for the Semi - Final with Albania having almost all of its diaspora and friends voting to the same Semi - Final, I moved them to my qualifiers list.

Then we have had the revamp and the announcement of the running order and Albania went back to the borderline list.

The main problem with the revamp is that it is in English and Besa risks alienating herself from the diaspora risking for some extra points.

The running order is not a big problem for them because it is the diaspora that will decide for its fate. If they are behind Besa, the 45-55 points needed could be found. 

Albania is traditionally a borderline country when it comes to qualifications with the last five all coming in the 8th-10th threshold and I expect a similar result if they qualify. 

I do have have them in my NQ list but I have to wait for the Jury show to call this one.

If they make it to the Final though, a mid-table result could happen with a a decent amount of points coming from the Juries as well. 16th-22nd in that case.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 32.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Mid-table result in Final

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 25-55

F: J: 25-50 - PV: 25-75 - Tot: 50-125

What do I see in my crystal ball?

I still cannot decide for Albania but I will go for the 11th-12th in the Semi - Final, paying the price of a very loaded Public vote oriented Semi - Final.

I am open to reconsider my position though by next week.

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Malta

 

First Thoughts:

There are a few entries every year that you know from the day they win their national final that their destiny (no pun intended) is predetermined.

'Loop' was chosen by a very abnormal 82% Jury - 18% Public vote system to represent Malta in a 100% Public vote Semi - Final...

Getting the opening slot makes little difference and Malta will be long forgotten by the time we reach Italy, Israel and Netherlands.

The only doable goal for this year would be to avoid the last place in the Semi - Final but even that is a tough ask.

Malta historically suffers with the Public vote and in a loaded Semi - Final like this one there is simply no way to find the points needed.

Maybe it is time to try a different approach next year.

Televoting Potential: 3/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 23/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.0001%

Best case scenario:

Avoid last place in Semi - Final

Worst case scenario:

Last place in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 0-15

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Malta finishing last in Semi - Final with seven points...

Semi - Final 2 - The Pre-Rehearsals Power Rankings...Euro-pa-pa

 

When the allocation draw happened back in late January, Semi - Final 1 and especially its first half was considered a bloodbath and Semi - Final 2 was meant to be the 'weak' Semi on paper.

Fast forward three months later and this is one of the strongest Semi - Finals we have had for a while. 

Two contenders (Switzerland, Netherlands), three if Italy is also included, and seven or eight Top-10 candidates with France and Italy included. 

That sums it up. The other difference between the two Semi - Finals is that here we have a much stronger lineup and with the exception of Malta and maybe Czechia and San Marino, there are at least thirteen, I say fourteen, contenders for the ten spots.

I will use tiers to separate the entries based on their dynamics and I will start with tier 1 that has only one country.

1. Netherlands

Having the pimp slot and being the entry that could possibly win the Public Vote in Final says it all. There is strong competition but Netherlands should have a lead big enough to win in style.

I will be surprised if Netherlands somehow does not make it, and we might not know the results until the end of the Contest but this, will be a very bad omen for their winning chances. 

The Dutch delegation and media are setting the bar too high when it comes to the staging and it remains to be seen if they will deliver.

2. Israel

The 'winner' of the Eurojury results, even though they finished 7th. It was a wake up call for those still under the impression that Israel will get buried by the Juries and will not stand a chance. 

I will not overanalyze the Eurojury results, but the points Israel received were by just thirteen juries. The biggest unknown of this season is how big will Israel's Public vote be and if it could be enough for a Top-4/5 result.

I reckon that the diaspora will be there to support them and it could land them a very decent result.

There is a chance though that Israel flops completely and could finish mid-table but this is not where I currently have them.

3. Switzerland

The country that leads the odds just third in its Semi - Final? It has never happened before to have a Eurovision winner finishing outside the Top-2 in a Semi - Final so that could mean two things: Either Switzerland will write history or will not win Eurovision. 

Performing at #4 is not very helpful for their chances to win the Semi, but that slot has two third places in Public vote only results since 2014.

If Switzerland finishes higher, it will be an impressive achievement to be honest. This is an entry that has lots of staging potential and remains to be seen how high they can go.

4. Greece

Another question mark, one more out of the box entry that I expect to do really well with the Public vote but for the moment I am cautious with its Jury reception. 

The running order is not ideal on a first glance but it is basically the actual opener of the Semi - Final. Will not be surprised if they end up in Top-3 in the Semi. 

There are some friends there as well to help their cause.

5. Armenia

The difference between Armenia and Greece is that the first one is catchier and more instant and that means that the crowd and the audience will engage instantly. 

The running order is optimal getting the first half pimp slot and in the middle of two slow tempo entries.

Sailing to the Final!

6. Norway

Has Norway blossomed too early in the national finals season and most people forgot about them? Is it an overestimated entry?

I still think there is room for Norway to grow a la Denmark '18 and be on track for a Top-10 result. 

Sailing to the Final.

7. Georgia

Georgia has really grown on me and has moved up from a borderline non qualifier to an almost certain qualifier on my list.

They do deserve to qualify for the first time since 2016 and  EBU has been kind to them with their running order keeping enough distance from the very packed end of the Semi - Final.

The seven countries mentioned above are my certain qualifiers from this Semi - Final and now we are entering the crowded tier 3. There are six countries here, potentially seven that have a case for the qualification.

8. Estonia

Pure fun entry that thrives in a Public vote only environment. The staging felt a bit chaotic in their national final and this is the reason why Estonia is not higher in the pack of the televote magnets.

It is not yet a certain qualifier but is heading to that direction.

9. Belgium

Now we are entering the grey area. Belgium is the ideal candidate to become the shocker non qualifier. A have a very big lay on them before the pre-parties started and I do have them qualifying for the moment because I need to see the TV feed before my final judgement. 

The studio version of the song is ok but the lives so far are lacking the energy and the charisma for Belgium to be a Top-10 candidate in the Final.

I am leaning towards a Sennek result back in 2018.

10. Latvia

Everything is against them, a very competitive Semi - Final, stuck in the middle between Armenia and San Marino.

Dons has the voice and the song is decent, however the staging needs to be perfect for them to stand out. 

Quality alone should help their cause but the competition will be tough. 

11. Albania

One more borderline year for Albania. In theory they do have the friends and allies to secure them enough points for the qualification but appearing in the death slot (#2) in a Semi - Final with a nineteen countries lineup and an English revamp that is not great might shatter their hopes.

If the diaspora is ok with the English revamp then Albania might be fine but I am not ready yet to move them to the qualifiers.

12. Czechia

That might be a surprise for you but Czechia has improved and the revamp is better than the original version. 

Aiko appearing after France might be a setback for their chances but if they bring enough energy on stage then impossible is nothing.

It could definitely gain traction if Austria underperforms as it is expected.

13. Denmark

Saba is a great vocalist that goes to Eurovision with a very indifferent song that could be someone's seventh or eighth choice and this is a problem when it comes to the voting.

It is a radio friendly song that will struggle to distinguish itself from the competition. 

It is not written off yet but the chances are not with them.

14. Austria

I know that many people will be surprised by seeing Austria that low I could not ignore all the red flags around this entry since the beginning of the season.

Add to that Austria's recent history of creating high hopes and expectations and then disappoint when it matters and we have the perfect mix for a Halo 2.0.

The song works in the studio version but the pre-parties and the other live versions suggest that Austria is heading for a car crush.

The running order does not help either with Greece and Switzerland setting the pace before them and Armenia coming after them, plus all the other big guns at the end of the second half. 

Even Czechia could steal some of Austria's thunder. I already have a big lay placed on them and I do believe there is still value there.

15. San Marino

We are entering the twilight zone now but I do think that San Marino is not yet 100% written off. Appearing after Spain and having a secured set of 12 points from them and maybe some more from Italy, they might get lucky be near the qualification threshold if they can secure 25-30 points getting the low 1s-4s from some countries.

16. Malta

This is the only entry that I consider 100% hopeless. Opening the Semi - Final that has 19 entries with the automatic qualifiers included and being Malta that historically struggles with the Public vote is the recipe for disaster.

My guess is that Malta will finish last in Semi - Final for a second year in a row.

And that is a wrap. This will be a very competitive Semi - Final, something that we have missed last year and it will be very interesting to see who will be left behind after the Semi and who will get the boost and hype to lead the odds after next Thursday.

I do expect that this power ranking might look a bit different by next Wednesday when I will have the chance to see the Jury show.

This is also the Semi - Final that presents more betting opportunities either with shock qualifiers or shock non qualifiers. 

I have mentioned in my betting resolution for 2024 the second Semi - Final paradox when it comes to my tips in the last few editions and I do hope this will be my redemption year.

Good luck with your predictions and bets! I will continue my previews in the next few days to finish the presentation of the whole lineup and there will be new episodes of our  TalkAboutThings podcast.

Stay tuned!

Semi Final 1 - The Pre-Rehearsals Power Rankings...Meow

 

Here we are! The Eurojury results dust has not settled yet and rehearsals are on the way. 

Like every year I will be sharing my Pre-Rehearsals Power Ranking for each Semi - Final, using these posts as a picture of the moment.

Everything we knew so far might be a distant memory in just ten days time.

So let's begin our journey with Semi - Final 1. This Semi is very first half oriented with almost all the competitive entries performing there.

Odds imply that all seven acts will qualify to the Final, something that has never happened before. In fact there has not been a Semi - Final yet where the first four songs all qualified.

On the other hand, if there is a Semi - Final in 100 years that 7/7 qualifications could happen in the first half this should be it.

Currently I am leaning on a 6/7. The drop of quality between the two halves is more than apparent and I struggle to find more than three entries that deserve to qualify from that half.

So here are my Rankings before we see any of the staging.

1. Croatia

Baby Lasagna is entering rehearsals being second in odds and also one of the favorites to win the Public Vote. He was given the best slot of the first half, implying that producers do agree with its favoritism. 

To win the SF at 1.47 has no value in my opinion but this is by far the strongest scenario.

Croatia needs a strong performance to create some hype around them. If they can do that the sky is the limit.

2. Ukraine

The other Top-3/5 contender that performs in the Semi - Final. Ukraine has quietly lost some ground during the last two months but nothing is over yet.

Ukraine always delivers and it remains to be seen if they can get back on track to be considered a contender. 

Not finishing in Top-2 would be a huge surprise.

Croatia and Ukraine are the first tier of this Semi - Final and I fail to find a country that could sneak into the Top-2.

3. Finland

I could make a case both for Lithuania and Ireland to be in that spot, but having the Top-3 coming from the first half on a 100% Public vote Semi - Final is too much.

Finland could and will be irrelevant in the Final, but could have the time to shine in this Semi. It has happened very often in the past and it could happen again.

I do find the odds for the Top-3 at 1.82 short though.

4. Lithuania

They have lost a bit of their hype and energy that they had two months ago and the Eurojury result did not help either.

However this is one of the slickest entries that could attract votes from all over Europe and the Lithuanian diaspora will always be there to help.

Top-3 in Semi - Final is at 2.54, fair but statistically improbable.

5. Ireland

The first of all witches. Bambie Thug had one of the most successful pre-parties season and is coming to rehearsals with an extra boost of confidence.

If RTE can finally make a decent staging then they are sailing to the Final. Having UK performing after them will give them some additional points.

6. Poland

An entry that is flying under the radar the whole season but could definitely secure a mid-table result in Final. 

Diaspora and friends will be there to secure the qualification. Wouldn't be surprised if they end up in Top-3.

Those four countries are my second tier in the Semi - Final and now I am moving in the third tier.

7. Cyprus

The ideal opener for the Semi - Final. Cyprus has mastered their staging in this type of entries and I expect a similar result.

Enough for them to secure the qualification but will struggle in the Final. 

8. Luxembourg 

The pimp slot and the return after thirty one years could be enough for them to qualify. They are missing the majority of their allies and that could be a problem. 

It remains to be seen if Tali is comfortable enough with the revamp version of her song. 

The qualifying odds are too short in my opinion.

These are my 8 certain qualifiers and now we are entering tier 3 with three entries that will fight for the two remaining tickets.

9. Australia

One of the few entries that we have not seen live yet and I think that the Aussies will serve us an amazing staging that will secure them the qualification. 

Running order will help them and gives them the upper hand.

10. Portugal

My heart and mind says Serbia, but my analyst self cannot process the fact that all seven entries from first half will qualify and for that reason only I give Portugal the last ticket.

'Grito' deserves a place in the Final as well and could do very well with the Juries. Having the penultimate slot is a great advantage for a nation that usually struggles with the Public vote.

11. Serbia

Running order is its main problem. It has some friends in the Semi to secure 12-18 points but they will need to find 30-35 more.

Everything will come down to the staging. If the can offer the wow moment then the ticket could be theirs.

And now moving to the tier 4 with the no-hopers. I will be surprised if any of them makes it to the Final.

12. Moldova

They might get a few low points here and there but not enough to secure a place in the Final.

13. Slovenia

A great performer with a not so great song that will be lost in the the crowd and has no target group.

14. Azerbaijan

Another entry that is made for no one. I think that Azerbaijan has given up on Eurovision and this entry makes it very clear.

15. Iceland

The weakest entry of all stacked after Croatia. The first toilet break of the Semi.

Of course rehearsals might shake things up but I do think we have 11 entries fighting for the 10 tickets.

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Luxembourg

 

First Thoughts:

This is the first time I am writing a review about Luxembourg and I am so excited about their return in the Contest.

They have organized a great national final in terms of production which was not bad for a first attempt.

Tali won with 'Fighter' and she will be fighting for a spot in the Grand Final after thirty one years.

EBU and producers played their part giving Luxembourg the pimp slot in the Semi - Final to boost its chances.

When I first heard the song was not exactly impressed but I did find it competitive enough to qualify and get a decent amount of points to finish somewhere in the middle.

After hearing the revamp Ι am not so sure about that any more. In theory Luxembourg is a certain qualifier, but I do find its current odds very short and would be tempted to bet against them if Portugal and Australia up their game in rehearsals.

I get the feeling that the song does not suit Tali and that might cost them some points. 

My other major concern is that Luxembourg is missing all of its allies and does not have any secured points with the exception of those coming from Germany.

I am aware that the second half of this Semi is very low quality and the pimp slot is there to boost its chances but Luxembourg is gradually slipping to my borderline list.

If in the Final, anything better than a Bottom-5 result would be a great start for Luxembourg to build on it for the future.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 33.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01%-0.1%

Best case scenario:

Top-15

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 40-70

Final: Js: 25-75 - TV: 15-30 - Total: 40-105

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Luxembourg making it to the Final, get an early draw somewhere between #3-#6 and finish 20th which would be fair for them.

Could they become the first pimp slot entry after 2017 (Latvia) that fails to qualify? Probably not but not impossible.

You can hear my thoughts about Luxembourg in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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My betting resolution for 2024 and a ghost from the past

 

When I started this blog back in 2019 the reason behind it was to have  my thought process during the season documented somewhere to go back and check myself for future reference.

Two hundred plus posts later, this will be the fifth contest that I will be covering and the first one with an Online Media Accreditation so I am curious to see if something will be different this year when it comes to my estimations and predictions.

I have checked my track record in both fields (estimations/predictions, betting tips) to check my progress through the years and these are the results.

Semi - Final Qualifiers

I will start my analysis of the past with my Semi - Final predictions regarding the qualifiers.

'19: 16/20 (7-9)

'21: 16/20 (8-8)

'22: 16/20 (9-7)

'23: 19/20 (10-9)

There is an improvement here that mostly has to do with the voting system, making it easier to predict the Top-10 with just one constituency instead of two. 

I always set as a minimum for myself to get 8/10 correct qualifiers and I can say that I am overall satisfied with the outcome.

I was very close last year to have a perfect 20/20, having Estonia 11th on my list and Greece qualifying!

The total score is 67/80.

Winners

We will always have Ukraine '22 to remind us/me that we can get it wrong. A bizarre year that will always be used as a case study. 

I am proud for the other three calls, especially with my analysis for Italy '21 win where I predicted the point margins for both constituencies and total as well.

Score: 3/4 and I highly anticipate this year where things are more complicated and interesting so far.

Top-3 

This one was a surprise for me having 2/3 correct predictions in all four editions so far. The main reason for this one, that is also apparent in my betting tips and will try to resolve this year (see below to resolution), is that I do overestimate the power of a country emerging after the Semi - Finals (Switzerland '19) or the power of some Jury magnets (Malta '21, Spain '23).

I think I have found the solution to that problem in my Know your Numbers 2024 Edition where it is obvious that the Top-3 consists of two Public vote magnets and just one Jury and not the other way around.

Total Score: 8/12

Top-5

There has been some improvement here as well, starting with 2/5 back in '19 and getting 4/5 in the other editions.

is it time for a 5/5? Maybe...

Total Score: 14/20

Top-10

There have been some ups and downs in this one.

'19: 7/10

'21: 9/10

'22: 8/10

'23: 7/10

Overall is not a bad result with the ones missing out being most of the times just outside the Top-10. I do set as a minimum though getting 8/10 so I am slightly below my average.

Total Score: 31/40

And now the most interesting part, my betting tips analysis!

Units invested and ROI

I will start with the bigger picture which is the total amount of units invested in the previous four years and the ROI.

Units Invested: 4132.7

Units Returned: 5330.8

ROI: 29%

Betting Tips: 19/64 29.7% (19/56 33.9% if fan bets are deducted)

Average odds per winning betting tip: 2.72

The good news is that there is 29% ROI with a very mediocre 29.7% of successful tips. The average odds per winning betting tip is also higher than I expected at 2.72 with just nine tips having odds lower than 2.00.

Breaking down the investment on a yearly basis gives the following results

'19 Units Invested: 629.4 - Units Returned: 487.4 - ROI: -22.6% - Betting Tips: 5/16

'21 Units Invested: 1191 - Units Returned: 1344.1 - ROI: 12.9% - Betting Tips: 5/15

'22 Units Invested: 1226.7 - Units Returned: 1328.7 - ROI: 8.3% - Betting Tips: 6/21

'23 Units Invested: 1085.6 - Units Returned: 2098.6 - ROI: 93.3% - Betting Tips: 3/12

It is very obvious that last year was the most profitable of all and that is thanks to a change that I have made on my betting strategy. The most impressive stat in my opinion is that last year I have almost doubled my investment having only 25% accuracy on my tips, but these winning tips did have the majority of the units invested on them.

Last year I have decided to reduce the amount of bets and invest more units in odds that do have the higher value. 

And now the breakdown that astonished me. I have checked my performance based on the Semi - Final 1/2 tips and the Grand Final and there is an elephant in the room.

Semi - Final 1: Units Invested: 500 - Units Returned: 861.9 - ROI: 72.4% - Betting Tips: 8/16

Semi - Final 2: Units Invested: 590 - Units Returned: 89.4 - ROI: -84.8% - Betting Tips: 2/16

Grand Final : Units Invested: 3042.7 - Units Returned: 4379.5 - ROI: 43.9% - Betting Tips: 9/32

The difference between Semi - Final 1 and Semi - Final is mind blowing. In fact the only two successful tips date back to 2019! 

Is there a reason behind that huge discrepancy? I do think that there is. Semi - Final 1 usually takes more focus and attention before and during rehearsals while Semi - Final 2 it gets a bit lost/forgotten, especially when rehearsals kick in with almost a week between their second rehearsal and the dress rehearsal.

The other explanation is that my tips for Semi - Final 2 tend to be a bit more riskier. 

My betting strategy for 2024

After examining my data I have decided to change some things again to improve my performance and my ROI. 

Compared to my personal books, which are open for two to three months every season, the ROI of my betting tips is almost half. My twenty year average ROI on betting in Eurovision is approximately 65%, having six seasons with 100%+ and only two losing seasons back in 2010 and 2011.

The first major change is about the number of tips per Semi - Final and Grand Final. I have decided to reduce them further aiming for a maximum of three per Semi - Final and a maximum of four for the Final.

My aim is to have a 50% accuracy that would automatically increase my ROI to 100%+ There were many tips in the past years that did have some value of course but were more of a stretch. 

I will try to minimize the risk and opt for safer bets, reducing the bets with very long odds that have not been that successful in the past.

I mentioned before that I have tipped only nine bets with odds shorter than 2.00, with the shorter odds being 1.61. 

I do not intend to go for shorter odds, unless there is no value elsewhere in a Semi - Final.

The Book for 2024

The format of my book will be the same as in previous years. 1000 units, 100 per Semi - Final, with the returned units invested again in Semi - Final 2 and/or Final if necessary, and 800 units allocated for the Final.

There will be a small change in my strategy in the Semi - Finals. I have decided that there is no reason to push my luck if I do not find value in any of the Semi - Finals, so there might be a case that I will not use the full 100 units allocated to each Semi and invest them straight in the Final.

Having a press pass this year will also allow me to go after bigger values during the dress rehearsals and the Jury shows, so watch out for any updates during the Eurovision week. 

I have also noticed a bias I had towards entries that gained some traction after the Semi - Finals and before the Final and overestimated their potential, placing them higher than their actual position (Switzerland '19, Ukraine '21, Israel '23).

The focus this year will be the accuracy.

Next week I will create a post with my book with all my tips for the season, that will be updated every time there is a new tip. There will be tweets to inform you about it.

Do not forget to follow my X account for all updates and the coverage of the Eurovision week. 

Good luck!