Has the time come for Latvia to finally return to the Final for the first time since 2016?
Luck was not on their side when the allocation draw happened a few months ago.
EBU tried to help by placing Latvia early on the second half to keep them as far away possible from the public vote magnets that are stuck in the closing of the Semi - Final.
'Hollow' was Latvia's best chance from Supernova's lineup and its music video and studio version are competent enough. It is an accessible power ballad that does have an audience.
The biggest problem has been the staging and Don's connection with the camera.
In theory the quality of the song should have been enough for the qualification but there is some tough competition with Denmark and Belgium fighting for the points coming from their common target group.
Current odds and polls are against it but for the moment it still has a chance to qualify but remains to be seen if it has enough on stage to take the attention away from Dons because he is not engaging enough with the camera.
I do have him on my qualifying list, but he could be the first one to miss out next week.
If they make it to the Final though, Latvia could achieve a mid-table result achieving a great score with the Juries that could propel them close to the Top-10.
Televoting Potential: 5/10
Jury Potential: 9/10
Staging Potential: 7.5/10
Momentum: 6/10
My Opinion: 7.5/10
Total: 35/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.1-0.2%
Best case scenario:
Top-10
Worst case scenario:
NQ
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 30-55
F: J: 50-150 - PV: 25-50 - Tot: 75-200
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Latvia is borderline that could go both ways. There is value on its current price to qualify but it needs many things to go its way.
Not written off yet but it will be tough.
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