Some of the posts have aged nicely like a fine wine while others feel more like a sci-fi film screenplay.
So let's have a look of what happened last week and if there are any changes in the market.
Croatia is the new market leader that emerged during last week, taking back the reigns from Switzerland.
Rehearsals were fine and what we have seen is a polished version of the Dora staging with Baby Lasagna feeling more comfortable on stage.
I still think that the underdog narrative suits him better, but this could also apply to Croatia that has not won the Contest yet as an independent nation.
Netherlands' rehearsals have solidified Croatia as the most probable public vote winner and there is the notion that Croatia will be the first country after the neighboring trio of France, Switzerland and Italy in the jury voting.
My estimation for Croatia is in the 175-200 threshold that could be more than enough to secure the win.
Switzerland entered the rehearsals as the big favorite and after a few photos and a 30 seconds snippet the verdict was that it feels a bit chaotic and the dress selection is not ideal. I do agree with the second part but need to see the full three minutes to decide on this one.
Losing momentum after the rehearsals have started is not a great sign and remains to be seen if the Swiss have still a hidden ace up their sleeves.
They have also lost their momentum as the probable Jury winner with France being their main rival and this does not look good either.
Ukraine is the biggest 'winner' of last week reminding people that if there is one country that knows how to properly stage their entries and get the maximum out of them is Ukraine.
Ukraine has established their position somewhere in Top-4 and remains to be seen how high they can reach.
I am still very skeptical about their winning path. I currently have them 5th-6th (165-125 pts) with the Juries and 3rd-4th (215-185 pts) with the public vote.
There is the narrative about the diaspora that propelled an average song last year to finish sixth in the end and 'Teresa & Maria' is more powerful and could finish higher.
I do agree and it will finish higher, however I still have my doubts. I do think that Ukraine could maybe finish second in the public vote with approximately 250 pts but Juries will keep them short enough from the first place.
They really need to boost their public vote score to have a chance.
Italy is trying, unsuccessfully so far, to create a momentum. Every time that they have gained some traction, something emerges and they linger around the fourth place.
They gained a momentum after Netherlands fell short and next day Ukraine came to take the spot. My objection about Italy, and I might be wrong, is that it feels like the perfect default winner: an entry that cannot win any constituency but could be near the top with both.
That might be the case, but at the same time the Jury top implies that we will have a Top-3 between 200-250 points and Italy is the least secured of the leading trio to finish there.
The same applies to the public vote. Croatia and Ukraine are a step ahead of them, Netherlands has lost some steam but their televote will still be impressive and big enough to pass Italy and we also have the x factors like Israel, Switzerland and Greece that could move Italy further down.
What we have seen in the 30 seconds snippet is not worrying of course but also has not elevated the entry somehow to consider them either a Jury or Public vote winner.
The fact that Switzerland is still above them in odds after all the criticism about their staging says something about Italy's potential as well.
I do think that they have opted for the serious/contender approach that tones down the fun elements of the song.
After the leading pack there is another group of entries that are either emerging (France, Ireland), are more or less where they used to be a week ago (Israel) or lost most of their hype (Netherlands)
Netherlands is by far the biggest 'loser' of last week but I do think that this was a market correction after a few weeks of heavy promo and creating hype that lead to their odds' drift. I still find their odds short keeping in mind that they will struggle with Juries heavy time, estimating 50-75 jury points at the moment.
I do think that they have taken a calculated risk to boost their entry before rehearsals and reach number one by the time of the Semi - Finals but it has not produced the results they were expecting.
We need the three minutes staging to properly assess this one and could still be in contention for the public vote win, but the big bird on stage is a jury red flag.
People gradually realize that France could be the Jury winner and they are still behind the leading pack in public vote but Slimane could actually score better than people might think.
Ireland is the other big 'winner' of the week and I wonder if they will reach single digit odds in case they qualify and they get a second half draw.
It has been a month since I posted my estimations about the winner here. And I am more than happy to enter the Contest with that estimation, having projected Switzerland and Croatia as my Top-2, Italy and Ukraine were my default winners' tier two and then Netherlands, France and Israel following. This could very well be the Final's Top-7 and I will be thrilled with that outcome.
I do think that this is a very good sign that I am heading to the right direction this year. The only thing that has changed since then is that I am more confident for Croatia to win.
This is my current winner and the less vulnerable of the ones leading the odds.
Regarding the two Semi - Finals there are a few changes but nothing ground breaking so far.
In Semi - Final 1 I do think that the final qualification spot will be between Serbia and Australia while in Semi - Final 2 things have become more complicated. There are at least thirteen or fourteen entries which they have an actual chance to qualify and that is very exciting, offering great values both for shock qualifiers and non qualifiers.
As of today, I will be posting my thoughts on X during the dress rehearsals and of course at the end of the day there will be a synopsis of the day from the dress rehearsals and the jury shows.
You will also have the special posts with the betting tips and my estimations for the Semi - Finals and the Final and of course new episodes of your favorite Eurovision podcast Talk About Things with Matt Rickard and Panos Zannettos.
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