Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Luxembourg

 

La poupée monte le son - Laura Thorn

Luxembourg is creating a tradition, organizing its National Final early in the season, opting for a competitive entry that goes under the radar for the whole season, only to show up during the Eurovision week and secure a respectable mid-table result.

This year, they have decided to add some Easter eggs in their entry as well, an homage to France Gall, celebrating the 60th anniversary of her win, using original footage from Eurovision '65.

Good call from Luxembourg trying to establish themselves as a country that will be sending contemporary pop entries, a bit cheesy or vanilla, but no one would expect from a tiny wealthy country to opt for trance or hard rock.

Laura Thorn is a telegenic performer and the staging of 'LPMLS' in the national final gives a rough idea of how this will be staged for Eurovision. The song itself has this kind of fairy pop nostalgia and will  definitely have an audience to back it and secure qualification. Being in the second half of its Semi - Final, which has many low-tempo entries, does help the cause as well.

When in Final, things might be tougher for them in the Public vote but the song has enough to secure a respectable mid to Top-10 result with the Juries. There is a chance that it gets completely lost in the Final though and finishes near the bottom.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Luxembourg securing qualification comfortably and get a balanced mid-table score with both constituencies to finish13th-17th. 

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 37/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.3%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 60-90

F: J: 50-75 - PV: 30-50 - Tot: 80-125

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Luxembourg repeat last year's successful result?

You can hear my thoughts about Luxembourg in the 2nd episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts 

Spotify

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Luxembourg

 

First Thoughts:

This is the first time I am writing a review about Luxembourg and I am so excited about their return in the Contest.

They have organized a great national final in terms of production which was not bad for a first attempt.

Tali won with 'Fighter' and she will be fighting for a spot in the Grand Final after thirty one years.

EBU and producers played their part giving Luxembourg the pimp slot in the Semi - Final to boost its chances.

When I first heard the song was not exactly impressed but I did find it competitive enough to qualify and get a decent amount of points to finish somewhere in the middle.

After hearing the revamp Ι am not so sure about that any more. In theory Luxembourg is a certain qualifier, but I do find its current odds very short and would be tempted to bet against them if Portugal and Australia up their game in rehearsals.

I get the feeling that the song does not suit Tali and that might cost them some points. 

My other major concern is that Luxembourg is missing all of its allies and does not have any secured points with the exception of those coming from Germany.

I am aware that the second half of this Semi is very low quality and the pimp slot is there to boost its chances but Luxembourg is gradually slipping to my borderline list.

If in the Final, anything better than a Bottom-5 result would be a great start for Luxembourg to build on it for the future.

Televoting Potential: 6.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 6/10

My Opinion: 7/10

Total: 33.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.01%-0.1%

Best case scenario:

Top-15

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 40-70

Final: Js: 25-75 - TV: 15-30 - Total: 40-105

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Luxembourg making it to the Final, get an early draw somewhere between #3-#6 and finish 20th which would be fair for them.

Could they become the first pimp slot entry after 2017 (Latvia) that fails to qualify? Probably not but not impossible.

You can hear my thoughts about Luxembourg in the Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Soundcloud